Jabiru limitations

[Rolf]

I think it was stated in this forum that out of 2000 Jab engines in service only 50 reached TBO. Enough statistic for me. But I also understand that for a private owner doing 50 to 100h a year it might not be such a big issue. For TFT's it should.

 

 

[Oscar]

Fair?...No.. Accurate? I would hope so..

Ah, well, Merv - hope springs eternal! And like any spring, needs to be flexible...

 

For an opinion that is closer to the coal-face than any of us can possibly have, you might read: http://australianaviation.com.au/2014/10/forsyth-suggests-two-year-timeline-to-restore-industrys-relationship-with-casa/

 

Here's a sample:

 

In an indication of the lack of trust in Australia compared with other countries, Forsyth noted carriers such as British Airways and Easyjet freely sent the majority of their operational safety data through to their national regulator, something that would be unheard of here.

 

 

 

 

 

“I would never have done it in Qantas 10-12 years ago and you can be damn sure no one is going to do it in this country now,” Forsyth told delegates at the Regional Aviation Association of Australia (RAAA) national convention in the NSW Hunter Valley on Friday.

 

 

 

 

 

“Overseas, operators share some and in some cases operators share all of that in-house data with the regulator.”

 

 

 

 

 

“That’s not happening in Australia. In fact, the reverse is true.”

 

Forsyth said the industry’s view that the relationship with CASA was both inappropriate and unhealthy centred on the availability and use of safety data.

 

Forsyth was, as you are of course aware, the chairman of the 'Truss Review'. It appears that he doesn't share your vision of hope.

 

 

[BPN]

I think it was stated in this forum that out of 2000 Jab engines in service only 50 reached TBO. Enough statistic for me. But I also understand that for a private owner doing 50 to 100h a year it might not be such a big issue. For TFT's it should.

Rotax manufactured their 50,000th 912 in 2014. IE worldwide. would be interesting to know how many reach(ed) TBO? wonder if they have any stats?

 

(50,000 reference is from Wikipedia)

 

 

[qolbinau]

So if I interpret the ATSB statistics correctly, for every 10,000 flying hours there is approximately 1 extra RA-AUS Jabiru aircraft involved in an incident, serious incident or accident than an RA-AUS Rotax aircraft, or 1.3 extra compared to VH aircraft?

 

Is this a trivial difference? With such little variation I would expect such differences would exist within each of the categories if you were to cut the data by more variables. I'm not sure if these differences warrant CASA's actions.

 

Is the raw data publicly available?

 

 

[motzartmerv]

Yes the Forsyth report is very damming of casa. Was there a section in casa falsifying statistics on which they based their safety recommendations?

 

Do we have any evidence at all that casa have told porkys?

 

Not that I've seen. It seems the report while scathing of casa, falls short of producing any evidence that would indicate casa are " being dishonest" or lying in their quoted stats.

 

I'm happy to be corrected of you have a report or a quote.. Or a poem or cliche that can provide evidence of ANYTHING ????

 

 

[motzartmerv]

Forsyth noted carriers such as British Airways and Easyjet freely sent the majority of their operational safety data through to their national regulator, something that would be unheard of here. 

 

So, the report confirms that there is a "lack of reporting" problem in Australia..interesting considering a few posts ago you bit TP for talking about "un reported" cases of failures. Apparently the Forsyth report agree's with him.

 

 

[turboplanner]

I seem to recall that you posted stats, Turbs, then immediately stated that they were invalid because of all the 'unreported' cases you always claim. If they are 'unreported', then how do you validate that they exist? Since CASA has not made its 'Jabiru' data publicly available for scrutiny, how do we know whether they are valid?

For your benefit Oscar, and for the benefit of Facthunter and Biggles who found your post "informative":

 

I have repeatedly said I was quoting from official, publicly released RAA figures.

 

I have also mentioned that these figures are a minimum, because there will be unreported cases out there.

 

Just because I mentioned that there are unreported cases and we don't know the volume HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE RAA figures and certainly does not invalidate them.

 

In insinuating "all the 'unreported' cases you always claim" somehow is something I've cooked up and should "validate", you'll see some of them in the three main threads on this subject, and no one knows how many have not been reported. If you feel this is important, you could ask CASA to investigate under- reporting, but that would only make the situation worse.

 

If you wish to discuss any separate CASA figures or any ATSB figures, that's fine, but don't drag me into those. In my opinion they are between CASA, ATSB and Jabiru.

 

So the figures I posted, which are compelling as they are, are RAA figures, and are not invalidated.

 

 

[turboplanner]

I don't know. Perhaps you could ask TP. He reckons he has the stats

I'll say it again for you Gandalph, I posted RAA figures. You are talking about, and have posted information on ATSB figures so you would need to study the source of the figures in the ATSB report.

 

I notice ATSB are quoting airline type usage = per 10,000 hours, and point out that a recreational pilot averaging 50 hours per year would tkae 200 years to make the 10,000 hours, so not all that useful as a recreational tool.

 

 

[gandalph]

Gandalph, your "snake oil" comments would be referring to official, published, RAA records.

No. Wrong again.

 

 

[gandalph]

I think it was stated in this forum that out of 2000 Jab engines in service only 50 reached TBO. Enough statistic for me. But I also understand that for a private owner doing 50 to 100h a year it might not be such a big issue. For TFT's it should.

