35 deaths in 30 months

[John Brandon]

A person contacted me a few days ago in regard to the '29 deaths in 29 months' statement in the Recreational Flying forum plus the 'Recent RA-Aus fatal accident history' web page in the Recreational Flying tutorials. He thought that my seeming concentration on RA-Aus fatalities was neglectful of the HGFA fatalities and that, as my tutorials are no longer part of the RA-Aus website and are now part of a non-aligned recreational aviation website, then there is every reason to have a broader approach to recreational aviation accidents.

 

I guess he is quite right and I intend to start modifications to include all fatal accidents relating to powered aircraft that were operating under the exemptions provided by CAOs 95.8, 95.10, 95.32 and 95.55; thus excluding only the non-powered hang gliders operating under CAO 95.8 and the rotorcraft. I have included accidents where the pilot was operating outside an RAAO but should have been operating under the CAOs; i.e. the persons who have never bothered to join RA-Aus/HGFA or who have allowed membership/ registration etc to lapse.

 

Katie Jenkins has informed me that the RA-Aus operations staff have prepared an accident history document for publication in the July Sport Pilot which should be interesting.

 

Total fatalities in the 30 months January 2013 to June 2015 inclusive is 35 persons - 30 PICs, one pilot examiner and 4 passengers. There were 3 non-recreational accidents included, i.e. stock and station air work operations; 28 of the fatalities were associated with RA-Aus, 6 with HGFA and 1 non-associated. However I may not have picked up all the relevant HGFA or non-associated accidents and I would like to be informed of those missed. Katie Jenkins has checked the RA-Aus statistics so they should be OK.

 

Powered 3-axis and WS recreational aviation fatalities during the 30 months 1/1/2013 to 30/6/2015

 

2012 (included for reference the numbers are not included in totals)

 

1 March 19, 2012 - CZAW Sportcruiser (PiperSport), collision with terrain near Bundaberg Qld. The PIC instructor and student pilot suffered fatal injuries. ATSB 201202356

 

2. April 7, 2012 - Airborne XT912 , Temora Natfly to Cootamundra, collision with terrain near Cootamundra NSW near last light. The pilot and passenger suffered fatal injuries.

 

3. June 8, 2012 - Airborne XT912, collision with terrain near Temora NSW. The pilot suffered fatal injuries.

 

Total 2012 fatalities: 3 PICs plus 1 student pilot and 1 passenger = 5 fatalities. All RA-Aus no HGFA recorded.

 

Includes 2 trikes.

 

2013

 

1. January 11, 2013 - Australian LightWing GR912 , collision with terrain near Beaconsfield Tas. The pilot suffered fatal injuries.

 

2. February 3, 2013 - Skyfox CA25N Gazelle, collision with terrain in Glasshouse Mountains area Qld. The pilot suffered fatal injuries.

 

3. February 7, 2013 - Alpi Pioneer, collision with power lines near Ouyen Vic. The pilot and passenger suffered fatal injuries. ATSB201301151

 

4. February 8, 2013 - Murphy Maverick/Rebel, collision with terrain Texas, NSW. The pilot suffered fatal injuries. ATSB201301147

 

5. March 6, 2013 - Airborne XT912, collision with water Warnervale, Tuggerah Lakes NSW. The pilot and passenger suffered fatal injuries. ATSB201302118

 

6. March 12, 2013 - Tecnam P92, collision with terrain (cattle mustering) at Kihee Station, Eromanga south-west Qld. The pilot was pulled from the burning wreckage but he later succumbed to his injuries

 

7. March 24, 2013 - Vans RV12 19-8121, crashed at Lismore, NSW. Control loss during first test flight of home-built. The testing pilot suffered fatal injuries. ATSB201302805

 

8. April 13, 2013 - powered paraglider Bribie Island, Qld. HGFA may be CAO 95.8 or 95.10 aircraft. HGFA.

 

9. 2nd qtr, 2013 - powered paraglider Atkinson's dam near Ipswich, Qld. HGFA may be CAO 95.8 or 95.10 aircraft. HGFA.

 

10 April 23, 2013 - Super Diamond (modified kit-built), collision with terrain, Mitchells Island near Taree, NSW. The pilot suffered fatal injuries.

 

11. June 16, 2013 - Colyaer Martin 3, collision with terrain near Dongarra, WA, fire. The pilot suffered fatal injuries.

 

12. October 6, 2013 - Storm 300, collision with terrain (attempted go-around, clipped trees) near Bundaberg, Qld. The pilot succumbed to injuries October 14.

