MH370 - New Development

[onetrack]

You were spot on as regards NBH. I found the ownership list details. NBH registered it on 12/03/1981 - but there's no record of when they onsold it to SDS. Seems like it went back to the U.S. in 1998.

 

Registration Details For VH-BNK (North Broken Hill (Pty) Ltd) 501 Citation-I/SP - PlaneLogger

 

 

[Jaba-who]

What about the story that the captain was a mate of Anwar Ibrahim? The guy who has been unjustly ( to put it mildly) persecuted in Malaysia?

I was listening to an ABC radio report some time back that quoted this. But turned out according to the report that it's not really that true.

They interviewed Ibraham himself who said that the pilot was a supporter of the political party that Ibraham is in, that the pilot had been to one or perhaps two party official events where ibrahim had been a speaker and that he had been introduced to the pilot once at a party event and had never had any other interaction with him.

 

Whether all that is/was true I don't know but that it was a very limited acquaintance rather than friendship sounded plausible from the content of the report not just ibrahims statement.

 

 

[dutchroll]

Yeah I'm reasonably convinced that the Captain must've done it. How? By getting out of the seat and deadbolting the cockpit door after convincing the F/O to go out for a break or get him something. I would imagine to negate the possibility of anyone thwarting the whole plan he depressurised the plane until the passenger oxygen ran out (it's only 15 minutes worth and it'd be well before the flight deck oxygen required for one pilot would run out). Then he would've had free reign to do what he liked while everyone else was permanently asleep. Or maybe he didn't bother.

 

Why put it in the deepest part of the Indian Ocean so it's almost impossible to find? I have absolutely no idea at all.

 

 

[johnm]

Chilling stuff - whoever the culprit ....... Does that Level of cockpit side security still exist ? - no one with knowledge can probably answer ? - but I still think there should be a mechanism to deal with megalomania int front window

 

 

[dutchroll]

Yes.

 

The threat of an attack on the cockpit from the cabin is considered, I think quite rightly despite this event, a much greater risk than a threat the other way around.

 

 

[onetrack]

The whole scenario makes little sense. No solid evidence to point to any one particular person, no apparent motive, no claim by any group that they were responsible.

 

I'm beginning to think the mystery will never be solved - and with the ever-increasing passage of time, there will be even less chance of finding the reason for the diversion.

 

MH370 will become the Mary Celeste of aviation - but even the Mary Celeste was found, and she left some major clues.

 

I'm wondering if the investigators will find anything worthwhile, by way of evidence, even if the wreckage of MH370 is found. The overwritten CVR record is disastrous.

 

 

[facthunter]

Give the pilots lots of superannuation and they will have plenty to live for. They only have job security from one medical/check to the next, anyhow. Nev

 

 

[johnm]

I don't think big superannuation is any answer ...................... a cheque does not stop mental / instability (assuming that's what occurred on MH370)

 

 

[facthunter]

My comment is a bit TIC . I don't like to assume anything with plane events. Nev

 

 

[BoxFat]

Yeah I'm reasonably convinced that the Captain must've done it. How? By getting out of the seat and deadbolting the cockpit door after convincing the F/O to go out for a break or get him something. I would imagine to negate the possibility of anyone thwarting the whole plan he depressurised the plane until the passenger oxygen ran out (it's only 15 minutes worth and it'd be well before the flight deck oxygen required for one pilot would run out). Then he would've had free reign to do what he liked while everyone else was permanently asleep. Or maybe he didn't bother.Why put it in the deepest part of the Indian Ocean so it's almost impossible to find? I have absolutely no idea at all.

The lack of any contact for so long after the transponder was switched off certainly suggests that all the PAX were incapacitated soon after the diversion. But what about the crew portable oxygen supply ? Wouldn't that have lasted more than 15 mins ? Among the many puzzling things about this thing is what the cabin crew might have known and done as it became apparent something was wrong. It's a slight comfort to think that everyone went quietly to hypoxic sleep and not nice to consider alternatives.

