To Bomb or not to Bomb

[willedoo]

After much thought and a few beers I've decided on a plan for some degree of stability in the current situation in Syria.

 

It's no secret that the U.S.Government and it's agencies like the CIA, have for some time trained, armed and equipped rebel groups in Syria for the purpose of bringing about regime change. They refer to these groups as their 'Assets'. After the genie (ISIL) escaped from the bottle, the narrative is now that these assets are necessary to help defeat Islamic State forces.

 

Problem is that these assets are being badly knocked about by the SAA and Russian air support. Lately they have also had the Kurds on their back, who are in an alliance with the Syrian Government, Russia, and the U.S., their original backers. The Kurds are having a bob each way.

 

The U.S. has decided that it is not practical to back most of their assets anymore ( because someone else now holds the cards in the region ) and they have decided to basically just stick with the Kurds as they are the only non-government group really keen to fight IS on the ground. A big part of the Kurdish motivation, apart fron survival, is their agenda to establish an autonomous state.

 

So here's the plan. It's not exactly win/win but better than what's happened up till now. Russia and the SAA keep on doing their thing. Their plan is to use the Kurds to seal the Syrian/Turkish border, having the effect of breaking up the cosy arrangement between Turkey and IS, and cutting off IS's main lifeline.

 

So the U.S. keeps supporting the Kurds as well, and tells that Turkish bloke to go and have a bex and a lie down for a while. The Kurds occupy the entire Syrian/Turkish border region. All forces combine to defeat the remnants of IS, or at least break the majority of their power. Assad, realizing it's the lesser of two evils, enters into a mutually beneficial agreement with the Kurds and the government grants them autonomy over the land they occupy. The Syrian kurds realise a major part of their dream and get to provide a buffer zone between Turkey and Syria.

 

Meanwhile, the Kurds are sitting on a lot of oil that they don't have the expertise or capital to develop fully. So they enter into joint ventures with Russian and U.S. oil companies, and with a future rehabilitated Syrian Government. Everyone gets a slice of the pie (except Turkey and the Gulf States who are not happy), even Israel, who can continue to buy Kurd oil (they like the Kurds).

 

The Kurds have security guaranteed by Syria, The U.S. and the Russian Federation. NATO tells that Turkish bloke to behave himself or he'll be kicked out of the club.

 

So to summarize:

 

The Kurds are very happy.

 

The Syrian Government is happy, as they've lost only a portion of their country to a co-operative new found ally. This is a much better deal than the original scenario of losing the whole country.

 

The Russians are happy as they get to keep their bases and investment opportunities.

 

The Americans are sort of happy, as they've saved face, maintained some influence in the region, and picked up some investment opportunities as well.

 

The Israelis are happy as they continue to benefit from a stable oil source.

 

Iraq and Iran could be happy if they could strike a mutual agreement with the Kurds.

 

And to stay on topic, the Royal Australian Air Force and other Australian Defence personnel would be happy, as they could come back home where they belong.

 

Of course, Islamic State, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia wouldn't be happy, but that's fairly normal.

 

Cheers, Willie.

 

 

[willedoo]

Just for the record, it looks like Youtube has censored the previously posted video clip. Bit of a shame really, as it was interesting.

 

Youtube must have someone higher up the pecking order calling the shots.

 

 

[Marty_d]

After much thought and a few beers I've decided on a plan for some degree of stability in the current situation in Syria.It's no secret that the U.S.Government and it's agencies like the CIA, have for some time trained, armed and equipped rebel groups in Syria for the purpose of bringing about regime change. They refer to these groups as their 'Assets'. After the genie (ISIL) escaped from the bottle, the narrative is now that these assets are necessary to help defeat Islamic State forces.

 

Problem is that these assets are being badly knocked about by the SAA and Russian air support. Lately they have also had the Kurds on their back, who are in an alliance with the Syrian Government, Russia, and the U.S., their original backers. The Kurds are having a bob each way.

 

The U.S. has decided that it is not practical to back most of their assets anymore ( because someone else now holds the cards in the region ) and they have decided to basically just stick with the Kurds as they are the only non-government group really keen to fight IS on the ground. A big part of the Kurdish motivation, apart fron survival, is their agenda to establish an autonomous state.

 

So here's the plan. It's not exactly win/win but better than what's happened up till now. Russia and the SAA keep on doing their thing. Their plan is to use the Kurds to seal the Syrian/Turkish border, having the effect of breaking up the cosy arrangement between Turkey and IS, and cutting off IS's main lifeline.

