What would you do?

[Admin]

Situation: You are flying at 4,000ft and approx 15mins from your destination with clouds of 4/8 Oktas at 3,000 ft.

 

Suddenly you experience total electrical failure. You spend 5mins trying to get the electrics going by checking fuses/breakers etc with no success. You then look outside and you find that for the last 5mins you have been flying over a cloud blanket of 8/8 Oktas.

 

What would you do in each of these individual 5 Scenarios:

 

1. In the situation described above except you did get all your electrics working properly
    
    
   
2. In the situation described above
    
    
   
3. In the situation described above and you suddenly see a very small opening that would hardly fit an aircraft in the cloud layer ahead of you?
    
   
4. In the situation described above and you luckily had installed an AH that is not electric so it is working perfectly
    
   
5. In the situation described above and you suddenly remember that when you were doing your flight planning the Freezing level was 3,000ft. (this one will test you - if it is possible!)
    
    
   

 

Just thought I would throw some wobblies into the forum because these are the type of things that are not "in the book" and even I would like to know what others would do ;)

 

 

[PaulN]

OK, I'll stick my neck out and hopefully, if I get it wrong someone might offer a sensible correction from which we all may learn something.

 

Funny you should refer to total failure of electrics ... been there, done that as flying past and west of YSCB under the 3500' step, but thankfully no cloud. Due to faulty rectifier/regulator the electrics were being powered only by the battery. As it failedthe first thing to drop out was the Flydat, then came the GPS, however, by isolating all systems except radio we managed to keep this alive for remainder of the flight home. More than once Idid a little deepthinking about the function of ignition electrics for assurance that the Rotax would keep purring. This must have been obvious as my passenger with a worried lookhad to ask "Is everything OK?"

 

Now to your conundrum. Firstly, according to the AIP ENR 19.2, and from the good training we originally rec'd, it is inadvisable to continue a VFR flight above denser than SCT cloud (3 - 4 oktas). So, if I found myself in this situation I would be very conscious of keeping an eye to changes in cloud density (or rather the ability to take accurate fixes of ground features) around me ... situational awareness.

 

In response to ...

 

1. In the situation described above except you did get all your electrics working properly ... I might havefive options here, the first three assuming I have a working GPS on board.

 

(a) Being at 4000' and only 15 mins from destination I might select thatairport frequency in the hope of finding someone there to report the localmets. At say 120kts this places me 30nm out and at 4000' I should have aVHsignal. If lucky enough to get a reliably good report,then continue inbound track with reference to GPS while keeping clear of cloud; or

 

(b) Request ATC for a mets report ofmy destination and if available and satisfactory continue inbound track with reference to GPS while keeping clear of cloud; or

 

© Immediately turn 180 degrees to back track to known visibility, continue until safe to descend, set GPS for nearest alt airport (if no GPS get a fix from the map then locate the nearest alt airport) andput down to safety; or

 

(d) Immediately turn 180 degrees to back track to known visibility, continue until safe to descend, assuming xpdr on board and ATC has a paint ofmy a/c, seek assistance for directions to nearest alternative airport and put down to safety; or

 

(e)Immediately turn 180 degrees to back track to known visibility, continue until safe to descend, find a suitable location for a precautionary landing (airstrip, paddock, etc) and put down to safety.

 

Of these, the first three are illegal (no VFR over 8/8 cloud), however as I'm already there I can't be any more illegal if I continueto fly out ofthe present situation to known safe air. The real consideration here of course is whether it's smart to continue ... what if the electrics drop out again? Good airmanship??

 

2. In the situation described above ... If my electrics cannot be restored I have only one sensible option and that's (e) above.

 

3. In the situation described above and you suddenly see a very small opening that would hardly fit an aircraft in the cloud layer ahead of you? ... This barely needs asking. Don't even think about it, turn back andresort to(e) above.

