Pilot shortage to drive industry into the ground

[poteroo]

The costs of aviation in the US means that more pilots are leaving the industry than are joining. The linked article below explains how this, in conjunction with an expected increased demand, will lead to a shortage of pilots.I do take issue with their statement that aircraft production is now down to 700 units per annum (from 14,000) - surely that doesn't take LSA into account!

 

It would be interesting to see if the same is happening in Australia - I haven't been in aviation circles long enough to see a similar trend, although I have noticed that it is mainly older pilots coming into RAA.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/on-small-business/small-aviation-businesses-say-pilot-shortage-could-drive-industry-into-the-ground/2014/02/08/2422cadc-8f5c-11e3-b46a-5a3d0d2130da_story.html

There's no shortage at the bottom end of commercial flying - just look at the pprune threads! There are still tens, hundreds actually, of hopefuls who are prepared to forego better paying careers, and a great social life, for a shot at those illusive 4 bars. The Universities are churning out more 'aviation' graduates - which raises the bar for everyone. And, there are the 'cadet' schemes run by several airlines which all but guarantee a straightline progression for CPL's. For the individual to self fund the entire process is a very large step - you either have rich grandparents or take on a massive HECS/VETFEE debt. It's a long road to the top...and good luck to them.

 

 

 

However, the odds are not in their favour. Airlines are employing a lot of direct entry captains, (often expat Aussies who want to come home for the kids education), and that limits local progression. Aussie airlines are finally comprehending that the market is finite, and the baby boomers are running out of cash. We're all living too long! Airlines can't keep flying with rising costs, but decreasing revenue - something has to give, and it will be the dumb concept of 'maintaining market share'. AJ should eventually hit on this! As well, the FIFO boom has supposedly peaked, and in many cases, the smaller turboprop aircraft are replaced by F100's and 737's as the mines move into production phase and require less people.

 

 

 

And on RAAus demographics. It seems to be that there are lots more elderly people both converting over, or learning from scratch. Some younger students are starting in RAAus and using it to save quite substantial money en route to CPL. Once RAAus admin sorts the current issues out, and it's possible to extract data out of the student system - we may be able to determine the age groups, and also the 'starts' to 'completions' in training..and the why's.

 

 

 

happy days,

 

 

[facthunter]

I'm not referring to Australia. It's small bikkies. I understood Airbus and Boeing came up with figures that showed not enough pilots available to fill the projected orders. They will probably find them and they can learn on the job.

 

Airfares are probably not enough to cover costs generally. I wouldn't want to fly airlines today. I have mates who still do but most of them are not overjoyed at the way things are.. Accountants run airlines and they have little knowledge of maintenance and pilot training and just look at the cost, and do it the cheapest way possible. Unless an International airline has support from government who owns oil wells it is a hard road to hoe, trying to compete. Nev

 

 

[Downunder]

I'm not referring to Australia. It's small bikkies. I understood Airbus and Boeing came up with figures that showed not enough pilots available to fill the projected orders. They will probably find them and they can learn on the job.Airfares are probably not enough to cover costs generally. I wouldn't want to fly airlines today. I have mates who still do but most of them are not overjoyed at the way things are.. Accountants run airlines and they have little knowledge of maintenance and pilot training and just look at the cost, and do it the cheapest way possible. Unless an International airline has support from government who owns oil wells it is a hard road to hoe, trying to compete. Nev

Accountants are taking over the mining industry too.

Spending more money counting money, than worrying about making money....

 

 

[pmccarthy]

Gold mining has been a Ponzi scheme for decades. When has a gold miner paid dividends?

 

 

[Student Pilot]

With all the easy answers you blokes have to the worlds problems you will have no trouble getting jobs as consultants to the worlds Governments, problems solved.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

I can't see the attraction in being a CPL, flying in bad weather? No thanks!

 

 

 

[facthunter]

You have a point there, but it is part of the challenge. Flying a dud aeroplane is a worse situation. Nev

 

 

[shafs64]

Apparently we live in a bubble where our minimum wages dont affect our ability to have jobs. And where everyone deserves a wage rise every year despite our competitors suffering tough times and a global correction.Do i want to take a pay cut. No way. But i will if it means my workplace can stay competitive and not lay us off or others.

