Jabiru limitations

[Russ]

Winners are grinners..........me face is aching from grinnin.

 

 

[gandalph]

Yes and..... Nobody had any clue this would be the result,....

Well they damn well should have!

 

Never mind the name calling and finger pointing. It's a bit late for that now. Whoever started this process should have done a few "what if" exercises, I dunno, call it Risk Assessment if you like, before they, whoever "they" are, launched the process. It seems that everybody, after the event, realises that CASA had it in for Rec Aviation and that the outgoing Director dislikes us with a passion. How come nobody knew this before? How come nobody took that into account before?

 

 

[Oscar]

Merv, I have no idea what you smoke, but it must be damn expensive.

 

Merry Christmas.

 

 

[motzartmerv]

Merv, I have no idea what you smoke, but it must be damn expensive.Merry Christmas.

When all else fails, just chuck out rubbish personal attacks. The writing was on the wall for a year before this Casa bombshell. If you didnt have your head firmly planted in the sand, you would have seen it, and headed the warnings.

 

Merry xmass to you too.. We should get together and share some some EGGnog? Maybe throw a few EGGS on the barbie? I reckon that could be an EGGsellent time.

 

Gandy, I feel the same. I dont think any of us are around the deeper issues and the back stories.

 

However, looking purely at the stats, Recreational flying has had a spike in recent years with regards to fatals and serious accidents. Someone, somewhere could, should be pushing for something to happen.

 

perhaps Jab are the "easy out" for CASA? I dunno.

 

 

[Camel]

December email just arrived from RAA, it's official CASA is not behaving very good.

 

 

[frank marriott]

No

 

Who wants a wager? Ill bet within 3 months we see Rotax optioned in jabs. $10. Cybershake on that!!

Not in mine, $10,000 not $10 if you want to take it.

 

 

[frank marriott]

And this thread runs down the drain like the last one. I woundered how long it would take but I will leave it now before I get moderated again, only some can continue with crap it seems.

 

 

[motzartmerv]

Harden up frank. Just a bit of jesting, nothing un usual.

 

My wager is that jab will start optioning Rotaxes, not that you will take the option. You wouldnt consider a rotax in your Jab if it was an option at your next ..cough... 2000 hourly replacement?

 

 

[Frankie]

From the RAA Christmas newsletter just received by email.

 

"Note to members on Jabiru issues

 

As most people are aware, CASA published a draft instrument on 13 November 2014 which would have the effect of restricting the operations of aircraft with a Jabiru powerplant. This would affect more than 1000 RA-Aus registered aircraft and have an adverse impact on some two thirds of our flight training facilities.

 

Since the publication of this draft instrument RA-Aus has been working hard to understand the justification for these restrictions. We have, for some time, known that Jabiru engines have a higher tendency for failure than their Rotax counterpart and welcome any appropriate changes that would improve their reliability. We would also welcome any measures that result in improved reliability and safety of any aspect of our fleet. Having said this we are troubled by the process employed by CASA and especially the lack of transparency in terms of the implementation of these proposed measures.

 

RA-Aus has repeatedly requested the information used to justify statements made by CASA that claim the failure rate is increasing. We have also requested the analysis of said data in order to assess the veracity of these claims.

 

On 17 December 2014, almost five weeks after the draft instrument was published, RA-Aus received the data and was provided one, yes one, working day to respond. As one would expect we would have liked much more time to assess the data, understand the analysis and then form an opinion on the suitability of the proposed measures, however, regardless of taking some five weeks to provide the data, CASA allowed one day. In light of this our response was somewhat rushed.

 

Despite this, RA-Aus was able to note that the data provided to CASA on Jabiru engine failures only covered one partial year. The only time series data made available to us (although not provided to us) was via the ATSB. That is, no engine failure data beyond the beginning of 2014 was used by CASA to justify their position and they left us to infer what data the ATSB had provided.

 

With reference to the latter, RA-Aus has contested the validity of the ATSB data on the basis that it shows a decline in the hours flown by the RA-Aus fleet. This is in direct contrast to Government published figures which show a doubling in the number of hours flown since 2000.