 

13. October 27, 2013 - Airborne XT912, collision with terrain, Girraween NT. The pilot suffered fatal injuries. Coroner's Court Darwin findings D0188/2013 delivered 30/12/14. HGFA or perhaps non-associated.

 

14. November 18, 2013 - ICP Savannah VG XL, collision with terrain (while checking stock?) Mungerannie Station, SA. The pilot suffered fatal injuries.

 

Total 2013 fatalities: 14 PICs plus 2 passengers.

 

(16 deaths; 11 RA-Aus pilots, 3 HGFA pilots and 2 RA-Aus passengers)

 

Includes 2 PPG, 2 trikes and 2 stock and station operation accidents.

 

2014

 

1. April 27, 2014 - Airborne XT912, collision with terrain (house) Tyabb, Vic. The pilot suffered fatal injuries and a small child passenger was severely injured.

 

2. May 16, 2014 - Aeropro EuroFox 3K, collision with terrain while mustering stock at Manfred Station 50 km south of Ivanhoe, NSW. The pilot later died of injuries.

 

3. June 26, 2014 - Tecnam P96 Golf, collision with terrain possibly following outer wing separation and loss of control, Krondorf area near Tanunda, SA. The pilot and passenger both suffered fatal injuries. Flight planned Lyndoch to Mildura, aircraft crashed at 8:10am.

 

4. July 6, 2014 - Morgan Aero Works Sierra 100 home-built, Mossy Pt (Moruya) NSW, collision with water following loss of control while a biennial flight review was being conducted in the reviewee's aircraft. Both the examiner and the pilot under review were fatally injured. The cause was believed to be control surface separation due to aerodynamic flutter occasioned by inadequate maintenance of the flight control linkage system.

 

5. October 6, 2014 - Drifter (Fisher Mk1), collision with terrain private strip at Knockrow, NSW, trapping the pilot. The pilot suffered critical injuries and passed away a week later without regaining consciousness.

 

6. October 8, 2014 - ICP Savannah VG XL, collision with terrain Wooderson, near Calliope, central Qld. The pilot suffered fatal injuries.

 

Total 2014 fatalities: 6 RA-Aus PICs and 1 pilot examiner plus 1 passenger = 8 and one child severely injured. All RA-Aus no HGFA recorded.

 

Includes 1 trike, 1 stock and station operation accident.

 

 

 

 

 

2015

 

1. January 27. 2015 - Karaone home-built, collision with terrain near Bulli Tops, Illawarra district, NSW. The pilot planned to fly from Wedderburn airport to Albion Park Airport with another ultralight aircraft. The two aircraft encountered non-VFR meteorological conditions over difficult terrain at a time approaching evening civil twilight. (Shown as a 'Pilatus' in the RA-Aus accident and incidence summaries and appears as such in the ATSB occurrence data base.)

 

2. February 10, 2015 - a Drifter 582 and a single seat Thruster 503 departed Donnington Airpark Qld for a local in-company flight but failed to return. The wreckage of both aircraft and the bodies of the pilots was found in close proximity at Woodstock 7 km south of Donnington Airpark. RA-Aus investigation concluded that the two aircraft collided midair.

 

3. April 10, 2015 - an HGFA trike struck a powerline on take-off from a private airstrip at Walshpool near Jamestown SA. Pilot sole occupant.

 

4. April 11, 2015 - the pilot and passenger died in an HGFA trike powerline on take-off from a private airstrip at Dundee near Glen Innes NSW.

 

5. April 18, 2015 - a kit-built Jabiru 250 fitted with an 8 cylinder Jabiru 5500 engine, pilot sole occupant, crashed on a ridge near Woolooga Qld while on a morning flight from Gympie to Dixalea.

 

6. May 9, 2015 - Lightwing Speed 2000, North Stradbroke Island, pilot sole occupant.

 

7. May 23, 2015 - home-built (first flight?), Lovedale near Cessnock airfield, pilot sole occupant.

 

8. May 30, 2015 - Fasterway PPC, pilot sole occupant, crashed shortly after take-off Theodore south west of Gladstone. RA-Aus registration number had been allocated for building but membership and registration not current so pilot was not associated with an RAAO and thus operating outside CAO 95.32. RA-Aus assisted police in the investigation.

 

9. June 23, 2015 - an RA-Aus trike, pilot sole occupant, crashed on take-off from a Tyagarah airstrip near Byron Bay NSW.

 

2015 fatalities: 10 PICs, 1 passenger and 10 aircraft in first 6 months.

 

(11 deaths; 7 RA-Aus pilots, 2 HGFA pilots, 1 unassociated pilot and 1 HGFA passenger)

 

Includes 3 trikes and 1 PPC accident.