 

The auto workers didnt get that choice because they where betrayed by greedy unionists that ultimately cost all of them there livelihood. We need a balance.

Yes the mates of the ALP the invisible men of the criminal unions. when it all fails blame the union. we are very lucky that we have unions.LNP would have no one to blame when large company's pack up and leave.

 

 

[Student Pilot]

Do i want to take a pay cut. No way. But i will if it means my workplace can stay competitive and not lay us off or others.

The auto workers didnt get that choice because they where betrayed by greedy unionists that ultimately cost all of them there livelihood. We need a balance.

At what level do you mean "Stay competitive"? With China, India and Indonesia paying less than a dollar an hour just how do you suggest to stay competitive? Are you willing to work for $1 an hour and how would you call that balanced?

Pity there are no jobs advertised for armchair experts cause some of you blokes would be shoe in's.

 

 

[facthunter]

Good THINKING SP. Coolie wages means no-one buys anything, Gerry Harvey. Destroy unionism has always been the aim of Rupee and we always believe him don't we? We have about the forth enquiry into the pink batts which has come up with nothing before and construction workers can die on the job for clearly identifiable breaches of proper practice and nothing is said. How many died on the Westgate Bridge, when it collapsed... 37? Whatever the number it was faulty. Nev

 

 

[DrZoos]

At what level do you mean "Stay competitive"? With China, India and Indonesia paying less than a dollar an hour just how do you suggest to stay competitive? Are you willing to work for $1 an hour and how would you call that balanced?Pity there are no jobs advertised for armchair experts cause some of you blokes would be shoe in's.

Staying competitive with countries that we find acceptable norms. Of course we dont want to be competitive with countries that use sweat shops and child labour.

And we dont need to , but we do need to be competitive with advanced economies. At present we are the completely unchallenged winner of the most noncompetitive nation on earth to do business by a long margin. And our inflated dollar due to the mining boom only exacerbates the problem by around 17%

 

 

[facthunter]

All the companies go to the 3rd world to get cheap labour. They ( the locals) gradually drag their standards up and the investment is not so good anymore. Robotics make the real savings so stability (political) in the country you choose to invest in might be a larger consideration. I wonder what Siemens think of their investments in CHINA? As far as I know you can't have majority control of anything in China, so how secure is your intellectual property? Nev

 

 

[Oscar]

For all our uncompetitiveness, just remember Cessna went to China to build the Skycatcher ( http://www.flyingmag.com/blogs/going-direct/8IGHxFDCOipRo9wz.99 ).

 

$150k for an aircraft that wasn't designed properly in the first place, that had airframe faults, that didn't deliver any sort of useful performance. By the time they got here, they were three times plus the price of a Jab 120. How uncompetitive does that make the Australian product?

 

How much can an FTO profitably charge-out for training if its amortised hourly depreciation rate needs to be around three times that for different aircraft?

 

 

[DrZoos]

When wages rise they increase the cost of everything in the economy. Then the govt taxes us on top of that actual price increases. Especially since the GST was applied, because its a tax on the end sale value. So if wages increase the cost of an item by $100 per annum eg your electricity bill. The GST and other taxes or duty make it actually increase by around another $14 to $18. So we end up as an end consumer with $100 worth of extra wages but our prices increased by $114 to $118.

 

This is one that most people just wont accept or cant get their head around. But after studying advanced economics at university level its sadly true. Wage increases in Australia give us a very temporary reprieve but they actually cause job losses and in our tax system they often actually reduce our living standards around 3-6 months after we get the wage increase.

 

Your all pilots so hopefully you didnt fail maths. Do the maths on a wage increase , then apply GST, income tax, super, stamp duties etc and work out whether the extra money you just think you got was worth it. The ATO is the real winner of any wage or price increases not you.

