Wellcamp

[fly_tornado]

Life in China is good Bex!

 

The airport won't stop 1000's of trucks on the roads, its going to increase them. Let's move forward 10 years and Wellcamp has become the major freight hub for Chinese lettuce and other such delicacies, Toowoomba is still only 150K up from 120K population so it can't consume all of this goodness. The rest of the freight has to go into Woolie's and Coles's distribution centres outside Brisbane via road.

 

Wagner's is promising a 1M passengers though the terminal in the first year and has convinced a few shop owners to locate shops in the terminal I assume based on that volume. Qantas have only quoted 85.000 passengers. That's going to leave a big hole in those small businesses revenues regardless of what sweeteners Wagner's have promised them.

 

 

[Geoff13]

I never said it would decrease the number of trucks on the road, but to those 1000 truckies and their wives and families and customers, it will make a huge difference.

 

Less than 10% of the heavy vehicles that climb the range and head up James St turn off before the Industrial Area so the new bypass will remove more than 90% of heavy vehicles from the residential and shopping precincts. In the last 12 months alone I have lost in excess of 300 truck hrs due to the terrible traffic flow through Toowoomba. That comes in at about $30,000.00 and I don't even run up there on a regular basis. I hate to think what it costs the guys that run up there daily. My worst case in the last year was 4hrs 45 mins Withcott to Charlton. My point is that Wellcamp can only work if the road works so it means that the road has to be done. Big win for road transport in Qld and in turn a big win for Sth Qld economy. If it means the tall poppies upset some people just by existing, then so be it.

 

Cheers Geoff13

 

 

[bexrbetter]

Life in China is good Bex!

Best and most accurate post yet FT.

 

I've been carried in one of those stretchers up a mountain (and rickshaws of course for fun), have a close look at the front guys calf muscles in that picture, you can not believe how big they are until you see it for yourself.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

 

Bex, It must be good to be a colonialist! You have shoes and don't need them!

 

Geoff, it's got nothing to do with tall poppies, you are seeing these opportunities that I can't see. Why would you fly your freight into Toowoomba when you can fly it into Brisbane? So far only Qantas has signed up to offer a service that was already on offer with Skytrans. Toowoomba's biggest industries are real estate, finance, education and medical services none of which are big users of freight. As far as shipping stuff out the last 14 years, 12 have been in drought. Acland 3 is picking up 9B litres of water, which will severely limit growth options for intensive agriculture.

 

 

[dunlopdangler]

FT. I'd like to keep things as they are to, but the reality of things is that its a changing... for better or worse that remains to be seen, and that comes down to proper management by the stakeholders.. and proper governance by the authorities. At least we have individuals out there who will put their hands into their pockets and spend money on what they believe in to be an opportunity, giving many people employment etc... bit different to others bleating about things when opportunities go elsewhere and you miss out.. For instance, Did you also know that Coles, Woolies and others are planning distribution centres in the area instead of choking Brisbane? The Wagner hub isn't been built to load up 747s full of hay bales...

 

 

[jetjr]

9 billion L (Ill assume 9000 Ml??) water isnt that much in bulk water terms - around 1200ha summer crop production,

 

Like talking about how many meters a truck travels each year??

 

Not that I like the fact but Ill bet they create more jobs and family incomes than the few farms who might otherwise have used the water and thats if the water has been removed from farms not saved by irrigation system upgrades and efficiencies.

 

Id have thought the continuing transport of millions of tonnes of high value exports into central Brisbane wasnt sustainable let alone cold storages and slots out of Brisbane Airport. Australia would be one of the few countries in the world without inland freight terminals for airfreight.

 

Growing things for exports is easy, moving and selling them is tough part, unless long term markets/chains are there, no one invests in infrastructure to do it efficiently. This includes water infrastructure.

 

Having cost effective export chain will make life much harder for the supermarket Duopoly in Australia and possibly some producers might get paid a reasonable price for their product.

 

Internal freight, especially in and around capital cities, is absurdly priced in australia and it is shown in uncompetitive costs of producing things here. Presently costs more to move a container a few hundred Km in Australia than from other side of USA by sea.

 

We can still make good high quality agricultural products at good costs and do well overseas. A key problem is getting to the scale and supply volumes required to "own" market in Asia.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

Its always going to be much easier for a new company to start freighting stuff into and out of Brisbane, you'd have to be doing a roaring trade to need to setup a 2nd warehouse less than 120kms/90minutes away Brisbane. Once Brisbane gets its 2nd runway up and running its going to be hard to justify the duplication of effort. A lot of the arguments for why this airport wont work also apply to the gold coast airport which is 90Kms away from Brisbane. Brisbane works as a freight centre because you can do both sea and air.

