Spin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Apologies to anyone who may have suffered any unpleasantness at the hands of Tasha, however in general terms it seems as if our cyclone season has now gone up a gear or two in Qld waters. A gent by name of Anthony was christened this morning and whilst he is currently heading away from the coast, the overall steering pattern in the Coral sea is expected to do a u turn about Australia Day. Anthony may or may not be back for a visit but the met types are fairly confident that if not him, then his successors in title are almost certain to move west across the ocean and smack into the coast - somewhere! The monsoon trough is very active and they are already tracking another disturbance further out - Bianca perhaps (?) so now might not be a bad time for anyone between Cooktown and Byron Bay to dig out the spare batteries, water bottles, tarps and whatever else you reckon you may need. May they be little ones, pass by quickly and find an uninhabited spot to hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dazza 38 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Knowing our luck ATM which has been good up here on the Gold Coast, it will hit us.We are well over due for one unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farri Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No apologies needed,we all need to be realistic,and the reality is, this time of the year is the cyclone season, and anyone within the cyclone belt, has to accept it and be ready. Yesterday it looked like I`d have to shift the Drifter to higher ground,but the rain eased off over night, and it`s happy where it is,and so am I. At the moment the wind is blowing at 26 to 30 kts off shore from the Cairns area. Here is a BOM cyclone tracking page........ http://reg.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml This is a BOM Costal Weather Observations for Queensland...http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60700.shtml Frank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spin Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 This one unfortunately paints a less friendly picture. Models are notoriously unreliable more than 24-48hrs out, however the important point to note is that by the end of next week, whatever forms out there is going to steer roughly westward - the previous pattern with Zelia, Hamish in previous seasons, where they chuffed off down the coast and then went kiwi - is most likely over for now. [ATTACH]12937.vB[/ATTACH] Edit, site insists on downloading the animated gif as a simple jpeg so it won't play. Anyhow it shows the whirly heading off east before doing a smart about turn and coming back at us around Mackay. I wouldn't bet wages on that landing, but the general idea stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Maj Millard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We have been relativly lucky so far up here in the North, with our share of heavy rain of course, but compared to the rest of the state no major flooding. So...is there a cyclone out there with our name on it ....??? Time will tell.......as Farri says...tis the season !...................................................Maj... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farri Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just went for a fly...........Had to use the strip up near the house,the main strip is flooded again. The Mulgrave river and surrounding areas are flooded,water everywhere,fortunately only farm land being affected. Frank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spin Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Starting to look as though the various forecast models got it about right, Anthony is a cyclone again, heading this way and is supposed to strengthen over the weekend before dropping in for a visit. Best guess atm is Townsville and further north late Sunday/early Monday. Hope your yards are clean and aircraft safely tucked away. And if that isn't enough, Fiji Met and others are keeping an eye on what is likely to become Cyclone Yasi, who, if the various ridges/highs/jetstreams etc behave as forecast, may well come steaming across the Coral Sea and land around the same area at the end of next week! Sheesh, enough now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pudestcon Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Starting to look as though the various forecast models got it about right, Anthony is a cyclone again, heading this way and is supposed to strengthen over the weekend before dropping in for a visit. Best guess atm is Townsville and further north late Sunday/early Monday. Hope your yards are clean and aircraft safely tucked away.And if that isn't enough, Fiji Met and others are keeping an eye on what is likely to become Cyclone Yasi, who, if the various ridges/highs/jetstreams etc behave as forecast, may well come steaming across the Coral Sea and land around the same area at the end of next week! Sheesh, enough now. Definitely the season for it - the South West of WA including Perth is on Cyclone watch for Bianca, quite unusual for a cyclone to come this far down. Pud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poteroo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Shades of Cyclone Alby again in WA. 4/4/79 and it was a shocker accross the SW land division of WA. Bianca's forecast path is even closer to the coast than Alby. The windspeeds are as much due to the cyclone accelerating as it heads south - so expect higher actual winds than the forecast states. We have everything that can be hangared....hangared ! Expect the wind erosion to be severe because we've just had one of our worst droughts. hang on to your hats ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
facthunter Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 We live in interesting times. Nev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winsor68 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Crikey! I am going to get some things ready and leave if it looks remotely like landing near Mackay. You would have to have rocks in your head to sit these things out with your family in my judgement after experiencing just the edge of the last one to cross the coast near here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bones Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 bout time we got a cyclone, we need some rain good time to go flying too, bit of wind always good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winsor68 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well I appreciate humor bones... Please... Not about this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Maj Millard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yes looks like an interesting couple of days coming up ! And Perth has Sunday morning to look foward to also, with their cyclone Bianca. The boys at Shute harbour were