 

This led us to a simple conclusion – CASA has not undertaken robust analysis on reliable data to establish with any degree of accuracy that the failure rate of Jabiru engines is increasing over time. This is despite their statement that they have found statistically significant evidence in support of their claims.

 

RA-Aus’ position is, as stated above, that the failure rate of Jabiru engines is greater than that of Rotax engines but that it is not worsening as per the unsubstantiated statement made by CASA.

 

In light of this RA-Aus responded to CASA, within their incredibly tight and unrealistic timeframe, to state that we oppose their draft instrument and suggested an alternative approach to addressing the real concerns. While CASA acknowledged that our response had merit within 24 hours of receipt they proceeded with the restrictions without due consideration of our arguments.

 

While the restrictions imposed on our members are less stringent than those originally proposed, our opinion is that they are still inappropriate. Furthermore, CASA has remained evasive in terms of providing information relating to what rate of failures would be deemed acceptable and so we remain uninformed as to what point the restrictions will be lifted other than the statement on the CASA website regarding a review by CASA early in the New Year and the six month validity of the proposed Instrument. We will continue to work with CASA and Jabiru in an attempt to address these issues, however, we can’t provide further information at this point.

 

RA-Aus is extremely worried about these actions and what this may mean for private aviation in Australia. Being the fastest growing sector of aviation it concerns us that unilateral action has been taken by the regulator that is not backed up by robust evidence which suggests the action is justified. It worries us that this precedent has the potential for further restrictions that may not be warranted based on incomplete data, deficient analysis and/or misleading claims. We also have concerns about the implications of CASAs decision and what it means for all self-administered aviation organisations as Part 149 is implemented.

 

RA-Aus will focus our efforts on improving safety in our sector by reviewing training methods and practices, improving our education programs, communicating safety findings (where permitted by law) and so forth. We will also remain very focussed on the outcomes of CASAs recent actions, the Governments recent announcements about the recommendations of the ASRR report and continue to hold CASA to the same high standards that they demand of the aviation industry."

First off, I own and fly a Jabiru aircraft / engine and fully understand the limitations of the engine and the risks of any other aircraft engine - none are perfect. From what I recall during RA-Aus training don't you already sign a waiver as a dangerous activity no matter what aircraft you train in....

 

I believe the best option for RA-Aus moving forward is to pick a date, lets say 3 months from the initial notification of limitations from CASA and perform a full audit of the RA-Aus membership (10,000 members?)for the following data: Hours flown for period and engine type, then compare reported incident reports and formulate their own data to put an argument forward on failure rates. Repeat for the next three months, that will provide six months of data.

 

From my observations this topic is driven by politics and not facts, but it has improved safety - how many incidents have there been in the last 8 weeks - not many regarding jabiru engines?

 

And after heavy handed CASA regulation future incidents will be less likely reported......

 

 

[Guest Maj Millard]

Who wants a wager? Ill bet within 3 months we see Rotax optioned in jabs. $10. Cybershake on that!!

Well that would certainly shut CASA up wouldn't it ?...

 

 

[jetjr]

Yep and the haters can feel happy inside

 

Meanwhile the thousand or so existing owners are still shafted

 

Merv you did flag the action, did the myth become reality by the amount of hot headed claims floating around?

 

Had we all "heeded" your warning what was we should have done?

 

Theres a difference between not seeing or experiencing problems and having head in the sand.

 

I recall clearly myself and others asking more vocal members and board members to watch what they said, least it bring on unwanted or excessive action from CASA

 

 

[gandalph]

Well that would certainly shut CASA up wouldn't it ?...

No. It would just shift their attention to Rotax.

 

 

[motzartmerv]

Merv you did flag the action, did the myth become reality by the amount of hot headed claims floating around?

Yea. Thats it. CASA are reacting to hot headed claims. Just ignore the 45 failures in one year jet, its all about the 'hot headed' claims ay? Got something to offer?

 

 

[motzartmerv]

Have you guys even read the instrument?

 

 

[jetjr]

Yes, Have you read the update from RAA?

 

They dont appear to back CASA data which you cling to, it hasnt been shared and theres some harsh claims made to its creditability especially considering action taken.

 

Just CASA and you standing behind those numbers it seems.

