VMC into IMC

[facthunter]

VFR into IMC.. There are many different versionsof IMC from mist, thick fog, heavy rain in cloud, through to gut wrenching turbulence in Cb with hail. Statistics rarely present the true picture.

 

The issues become..

 

(a) Can I maintain control? What is a relatively easy task in calm conditions becomes another matter when there is a lot of turbulence, and I am talking of turbulence which would present a significant degree of difficulty even if you were visual.

 

(b) How can I avoid worse weather, (ie storm cells, heavy precipitation) now that I can't tell where they are? Only with airborne weather radar and the training in how to interpret it, or information from a ground facility who has you on radar.

 

© How do I navigate? and avoid high ground with any degree of certainty. This is assuming that turning back is not available because the weather has closed off that possibility..Well you need instruments that are beyond the basic panel to navigate independently , or a reliable GPS, OR receive support from a ground facility. Failing this you would DR over the most suitable topography and/or where the weather might be expected to improve. Good knowledge of the weather systems existing on the day helps here. Severity of fronts and time of passing etc. If the cloud is stratiform and the forecast tops were not too high it would be better to get on top as it is much easier to fly visual and you may spot evidence of the weather being better in one particular direction or find a hole to get visual below the cloud base. IF there is NO definate cloud base available below, exercise caution going down a hole that may lead nowhere .

 

The significant thing is maintaining control Item (a)...

 

When the air is not calm and you have up and down draughts as associated with cumuliform (convective) clouds, virtually anyone who is NOT trained and had some recent practice, will have a very high likelihood of losing control. Actual tests have proven this over time An operating auto-pilot should be used if you have one, because it doesn't know the difference between being in cloud and anything else, and will ease your workload.

 

The thing to remember in recreational flying is that you DON"T ever have to fly that particular day, unlike those who do it for a living, where there is pressure to deliver. If the weather looks crook , Give it a miss till the forecast is better.Nev

 

 

[eightyknots]

Wise words, Nev. Well stated.

 

 

[farri]

I believe it helps to make a point by telling true stories,so here`s one.

 

Several years ago an aircraft with four people on board,was heading north,on it`s way to Cairns. It was daylight hours when they approached Babinda but the weather that day was what is considered normal for a lot of the year,in this part of the country.....Total cloud cover, only a couple of hundred feet off the ground and heavy rain.

 

They approached Babinda just on the western edge of the town, flying so low ( possibly trying to maintain visual contact with the ground, because their foward visibility would have been next to none ), that when one of the residents heard it coming, he ran outside,had a quick look then ran back in and rang the authorities. He knew that on that heading and height,they would go straight into the southern side of mount Bellenden Ker.

 

No one will ever know just what they saw or experienced just before impact but four people died that day.

 

Frank.

 

 

[kgwilson]

What an amazing account of a very stressful situation which we all would never willingly get into, but no matter how much we try to fly within the guidelines and rules we have, the training we've undertaken, our experience and our common sense, things still can go awfully wrong. I have an experience which has many similarities to David's and yet so different, so when I have a spare hour or 2 I will recount this. Probably I won't be so eloquent but the memories are as vivid today as when it all turned to custard in the early morning of the 14th of March 2001.

 

Kevin

 

 

[facthunter]

David HAS set a high standard in the style of his recounting of the event. It was almost as though you were there as it unfolds. It would have been doubly fascinating if we hadn't known that he survived. He tells the story against himself with no cover up of the mistakes. By this means we all learn as there are lessons there. as I am sure there is in others. Just on the severity of turbulence David, once the RH ashtray came out of the door of a C-150 I was flying near west Maitland. It's a push-in fit in the trim..and it takes negative "G" to get it out. Nev

 

 

[Guest davidh10]

Thanx david. Very useful stuff when the topic is based around a notion that 178 seconds in the soup and your dead. A notion that is not validated by the stats, and has been the basis for my argument from day one.What is validated is the fact that if you do prang your chances of survival are almost nothing.

An interesting thread. Thanks for kicking it off Motz.

The real world is never black and white, but rather swirling shades of grey, not unlike IMC. The weather bureau continually proves that even given vast data sets, the real world defies precise analysis and prediction. I think that flying is just another such situation.

 

It is easy to sit at the keyboard and say never do it. You'll die if you do. You should have made a better decision earlier. All of these things are possibly true, but then again the statistics reveal that we are actually dealing with uncertainties and risk evaluation. Some decisions will lead to increasing the level of risk and others to decreasing it. Every time you take-off, the risk of having an aviation accident increases and each time we land safely, it decreases. Somewhere we must have evaluated the risk and considered it acceptable.

 

While we can all imagine scenarios and ways of avoiding them hypothetically, David Isaac's story, along with others' (there's some in the linked report as well, but not as well told) demonstrates that is not always the way in which our minds operate when faced with such decisions.