 

John Brandon

 

 

[kgwilson]

With regard to the Sierra 100 crash into the sea on 6 July 2014 it has since been reported that Pelican remains were found on the wreckage after it was recovered and the control surfaces were still attached. If this is the case Bird Strike is a more likely cause given the elevator is fully mass balanced and slowing the aircraft immediately would reduce the likelihood of flutter.

 

 

[K-man]

Australians are not particularly renown for obeying the rules. It would be interesting to go through the coronial reports to see the actual cause of the crashes. Then you could see whether there were issues with aircraft or issues with pilots. My bet is at least 95% would be pilot error.

 

I went looking at press reports and found this to do with one of the crashes. The pilot had his licence for about two months but a friend described him as a 'good pilot'. He hit powerlines after flying low over a friends house. What 'good pilot' does that?

 

I don't think there is much you can do to convince young bulletproof guys that they are not bulletproof. We have the 'human factors' course, but really, what does it achieve apart from trying to point out to people that things go pear shape very quickly if you aren't on top of your game?

 

The adage of the old pilots or bold pilots but no old, bold pilots is particularly apt. I don't see flying as such to be terribly risky. I think it is most likely people flying outside the envelope are responsible for most of the incidents.

 

 

[facthunter]

Flying isn't particularly risky IF the individual is serious about it and does things methodically and carefully. There are also some flying skills that could be more insisted on, and be in the syllabus. especially the instructors experience required. Without them I can't see how you can adequately train anyone to a level that I would want my family to go with them. You can't do what you haven't been taught. Nev

 

 

[Phil Perry]

Australians are not particularly renown for obeying the rules.

If I might be so bold Sir,. . . I have flown in several countries, and have encountered that attitude, so I do not think it is fair to attribute this particular condition to Australian Pilots alone. . . . From what I have seen, heard about and read,. . .It seems to be prevalent everywhere, mainly where "New" or otherwise fairly inexperienced and YOUNG pilots are involved. Mother nature seems to be fairly good at attenuating the natural gung-ho "Risk ? What risk" syndrome as a person becomes more advanced in years, even those who start out in flying later in life. I realise that this does not apply to everyone, but it certainly appears to, when compared with fearless "Nah,. . .that's never gonna happen to me. . ." young blades.

 

We have had two serious accidents here in the UK over the last three days, ( see my post in Incidents and Accidents ) and both aircraft were flown by blokes in their fifties and sixties, the first ( trike ) a fatal on impact, and one later in hospital, and the second ( Rans S6 three axis ) both crew serious, multiple injuries and a fire on the ground, but accidents will happen. These two particular incidents are too recent for anyone to pinpoint any possible causes., but I will be most surprised if either of them turn out to be associated with "Exuberant" or risky flying. . .we shall see. Most "Oldies" just want to enjoy a bit of a fly, then go and have a barbie and a beer and talk about it.

 

In any event, since "I know people who know the people" I will keep the team advised of what I glean. The A.A.I.B. report will come along a bit later. . . . .

 

Those death reports are very alarming,. . . .thank you to John Brandon for the statistics. Frightening.

 

Tin hat on.

 

Phil

 

 

[K-man]

If I might be so bold Sir,. . . I have flown in several countries, and have encountered that attitude, so I do not think it is fair to attribute this particular condition to Australian Pilots alone. . . . From what I have seen, heard about and read,. . .It seems to be prevalent everywhere, mainly where "New" or otherwise fairly inexperienced and YOUNG pilots are involved.

Phil, my observation was not aimed specifically at Australian pilots. It was aimed at Australians in general where we have a reputation for being just a little lax when it comes to rules.

I was surmising that a small number of Aussie pilots might carry that attitude into the air where they may well be putting theirs hands up to receive a 'Darwin Award' in recognition of their aeronautical feats.

 

 

[Roundsounds]

It's very difficult (impossible?) to form an accurate assessment as to whether there are any common causes in incidents involving RAAus aircraft and pilots. This is due to two main factors, firstly the lack of a functional incident recording and reporting database, secondly a reluctance to report near misses.

 

Any new regulations or training are only hit and miss attempts to improve safety. This may be why the safety stat's don't seem to be improving, without the full picture some measures may in fact reduce safety. I understand there is a system being created, but it cannot come too soon and must be used correctly. New rules and threats of removing privileges rarely increase safety, proper education is the only effective way. Appointing a training officer is a good move, but they must have accurate data to work with or else they'll be shooting in the dark.

 

 

[turboplanner]

What are these new rules?

 

 

[Roundsounds]

I meant the evolution of the Ops Manual to where it is today. (I'd like to say the evolution of the Tech manual, but it has yet to evolve.)