 

 

[turboplanner]

A freight hub is at the start or then end of a freight run, and there has to be a logical need for it.

 

For example there's no freight hub between Melbourne and Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney, Sydney and Brisbane, Sydney and Adelaide. Even Melbourne - Perth doesn't usually involve hubbing in.

 

So I don't see it as a hub at this stage, however:

 

Type 2 Road Trains (3 semi trailers, truck and 2 trailers, BAB Quad are currently assembled at Mitchell, and a lot of trucks run direct from there with freight each way to Darwin. Access for trucks to North Queensland is far better from Mitchell than going up the Bruce Highway in a procession. Livestock Road Trains have to break up into semis at Mitchell also.

 

The Queensland Government is currently upgrading the Warrego Highway for Type 2 Road trains from Mitchell to Roma.

 

It is not such a huge stretch for the Government to continue the upgrade to the Toowoomba area, and then you would have very efficient transport access to Darwin, North Queensland, Melbourne (a huge marketing advantage compared to Brisbane)/Perth/Adelaide, and in this link I see the biggest meat packer in the country on the doorstep.

 

You might ask why would anyone freight product from Adelaide to Toowoomba, but it's all about feeding a market with the correct product, and I've seen refrigerated semis loaded with No5 chickens headed from Melbourne to Adelaide passing other refrigerated semis headed from Adelaide to Melbourne with No 7 chickens - your wife really will pay the cost of the Kenworths just to get that chicken dinner exactly right!

 

http://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/~/media/aboutus/corpinfo/Publications/Warrego%20Highway%20Upgrade%20Strategy/WarregoHighwayUpgradeStrategypart4TheWarregoHighway.pdf

 

Now maybe that's not what the airport plan is, but there are some interesting opportunities.

 

 

[dazza 38]

At the end of the day, I don't know why the Wagners decided to build the airport. But good on them. It's a nice change than reading about airport closures. I hope it becomes successful.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

No chance of the airport closing, Wagner family is worth at least $600M if not more.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

At the end of the day, I don't know why the Wagners decided to build the airport. But good on them. It's a nice change than reading about airport closures. I hope it becomes successful.

Yeah well said Dazza and a couple of others, great to see affirmative business happening in Oz, lets hope Politicians and the media don't start on them for cheap points.

 

No chance of the airport closing, Wagner family is worth at least $600M if not more.

Geez, I didn't realise they owned Queensland.

 

 

[rankamateur]

Wagner family is worth at least $600M if not more.

And that is a lot bigger problem to some than to others, jealousy is a real bitch. Maybe that story about tools is a lie. He who dies with the biggest airport wins!

 

 

[ExJourno]

Adam, the industrial park has the real potential to disrupt the industrial and commercial real estate markets in Toowoomba due to the size of the development out there. A quick squizz on real commercial found 130 vacant industrial rentals so adding 223 more is just going to kill that market. And you might be thinking well good on Wagner's for investing in Toowoomba, they will get a massive tax write off with this investment losing money for the next 15 years, so you as PAYE tax payer and a TRC rate payer are the one picking up the bill.

I wouldn't presume to guess my thoughts, mate.

 

And your argument holds no water. Part of the reason for vacant rentals in the Industrial market would be apparent if you went and looked at them. Also if you asked about leasing one.

 

The size of the industrial lots out there at Wellcamp are somewhat different to those available to the majority closer to town.

 

You're also missing the point made by the Wagners that this was a generational investment, before they started (officially).

 

Frankly, I think you are no more than a whinger, regarding this facility. Your commentary leads me to thinking you have no real knowledge and are just out to bitch about the Wagner family's project...

 

FT, serious question, have you actually been exposed to any large-scale or corporatised business in your working life? If you have, this project by the Wagners would make more sense to you...

 

 

[fly_tornado]

The $600M isn't mine its the Wagner families, the biggest threat against the airport is John Wagner dying and his kids wanting to move on from running the airport.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

Adam I make no claim to any expertise, I've never claimed to be one. My doubts about the long term viability airport are due to the discrepancies between Qantas (85000) and Wagner's (1,000,000) predictions of passenger numbers. The fact that Skytrans announced that they are exiting the market the day Qantas announce they are entering the market. Dispute my conclusions but the facts are the facts.

 

You haven't brought any facts to the discussion Adam just a bit of bluster.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

The $600M isn't mine its the Wagner families, the biggest threat against the airport is John Wagner dying and his kids wanting to move on from running the airport.

That's not a new problem anywhere in the World FT. On occasion, not often though, it actually ends up the kids do better.