 

4. In the situation described above and you luckily had installed an AH that is not electric so it is working perfectly ... This is a forum fundamentally for RA-Aus pilots and friends isn't it? Then flying in IMC conditions is not only illegal but stupid, even ifI'm smart enough to use an AH. Besides, haveI any idea for how far these conditions will persist? WillI be able to get down atmy destination, if indeedI can find it?

 

5. In the situation described above and you suddenly remember that when you were doing your flight planning the freezing level was 3,000ft. (this one will test you - if it is possible!) ... Being well above the cloud, even though the OAT may be minus 2 it is not likelyI will experience icing. And sometimes in a situation like thisone may find a temperature inversion puttingone at above freezing level temp. We often encounter this over the Snowies. WhatI won't want to do is fly near or in the cloud as icing then will be a very real risk. Again, resort to (e) above.

 

In all of these scenarios, the obvious thing to do when safely down is locate the cause of the electrics failure and rectify before further flight.

 

Just a note from another personal experience. Once, when flying from Newcastle to Cooma part ofmy NAIPS submittedflt planwas to climbto 6500' over Wollongong and track just OCTA past YSCB to awaypoint (Michelago) between Canberra and Cooma (106nm). As I would be tracking over tiger country I engaged Flight Following with ATC for this leg. The f/cast was for SCT cloud at 4500but half way along the leg the cloud beneath us began to thicken. So I tuned into YSCB ATIS to hear that local cloud over Canberra was SCT at 1500 and SCT at 2500 sounding hopeful for the cloud to thin out again soon. About then ATC handed us off to Canb App. On request Can App adv'd cloud o'cast over Canberra. I asked if they could check if any a/c near Cooma could give a report on cloud there. No good, however another a/c called in advising cloud over Goulburn was SCT. Using the mobile I called an aviator friend at Cooma and his advice was to divert as cloud was about 7/8 there. On request to Can App theycleared us for diversion to YGLB through controlled air and with permission to turn left and right as needed to negotiate cloud. So, yep ATC will help and quite happily. After taking on some late breakfast we continued on under the cloud to touch down safely at YCOM in time for lunch.

 

Paul

 

PS Sorry if this is too wordy but a good question is worth a thorough answer ... I only hope I'm not giving anyone a bum steer.

 

PaulN

 

 

[Admin]

Paul

 

Can I be the devils advocate here and what I say is no way intended to be negative, nastyor anything else. I do this in the interest of challenging you, and anyone else, to what they think they may do.

 

You are able to think of this in the comfort of your home whereas in a real situation you may think differently. For example you haven't come up with an idea that would be available to most people in this situation and I doubt you may think of it in your home but in an aircraft in this situation I am willing to bet you would - not giving this away just yet but it is a valuable tool.

 

Now most of your scenarios is in a turn back mindset. You have made a dangerous assumption that you flew into the cloud head on, in otherwords you were flying into a straight headwind. If you turned back you may end up in a more dangerous situation by simply using up available fuel. i.e.

 

 

By the time you turn back the cloud has moved forward and you would continue flying on top of the cloud and say after 10mins your mind would start to panic as you would not quickly understand the above situation like "Why am I still flying above cloud?" - you state in most of your scenarios "Turn back to where you had known visibility". Remember you don't have a GPS because you have an electrical failure (ok - the escape goat here is a portable GPS) so you are relying entirely on your navigation skills of only time and track as you can't use land marks - you would severely question those skills after 10mins.

 

Another thing, in scenario 1 you may have implied it but I didn't clearly see (must be the clouds ) a "Advise ATC of your situation and request help" - never ever be scared of doing this - they are there to help.

 

So, is turning back still the absolute best and only option you have?

 

 

[PaulN]

In scenario 1 you may have implied it but I didn't clearly see (must be the clouds ) a "Advise ATC of your situation and request help" - never ever be scared of doing this - they are there to help. ... No, this was neither implied nor overlooked. In my response I was thinking the resolution would be straight forward. I wonder just how much help ATC could be if they had neither a paint nor a xpdr signal ofmy a/c, I guess they would soon tell me. You're right in suggesting no-one should ever be afraid/shy to ask for help ... as someone else has said "better red than dead".You'll note I opted for ATC help that time over YSCB, and glad of it.

