farri Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 The BOM site shows the centeral pressure remaining at 1000 mlb. If Yasi remains at that pressure,though much larger in total area,I think it should be no worse than Anthony.
Guest Maj Millard Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 Yes I noticed that also Frank, although it's got me buggered how they can predict a systems' pressure three days ahead. Maybe they're better than we think !....It's currently listed as being at 994 Hpa on the 'Ocean warnings from Fiji', so they are off already....................................................................Maj...
farri Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 Computer modeling, Ross......All done by computers.
Spin Posted January 30, 2011 Author Posted January 30, 2011 Hope those seaplanes are still there Maj, sounds as though it got a bit blowy there overnight. Initial reports are that there wasn't too much damage or flooding, hope daylight doesn't reveal too much more. Without selling our friend Anthony short, I am getting rather concerned about Yasi; Cat 2 already, a nice warm Coral Sea in front of her and no current atmospheric obstacles, she could quite easily turn into something highly unpleasant. I'll be watching developments carefully over the next few days, but I'd say there is possibly going to be some evacuation required ahead of her. I was due in T'ville and Ingham for meetings on Thurs - but you know what, I don't really feel the need to be visiting or travelling through that sort of event! I was just looking at some forecast track maps and it is pretty unusual to see how closely the major forecast models agree with one another - there are normally some real funnies amongst them, but this time they all barrel roughly WSW across the Coral Sea and clobber QLD more or less between Ingham and Sarina.
Guest Maj Millard Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 Yes Spin, Anthony came across just North of Bowen but did drop a lot of rain in the Whitsunday area. I'm sure the Amphibs are fine but they may want to relocate them to Perth for the next one !. We didn't get much of anything here in Townsville, just a bit of light rain this morning. You may be wise to delay your trip North at the moment until Yasi does her thing. What was your intended method travel to the North ?.....................................................................Maj...
Spin Posted January 31, 2011 Author Posted January 31, 2011 Hi Maj, commercial unfortunately, followed by hire car. Although there are opportunities in my job for the odd flight, (I even get to use my boat on occasion:cool:), until I buy my own aircraft or get a share with understanding co-owners, it is all too complicated to be practical. I could keep myself gainfully occupied if I were delayed by weather, esp with internet and mobile access, but most hirers wouldn't be too keen:sad:.
pudestcon Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 but they may want to relocate them to Perth for the next one The aircraft might do that all on there own Maj:) Pud
Spin Posted January 31, 2011 Author Posted January 31, 2011 Pud, how did you "westies" fare with Bianca? From the bits I saw she seemed to do a bit of scattered damage coming down the coast, but had faded quite a bit by the time she actually came ashore. Sad about the lass who got electrocuted.
pudestcon Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 G'day Spin, Bianca petered out to nothing, virtually, here in Perth. Some damage was sustained in rural towns due to thunderstorms etc, which were indirectly caused by Bianca - roofs lifted off and trees down. We badly need some decent rain in the SW of WA but Bianca did not provide it, generally. Pud
Guest Maj Millard Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 Pud, If there not secured properly they'll end up somewhere for sure................................................Maj...
Guest ozzie Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 Afternoon Major, i could never understand why WAM would leave the aircraft outside and risk them getting damged. Be too easy to send them inland and wait the cyclone out. Am i missing something?
winsor68 Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 Hey guys and particularly everyone in North Queensland... Please take YASI very seriously. According to the information we have received at work today all computer models are pointing to a CAT4-5 between Ingham and Proserpine early Thursday morning. This is a very deadly and destructive Cyclone with a good possibility of loss of life. For gods sake... and especially if you have kids... leave before Wednesday morning if you are anywhere near these areas... This is no time for bravado and "she'll be rights" if you have kids. I really don't know what to say and I am sure I may be sounding like a bit of a dxxk... I hope I am and it all turns out to be nothing. My family and I are preparing to leave tomorrow morning from Mackay as the possibility of it turning just a little is not something I wish to chance and we are expecting severe flooding anyway. We are heading to my parents place in the South East away from flooding... perhaps overkill but I choose not to chance my 7 year old daughters life. Regards, Winsor68
Spin Posted January 31, 2011 Author Posted January 31, 2011 Sounds like a good call Windsor68, I haven't been through a cyclone myself, but was in Innisfail 2 days after Larry, spending the next 10 days working with the people and structures that had. Truly horrifying, particularly because it isn't something that you can really predict - similar houses only 50-60m apart received vastly different damage, whether thanks to flying debris or imbedded tornadoes I don't know. One was a write off, the other needed some new gutters and flashings! A lot of people were badly shocked and a recurring theme was "I wish I'd known how bad it was going to be, I'd have been long gone if I had". Good luck guys.