 

 

[dutchroll]

Yeah the thing with the portable oxygen cylinders around the cabin is that they're not designed for emergency use. They only have 2 flow settings and are designed for therapeutic use for ill passengers just to supplement the ambient oxygen level. There are a couple in the cockpit too, but these are fitted with a "demand" outlet as well as the normal outlets. If you use the demand outlet with a pilot oxygen mask to supply a level of oxygen appropriate to emergency use, you can expect to only get 15 minutes duration from it.

 

I would hope, at least, that after the number of hours it remained airborne for, the cabin crew and passengers were already deceased.

 

 

[Robbo]

Why this new piece of ‘MH370 debris’ is a total game changer

 

Fire on board??

 

 

[Robbo]

Umm what the?

 

Drifting Flaperon Decoys Next MH370 Gambit - AVweb flash Article

 

 

[onetrack]

So ... in another 2.5 yrs time, we might have the decoys turn up on Mauritius - or they might turn up on the W.A. coast, and no-one will still have any idea of where MH370 is?

 

What about getting hold of some of that Malaysian 1MDB scammed money from off the Americans, and pour that into some major, major efforts to find the wreckage?

 

I'm still puzzled at this stage, why Woods Hole and David Mearns haven't been invited into the search. Both have stunning success rates at finding underwater mysteries.

 

 

[tafisama]

Now they are for a death dive.My question is if the aircraft hits water at that speed doesn't that activate the ELT like what happened with the Egypt Air plane unless of course the Beacon was not fitted.Something doesn't add up.I believe the crew turned back to land lowered some flap to control speed then somehow lost it and it crashed still with flaps down.How far would it have gone in that scenario

 

 

[dutchroll]

It may or may not activate the ELT. One of the controversial issues with ELTs is their high-ish failure rate in severe impacts. Of course there are much more reliable beacons carried like the Rescue 406 portable beacons, but they require someone to pull them out of the door stowage and activate them.

 

They know how much fuel it took off with, and they know how long it maintained a handshake with the satellite system. So they know it continued flying to the approximate point of fuel exhaustion given a high altitude cruise. There is no way it could've done this with flaps down.

 

 

[Yenn]

It seems that there is no doubt it went down in the India Ocean, so do they think finding fire debris will mean that the pilot was not at fault. Being that far off course I don't think fire would be a prime cause of the plane disappearing. Maybe it would make the airline look a bit better in the eyes of idiots.

 

 

[onetrack]

I cannot ever recall a major aircraft crash event, nor can I imagine such an event - where an aircraft on fire, flew for nearly 8 hrs after it disappeared from radar.

 

Neither can I imagine an event where a hold or cabin fire could have started, and it was extinguished (either by CC or inbuilt fire suppression in the hold) - then the aircraft continued on, to crash thousands of miles away, without making any attempt to land. I guess it could be possible the Capt and FO could be overcome by smoke and die, leaving some surviving pax to try and figure out how to fly the aircraft - but I'd have to guess the chances of that happening, would be 100,000,000 to 1.

 

 

[Aldo]

I cannot ever recall

The Most Likely Cause of the MH370 Loss and Ghost Flight)

 

Onetrack if the above link works (if not copy and paste it into google) it may well explain some of your questions but it doesn't subscribe to any of the conspiracy theories. The author is ex airforce and explains it all quite well and I believe it is the most probable scenario, but we will need to wait for some more bits to wash up yet to come to any sort of conclusion.

 

Aldo

 

 

[Litespeed]

Good article Aldo,

 

I remember reading this elsewhere not long after the loss of MH370 and it seems to make the sense to me.

 

Interesting his comments about PPrune and takeover by a PR firm to kill dissenting views- all modern corporate tactics 101.

 

 

[onetrack]

Aldo - I don't subscribe to any conspiracy theories either - and yes, I do recall reading earlier, John S's somewhat plausible explanation blaming the O2 bottle hose.