Well I'd have to ask the question Where did those figures come from. I'd be surprised if someone went to the trouble of contacting all 2000 owners. If the figure can't be substantiated then it is heresay, rumour, speculation and has no value.

 

 

[motzartmerv]

Just like the "phony casa figures" :) just sayin.

 

 

[turboplanner]

No. Wrong again.

Here's your post: "

 

"Snake oil is an expression that originally referred to fraudulent health products or unproven medicine but has come to refer to any product with questionable or unverifiable quality or benefit. By extension, a snake oil salesman is someone who knowingly sells fraudulent goods or who is himself or herself a fraud, quack, charlatan, or the like."

 

So what's its relevance then?

 

 

[planesmaker]

CASA's handling of this has done nothing in respect of under reporting, rather, it provides more incentive for more under reporting in the future. Legalities aside, who would want to tell CASA anything? If it means heavy hand of CASA will be upon you?

 

 

[turboplanner]

CASA appear to me to have approached this in a non-prescriptive way which could mean that your own heavy hand could be upon yourself.

 

 

[gandalph]

I'll say it again for you Gandalph, I posted RAA figures. You are talking about, and have posted information on ATSB figures so you would need to study the source of the figures in the ATSB report.I notice ATSB are quoting airline type usage = per 10,000 hours, and point out that a recreational pilot averaging 50 hours per year would tkae 200 years to make the 10,000 hours, so not all that useful as a recreational tool.

Yes TP. You're shouting again. Saying the same thing over and over but louder and louder does NOT add credibility to the message

 

Have you thought of using simple division of the figures provided by the ATSB to get figures that are more "useful"?

 

10,000/50 = 200. So dividing 3.9 by 200 gives an incident rate of 0.0195 per 50 hours. Are those figures more useful to you as a recreational tool?

 

 

[gandalph]

CASA appear to me to have approached this in a non-prescriptive way which could mean that your own heavy hand could be upon yourself.

I think Daz covered that earlier

 

 

[gandalph]

Here's your post: ""Snake oil is an expression that originally referred to fraudulent health products or unproven medicine but has come to refer to any product with questionable or unverifiable quality or benefit. By extension, a snake oil salesman is someone who knowingly sells fraudulent goods or who is himself or herself a fraud, quack, charlatan, or the like."

 

 

 

So what's its relevance then?

TP you'll just have to work that one out for yourself. To quote you "you can forget about me doing your work for you."

 

 

[turboplanner]

So if I interpret the ATSB statistics correctly, for every 10,000 flying hours there is approximately 1 extra RA-AUS Jabiru aircraft involved in an incident, serious incident or accident than an RA-AUS Rotax aircraft, or 1.3 extra compared to VH aircraft?Is this a trivial difference? With such little variation I would expect such differences would exist within each of the categories if you were to cut the data by more variables. I'm not sure if these differences warrant CASA's actions.

 

Is the raw data publicly available?

I mentioned on another post that using airline figures and applying those to recreational pilots, a person flying 50 hours per year will take 200 years to reach 10,000 hours.

 

If you are interested in the current Limitations, then the figures you want are CASA figures.

 

 

[turboplanner]

I think Daz covered that earlier

In no way was I making any sexual reference. Contrary to the clowns around, I was inferring that the consequences of any negligence are likely to be self inflicted, rather than coming in the form of prosecution by CASA.

 

 

[turboplanner]

TP you'll just have to work that one out for yourself. To quote you "you can forget about me doing your work for you."

Good, I've done that and decided it was another of your time wasters.

 

 

[gandalph]

Just like the "phony casa figures" :) just sayin.

C'mon Merv! Someone said on the forum that "out of 2000 jabiru engines in service only 500 reached TBO" So it stands to reason that if I post here that out of 2000 jab engines in service 75% reach TBO my figures would be believed and be quoted as fact somewhere down the line? Really? Why not? My rumour is just like the other one i.e Useless and without a shred of credibility

p.s. Wanna buy a good used Harbour bridge?

 

 

[turboplanner]

Yes TP. You're shouting again. Saying the same thing over and over but louder and louder does NOT add credibility to the messageHave you thought of using simple division of the figures provided by the ATSB to get figures that are more "useful"?

10,000/50 = 200. So dividing 3.9 by 200 gives an incident rate of 0.0195 per 50 hours. Are those figures more useful to you as a recreational tool?

No they are not.

 

The RAA figures are useful in that they can be broken down into Jab engine sizes and times, Rotax two strokes can be separated, and diferences can be more accurately assessed, just by looking at the numbers.

 

 

[qolbinau]

No they are not.The RAA figures are useful in that they can be broken down into Jab engine sizes and times, Rotax two strokes can be separated, and diferences can be more accurately assessed, just by looking at the numbers.

Apologies if this was posted recently, this thread is now becoming a monster so it's difficult to find things. But where can I access this data?

 

 

[gandalph]

Good, I've done that and decided it was another of your time wasters.

 

 

[turboplanner]

It doesn't seem so long ago that Andy posted the basic details of the Limitations.

 

While there has been fertile volume about who hates CASA and how CASA "got it wrong" I haven't seen much traffic on how people are going tp practically handle the present situation, which from a Public Liability is quite complex, since more liability rests with the operator than previously, and mixed levels of risk exist in FTFs with mixed fleets, how hiring pilots are going to be briefed, how FTFs are going to ensure those briefing methods don't leave them carrying the baby etc

 

A lot of things to be thought through.