 

The better armed with knowledge and experience we are, if we should ever find ourselves having to make a choice between an emergency landing and entering IMC, the better we should be at arriving at a decision at the time with which we are least uncomfortable. Note that I didn't say "best decision", as that cannot even be determined in hindsight. Of course the same knowledge and experience is also likely to equip us better to make a decision earlier to avoid having to make the hard one.

 

I'm not going to suggest likely or possible scenarios because there's arguments against all of them from an intellectual perspective, but I think it was worthwhile that Motz started this thread to focus not on the traditional advice of don't go there, but what should you do if you find yourself in that predicament.

 

It is interesting that all of the statistics are drawn from GA, but not surprising. GA accidents are investigated and the reports made public. Recreational accidents seem to have no repository of data upon which to draw. Perhaps this is something that RAA should be lobbying government to take up, so that there is a means of obtaining accident analysis and storing it as a knowledge-base for the future (possibly a topic for another thread).

 

Another consideration is that GA aircraft have instruments capable of enabling a suitably skilled pilot to safely negotiate IMC, whereas RAA aircraft have only a subset of the instruments found in GA. Remember that David Isaac was thankful for his real IF experience. One might wonder, however, if the instruments in many RAA aircraft wouldn't qualify for "partial panel", albeit they aren't TSOd. I have no idea whether the "under the hood" time that a PPL gets as part of their training includes flying "partial panel", but maybe that is something that RAA pilots could experience via a GA school, and perhaps some real IMC, not just a hood.

 

I'm certainly not suggesting that would equip a pilot to fly in IMC, but it would increase their level of knowledge and awareness. Remembering David Isaac's quote in Post #6; "I believe the only thing that saved my life was the IF experience I had in NZ, not the few under hood hours that I did during my PPL. "

 

:peepwall:

 

 

[motzartmerv]

Thanx guys, all great stuff.

 

One of the things I stress during nav training is the route selection. Instead of just flying direct it's much better to plan legs via airfields. Even if it means adding a few miles to the total distance. Each airfield you fly over becomes the fall back point. Should the wx sock in in front of you, you fall back to your last good field. Instead of being miles from both destination and departure point, you could be only a few miles from a place to hide. When using this technique it's vital make sure the door doesn't close behind you.

 

I can't stress enough how useful this method is, or count the amount of times it's saved my bacon.

 

 

[Guest Macnoz]

S I've got a scan off the Dom Dom incident to post, just trying to find a way of getting the memory down small enough to post it.

 

here be the link

 

https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/24681/197403128.pdf

 

 

[turboplanner]

Thanks for that. The one I've got is a lot longer and covers more, so I'll still try to shrink it.

 

 

[kaz3g]

Thanx guys, all great stuff.One of the things I stress during nav training is the route selection. Instead of just flying direct it's much better to plan legs via airfields. Even if it means adding a few miles to the total distance. Each airfield you fly over becomes the fall back point. Should the wx sock in in front of you, you fall back to your last good field. Instead of being miles from both destination and departure point, you could be only a few miles from a place to hide. When using this technique it's vital make sure the door doesn't close behind you.

I can't stress enough how useful this method is, or count the amount of times it's saved my bacon.

Hi motzartmerv

 

I'm so glad you posted that comment. I plan to avoid tiger country whenever I can. I do dog legs if necessary to take advantage of the presence of any airfields along my route. And I mentally fly from one outlanding area to another as I learned to do when active in the gliding scene.

 

It might mean travelling a little further but, hey, I fly for fun so all that happens is I get a bit more of it than those who fly direct irrespective of what's underneath.

 

Blue skies and no dud landings... always

 

kaz

 

 

[Guest JRMobile]

Thanks for sharing, great read!:thumb_up:

 

 

[facthunter]

It is well told and worthy of more widespread distribution. David, you should submit it to the Air Safety Digest. .."Flight safety " as it is now called. Nev.

 

 

[facthunter]

With no personal identification, of course.!! Nev

 

 

[Relfy]

Thanks David, a great read and something I definately got something out of! :thumb_up:

 

 

[Powerin]

Thanks David, beautifully written and a salient lesson!

 

 

[farri]

David, Excellent account!

 

If the message hasn`t got through to some people, I suspect nothing ever will!!!

 

Frank.

 

 

[eightyknots]

I trust my story provides some insight to any who choose to read it.

Sincerely,

 

David Isaac

David, after the first instalment, I no longer chose to read it: I felt compelled to read (and re-read) the rest of what you had written!

 

There is so much to learn and so many variables in aviation. It is much better to learn from others' experiences than have to swallow the bitter pill of a horrible or terrifying experience of our own.

 

Many, many thanks for sharing this with us. You have done the recreational flying community a great service!