 

I'm not saying there are any pending new rules, although I think there may have been a few unintended ones with Issue 7 of the OM and are / have been resolved.

 

 

[facthunter]

I'm not sure Australians have a particular aversion to rules. but they have proven they don't always trust their so called " superiors" to be good enough to let things pass unchallenged where required. You earn respect rather than demand it because of rank or whatever.

 

This is one of the reasons we have/had one of the best air safety records in the world.. It won't last because there is a concerted effort to eliminate the bearer of bad news , rather than the cause of the bad news itself..Nev

 

 

[turboplanner]

That's a bit deep for a simple person like me; who are the bearers and who are the causes.

 

What you are saying sounds correct, but it would help to know which direction we need to focus on.

 

 

[Yenn]

Changing the rules won't change the accident rate. As far as I can see rule changes are only done because somebody considers it time. CASA has been re writing all the rules and all that has happened is that the rules hardly change, but there is much more verbiage to digest. Our rules use to be simple amd sensible, now you need to be a lawyer to understand them.

 

Stop the accidents by applying peer pressure on the cowboys.

 

 

[K-man]

I'm not sure Australians have a particular aversion to rules. but they have proven they don't always trust their so called " superiors" to be good enough to let things pass unchallenged where required. You earn respect rather than demand it because of rank or whatever.This is one of the reasons we have/had one of the best air safety records in the world.. It won't last because there is a concerted effort to eliminate the bearer of bad news , rather than the cause of the bad news itself..Nev

Well, for starters, over 42% of the population have used illicit drugs. Of course there's nothing wrong with that. We all know that drugs don't cause harm to most people so no problem there. And of course speed limits are for the guidance of wise men and obedience of fools. Speeding isn't an issue for people who know how to drive properly. How many people have a criminal history? That comes from breaking rules. Drinking and driving? Driving unlicensed? I'd say a big percentage of Australians have quite an aversion to 'rules'.

Now, how much does that translate to flying? I would hope that pilots have a totally different attitude but like most of us, I have seen my share of cowboys. Maybe we do have a good overall safety record but if that is true why is this thread in existence? 35 deaths in 30 months! I don't think it is acceptable and I think we will see a massive knee jerk reaction if it continues. That could find all of us using our legs instead of our wings if the action against Jabiru is any measure.

 

 

[John Brandon]

 

Comparison of the RA-Aus accident rate and the total annual flight hours

 

The bar and line chart is derived from the annual number of RA-Aus fatal accidents and the total annual aircraft flight hours (reported by aircraft owners at the time annual registration is renewed) to provide the number of fatal accidents per 100 000 flight hours. RA-Aus staff, of course, presume that the annual aircraft flying hours reported by the owners is reasonably accurate. The bars* indicate the number of fatal accidents divided by the number of 100 000 flight hour blocks flown that year and the line indicates a four-year running average of the annual rates.

 

* For example, if there were four accidents in a year when 75 000 flight hours were recorded the calculation is 4/0.75=5.3 accidents per 100k flight hours.

 

The pattern is interesting. The fatal accident rate per 100k flight hours peaked in 2002* and in the 4-year period 2000-2003, when we were averaging nearly 80 000 flight hours per year, the fatal accident rate was about 7.2 per 100k hours, which was nearly as bad as the toll in the early 1980s (which prompted the investigation by the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Transport Safety). During the 2004-2007 period flight hours averaged about 110 000 hours annually and the rate reduced to 5.1 per 100k hours. Then in 2008-2011, when flight hours increased to around 155 000 per annum, there was a big improvement to 2.4 accidents per 100k hours. RA-Aus report 482 000 flight hours accumulated during 2012, 2013, 2014 and I have guessed 100 000 hours for the first 6 months of 2015 so with the 27 fatal accidents recorded for that period, then the rate has jumped up again to 4.7 fatals per 100k flight hours, so we seem to be reverting towards where we were in 2004-2007. A poor result, particularly considering all the work that has been done.

 

*Note: in 2002 the CAO 95.10, 95.25, 101.28 and 101.55 aircraft accounted for about 75% of hours flown, but by 2012 those aircraft represented less than 10% of flight hours.

 

From www.recreationalflying.com.au/tutorials/safety/intro2.html

 

 

[Roundsounds]

Very interesting data, but of little use to tackle the issue of reducing the rate. Until incidents are reviewed to determine common causes, any attempt to fix the problem is simply a shot in the dark. The other key is to create a culture of reporting near misses. People will not report near misses whilst they feel they will be penalised for doing so. I heard there was a proposal to introduce a demerit system, this would definitely stop people reporting incidents. The more safety data that can be collected and analysed, the better the outcomes of any attempts to reduce incident rates.