 

If they are only looking at last few months data Id say Rotax numbers arent nearly as far behind Jabiru as many might hope

 

Other data sets show Rotax failures are increasing and Jabiru decreasing

 

Id suggest CASA are highly swayed by rhetoric and rumour, especially when pushed by CFI and board members from inside RAA

 

Have people worked out that Jabiru isnt likely to hurt the most from this? They have options open to them.

 

Owners dont and the one company actually trying to fix it is being ignored by CASA.

 

 

[motzartmerv]

I'm not clinging to anything jet.

 

I think if you think Casa are reacting to cfi's and board members and making up numbers , your clutching at some serious straws dude.

 

You honestly believe Casa would act without the facts ? Not the Casa I know.

 

 

[cheyenne]

The major issue is that you can not compare a water cooled engine with a air cooled engine they are totally 2 different types of engines.

 

 

[Guest Maj Millard]

The board only acts co-jointly not individually. There is a majority of current board members present who own or operate Jabs so I don't feel you can blame board members for influencing CASA in their decision. As I said some months ago and took flak for doing so, I still believe CASA has a 'hidden agenda' and the introduction of the RPL is all part of their grand plan. They are out to weaken the structure of RAA in any way they can, especially now when it is at its strongest with the current team we have.....they don't want us to grow strong and succeed.

 

 

[geoffreywh]

BS....They are both aero engines , both claim to have a engine life of 2000 hours, both should be as reliable as humanly possible given an economic framework. They are two different types of engine in one way though. One works the other doesn't

 

 

[gandalph]

The board only acts co-jointly not individually.

Methinks he doth protest too much.

 

 

[motzartmerv]

Oh god. Here we go. Who can we blame, who's the culprit. Tiring, boring, and not helpful.

 

 

[Happyflyer]

For the sake of a great Australian success story, I hope Jabiru have the resources to fight this ruling and that Jabiru owners and others consider helping the company in this regard. CASA either must be proven wrong, in court or elsewhere, or CASA must be forced to rescind this action by Jabiru taking positive action to address whatever concerns CASA have. The company could do worse than being totally open and honest with us all. A bit of political pressure won't hurt either. I hope the member for Bundaberg has some clout. For the record I don't own or fly a Jabiru and probably never will but they have had a big, positive impact on Australian aviation and are to be congratulated on that.

 

 

[turboplanner]

There's really no point in regurgitating theories, propaganda and skewed statistics now.The Safety Regulator has made a decision; it's time to man up and work with the situation which will shortly exist.

CASA didn't make a prescriptive decision, such as grounding aircraft, and although I've mentioned performance standards and duty of care many times, the current situation seems to have left some people spinning in uncertainty and somehow believing that campaigning will change things.

 

Motz seems to be the only operator publicly across the situation.

 

There are now three standards of operational safety:

 

1. GA with its extensive safety infrastructure which would be regarded as the "Industry Benchmark"

 

2. RAA operations with a lower standard of safety, and an associated "Warning placard"

 

3. The aircraft subject to this limitation, associated with further and more detailed warnings

 

Things have changed dramatically in terms of your financial protection if you are in category three, so it's time to get some professional advice before you even start the engine, and you aren't going to get it on a forum site.

We are not moving forward. This is what I posted yesterday morning, yet posters are still going back over information already posted in two previous threads.

 

Debating the relative merits of different engines, second guessing CASA "motives", even suggesting hidden agendas by the previous Director of Aviation Safety, and burying statistics in "hours of operations" didn't convince CASA then and are not going to convince CASA now.

 

There may be some debate about the 45 number in the last twelve months, but be careful what you are shouting about.

 

I was certainly aware, from statistics, that RAA had a fatality issue as far back as 2008.

 

John Gardon extracted the figures, and it is high enough year by year to start to affect Insurers' decisions to staying in the market, and in fact from memory about 24 declined to make offers a year or so ago.

 

Within those fatalities, a surprising number related to an engine failure, followed by the aircraft virtually dropping out of the sky from altitude, i.e. not achieving a glide.

 

In those cases, the strength of the fuselage was irrelevant because the pilot never got to find out by actually trying to land in rough country.