 

 

[ExJourno]

The $600M isn't mine its the Wagner families, the biggest threat against the airport is John Wagner dying and his kids wanting to move on from running the airport.

Thats a bloody huge leap to take. You'll probably find that if the kids want out of the airport, it won't be as simple as it being sold off...

 

By the way, reading your comments again, FT, it seems you are continuing to think of the airport as being a purely Toowoomba-useful facility. Are you aware of the quantities of various processing grains and other grown items that are exported from outside Toowoomba? Well outside Toowoomba, but well within the catchment of Wellcamp with an international freight service?

 

Mate, I am struggling here... what part of the bigger picture is eluding your narrow focus?

 

 

[fly_tornado]

Adam, why did Skytrans bail on the Toowoomba Sydney run I would have thought they have established a solid reputation over the last few years with plenty of people. I heard that Qantaslink is being subsidised by Wagner, is that true?

 

 

[ExJourno]

Adam I make no claim to any expertise, I've never claimed to be one. My doubts about the long term viability airport are due to the discrepancies between Qantas (85000) and Wagner's (1,000,000) predictions of passenger numbers. The fact that Skytrans announced that they are exiting the market the day Qantas announce they are entering the market. Dispute my conclusions but the facts are the facts.You haven't brought any facts to the discussion Adam just a bit of bluster.

Buddy, your "facts" are hardly that.

 

And, you'd need to check the definition of bluster.

 

If you have no expertise (I actually asked if you had exposure, not expertise, by the way) and also no basis for a general understand about this level of business decision making/operations... go learn about it.

 

Oh, um... those passenger numbers. One is the initial offering by one airline... the other will also be inclusive of known FIFO operations that are moving to a Wellcamp base. I am aware of three that are almost certain to make the jump - out journey is a passenger trip, home journey is a passenger trip. A single worker makes for at least 24 journeys annually on a 3+1 roster taking one swing off a year. As many rosters are 2+1, that number increases... the numbers are ambitious, but stack up if you contemplate that Wagner will be privy to the mindset of operators that none of us have access to.

 

 

[DrZoos]

Just back to my original point .even sydney is only moving around 73% of its capacity ....yes its bedlam at times, because they wont spend the money to build buildings until they are forced to by pure economics....but if Sydney is 73% then Brisbane must be 35 % or less... I fly a lot and i have never queued or waited at Brisbane even 20% as long or often as i do at Sydney every time i fly... I fly about 75% out of Syd and 25% from Brisbane, but plenty enough from both to compare the two.

 

Yep i get the runway needs the duplication, but the rest of the airport will be twenty years from justifying freight or passengers leaving Brisbane and transiting to a separate hub...

 

Ft. Gold Coast is a different story because of its unique tourism proposition and population. It has a unique economic moat as a tourist destination....

 

The other thing is the changing dynamics of airport use. Years ago a few carriers used large airport space very inefficiently and flew high cost passengers with plenty of room at multiples of weekly wages.... Today the budget carriers are moving the bulk of passengers carrying far more pax per aircraft and using less terminal space due to fuller aircraft and low cost drive for efficiency. They lease a gate for under an hour and then vacate the gate for another user, which massively contributes to available airport capacity. But the secondary effect is it makes justifying new airports and terminals extremely difficult.

 

Asx:SYD owner of Sydney airport claim they are twenty years from economically justifying a second Sydney airport so its difficult to see how Brisbane can. Theres a case to argue they already have Bankstown and Camden... But i think we are talking large scale freight and Pax and if we where to count them then we would need to include those surrounding Brisbane already.

 

 

[ExJourno]

Adam, why did Skytrans bail on the Toowoomba Sydney run I would have thought they have established a solid reputation over the last few years with plenty of people. I heard that Qantaslink is being subsidised by Wagner, is that true?

I don't know about Qantaslink being subsidised. And I have already commented on the Skytrans to Sydney run.

 

Private citizens in my social circle didn't find Skytrans' services to be up to scratch. I'll give you an example. I left a busted motor bike in Hillston NSW and caught a ride to nearest airport (not air strip). Got to Sydney and couldn't get home with Skytrans. Had to jump a normal commercial to Brisbane. Despite numerous trips interstate, not once have I used Skytrans as, on each occasion, it was not convenient and the pricing was only good if you booked well ahead... that's my experience and similar to the anecdotes of those whom have discussed their frustrations with me.