looking at what to do with the Cessna Caravans Amphibs, with memories of the damage done to rudder cables during Iloui, when it passed through the Whitsundays last season. The two Beavers are in the main hangar, but there may only be room for one Caravan in another hanger, so two may have to be left out again. We have removed the original rudder gust locks as they are just too damn dangerous, and can easily kill you if you take off with them engaged. We'll have to find some temp way of securing the rudders though for these cyclones . Takes me back to my childhood after a big one went through Townsville, and blew down a large hangar at the RAAF base with a Lincoln bomber in it. Pop took me over in the morning to have a look. It must have been a big Cyclone, as it also blew the roof off the Tully sugar mill the same day, which is about 200 Kls by road to the North ! Will keep you updated through the weekend. Right now forcasts have Anthony headed straight for the Townsville area, and the one behind it..who knows ? There are probabily a good two months at least ahead, of our cyclone season yet....Battern down the hatches Farri !...........Maj... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farri Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Takes me back to my childhood after a big one went through Townsville, and blew down a large hangar at the RAAF base with a Lincoln bomber in it. Pop took me over in the morning to have a look.It must have been a big Cyclone, as it also blew the roof off the Tully sugar mill the same day, which is about 200 Kls by road to the North !....Battern down the hatches Farri !Maj,you`ve taken me back.....My parents,my sister and I weathered that one out,sheltered in the garage that my father ran his buisness out of. The garage was about 500mts,directly opposite the Tully sugar mill and was much stronger built than the shack we lived in at the time so Dad decided we stood a better chance in there.He was right but did we get shaken around!.As it turned out,the old house managed to survive,but the damage around town was bad. A while back,cyclone "Joy" put my Chinook out of action.I stored it for a couple years,untill I decided to re-build it. Frank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bones Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well I appreciate humor bones... Please... Not about this! Windsor, im not joking im flying right just about exactely where they estimate ol mate Anthony to be on monday morning at 4 am, dont think ill both rushing out of bed, or and better remember to tie me ol girl to the tree i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yenn Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I don't know where it is but we are just beginning to feel the effects of it here. Stormy clouds just rolled in and the rain is starting. Doesn't look good for Rocky, they are still recovering from floods and could well be in the path of more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Maj Millard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We're all tidied up here in Townsville waiting for Cyclone Anthony tonight. BOM shows the main rain areas, South of the eye, coming ashore around the Whitsundays and Airlie/Proserpine area about now (4.30 PM Sunday). Mackay is probabily getting good rain also. Anthony is not super big, so I expect it'll peter out quickly after making landfall, but the areas above will get some significant rain tonight. The main bulk is still off the Townsville /Burdekin area, so we may feel some wind tonight. The main worry however is the huge one behind Anthony. About six times as big, and with plenty of time to spin-up and easily become a Cat 5. Will be keeping a close eye on that one !!.....................................................................................................Maj... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spin Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah Maj, I've just been trawling through weatherzone, BoM and a few others - thinking of you blokes. As you pointed out, the second twisted sister is the one to watch out for, she looks plain evil on the sat photos. The scary thing is that BoM and others have called this situation pretty accurately so far and they are confident that Yasi is going to steam straight down our throats and may give the state a good kicking while she is about it. Anyone for another tax levy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
facthunter Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sheeesh! That's a monster out to the east. Hope it doesn't come. Nev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Maj Millard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The BOM 4 day forcast shows Yasi steaming right in behind Anthony, and crossing the coast 10am Thursday. Kinda hope it gets other ideas !!...........................................................................Maj... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winsor68 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 "Outlook for Wednesday 2nd Feb The soon to be named (by Fiji) Tropical Cyclone YASI is expected to be moving much closer to the Queensland coast with increasing winds and heavy rains developing along the coast between about Townsville and Rockampton with a high likelihood of conditions being very bad Wednesday night. THIS CYCLONE WILL BE A VERY INTENSE AND DANGEROUS CYCLONE. Senior Meteorologist XXXXXX XXXX Aviation Meteorological Unit Brisbane Airport" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest studentbiggles Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The BOM 4 day forcast shows Yasi steaming right in behind Anthony, and crossing the coast 10am Thursday. Kinda hope it gets other ideas !!...........................................................................Maj... Keep safe and sound Marj........ we all over here in SA are experiencing heatwave for next few days 40'c plus, God its hot. Thinking of all my flying pals along the coast...........Yasi @##%$#$ off...or calm down. Cheers Alley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bones Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 No i recon bring it on, there is one thing for sure never temp mother nature, she will win everytime, so if you wish this one away,,,,,,, whats next????????, like its only wind and rain, have adrink and forget about it :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Maj Millard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks Alley, We Queenslanders are a tough mob (as long as we don't run out of beer!). I remember how hot it can get in SA from my days at Edinburgh in the RAAF. desert winds from the North I suppose. It's pretty hot here also, when it's not raining....................................................................maj... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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