Cyclone Season

[Spin]

Guys, obviously do whatever you think best with your own house, however opening windows on the leeward side is a furphy and potentially dangerous - have a look on BoM under cyclone preparation, it is actively discouraged. A number of studies have been done on this over the years and I've yet to read one based on scientific evidence that pushes this approach. I'll dig out a couple of references later.

 

Frank, seems the bulls eye has shifted right over you guys - can you not rather move out or are you happy that your place is up to it?

 

Cheers Carl

 

 

[biggles]

Frank ,

 

There seems no doubt that this one will be the ' mother of all cyclones ' and that pretty winter paradise of yours is set to cop a hiding . Can only echo Spins comments/concerns that maybe a fast trip South may well be in order . Anyway, whatever considered course of action you decide to take, we wish you well .

 

Bob

 

 

[Guest Maj Millard]

Latest Infrared of Yasi............................................Maj...

 

Spin, We had hundreds of so-called cyclone experts through here in past years. Usually from Southern Unis and the only cyclones they have ever seen, have been on their computer screens.

 

They are also the 'experts' who have allowed hundreds of new-built homes to be roofed with Sydney style roof tiles, here in the North. This will prove to be a huge mistake.........................................................Maj...

 

 

 

[Guest Maj Millard]

And by the way, is Yasi male or female. Guess we'll know tomorrow weather she's a bitch or not !?......................Maj...

 

 

[Guest ozzie]

WOW. The TV says the Sunrise Team are embedded in the cyclone area, "live" tomorrow morning. I just can't wait! Seems they now have 'disasters' down pat.

 

 

[Spin]

As I said above, make your own call regarding whether to open lee windows during the cyclone, but make the decision on the basis of some hard information. Here are two sources I quickly dug up, I've also got an article written after studies involving a large wind tunnel along with on the ground investigation after hurricane Andrew in Florida, buried in my hard drive somewhere, I'll dig a bit deeper, however the thrust of it was that whilst opening leeward windows did reduce internal pressure by a miniscule amount, it was unnecessary and given the sometimes unpredictable, turbulent airflow actually increased the chances of breakage and of having a windward opening - something everyone agrees is undesireable.

 

http://www.onestorm.org/prepare/storms-explained/hurricanes/CycloneMyths.aspx, http://www.snopes.com/science/hurricane.asp,

 

Maj I'm not sure quite how to take your comment about university bred experts, but I find it surprising that pilots who generally have a good understanding of scientific principles and accept wind tunnel data wrt aircraft, will dismiss the same source of data in regard to the behaviour of a structure.

 

Agree wholeheartedly re tiled roofs, had quite a bit to do with them after Larry - tiles peeled off wholesale and ended up showering down on the neighbours which didn't go down very well!

 

Edit: A slightly more authorative source, see p2 http://www.jcu.edu.au/cts/idc/groups/public/documents/newsletter/jcuprd_045829.pdf

 

 

[Tomo]

Hope you all get out of it relatively well, to those up north.

 

 

[Guest Maj Millard]

Thanks Tomo,

 

Spin, I don't wish to get into this too heavily at this time, besides it is not in my area of expitise. However I have observed cyclone wind-tunnel structure testing conducted locally. To place a small scale model structure and expose it to say 250Km per hour wind tunnel blast and say it is cyclone safe, is just not adequet.

 

Cyclones just do not work like that. They (for want of a better word), 'pound' up and down in speed for some hours, in company with massive rain falls. It is often this constant 'pounding' that loosens roofs and structures and can lead to their failure.

 

Anyway enough from me, we may get a very practical demo of that pounding tomorrow.

 

Like I say many of the formal 'cyclone experts' have never experienced one directly. I experienced my first in 1956 at age 5, and many since. They are experiences not quickly forgotten...............................................................................Maj...

