MH17

[Guest Andys@coffs]

Andy,. . . .I've been to Kiev on 13 separate occasions, and travelled all around that country. this started around eight years ago, and we always had 3g coverage on the mobiles.,. . .never lost it, even out in the boondocks. Apart from some explosion damage, I imagine it's t pretty much the same nowadays, . . .my mates tell me it is anyway. . .Phil

Fair enough, but as we have seen from media reporting Ukraine has recordings of the telephone conversation, so I presume that they also control the civilian mobile phone solutions, I'm guessing that intelligence officers on both sides are unlikely to like the idea the idea of their side using civilian networks where their is a transmitter receiver involved and probably hope like hell that the other side does......

 

Anyway long time since I was in defence so things may well be different now no facebook or social media back then and if you had a success of some sort even if it had of existed then facebook/twitter probably wasn't the way youwould announced that success/failure back inside your organization

 

Andy

 

 

[facthunter]

Got new weapon. Gee It's a beauty. How does it work? . That Guy over there knows something about it. Look there's a plane. Lets see if it works. Wow we got it.

 

They shut up fast when they saw bodies everywhere. Putin has a problem with his dead sea fleet, but shoving lots of arms into somewhere to sort things out and lose control of who is doing what, is what we have here. He has to make it look like it's a local uprising of an oppressed people. The Russian economy is in freefall, due sanctions and other problems and the Ruskies like a leader who is tough . Putin plays that one but he is popular at home.

 

Regarding using THAT route, IF it was Company policy and no-one else (or almost no one else) was doing it. Malaysian Airlines have something to answer for. They are state owned (I believe). regarding going broke.

 

America shot down an A-300 flying out of IRAN with about the same number of passengers , sometime back near the straits of Hormuz and they had high tech warships and still misidentified it. These things should be viewed calmly. Not carry on like our Foreign Minister and PM are doing. I'm not saying it isn't a dreadful occurrence IT IS!!!. CIVILIANS should not be threatened . I can't work out how the Plane could not have been identified. The Russian air traffic network would have been expecting it . They were Just about to change over to their frequency.. Dreadful affair. Nev

 

 

[Phil Perry]

All pretty true Phil and where we live that is the default position but when you are in a warzone you think differently it might be noble to wait till they shoot at you so you know they are your enemy but it doesn't always end well.

Just another question for those who know better than me, these BUK setups have radar and sound pretty complex wouldn't they have a built in system to receive transponder codes?

 

Also wouldn't the radar give a pretty accurate altitude?

No, because they were designed and built 35 years ago, before secondary surveillance radar was introduced. I understand that it was also the threat of te "Blackbird" US recon aircraft which drove the Russians to develop the system, BUT at that point they obviously didn't have a "Mole" in the skunk works, so they had no idea that their 1,800 MPH missile couldn't really be expected to catch up with an aeroplane travelling at 3,430 MPH at 90,000 feet,. . . . .

 

Phil

 

 

[fly_tornado]

So Phil, can an Englishman tell the difference between a Ukrainian separatist and a Russian spy?

 

 

[dutchroll]

NO THEY WOULDN'T, because they are a bunch of uneducated, non military trained thugs, given control of a lethal machine and minimal training in it's use.

No need to shout.

I agree that the separatists are a bunch of uneducated thugs. Which is why I'm implying that the shooting down of the aircraft with an SA-11 did not happen unassisted by people who actually knew full well what they were doing.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

The Russians were boxed into a corner by the European Union, courting favour with Ukraine.. . .

.. and, along with big money and training from America, supported Ukraine ousting a twice democratically elected Government because they wanted trade alliance with Russia rather than the EU and America.

 

Ukraine will be very important in the near future to feed a lot of the World's population, this is about digging heels in now.

 

 

[facthunter]

Do we eat heels?/ Nev

 

 

[Gnarly Gnu]

I agree that the separatists are a bunch of uneducated thugs.

I understood many are Russian soldiers without identification tags. They might be trained but drunk?

 

But bex has apparently figured out it's the USA's fault of course, standard commie line again. Maybe the Jooos too? Illuminati? Newsflash bex Obama is simply too stupid for your complex plot line.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

But bex has apparently figured out it's the USA's fault of course, standard commie line again.