 

 

[turboplanner]

Yes,

 

1. Cause of this accident was?

 

2. Group the causes

 

3. Strategy to prevent repeats in each Group

 

4. Execution of strategy

 

 

[pmccarthy]

The need for better incident reporting and accident investigation is obvious. There may also be more to learn from the statitistics.

 

Are the hours data reliable? How did the balance between training and solo change, and average experience levels? I know one club that struggled to keep one plane in the air ten years ago, now has a fleet of five. Was there a big burst of training, and better flying, that coincided with the good years? Is the average pilot now a few years out of that training and slipping into bad habits? What about the apparent age bias in the accidents, are older people slower to react, as we know to be the medical reality?

 

 

[coljones]

[ATTACH=full]36829[/ATTACH]Comparison of the RA-Aus accident rate and the total annual flight hours

Snip...Snip...Snip

John, thanks for the analysis. How accessible is the raw data you have extracted your stats from?

[Guest Andys@coffs]

I'm sorry people I don't fully agree with you. The only part of the whole investigation thing that is missing is the full and frank reporting to the membership and there are legal reasons why that can't be done. RAAus in general is a trusted advisor to the state police and has a good rapport with each.

 

Don't get hung up on the whole investigation and reporting thing, we know as absolute fact that the vast majority of fatal accidents involve poor human decision making, and far less aircraft malfunction.

 

So focus on decision making and human factors.....if that can be influenced or reduced then the focus will come off the stats.

 

Andy

 

 

[facthunter]

The NUT that hold the joystick is a prime problem. Nev

 

 

[turboplanner]

Ah good, we're back to precision safety management.

 

 

[Guest Andys@coffs]

the precision that is missing, is just that you cant see it, not that it doesn't exist(***).......If you (generally not just Tubs) feel you want more precision give Katie Jenkins a call at RAAus Id be pretty sure she would have the info needed, provided you kept the discussion at a holistic level and don't dive down into the exact causes of the last fatal, for example. The legal impediments are real and can only be changed through legislation......Im not holding my breath for that change to occur anytime soon.....

 

Andy

 

(***) within the constraints that you can only tell so much in an accident investigation about what decisions a pilot did or didn't make and their appropriateness for the circumstances at the time. For example you can tell that he was where he shouldn't have been from a weather perspective, but you cant tell why he chose to be there and whether that was one decision at a gross level or a heap of poor individual decisions that made him/her end up where they ended up.

 

Many years ago I ended up in a very bad weather situation where the potential for a poor outcome was high. I didn't just make one decision that went along the lines of "Screw the experts what would they know!" but rather I was looking for a way through and went scud running until suddenly I was out of scud..... Of course take it high enough and decision to scud run was the bad one, yet I never made a decision to scud run rather I made a series of decisions that degraded the weather until suddenly I was scud running without a conscious decision to do so......of course with 20:20 hindsight I can identify exactly when things went from good to bad but at the time I never realised the next decision is one that will potentially kill you in 4 subsequent decisions time.

 

 

[turboplanner]

Given the current unsatisfactory situation, I would have expected those elected officials who do see the exact causes, to get a bit more focused on specifics, and in particular curb some of the ridiculous anti-safety culture that just goes on and on without restraint.

 

 

[Roundsounds]

Andy, at the end of the day most incidents result due to an HF issue. What the RAAus doesn't have the ability to do now is identify or forecast the most likely combination of pilot, aircraft, weather etc which will result in an incident. Once this info can be extracted from the existing data, decisions can be made regarding what the most appropriate mitigators might be. I work for an organisation who has such a system in place and it works very well.

 

 

[Guest Andys@coffs]

It seems to me that when it comes to HF its the things that nearly kill us, or had the potential to, but fate smiled......that we need to collect and analyse. We have the advantage of being able to collect all the swiss cheese holes that aligned rather than just the obvious one at the end as is often the case with fatals......

 

We do have people that analyse and report trends etc...of course they can only do so if the members of RAAus report the near misses.......

 

Who has had a near miss in aviation in the last 12 months? Who of you then reported that near miss? The problem is that its often the case that after the event has occurred you look back and are almost, if not actually, embarrassed at what you did to almost get in the poo (that was the case in what I discussed above about my being in weather I should most certainly not have been) ....Of course that being true human nature will likely not want to share that widely....but recognise in not sharing it you may then watch another member that has the same circumstances but doesn't have the same luck that you did, expire for the want of your reporting being the one that triggers the identification of a trend with other similar reports....