 

 

[facthunter]

Tracey made a hell of a mess in Darwin. It looked like an A bomb was dropped there. A lot of the houses were built around a central brick structure and this was the place to be. If the rest goes you still have somewhere safe.. Our houses are generally matchstick structures not built to take 180 Kph + winds. As Maj says they get shaken around for a while and loosen up and fly away in bits. Be carefull folks and find the safest place. I well be thinking of you all. Hope that helps, and you are all here, hail and hearty after this thing has passed. Nev

 

 

[farri]

Hi Everyone, Thanks for all your best wishes,Fran and I do appreciate it

 

Fran and I are going to sit it out here in Cairns at our son and his wifes house. The house looks down over the city and if, we , don`t get blown away,we`ll get a birds eye view of the blow.

 

We sat out cyclone Larry here,with no real problems,just hope it`s the same this time.

 

If we don`t loose power (or untill we do), I`ll keep you posted once things start to get serious.

 

Frank.

 

 

[MrH]

Every one look after yourselves & families.

 

Life is more precious than any material holdings.

 

Nature can be so beautiful and yet suddenly turn into such a beast!

 

H

 

 

[Guest Maj Millard]

I'm happy to hear your not still in Deeral Frank. Yasi is a big Cat 5 this morning, and plus in the spirit of sharing, and just so you lot in NSW and Vic don't get bored, we've sent you down the remains of Anthony also, so watch out for a bit of rain and wind there.

 

Track of Yasi seems to have dropped South a bit, so unfortunatly Innisfail is once again in the firing line. Bit hot and sticky in Townsville atm, so a light breeze would be nice.............................Maj...

 

 

[pudestcon]

Bit hot and sticky in Townsville atm, so a light breeze would be nice.............................Maj...

Be careful what you wish for Maj!!

 

All the best and good luck with riding out Yasi.

 

Pud

 

 

[Guest ozzie]

I'm happy to hear your not still in Deeral Frank. Yasi is a big Cat 5 this morning, and plus in the spirit of sharing, and just so you lot in NSW and Vic don't get bored, we've sent you down the remains of Anthony also, so watch out for a bit of rain and wind there.Track of Yasi seems to have dropped South a bit, so unfortunatly Innisfail is once again in the firing line. Bit hot and sticky in Townsville atm, so a light breeze would be nice.............................Maj...

Surf is up and looks like getting bigger over the next week. :)

 

 

[JIMMYTWO]

Amen to all the above comments,Please play it safe guys and Gals.And may the Force(Yasi) be NOT with you

 

 

[maddogmorgan]

Cairns 12:30

 

Well guys,

 

I have battened down the hatches so nothing left to do but wait. To all the forumites from here and all the way down the coast who are in the firing line...Be Safe, Best wishes and I will see you all on the flipside!

 

 

[farri]

Waiting for the fun.

 

Hi Everyone........Just having a break from helping secure everything here in Cairns.

 

At the moment, Yasi is looking real nasty and it could even be worse than cyclone Larry.

 

The wind is just starting to pick up and we`re expecting it to hit propper at around midnight, making it worse because of the dark.

 

Yasi is currently category 5 and expected to cross the coast at that then still expected to be a category 2 cyclone as far inland as Croydon.

 

I`m expecting severe damage back home at Deeral due to the age of the dwellings and sheds,I hope it doesn`t happen but if it does we`ll just pick up the pieces,won`t be the first time.

 

My sympathy to all those who may be flooded when Yasi turns to a rain depression and to all those who have recently been flooded and may be flooded once again.

 

Frank.

 

 

[Guest Maj Millard]

Latest on Yasi at 12.30 Pm. Daughter and I took a run around town for some before, and after photos. First stop was the four enormous new hangars they've built at the airport. I feel they are just too damn big, and I don't have a lot of hope for them if they get the full force. They have been doing strengthing upgrades on them since they were finished about 3 years ago, and they are still doing them as of last week. Bottom line IMOP is that they should never have been allowed to be built to start with, in their current form. Second stop for photos was all the high-end mansions on the hills of Yarawonga. Mostly lots of large glass panels and very exposed and vulnerable IMOP.

 

Lots of sandbagging along the fore shore, and the army is out in force with their trucks, hanging around the copshops. Long lines of cars at all gas stations and drive -through beer outlets!..prioritys, prioritys, We spotted a large group of cars in a local park and went to have a look....all filling sandbags for low lying areas.