 

What I can't really agree with, is his proposal that turbulence in the ITCZ caused the aircraft to deviate through a turn of more than 90° to the South. I just couldn't see that happening with a B777.

 

Then, there's the unanswered phone call from the aircraft at 1840hrs (UTC). The last radar trace was 1822hrs, the aircraft was heading NW. The ATSB say the aircraft was travelling South, when the unanswered call was made.

 

The call timing and the turn time are an indicator to me, that someone was alive on the aircraft, and was involved in the major turn to the S event. Then there's the other unanswered call at 2314hrs. Another indicator of life on board.

 

So despite John S's well-considered theory, I think there's still numerous holes in it.

 

ATSB analysis - https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5163184/AE-2014-054_MH370 -Flight Path Analysis Update Oct 2014.docx

 

 

[tafisama]

What I fail to understand is why the aircraft initiated a log request around 18:25hrs.If power had been lost,was the aircraft still straight and level or it was descending.If it was straight and level then on the final log on request didn`t we have the aircraft still straight and level.How can power be switched off to the SDU.Can it be done from the cockpit.I believe maybe 50-500miles North of the Broken Ridge is the resting place.

 

 

[dutchroll]

So despite John S's well-considered theory, I think there's still numerous holes in it.

Some of it is nonsensical.

It's the first time I've actually read it. No wonder he was banned by PPrune, because it's so speculative and riddled with assumptions (quite a number of them extremely unlikely) that it's actually fairly pointless.

 

 

[dutchroll]

This is some of John Sampson's oxygen fire theory:

 

If the captain had dialled in a heading, then lowered the nose but not manually trimmed nose-down, when he soon passed out due hypoxia and relaxed is nose-down pressure on his yoke, the aircraft at its higher speed would have zoom-climbed up to 40,000 feet then dropped its nose (purely per the aerodynamics of such an event) and eventually regained wings-level flight at some lower altitude (approximating their original cruise altitude).

 

 

In the P3 Orion John used to fly, sure (though of course you would never make it anywhere near 40,000 ft in a P3). But that's not how it works in a fly-by-wire aircraft. The aircraft would be trimmed for the speed at which he entered the emergency descent and it would remain in that trim as long as he didn't touch the trim switches on the control column. Not only that, he would've been cruising somewhere around Mach 0.84 plus or minus a bit, and if he had accelerated at that speed it would be a matter of seconds before he was exceeding Mmo (Mach max operating) and getting perilously close to the high speed buffet boundary. You actually enter an emergency descent from cruise altitude at your current indicated speed.......because you don't really have any other choice! As you descend and the margin to Vmo gets bigger you could choose to accelerate, but in practice that's not what we generally do. The thrust is at idle, normally with the autothrust engaged and pitching the aircraft for the set speed. Or, if autothrust is not engaged, the thrust levers are physically retarded to idle. In any case, with the way it was trimmed for the set speed and at idle thrust, it's not going to suddenly zoom climb to 40,000 ft!

 

"Why would he not have trimmed nose-down? Pilots in modern airliners are used to CWS (and its pitch-axis auto-trim). CWS is "control wheel steering". The manual trim wheel doesn't come naturally to mind for requiring manipulation.... but "stuffing the nose down and getting to an oxygen friendly altitude" is beaten into their brains in simulator sessions as second priority to getting their oxy-masks on. Aviate/ Navigate/Communicate. It's likely that communication was the last thing to come to mind - as hypoxia intervened."

 

Nonsense.

 

• the B777 does not have a manual trim wheel. In fact none of the big modern Boeing jets have a trim wheel. Not even the old B767 had a trim wheel.
   