 

I'm not sure if RAA have published an average hours per year per pilot, but if for example it was 50 hours per year, then there is no point in trying to minimise the visibility of the issues by burying them in a "per hours flown" mask, such as "x" per 1,000 hours flown, when RAA operations have nothing like high-hour operation.

 

So far I have referred to the general RAA fleet, not Jabiru powered aircraft, and I have referred to pilot error, not specific aircraft error.

 

With a record like the figures provided by John Gardon therefore, forced landings by RAA pilots have an unacceptable risk of ending in a fatality, and where ANY particular aircraft that starts to demonstrate a trend of forced landings, both RAA and CASA have a duty of care to manage that situation.

 

You might be Houdini, you might never have had a forced landing in 30 years, but the statistics that are driving the current regulator actions are based on the whole group, where history shows that not everyone pulls off forced landings.

 

We then come to the discussion on whether Jabiru is being victimised, or whether there is an agenda out there by "Jabiru bashers". If you look at the published statistics by RAA over the five years I studied, and if you take the fleet numbers of approximately 2000 aircraft, with approximately 1000 Jabiru and 1000 others, the statistics I studied show a forced landing trend in Jabiru.

 

You are welcome to argue about my statistics, because they have no official significance, however, if you want to continue the crusade against CASA, be aware that even if the "45" figure was found to be somehow incorrect, then CASA only have to go to the ALREADY PUBLISHED figures of RAA to justify their action, and not only that, but since RAA have only been able to publish REPORTED engine failures, they still have the option of conducting an inquiry into the number of aircraft which have been advertised for sale with disparate TT on engine and frame.

 

Better for the manufacturer to fix the problems as quickly as possible, and move on.

 

In the meantime the biggest issue is carrying out your duty of care if you are affected by the Limitation.

 

The argument that your risk has not been increased by the Limitation, isn't very safe in my opinion, since a new level of awareness has been published.

 

Motz is right on the money in terms of evaluation how he is going to operate. I said I would try to get some professional information for him, have had one meeting, and I'm now trying to get an affordable package of PL specialist legal advice available around the country, for pilots and FTFs, which has been interesting over the last few days, but looks like rolling over past the holiday season.

 

 

[coljones]

First off, I own and fly a Jabiru aircraft / engine and fully understand the limitations of the engine and the risks of any other aircraft engine - none are perfect. From what I recall during RA-Aus training don't you already sign a waiver as a dangerous activity no matter what aircraft you train in....I believe the best option for RA-Aus moving forward is to pick a date, lets say 3 months from the initial notification of limitations from CASA and perform a full audit of the RA-Aus membership (10,000 members?)for the following data: Hours flown for period and engine type, then compare reported incident reports and formulate their own data to put an argument forward on failure rates. Repeat for the next three months, that will provide six months of data.

From my observations this topic is driven by politics and not facts, but it has improved safety - how many incidents have there been in the last 8 weeks - not many regarding jabiru engines?

 

And after heavy handed CASA regulation future incidents will be less likely reported......

As a first pass RAA Tech has data on total hours, annual hours, total landings and annual landings on each registered aircraft and each engine. RAA presented a subset, movements, in relation tpthe failure rates of Jabiru and Rotax engines. That it didn't do the subsets in relation to annual hours is a bit sad. For a complete ananlysis of engine reliability it would be of value if RAA did some analysis on total engine age per engine by engine make, total landings per engine by engine make, and ditto for annual figures. This data is immediately available as RAA collects it with each rego and renewal. These base line figures can then be correlated with total and annual engine failures collected through registrations, manufacturer data and ATSB reports to come up with a variety of quite valuable stats. This data collection and analysis can't be pushed back on the manufacturers solely as there are many manufacturers who install a variety of engines but after sale RAA is the only one collecting data on engines in operation because it collects the initial and annual registration data.

 

 

[Guest Ornis]

I am going to repeat myself knowing I am dealing with a cheering cult of jeering Jabirooters.

 

A Jabiru engine is a pig in a poke. Then reason apologists and wishful-thinkers can argue "sadistics" is that nobody outside Jabiru really knows what's happening.

 

Hundreds of new engines were duff, and returned. There is no evidence they're any better now, but knotty problems are nicely veneered.