 

 

[dazza 38]

Just back to my original point .even sydney is only moving around 73% of its capacity ....yes its bedlam at times, because they wont spend the money to build buildings until they are forced to by pure economics....but if Sydney is 73% then Brisbane must be 35 % or less... I fly a lot and i have never queued or waited at Brisbane even 20% as long or often as i do at Sydney every time i fly... I fly about 75% out of Syd and 25% from Brisbane, but plenty enough from both to compare the two.Yep i get the runway needs the duplication, but the rest of the airport will be twenty years from justifying freight or passengers leaving Brisbane and transiting to a separate hub...

 

Ft. Gold Coast is a different story because of its unique tourism proposition and population. It has a unique economic moat as a tourist destination....

 

The other thing is the changing dynamics of airport use. Years ago a few carriers used large airport space very inefficiently and flew high cost passengers with plenty of room at multiples of weekly wages.... Today the budget carriers are moving the bulk of passengers carrying far more pax per aircraft and using less terminal space due to fuller aircraft and low cost drive for efficiency. They lease a gate for under an hour and then vacate the gate for another user, which massively contributes to available airport capacity. But the secondary effect is it makes justifying new airports and terminals extremely difficult.

 

Asx:SYD owner of Sydney airport claim they are twenty years from economically justifying a second Sydney airport so its difficult to see how Brisbane can. Theres a case to argue they already have Bankstown and Camden... But i think we are talking large scale freight and Pax and if we where to count them then we would need to include those surrounding Brisbane already.

Jeez Doc, I though you would have done a bit of research instead of personal observation by now. Fact is 26 992 flights were delayed in 2013 at Brisbane airport. Looking a lot worse this year. Just check the facts mate. Brisbane is near or at compacity right now. Don't take my word for it, just google it.

The time taken getting checked in or getting through security isnt the problem. It is the jets taking off or landing on time. That judges airport performance and Like I have said previously, Brisbane is the 2 nd busiest single runway international airport in the world after Gatwick.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

I dropped my mum of for the Skytrans afternoon flight to Sydney today and the airport was full of retirees. Not a single person younger than me, I've never needed to fly on Skytrans but I did once manage to snag a free trip to Perth via Brisbane, 45minute leg, the time you save by flying from Toowoomba you lose waiting in Brisbane airport. There is a large chunk of the Toowoomba population that retired from Sydney.

 

As far at the freight market goes assuming that you are flying into Asia with a 747-400 you need to find up to 100,000kg+ of freight for a single plane. Oakey abattoir is the only place that produce that large amount of fresh meat, there is talk about doing chicken but there isn't a single farm I know of that can deliver that much product. There is also talk of doing Fresh cut flowers? It still seems a long way short of doing a plane a day.

 

I don't know who in Toowoomba takes that can accept 100,000 kg of air freight apart from AusPost. I don't know that they take that much.

 

It all looks like a long long term project. How much does a fully loaded 747 pay in landing fees?

 

 

[ExJourno]

FT... do you read what you write before posting?

 

Actually, do you read at all?

 

 

[ExJourno]

I dropped my mum of for the Skytrans afternoon flight to Sydney today and the airport was full of retirees. Not a single person younger than me, I've never needed to fly on Skytrans but I did once manage to snag a free trip to Perth via Brisbane, 45minute leg, the time you save by flying from Toowoomba you lose waiting in Brisbane airport. There is a large chunk of the Toowoomba population that retired from Sydney.

I'm going to try to make sense of this disjointed musing.

 

So, old people need the Toowoomba to Sydney leg? Specifically, old, retired people, who have nothing but spare time to catch whatever inconvenient flight time Skytrans has put out? Cool. Now, you think the rest of us might also like a pre breakfast flight with a same day return around dinner? Skytrans didn't offer that. Qantaslink will.

 

Not sure of the wait-time relevance... Toowoomba to Sydney/Melbourne/Hobart etc... from Wellcamp, not via Brisbane, is What Qantas will offer. And not having to drive two hours, allow an extra hour for traffic woes AND get there a further hour ahead? Wellcamp is sounding better and better.

 

As far at the freight market goes assuming that you are flying into Asia with a 747-400 you need to find up to 100,000kg+ of freight for a single plane...

So the only international freight flights will be 747-400s? Ooookay.

 

...but there isn't a single farm I know of that can deliver that much product. There is also talk of doing Fresh cut flowers? It still seems a long way short of doing a plane a day.

You aren't across the concept of mixed loads nor the idea that exporters send goods collated from multiple growers/producers, huh? This rubbish is akin to making out Pauls needs to be supplied by a single massive dairy farm or that Lindsay Bros would only fill a truck up with goods from a single wholesaler for a Brisbane to Melbourne run.

 

It all looks like a long long term project. How much does a fully loaded 747 pay in landing fees?

Really? A long term project? Imagine if John Wagner had said it was one, upfront, publicly, last year... I mean, how amazing would that have been...