   
  
• no, "stuffing the nose down" is not beaten into our brains in the simulator. In fact a methodical, controlled entry into the emergency descent with the autopilot engaged is beaten into our brains and if you just stuff the nose down you'll have a senior training Captain having harsh words with you in the debrief. It saves absolutely bugger-all time to rush into the descent, but can lead to disastrous consequences if you screw it up. As explained above, with the speeds we cruise at, a sudden entry into an emergency descent by "stuffing the nose down" can have you going into overspeed territory in seconds, which is the last thing you need when you're already dealing with unknown structural damage.
   
   
  
• no, communication is not the "last thing to come to mind" simply by virtue of being the 3rd item in "aviate, navigate, communicate". Aviate-navigate-communicate is a motherhood statement about situational awareness (a very good one). If you're immediately happy that the first two are taken care of, you can go straight to number 3. Nor does it necessarily comprise a replacement or substitute for checklist or procedural flow in a situation, which includes notifying ATC.
   
   
  

 

 

As I said above, the more I read, the more I understand why PPrune just said "enough!" (no I'm not a regular on PPrune - not for 10 to 15 years now). He is absolutely fixated on this theory and he seems, to me at least, to have attempted to manipulate a whole bunch of things to fit into it.

 

 

[dutchroll]

Here's some more from my reading of Mr Sampson's oxygen fire theory:

 

Why would such an oxygen flare fire occur just when it did? We can imagine the following credible scenario:

 

 

 

a. Top of Climb (or just after, and settled down in the cruise in friendly weather) is a non-busy time for the captain to go down the back for a toilet or rest break. There are few distractions or ATC concerns once in the cruise phase. This personal routine could be individually confirmed as being the MH370 captain's typical modus operandi by querying other first officers with whom he'd flown the Beijing (and other) routes.

 

Rubbish. In over 16 years with the airlines I reckon I've seen the other pilot get out of the seat to go down "the back" (ie, just outside the cockpit door) for a toiler break or stretch at or shortly after top of climb about twice. It is most certainly not "routine" for anyone I have ever met.

 

b. Having made his final call to Kuala Lumpur, the captain would push his seat back, unstrap and announce to the first officer that he was going aft. The F/O would acknowledge and take his oxygen mask out of its housing and don it as the captain proceeded aft, closing the flight-deck door behind him. Why would the F/O don his mask? That is Standard Operating Procedure globally whenever one pilot is left on the flight deck alone.... for obvious reasons.

 

No, donning an oxygen mask when alone on the flight deck is not SOP globally. We have never done it. What's the point? Firstly, depending on the length and frequency of breaks, you'd simply be wasting valuable flight deck oxygen for a very low probability scenario. What happens when you get a depressurisation at the end of an 8 hour cruise and you've only got half your pilot oxygen left because you've had toilet breaks and been out for a stretch? Secondly, pilots are trained to instinctively reach for their oxygen masks and don them if a depressurisation occurs. Thirdly, even if all the planets aligned and there was only one pilot in the cockpit, and he didn't have his mask on, and the aircraft suffered a sudden depressurisation, and he failed to get his mask on in time, and went unconscious, the pilot outside has the emergency door access code. Once he was on a portable oxygen bottle, he would be able to access the cockpit and perform the descent.

 

Flight attendants delivering food to the flight-deck would've been familiar with seeing the knob that pilots would rotate to make a heading alteration.

 

Huh? How does he reach that conclusion? Does he think we get food sent up every 5 minutes, especially when under radar vectors or something? Does he seriously believe the flight attendants actually care what a knob on the Mode Control Panel does and stand there intently staring at it while they pass you your coffee?

 

By the way, the pilot oxygen masks are tested by the pilots during every single preflight check, on every Boeing or Airbus type I've ever flown. The mask diluter lever selections are permanently left in the "100% oxygen, emergency" position. The EROS flight crew oxygen mask common to all modern Boeing and Airbus aircraft takes about 3-4 seconds to don.

 

Here is a video showing a B777 depressurisation scenario. they descend before going on oxygen because it is not a "rapid depressurisation" initially and the cabin altitude does not yet exceed 10,000ft. The situation deteriorates and then they go into the rapid depressurisation memory items.