You just don't get it regardless of how many times I say it; I am on neither side.

 

I have contempt for most Governments and systems in the World, or rather the abuse of them, and the dirty little games they play that usually ends up killing 10s, 100s or 1000s, historically millions - it is you who takes side from years of being brainwashed with fear and bigotry - the standard "point the fingers at others so no ones notices how bad our own system" is technique. Your flippant use of the word "Commie" as a belittling tool is clear evidence - the rub is you don't even know what a Commie is, but it's apparently bad so it will do.

 

Maybe the Jooos too? Newsflash bex Obama is simply too stupid for your complex plot line.

Complex? It's all factual public information but you would rather ignorantly call me "Commie", twice now, than actually spend some time verifying your position, which you can't anyway ...

 

http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2012/198152.htm

 

http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/fs/167380.htm

 

http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/fs/193725.htm

 

http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/fs/2013/212989.htm

 

Here's the kicker;

 

"The United States attaches great importance to the success of Ukraine's transition to a democratic state with a flourishing market economy. U.S. policy is centered on realizing and strengthening a democratic, prosperous, and secure Ukraine more closely integrated into Europe and Euro-Atlantic structures".

 

 

Yup, the US is all for democracy! - well, as long as that democracy ends in the Party voted in that aligns with their selected partners. If not then we'll get ya one way or another you Commie Bastards (other power hate word options such as "Terrorists", "Separatists", etc may be inserted as required) ....

 

Just for kicks research the "Joos" in Ukraine, their history there, current position socially and in politics and how the, let me say it again, Democratically Elected Government's decision to align themselves with Russia would affect them.

 

http://rehmat1.com/2013/10/28/the-cost-of-american-wars-for-israel/

 

 

[Teckair]

you would rather ignorantly call me "Commie"

Not sure you can blame him if you want to insinuate this is the fault of the US.

 

 

[poteroo]

NOTAM

 

Is it possible to sight the specific NOTAM which gave advice about flight planning through the Ukraine region? The degree of compliance with this/these advisories would make interesting reading. Perhaps some airlines just plan via the shortest route - regardless? Does the degree of compliance with advisories account for the lower airfares which are obtainable with certain airlines. Maybe cheapest isn't safest?

 

 

[facthunter]

Cheapest could be the safest, but it is VERY unlikely. Safety costs money. There is a plot of many other airlines using that airspace around that time. Qantas stopped apparently some time ago. A more cautious approach

 

These aircraft had ALL filed (and had accepted) their flight plans. The Russian Air Traffic Control would be aware of that, (and the other) aircrafts intention to fly the route. Nev

 

 

[poteroo]

Cheapest could be the safest, but it is VERY unlikely. Safety costs money. There is a plot of many other airlines using that airspace around that time. Qantas stopped apparently some time ago. A more cautious approachThese aircraft had ALL filed (and had accepted) their flight plans. The Russian Air Traffic Control would be aware of that, (and the other) aircrafts intention to fly the route. Nev

Yes, but ATC can accept flight plans regardless of how many NOTAMS are current, or indeed for what subject - unless it's for a definite NO operationally. It's up to the PIC,(acting as representative of the company), to make the go/nogo decision.

 

I can't help but think that the wording and intent of the reported NOTAM will have significance when the liability claims are being prepared against MA.

 

 

[facthunter]

Diverting around the hazard is no big deal. Going around a big thunderstorm is of the same order of track distance increase. Nev

 

 

[dutchroll]

Qantas stopped flying to mainland Europe quite some time ago, having pulled out of all those routes which went via Singapore, Bangkok and Hong Kong, and gifting them to other competitor airlines. Also we have only operated much more limited flights to LHR (Heathrow) and only via Dubai - a route which does not cross Ukraine/Russia - since gifting virtually everything else to our former arch-competitor Emirates (and people wonder why Qantas is forecast to approach a $1 billion loss this FY when most other 1st-world airlines are coming into profit).

 

If Qantas were to imply that it has everyone's safety in mind because it doesn't fly over Ukraine, it would be highly disingenuous. And I fly for them.

 

A change in route to avoid the airspace is not always easy. Typically an alternate over, say Iran, instead of Afghanistan, could add nearly an hour to the flight time. Also the airline has to have overflight clearances for the countries the alternate route crosses. Lufthansa and KLM were among other airlines using the same route as MAS - and these are "top tier safety" airlines! So I suspect something was seriously awry with the threat assessments given to or processed by the airlines.

 

Although having said that, we were back flying regularly over Afghanistan not all that long after 9/11. The security advice was much the same as perhaps MAS had. The only "threat" was MANPADS like Stinger missiles & some Russian equivalents which are effective only against low level traffic, certainly not something at 35,000ft. Mind you, I would be more wary of civil war in former Soviet states because of the sheer number of fairly capable missile systems in various hands there.

 

 

[turboplanner]

There were quite a few news photos of the BUK type missile launchers before the incident and two owned aircraft earlier in the week.

 

For someone to fly over a 32,000 ft exclusion altitude at 33,000 in a War zone implies a belief that missiles have brakes,

 

While the tape makes it very clear that separatists fired the missile by mistake,it also makes it very clear that they were under Russian command at the time.

 

While we know who did it, we also know they were engaged n a war, so I'd agree the NOTAM will become important, but the loss of confidence in the airlines who blatantly flew through a war zone to save money, may well cost them more money in the short term.

 

 

[dutchroll]

You pretty much can't get from Asia to Europe without flying over a "war zone" somewhere. The India/Pakistan border area is a permanent war zone and they both have high tech air defence weapons. As is all of Afghanistan and its various borders. As is the Gulf area including the routes over Iran and Syria. Several countries require "Air Defence" clearance to fly over. Going up through Iran you actually have to talk to Air Defence Radar before the FIR boundary (actually I was always more worried about being shot down by the US Navy on that route, as they are no strangers to shooting down an airliner full of passengers with a surface-to-air missile).

 

It has been that way for a long, long time. It's a matter of airlines choosing the "least risky" war zone to fly over or near. Or go to Europe the long way via the USA.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

Remember the Iranian airliner was shot down by an American warship 1988? that was a casualty of protecting freedom of oil flows and democracy.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

 

 

[Ron5335]

As Maxwell Smart said so aptly after one of his successful missions (In summing up his job)

 

"It's a shame that we (Control) have to kill, maim and destroy, but we stand for everything that is good and decent in this world"

 

Fly-tornado......

 

From what I remember, the 1988 American Incident with only made headlines for a day or so !!!!!!!

 

 

[fly_tornado]

The thing that irritates me the most of this instead of explaining how the mining tax failed to pass the senate last Friday, Abbott is trying to sound like 2001 Bush and going ferral on Putin.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

[Gnarly Gnu]

that was a casualty of protecting freedom of oil flows and democracy.

Temporarily ignoring the fact this was a mistake they immediately confessed to and seeing as you have contempt for the use of oil and the freedom of democracy - both of which you benefit from each and every day - can you advise the measures you are taking to be more righteous? You have stopped using oil right? Planning to move into a non-democratic country soon?

 

Dutchroll - I'm sure you would know that Qantas loses money on many international routes so it isn't a matter of gifting treasures to your opponents when you are consistently losing money on them each day.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

typical imperialist apologist. you should know that oil is a leading contributor to global warming

 

 

[facthunter]

It really is too valuable to just burn. We will have wars over it. ( Already have) Most of the disinformation comes from interests who profit from preserving the current arrangement ( Do you like that PUN?) where most of the profit comes from the distribution of it. Solar costs have fallen below 25% of what they were a few years ago. Investment in coal and oil and gas is becoming a risky business. Prices will rise there as the easy stuff is mined first and the lower grades and more expensive later. The price of renewables gets lower and the sun is free. It is only a matter of time and the COSTS will be overwhelmingly in favour of a fossil fuel low use future. For mobility it has superior performance, but the efficiency is not high, and it has other uses than combusting it. Nev

 

 

[Phil Perry]

So Phil, can an Englishman tell the difference between a Ukrainian separatist and a Russian spy?

Dunno mate, . . . .I come from Southern Irish stock.