 

 

[facthunter]

No-one is suggesting the 162 was a success story Clearly a big company like Cessna have nor covered them selves with glory there. Your comparison with Jabiru is valid although they have little in common concept wise except they are both high wing 2 seaters sold into the same market. Jabiru is a vey small company I believe the Jabiru by and large is successful. It's still flying at it's "as sold" weights and is a solid airframe. I don't get scared of the engine, when flying one, but that aspect is complex and a Work in Progress as far as I see it. I will have a look at Camit, about September. Nev

 

 

[DrZoos]

Do the maths create a small bubble economy and apply a wage increase. I challenge you to be able to prove me wrong mathematically that a wage increase where taxes are applied to income and GST to costs can ever improve living standards of the wage earners. Its a mathematical impossibility. In our system a wage increase can only ever improve living standards if companies that sell us goods take a lower profit margin. Or when people stop spending and start saving (but that is a lowering of living standard when its not by choice and a manipulation of the maths) And you know as well as i do that companies never opt to take lower profit margins.

 

Wage rises lead to higher tax and lower living standards for the working poor in a market driven economy. Despite the temporary reprieve they offer.

 

 

[facthunter]

If you keep this up you will be proving we will be better off reducing our wages individually. Disposable income is all that matters and many have NONE . Those who support the higherVAT are suggesting the already poor should pay more taxes as a percentage of what they get. Most of the big guys use tax havens and see paying tax as an optional thing for the foolish. Make all the Swiss and Greek , Andorra, Lichtenstein Cayman Cook islands accounts available for inspection etc and they can pay the tax they should. It's a mugs game being honest. when those who can are allowed to get away with deception and avoidance... Nev

 

 

[fly_tornado]

The simplest way to fix our economy is to end the aged pension and introduce a special award for the over 65s so that they can be employed at a lower cost of $5-6 an hour. There are just too many takers in our economy these days

 

 

[DrZoos]

Nev we agree but this is a massively different argument to how wage increase affect living standards of the working poor. . Apple, eBay, Google, Facebook, Twitter et al etc need to get forced out of tax havens and forced to pay taxes in the countries they earn the money. The USA, UK etc are all crying to the same tune. The politicians are too gutless and stupid to do so because they think doing so taxes the company twice. They have been fooled into thinking these companies already pay tax twice. Once when they pay tax in their tax haven at stupidly low rates and once when the shareholder gets a dividend or pays capital gains tax. Its an absolute con. Our govt is scared of the corporate reaction if we choose to dare tax these tax dodgers. Apple paid $36M tax in Australia in FY2013 on $6.1 billion of revenue derived from Australia. Its called profit shifting and its criminal, the problem is the legislation is too slow and politicians believe they pay tax twice.. At a minimum apple should have paid $600m in GST to the ATO. Why the hell isnt our govt closing the loophole. Its easy, if they want to make sal in australia for digital content they pay gst in australia. Otherwise we make it a criminal offence and we put an internet block on their site. Creative accounting requires responsive tax legislation. At $564M per annum and counting lost tax just from Apple alone you would think this would be an pressing national priority.

 

This issue alone costs Australia Billions per annum and its a literally stealing from us with our govts full permission. Its crazy, because when i buy items from the USA i pay US taxes before it even leaves the retailer. But these predominantly US based companies are selling in australia to Australians and paying less then 0.6% tax.

 

At the very least we need an urgent legislation change that introduces a bill that makes any company shifting profits offshore a criminal offence by the directors of the company and requiring them to repay the debt prior to being allowed to continue to trade in Australia plus serve a minimum jail term. This one piece of legislation alone would almost immediately stop 95% of it and with virtually zero enforcement costs. It needs a specific focus on digital content sales as occuring in Australia if the purchaser is based in Australia. Physical goods need to be subject to free trade agreements, but digital goods need to be subject to local tax laws.

 

In reality these companies pay tax less then once. Because they pay tax in a tax haven , write off all their expenses and then pay dividends that most recipients have complex tax structures that allow them to have lower tax on the effect of the dividends. In addition the company often only distributes a small percentage of earnings and retains wealth in the low tax environment of the tax haven. Thus the wealth continues to grow and earn for years and years in a low tax environment and then is only taxed once upon removal and usually at some concessional rate. Its a con.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

good luck getting the LNP taxing the rich

 

The other easier, better and quicker alternative is to tax superannuation.