Kyle Communications Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html This is a pretty cool NOAA link maybe one to bookmark Mark
winsor68 Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 Message just received from SES... "TC YASI is due to hit QLD coast wed night. those living in low lying coast areas should be concerned about storm surge and relocate on Tues. Check with Local Council" We received this on our mobiles and the land line... I am guessing the whole of North Qld is receiving this message at the moment.
facthunter Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 Good luck people. They are suggesting a 4 meter storm surge at Townsville. Cairns to Mackay area affected. Nev
farri Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 Well guys....Just having a coffee break from prepairing for the blow. At the moment it looks like Deeral is right in the firing line and this property is the first one in line. The area is completely covered in heavy storm cloud but little wind yet. I flew the Drifter to a safer place,early this morning......... If I can,I will keep you all posted on what is occuring. Cheers and all the very best to everyone in the cyclone area.......Stay safe. Frank.
pudestcon Posted February 1, 2011 Posted February 1, 2011 All the best and good luck Farri, and all in the firing line. Pud
Guest studentbiggles Posted February 1, 2011 Posted February 1, 2011 Thinking of you Farri, and all the good folk from the region, God keep you all safe and I hope and pray that not too much damage is done. You sound well and truly prepared for the on slaught of Yasi and your baby is tucked away to a safe place, good thinking..............from the "Boonies" Yren with yet another 40c+ day. Stay Safe Alley.
Guest Maj Millard Posted February 1, 2011 Posted February 1, 2011 Frank, Hope you have that Drifter in a safe place. Looks like you will be at ground zero unless it takes a liking to somewhere else. Yasi certainly looks like a real one to me, so stay safe above all, and enjoy !! Should you and Francis need alternate accomodation, just let me know, there's the house in Ingham, or the one here in Townsville..........Good luck............................Maj...
winsor68 Posted February 1, 2011 Posted February 1, 2011 The Winsors are staying in Mackay at this stage... Looks like Farri is right and its going to knock on his door... We are expecting flooding but that is just par for the course in Mackay so we will stick it out. Ironically it is a beautiful day here at the moment- would be a nice day for flying. Farri... Good luck and we will all be right there with you in spirit as it moves in. Maj's offer of accommodation is extended from Mackay also for yourself or anyone else... plenty of room here if needed. I am guessing that there will be quite a group of us online tonight and tomorrow morning standing in solidarity with our fellow Northerners.
winsor68 Posted February 1, 2011 Posted February 1, 2011 P.S. Have been hearing a lot of talk around the traps about opening house windows during a Cyclone to equalize pressure and keep your house intact. This is a myth and has been debunked... Remember Bernoulli. Please, anyone expecting strong wind... close up tight as a drum. If you let the wind in, it will try to destroy your house and kill you.
facthunter Posted February 1, 2011 Posted February 1, 2011 Flying sheets of roof iron seem amongst the most lethal. Board up the windows on the side you expect the winds to come from. If you are dead in line, you will get it from both directions with a calm in the middle to trick you into going outside. Best of luck . Isn't wednesday night the expected time of arrival? Looks as though it is running along the thermal equator... Nev
Guest Maj Millard Posted February 1, 2011 Posted February 1, 2011 Windsor, Not much to do with Bernoulli, although he may have something to do with the roof actually flying!. Idea is to close all openings on the windy side, and open others on the calm side to minimize pressure build-up in the house, which then wants to blow the roof off. It's also wanting to be sucked off by the high winds going over it of course. During Cyclone 'Althea' in Townsville 1971, we sat on the front porch on the calm side watching all the debris flying vertically down the street (including domestic ducks who had never flown before !). One newly constructed house down the road had it's roof lift off in toto, and then smash into a million bits and dissappear, in front of our eyes. That house was not occupied and closed up tight as a drum. The roof took flight like a wing !. Althea was the last 'big' cyclone to hit the Townsville area, and a lot of building codes were revised because of structural damage caused by it, and also from 'Tracy' in Darwin. Althea was a big, and long cyclone that pounded off and on for hours, and that's what did a lot of damage to structures. As opposed to 'Larry' which hit Innisfail, which was a cat 5 but fast moving. Had it been slower moving innisfail would probabily not be there today. The problem with 'YASI' as I see it , is that it is one of the biggest to hit the east coast, will possibly go a Cat 5, and will cover such a large area of the state. It looks to be about twice the size of 'Althea' from old satilite photos. Having come so far across ocean it'll also be loaded with heaps of rain. Additionally many of the larger structures in Townsville (and Cairns) now, have been constructed since 'Althea" and have never been 'real' cyclone tested so to speak. facthunter is correct in saying one of the biggest dangers is flying sheets of metal, and two people attempting to hammer down roofs during Althea were killed like that........We'll wait and see. Do not go outside once the wind starts to blow !............................................................................Maj...
bones Posted February 1, 2011 Posted February 1, 2011 I just got back from airport helping to tie down agg planes from ingham and further north, it looks like Cairns is the place not to be damn this is gonna hurt
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now