 

Now you have thrown in thevariable of tracking over the cloud at say 45 degrees to the movement of the front. I confess, that Ididnot consider. Now the cloud your drawwill be moving at "x" knotsopposing my initial flight pathand flying into a h/wind mygnd speed will be less than airspeed. So by turning back my gnd speed will proportionally increase so that at say 120kt IAS I should beable to sight the cloud front fairly soon. However, if I'm still anxious I could pitch up to gain some height affording a better look around to find a way down (so long as I don't run into another wind layer opposing my flight path again).

 

Dang it, now you've got me worried.What am I missing??

 

BTW... you are relying entirely on your navigation skills of only time and track as you can't use land marks - you would severely question those skills after 10mins ... I question these all the time.

 

Paul

 

 

[Admin]

The reason I created this scenario is that I was watching Crash Scene Investigation on Saturday where a Ferry flipped on to its side killing 190 odd passengers. the ferry forgot to close it's front doors which should have been ok but it was traveling in shallow water which causes more water up the front but that still didn't cause it. The extra ballast that was taken on to lower the front for loading of the cars wasn't pumped out but that didn't cause it -in the end it was a 0.5 knot speed increase from 17.5 knots to 18 knots which did it. If any one of these things didn't happen it would have been ok but all together caused the disaster.

 

The point is there are catastrophic disasters that happen due to one event but then there are other disasters that happen due to a collection of events in which all events must occur.

 

Paul I am not saying you are incorrect in turning back the way you came nor am I saying you are right but you are getting closer to what I would have done which also may or may not be correct. The point you make in:

 

I wonder just how much help ATC could be if they had neither a paint nor a xpdr signal ofmy a/c, I guess they would soon tell me

 

interests me as well as what you have said;)

 

Can anyone else offer advice on what they would do?

 

 

[Guest babs1aus]

Well there is really alot of documented cases world wide of VFR pilots entering true IMC conditions and the outcome even with the basic Ga training Intrument time is not good. With or without ATC. There is a very good reasoning for contactingATC asap and that is they will have more met information available andtrained in scenarious toassist you. Since you have no transponder guess youll be all but invisible. So with their help and alot of luckyou may see your family and freinds or atleast have narrowed the search for wreckage down to 100square miles. Id have to assume that finding yourself in this situation is not just one error but a series of poor decisions which most likely began before the aircraft was started and often the day before. Even If you knew exactly where you were How thick is the cloud now below you what is below you the chances of survival entering the soup in an aircraft without currency on instruments, or checked instruments'The stats speak for themselves. True also cloud could be developing behind you However if itwasnt there before it would be your first point tolook to rather than pressing on unless you have been flying ontop for awhile in deteriating conditions.(why?) For those with all the survival theories please read "178 seconds" it should be a mandatory read. Im very sorry If ive painted such a bleak picture however if it makes you take more time to situational awarenessand your own personal safety audit great. babs1aus

 

 

[Guest babs1aus]

Id just like to add that Ive been in a hanger with alot of pilots Most instructors or operators of light aircraft all have lost colleauges over the years through accidents in aircraft both GA and Raaus The day was overcast at about 3000 and there was known shower activity up the coast 100 km. A Raaus pilot and you wonder why we get frowned upon was about to set out on a 200km flight nth. I informed him that there was deteriating conditions and he advised me that he would be ok and even if it got bad he had an AH and transponder, His theory was If he was caught out he would fly east until he entered clear weather over the ocean obviously not a sailor. A few of the other pilots advised him some abruptly some politely that he was being very foolish. He took off with passenger 15 minutes later only to return After encountering rain squall7 km from point of departure. Now what would have the outcome or decision been without the input of the concerned earlier. or he had encountered rain say 50 kms away. babs1aus