 

So the U.S. keeps supporting the Kurds as well, and tells that Turkish bloke to go and have a bex and a lie down for a while. The Kurds occupy the entire Syrian/Turkish border region. All forces combine to defeat the remnants of IS, or at least break the majority of their power. Assad, realizing it's the lesser of two evils, enters into a mutually beneficial agreement with the Kurds and the government grants them autonomy over the land they occupy. The Syrian kurds realise a major part of their dream and get to provide a buffer zone between Turkey and Syria.

 

Meanwhile, the Kurds are sitting on a lot of oil that they don't have the expertise or capital to develop fully. So they enter into joint ventures with Russian and U.S. oil companies, and with a future rehabilitated Syrian Government. Everyone gets a slice of the pie (except Turkey and the Gulf States who are not happy), even Israel, who can continue to buy Kurd oil (they like the Kurds).

 

The Kurds have security guaranteed by Syria, The U.S. and the Russian Federation. NATO tells that Turkish bloke to behave himself or he'll be kicked out of the club.

 

So to summarize:

 

The Kurds are very happy.

 

The Syrian Government is happy, as they've lost only a portion of their country to a co-operative new found ally. This is a much better deal than the original scenario of losing the whole country.

 

The Russians are happy as they get to keep their bases and investment opportunities.

 

The Americans are sort of happy, as they've saved face, maintained some influence in the region, and picked up some investment opportunities as well.

 

The Israelis are happy as they continue to benefit from a stable oil source.

 

Iraq and Iran could be happy if they could strike a mutual agreement with the Kurds.

 

And to stay on topic, the Royal Australian Air Force and other Australian Defence personnel would be happy, as they could come back home where they belong.

 

Of course, Islamic State, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia wouldn't be happy, but that's fairly normal.

 

Cheers, Willie.

Sounds like a plan Willie... brush up on your Arabic and Tim will airdrop you in with the Nieuport to commence diplomatic negotiations.

 

It was also funny what you said about Bex lying down with that Turkish chap.

 

 

[willedoo]

Sounds like a plan Willie... brush up on your Arabic and Tim will airdrop you in with the Nieuport to commence diplomatic negotiations.It was also funny what you said about Bex lying down with that Turkish chap.

Well, I could start with that Turkish chap. We both have a similar mustache, so maybe he'd listen to me.

 

First thing on the agenda might be to advise him to forget about Bex.

 

 

[eightyknots]

Bex may supply a very user-friendly aircraft engine, which is so frugal that the Turkish Air Force won't have to buy ISIS oil at half the market price.

 

 

[willedoo]

President Putin has ordered the Russian Air Force to withdraw from Syria:

 

https://www.rt.com/news/335746-russia-syria-aircraft-withdrawal/

 

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160316/1036368838/russia-withdrawal-versions.html;

 

 

 

[eightyknots]

Hanging around, as the US military seem to do, after the job is done is expensive and serves little purpose. Putin seems smarter than the Yanks.

 

 

[Kiwi303]

Especially since Afghanistan is so much more recent than Vietnam.

 

also

 

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/syrians-are-paying-a-high-price-for-russia-s-cheap-bomb-1744082828

 

 

[willedoo]

The pilots would be glad to get back home to their families. A smart move all round to rest the crews, and I'd guess some of the aircraft would also be due for engine changes; a job better done at home.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

Hanging around, as the US military seem to do, after the job is done is expensive and serves little purpose. Putin seems smarter than the Yanks.

at the end of the day for the US, its always about making money for the corporations

 

how about charging the tax payer $45 for a 6 pack of cokes?

 

https://fcnp.com/2006/09/26/film-documents-profiteering-a-mismanagement-in-iraq/

 

 

[willedoo]

Snouts in the trough drive a lot of conflicts, very much so these days.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

things not going smoothly for the Russians in Syria

 

 

 

 

[willedoo]

Seems a bit odd, dated eight days ago. No previous mention in any press, not a peep from the U.S. Government or Pentagon.

 

Just this showing up on Stratfor's website.

 

The Russians are saying the imagery is months old and all the gear was Syrian.

 

Did ISIS Destroy Russian Choppers at Key Syrian Base?

 

 

[willedoo]

Two Russian pilots have died after being shot down in a Syrian Mi-25 near Palmyra.

 

PressTV-Daesh downs Syria chopper: Video

 

2 Russian pilots killed as ISIS shoots down chopper near Palmyra – MoD

 

 

[fly_tornado]

does that first video shows the helo shooting first at 0:08?

 

 

[facthunter]

Helicopters look like sitting ducks to me. Nev

 

 

[willedoo]

does that first video shows the helo shooting first at 0:08?

I'm not sure if the Russians have verified the video as yet. It was supposedly released by I.S. but possibly genuine given the timing.

 

Looking closely at it, it looks like the chopper is firing rearward with what is possibly anti missile munitions, then a clean hit takes the tail off.