A Reminder of Where Not to Fly..

[DGL Fox]

Watched this again today....scary stuff...

 

David

 

 

 

[Nobody]

While it is scary stuff I think that there a few issues with the video. Firstly the studies showed that while an untrained pilot would lose control within 178 seconds a small amount of training increased the chances of survival dramatically hence the required 3 hours of instrument flight time to get an FAA PPL. The video is full of scare without any education. It's the kick started to the discussion not the end of it.

 

The second thing is that the regulatory/education approach of just avoid bad weather still leads to people getting caught out one day. An inadvertent IMC event has a much better outcome if the pilot has thought about and practiced what they are going to do beforehand. Imagine never practicing for an engine failure and having to work it out on the fly. So why don't people practice or at least premeditate what the would do if they accidentally end up in IMC. I have my plan and I have practiced it with an instructor and will share it here in a few posts but I am curious to see if other people have one too.

 

 

[turboplanner]

That's about right Nobody; in GA the three hours under the hood will teach you scanning and some of the difficulties of adapting from visual flight to instruments and vice versa. It's usually done in calm conditions, so the fear fsvtor of stuffing up your met forecast followed by not having a firm 180 degree out of there plan are missing.

 

Clearly you can master instrument flying because that's how commercial pilots fly much of the time, but it's not something you can teach yourself because there are a number of aspects to it that you will not be aware of from VFR training and flying.

 

Even after IFR training, you require regular recency training and it is expensive.

 

The good news is that today's VFR rules, based on distance from cloud should give you plenty of time to turn away from cloud.

 

I think the biggest risk is still knowing how to predict potential trouble areas from the met forecasts and I've had a thread going on it for a few years, and it's clear that most others have the same difficulty because there aren't too many brilliant solutions posted.

 

There are people who say flying through cloud is easy, and boast they've done it a few times, and that's usually a precursor in the ATSB fatality reports, as is the strong urge to press on to the destination.

 

Learning to do flight plan changes to alternative airports on the run is good practice to wean you off destinationitis.

 

I mentioned aspects of IFR training. One of these is the necessary flight training to calculate lowest safe altitude for ten miles each side of your track. This involves getting a WAC chart out and drawing the lines for your route so you don't hit a hill on track or drift into one nearby. You can't do this with the aircraft bucking in rough weather and no idea what your alternate is going to be. At least two smart Alec recreational aviators have died in this way in the last few years.

 

If you do get caught in cloud, call a mayday to ATC immediately. They've saved a few pilots by taking over navigation and altitude, and helped the pilot calm down and totally focus on the instruments until they can get him clear of cloud.

 

 

[facthunter]

It is very stressful flying in IMC for a fair time when it's not smooth or if you are tired. I was trained on limited panel initially as the major gyro instruments topple when you get far off normal attitudes. You were actually taught spin/spiral recognition and recovery on limited panel. Now that is pretty adequate training IF you practice now and again.

 

Problem? We don't have spin legal aircraft unless we use the aerobatic ones. IF that's a problem it should be fixed. Facilitate them being available.

 

It's (the previous mentioned training) probably more than you need to do a 180 degree turn and exit, and an autopilot doesn't know it's in cloud if you have one. but you need to know where the hills are and have a bit more skill as well, if you are to rely on more than luck.

 

Getting caught out one day? Depending on where you fly, I would give an honest opinion that ONE DAY you MAY, and there is a good possibility you WILL.. In an unusual situation cloud/dust can form rapidly so you need to be aware of what conditions may lead to this happening, and unforecast fog also. You can't JUST rely on the forecast. Sometimes they are just wrong. Cloud can form in smoke too. Nev

 

 

[poteroo]

 

Watched this again today....scary stuff...

Yes, it is indeed - but I'm old enough, and been in this business for long enough, (53 years), to know that scary messages just don't work well. VFR pilots continue to enter non-VMC conditions - some survive, others don't. Whether those who survive were in current instrument flying practice isn't known, nor is it published for those who, unfortunately, failed to make it. I don't believe that these numbers are known with any reliability on them. Unless we know this - where is the reason for all the scare stuff?

 

For a fair comparison - lets look at the road situation, and the obsession with speed as a primary causal factor in road deaths. Slowly, slowly - experts are accepting that speed is only one factor in the equation. The actual fatality rate per (driver/vehicle/distance?) is actually falling, yet speeds achieved, and achievable, are higher now than when we drove VW beetles in the 60's. Much higher in fact. