Dafydd Llewellyn Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 Yes we have, you might not have read them, and you might not have added up the forced landings per year, and they might not be in the format you expect, and they might not have been reported to the esoteric conclusion you or I would like, but RAA have recorded them, published them, and now as a result, the people the members elected to represent them have written to CASA asking them to take action.Those people by the way represent the members who want ignore buttons, call people Jab bashers, claim total reliability, and generally try to throw a spanner in the works of every discussion where people are trying to help. A typical example which turns people off trying to help was one of my posts where, after three years and a lot of combustion chamber heat failures, watercooled head conversion, and eventually reliability, I pointed out the melting point of steel and the difference between temperatures which are critical for water jackets and temperatures which are critical for combustion chambers and got a "funny" for it. I've concluded that if you want to have a progressive discussion where you are drawing on experienced and skilled people to help, this forum is not the ideal place to do it. I'd have to agree. Can you supply a link to those statistics, please? 1
motzartmerv Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 RAAus: 76 Accidents & Incidents Figures - 01/01/14 to 21/07/2014 Incidents - 40 Accidents - 36 Fatalities - 6 Locations: (Locations that had more than one) NSW - 24 (Goulburn: 3, Bankstown: 3, Wollongong: 2) QLD - 24 (Caboolture: 3, Archerfield: 3, Caloundra: 2) VIC - 19 (Moorabbin: 6, Tyabb: 2, Tooradin: 2) SA - 5 WA - 3 NT - 1 TAS - 0 ACT - 0 Overall Engine Problems Jabiru vs Rotax: 14 Jabiru vs 7 Rotax Most Common Problems: - Engine Troubles - Pilot Error: + Heavy Landings + Loss of Directional Control on Ground + Human Factors - Pilot Distracted Top 3 Aircraft to have an Accident/Incident in: Jabiru: 28 Foxbat: 4 Gazelle: 4 BREAKDOWN ------------------- Incidents: Rough Engine - 10 (4 Rotax, 6 Jabiru) Engine Failure - 7 (1 Rotax, 6 Jabiru) Pilot Error - 7 Airframe - 4 Prop - 2 Near Miss - 1 Fuel - 2 Undercarriage - 3 Aerobatics - 1 Fire - 1 Accidents: Beach Landing on Soft Sand - 1 Airframe Failure - 3 Heavy Landing - 9 Loss of Directional Control (On Ground) - 8 Engine Failure - 3 (2 Rotax, 1 Jabiru) Pilot Error - 7 Unknown - 3 Runaway Aircraft (No POB, Engine Running) - 1 Controlled Flight into Terrain - 1 Aircraft: Foxbat - 4 Eurofox - 2 Airborne Edge - 1 Airborne 912 - 2 Avid Flyer - 1 Bristell BRM - 1 Brumby 600 - 1 Cessna 162 - 1 Colyaer - 1 Super Petrel - 1 Sportstar - 1 Fisher Celebrity - 1 Fisher Mk1 - 1 Flight Design CTMC - 1 Flash PPC - 1 Fly Synthesis Storch - 1 Fly Synthesis Texan - 2 Lightwing - 1 Savannah - 2 Jabiru 160 - 7 Jabiru 120 - 3 Jabiru 170 - 7 Jabiru 200 - 1 Jabiru 230 - 6 Jabiru SK - 1 Jabiru SP - 2 Jabiru 400 - 1 Sonerai - 2 Morgan Sierra - 1 Pioneer - 2 Piper L4H - 1 Piper Sport - 1 Pipistrel - 1 Rallye - 1 SeaRay - 1 Skyfox Gazelle - 4 Sonex - 1 Tecnam P92 - 2 Tecnam P96 - 1 Wittman Tailwind - 1 Zenith CH200 - 1 Zenith 701 - 1 Zenith 750 - 1 1 1
fly_tornado Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 How many Rotax's are 2 strokes though? just sayin' 1
AVOCET Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 The threads need to be that valuable discussion to find a solution for the problems, and there have been some .. but they get lost in the chaff and members get ignored because of it.. even if they do have some positive ideas mixed up among then negative. Try seeing the personal inter loads as "entertaining ?" 1
jetjr Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 Yep, there is problems, I dont t read anyone saying theres not. But as been repeated again and again, those stats doesn't say whats wrong , just what happened or what was the end result. I read that maybe shouldnt fly near the east coast and jabirus are forgiving and survivable to outland. I and others complain about the hysteria regarding engine failures and forced landings and apparantly imminent death of a Jabiru pilot shortly. Put together accidents and injury vs engine or aircraft and maybe see different priorities for investigation. Luckily some busineses see value in developing this engine and we should see some good products come from it 1 1
Dafydd Llewellyn Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 RAAus: 76 Accidents & Incidents Figures - 01/01/14 to 21/07/2014Incidents - 40 Accidents - 36 Fatalities - 6 Locations: (Locations that had more than one) NSW - 24 (Goulburn: 3, Bankstown: 3, Wollongong: 2) QLD - 24 (Caboolture: 3, Archerfield: 3, Caloundra: 2) VIC - 19 (Moorabbin: 6, Tyabb: 2, Tooradin: 2) SA - 5 WA - 3 NT - 1 TAS - 0 ACT - 0 Overall Engine Problems Jabiru vs Rotax: 14 Jabiru vs 7 Rotax Most Common Problems: - Engine Troubles - Pilot Error: + Heavy Landings + Loss of Directional Control on Ground + Human Factors - Pilot Distracted Top 3 Aircraft to have an Accident/Incident in: Jabiru: 28 Foxbat: 4 Gazelle: 4 BREAKDOWN ------------------- Incidents: Rough Engine - 10 (4 Rotax, 6 Jabiru) Engine Failure - 7 (1 Rotax, 6 Jabiru) Pilot Error - 7 Airframe - 4 Prop - 2 Near Miss - 1 Fuel - 2 Undercarriage - 3 Aerobatics - 1 Fire - 1 Accidents: Beach Landing on Soft Sand - 1 Airframe Failure - 3 Heavy Landing - 9 Loss of Directional Control (On Ground) - 8 Engine Failure - 3 (2 Rotax, 1 Jabiru) Pilot Error - 7 Unknown - 3 Runaway Aircraft (No POB, Engine Running) - 1 Controlled Flight into Terrain - 1 Aircraft: Foxbat - 4 Eurofox - 2 Airborne Edge - 1 Airborne 912 - 2 Avid Flyer - 1 Bristell BRM - 1 Brumby 600 - 1 Cessna 162 - 1 Colyaer - 1 Super Petrel - 1 Sportstar - 1 Fisher Celebrity - 1 Fisher Mk1 - 1 Flight Design CTMC - 1 Flash PPC - 1 Fly Synthesis Storch - 1 Fly Synthesis Texan - 2 Lightwing - 1 Savannah - 2 Jabiru 160 - 7 Jabiru 120 - 3 Jabiru 170 - 7 Jabiru 200 - 1 Jabiru 230 - 6 Jabiru SK - 1 Jabiru SP - 2 Jabiru 400 - 1 Sonerai - 2 Morgan Sierra - 1 Pioneer - 2 Piper L4H - 1 Piper Sport - 1 Pipistrel - 1 Rallye - 1 SeaRay - 1 Skyfox Gazelle - 4 Sonex - 1 Tecnam P92 - 2 Tecnam P96 - 1 Wittman Tailwind - 1 Zenith CH200 - 1 Zenith 701 - 1 Zenith 750 - 1 Ta - that's a start, at last. A couple of points, if you can clarify the data: (1) The breakdown shows Overall Engine Problems (I assume this excludes fuel mismanagement) : Jabiru vs Rotax: 14 Jabiru vs 7 Rotax; which if I understand it, is made up of: Incidents: Rough Engine - 10 (4 Rotax, 6 Jabiru); Engine Failure - 7 (1 Rotax, 6 Jabiru), and Accidents: Engine Failure - 3 (2 Rotax, 1 Jabiru) I make the totals of that 13 Jabiru, 7 Rotax. (2) What are the total numbers of aircraft with Jabiru engines versus Rotax 4 - stroke engines? (3) What do we know about the causes of the engine problems (e.g. Through Bolts, valves, carby icing, etc)? (4) What are the figures for Rotax two-stroke and Rotax four-stroke, separately, please?
turboplanner Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 I'd have to agree. Can you supply a link to those statistics, please? https://www.raa.asn.au/ They have: The cumulative total numbers of all engines currently in service. The cumulative total of all the engine failures which were reported to them (so the real numbers will be higher) So they know the percentage failure/forced landing rate for all engines. They also know the same statistics for all aircraft, so for example would know the a particular makes failure rate in Bantam vs Jabiru etc. They publish incidents which were reported to them on a monthly basis; you, like I can collate the data yourself. It would shut a lot of people up, if RAA published to cumulative totals, and that would also put huge pressure on manufacturers of aircraft, engines and components to fix any issues fast. However the board members have reached their own conclusions and contacted CASA, and Dafydd has outlined the CASA process from there, and I'm supportive of the board's decision
skeptic36 Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 (2) What are the total numbers of aircraft with Jabiru engines versus Rotax 4 - stroke engines? Still doesn't tell you anything unless you know the hours flown for each one 1
motzartmerv Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 I cant access current figures as far as aeroplane numbers go. The only figures available are from 2012. Total RAAus registered aircraft was 3414 Total jabiru RAAUS registered 746 Michael monk stated in the last Magazine a total RAAUS aircraft register as 3110, this is not a definate figure though. We cant really compare figures across different years, but roughly 22% of RAA registered acft were jabs in 2012. Not sure about how many jab engines in other types, so would need those figures to get a real number , but even if we be conservative and 30% of all RAA acft are running jabs, the percentage of failures indicated above would be, less than favourable. In a nutshell, 1 third the engines, and more than double the TOTAL failure rate (reported).. I wouldnt take those odds to flemigton in November. 1
motzartmerv Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 Ive always thought, well, theres soooo many jab engines out there, of course they are gunna fail more often.. But if the total jab airframe numbers in 2012 are any indciation, the notion that the RAA is built on JABS, is not exactly an accurate description. They made up 22% of all RAA acft, which in itself is a very big percentage overall for one manufacturer, but not as high as I would have thought.
Dafydd Llewellyn Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 Well, if you are correct and 30% of 3110 are Jabiru motors, then we have 13 "engine problem" incidents & accidents in 933 aircraft with Jabiru engines. What time interval does this cover? As Skeptic points out, that still doesn't get a failure rate unless we have an average annual usage rate. Guessing some more, if the annual average utilisation were, say, 60 hours per year and those results were for one year, that works out at one engine problem for every 4300 hours. Once we get a failure rate, it's possible to make some sort of comparison. However if one supposes that the overall breakdown is something like 30% Jabiru, 60% Rotax and 10% other types, and fairly similar utilisation rates, one is looking at nearly four times the rate for Jabirus as for Rotaxes. Why has it taken so long for these numbers to emerge? I, for one, have been asking for them for quite a while. This is the sort of thing this forum needs to be doing. I'd still like to see a further breakdown into the type of engine problem - it's surely not asking too much to classify the failures according to what broke; e.g. crankshaft, valve, throughbolt, etcetera; that sort of factual information must also be available to RAA. The question of why it broke, is what needs the research - and I don't expect a body like RAA to be in a position to delve into that. This is the reason Ian Bent has been doing so much research, and why I am building an engine test cell. It's nice to know that the effort may be worth while. What are you lot doing about it? Complaining to Mummy may be about all RAA can reasonably do; but surely the rest of you can do a bit better than whinge? 2
motzartmerv Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 Im trying to track down some figures there Daffyd. I think I should be able to ask the question of RAA tech "How many Jab engine failures were the result of broken thru bolt" etc, and get a reasonably up to date answer. I dont think it will be that simple tho. Which is no comment on the RAA, just a comment on how difficult this sort of data base would be to maintain and quantify. There are several other factors here which would need ' factoring' into the stats to make them meaningful.
motzartmerv Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 Complaining to Mummy may be about all RAA can reasonably do; but surely the rest of you can do a bit better than whinge? Being consumers, are we expecting too much to have this all done BEFORE we buy the things? Or when we sign the dotted line, are we signing up to be engine testers, test pilots, problem solving engineers and statisticians? Thats fine, if its the case, but the product is not marketed that way.
turboplanner Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 Why has it taken so long for these numbers to emerge? It hasn't Dafydd, why are you attempting to guess by estimating possible figures based on what someone said recently? Even on this forum I presented much more comprehensive figures which included a lot more insight some years back.
bexrbetter Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 Go do your own thing by all means, and THEN tell us about it. Wow, I was thinking of saying the same thing to you, spooky or what ... I have designed, manufactured, marketed and sold other machinery and done quite well out of it actually and your attitude that I can't comment until I have my own engine on the market is ridiculous, how many engines have you or any one else in this forum placed on the market? . You blokes who come along and tell everyone how awesome you are because you take other people's work and spend all but a few hours fixing up the rough edges and then take the glory of someone else's thousands of hours and money invested should try stepping down from your plinths and try doing something yourself and standing behind it. 1 3
bexrbetter Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 If somebody wants to move faster than this process, go to it - but the message is, put up or shut up. I mentioned I have already paid for a process to investigate porting and I have offered to pay for a new set of heads to be 'porcupined' and tested in a post above and I have some other plans coming for which I have already organised engineering drawings and companies to accomplish, not to mention the time and money involved, so I'm at least a little active - and putting my money where my mouth is. You win by the way, your posts irritate me, back on ignore for you. 1
Oscar Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 Well, that IS good news. The more the merrier here, I suggest. You might, however, find it useful to learn the difference between a valve guide and a valve stem, before embarking on any wholesale and expensive development project.
Dafydd Llewellyn Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 It hasn't Dafydd, why are you attempting to guess by estimating possible figures based on what someone said recently? Even on this forum I presented much more comprehensive figures which included a lot more insight some years back. It has as far as I'm concerned; I've not been active on the website all that long. Please give me an indication of the thread on which you gave those data. I have to say, getting meaningful information is like getting blood out of a stone.
Dafydd Llewellyn Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 Being consumers, are we expecting too much to have this all done BEFORE we buy the things? Or when we sign the dotted line, are we signing up to be engine testers, test pilots, problem solving engineers and statisticians? Thats fine, if its the case, but the product is not marketed that way. You have a potential consumer protection organisation in the RAA - talk to them. 1
Guernsey Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 Peter did say the thread made him sickBut we know what makes that tick It's a subject involving EGT That ends up news on the ABC Today a problem of a cylinder nut That made the golfers afraid to putt Previously it was the flywheel bolt That made a few flyers revolt And now we leave it in the hands of Bent Lets hope for a resolve to all this vent! At least nobody can say that there is no rhyme nor reason for this. . Alan. 1 1
motzartmerv Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 You have a potential consumer protection organisation in the RAA - talk to them. I have, and will continue to.
Dafydd Llewellyn Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 More power to your arm. If they're serious about putting in a new computer system, a sorting routine for accident / incident reports should not be too difficult a thing - but don't load poor Darren up with it. 1
motzartmerv Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 I wont, hes busy running through oscars log books and stuff ay? 2
Dafydd Llewellyn Posted August 9, 2014 Posted August 9, 2014 Wow, I was thinking of saying the same thing to you, spooky or what ...I have designed, manufactured, marketed and sold other machinery and done quite well out of it actually and your attitude that I can't comment until I have my own engine on the market is ridiculous, how many engines have you or any one else in this forum placed on the market? . You blokes who come along and tell everyone how awesome you are because you take other people's work and spend all but a few hours fixing up the rough edges and then take the glory of someone else's thousands of hours and money invested should try stepping down from your plinths and try doing something yourself and standing behind it. If only it were that simple. I've spent a lifetime sorting out other people's problems; that's what professional engineers are for, mostly. It's meant doing things like spin testing, flutter testing and so on; and it's also involved a lot of plain slog. Haven't seen much glory in it, frankly. More like 99% perspiration plus a bit of sheer terror. It hasn't earned me the money to get an engine manufactured, though I have designed one. Being a CASA design signatory means you get to carry the can, mostly. 1
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now