 

Looking very black out to sea, and we got our first wave of winds and heavy rain shortly after. I was a bit surprised just how strong they were for the first wave.

 

The latest BOM report shows that Yasi has come further south, and now projected through about Tully south of Innisfail. if it keeps heading to the South, in about ten hours it'll be to the North of Townsville, and we may cop the lot. Large rain band now over the Proserpine/Mackay area so watch out Windsor68.

 

All our preparations are done around here, and I've just popped the top off my first Stella for the day......................Maj....

 

 

[winsor68]

OK you guys up North... This is serious now. Maj as you said even you were surprised at the strength of the early gusts...INOP Townsville is going to cop it very much worse than Cairns and from what I am hearing from many up there they are blissfully ignorant or in denial... I am not talking about anyone on here as it seems the flying community has a respect for the weather that the general public is missing.... Be safe and if at all possible please get out.

 

To the members up there going through preperations... If any one can see it out I know you guys will.

 

 

[Guest davidh10]

... and plus in the spirit of sharing, and just so you lot in NSW and Vic don't get bored, we've sent you down the remains of Anthony also, so watch out for a bit of rain and wind there...

Yep. Copped some strong wind yesterday and this morning. Nothing to what you guys are about to get.

 

My thoughts and prayers, too, are with all of you in QLD. Try and stay safe.

 

 

[HEON]

Just looking at the sat photos makes me feel sick. You blokes up there the best of luck. If you believe in a higher authorty some words are probably in order. Keep you heads down as I want to read your posts post Yasi.

 

All the best.

 

 

[kgwilson]

All our preparations are done around here, and I've just popped the top off my first Stella for the day......................Maj....

And I will be raising my glass to you all up there later today. Best wishes for a safe passage through Yasi

 

Kevin

 

 

[Guest Maj Millard]

Yes Windsor, I believe you are correct and we may see more of it in Townsville than previously thought, as it slowly drops to the South. As far as some being blissfully ignorant and in denial, they are mostly newcomers to town and they are now getting the idea reak quick !!

 

Farri and others in cairns, looking better for you guys all the time, you may have a farm to go back to yet Frank.

 

To pass some time I've just been looking at the stats for the US Hurricane Katrina on Wikapedia. It's the one that caused all the damage in New orleans. It was also a Cat 5 system with wind speeds to 280km/h max and down to 902 m/bar of pressure. Yasi has 290km/h max winds, and has been down to 922 M/bar of pressure, and were still 10 hours away from meeting it.

 

If you haven't had a look at Yasi on the BOM already, it's worth doing as it's a great view of what a well formed cyclone looks like.

 

I also have a feeling in my waters that this thing may ultimatly drop some of it's heavy rain in the south of the state, so watch out down there also. Popped the top on my third Stella now...may have to start on the scotch about six.

 

My old mum (93) was evacuated from one of the coastal nursing homes yesterday, where she's been for a few years. She needs a high level of 24 hr care after suffering a stroke some years back. Just been notified that they may fly her south to the Brisbane area after this thing passes, if the original nursing home is not habitable. Hell she may get a ride in a C-17 before I do !............:ah_oh:...................

 

PS: If I, (and others) don't post anymore reports it'll more than likely be because we've lost power, wind gusts are on the increase, and I'm sure they'll cut it at some stage. Will get back to you when possible of course. Thanks to all of course for thoughts and best wishes............................tightening the seat belt now for possible severe turbulance !! :thumb_up:..............................................maj...

 

 

[pudestcon]

Onya Maj, and all you other buggars in North Queensland.

 

We might be a long way away over here in WA but we've got our fingers crossed for you.

 

Don't you become an inebriated old fool now Maj, eh?

 

I've got absolutely everything crossed,

 

Pud

 

 

[Guest Maj Millard]

Thanks Pud, I got a phone call from a friend in Perth earlier today, so it's not such a small world after all. We're right here Pud don't you worry........................................maj...