 

 

[Bob Llewellyn]

good luck getting the LNP taxing the rich The other easier, better and quicker alternative is to tax superannuation.

Tax politicians. After 2 terms in parliament, put 'em in forced labour camps. How can we lose?

 

 

[Bob Llewellyn]

Do the maths create a small bubble economy and apply a wage increase. I challenge you to be able to prove me wrong mathematically that a wage increase where taxes are applied to income and GST to costs can ever improve living standards of the wage earners. Its a mathematical impossibility. In our system a wage increase can only ever improve living standards if companies that sell us goods take a lower profit margin. Or when people stop spending and start saving (but that is a lowering of living standard when its not by choice and a manipulation of the maths) And you know as well as i do that companies never opt to take lower profit margins.Wage rises lead to higher tax and lower living standards for the working poor in a market driven economy. Despite the temporary reprieve they offer.

Your maths appears correct, but politically unacceptable. Please find different facts. This reply is a free service provided by the "keep the mongrels in power, oi!" newsgroup.

 

 

[DrZoos]

Your maths appears correct, but politically unacceptable. Please find different facts. This reply is a free service provided by the "keep the mongrels in power, oi!" newsgroup.

Thats the problem Bob. What im saying about wage increases decreasing living standards of the working poor is absolutely true. But it has three major problems. Its politically unacceptable to almost everyone that hasnt had it explained in detail and then really stopped to think hard about it. The majority of people cant comprehend how higher wages can possible mean they are worse off or just wont accept it. And the union movement relies on continual controversy and adversarial behavior to get people to pay union fees, so they will never own up to it.

The unions know it and Bill Shortens recent comments are an indication they are extremely concerned about our current imbalance of super high minimum wages. They know we are heading for a jobs crisis. But they will not be coming out anytime soon and trying to convince workers to stay on current wages.

 

Believe it or not im anti work choices and pro union. But i do believe the unions have got us into a wages situation that is going to involve a lot of pain for a lot of people for many years. But who can blame them, thats how their bread has been buttered for the last 50 years. Its only now they have realised the deep deep sh## we are in.

 

 

[Bob Llewellyn]

Thats the problem Bob. What im saying about wage increases decreasing living standards of the working poor is absolutely true. But it has three major problems. Its politically unacceptable to almost everyone that hasnt had it explained in detail and then really stopped to think hard about it. The majority of people cant comprehend how higher wages can possible mean they are worse off or just wont accept it. And the union movement relies on continual controversy and adversarial behavior to get people to pay union fees, so they will never own up to it.The unions know it and Bill Shortens recent comments are an indication they are extremely concerned about our current imbalance of super high minimum wages. They know we are heading for a jobs crisis. But they will not be coming out anytime soon and trying to convince workers to stay on current wages.

Believe it or not im anti work choices and pro union. But i do believe the unions have got us into a wages situation that is going to involve a lot of pain for a lot of people for many years.

As the vendors of computers know, bigger numbers sell, even if of no actual significance - the employer / employee system is obsolete, it's got to be one-man businesses in consulting or de-facto subcontract arrangements. When are we ever going to accept a shorter working week?

 

 

[Teckair]

At present we are the completely unchallenged winner of the most noncompetitive nation on earth to do business by a long margin.

Correct, it is unsustainable and can only end badly. Instead of addressing the cause of the problems we have governments going further and further into debt trying to prop the whole sorry mess up. In the late 70s I worked for GMH in Adelaide, you got into strife if you did more than a certain amount of work on a shift and I was told to go and sit in the dunny and do nothing. I was more content being busy but the union would have none of that, for them it was a matter of do less and demand more pay. It has taken years and a lot of taxpayer hand outs but now we have the inevitable result, and the workers did it to themselves, if they want blame some one they should look in the mirror. Thanks to stupidity, greed and laziness Australia is not going to end up still being the lucky country.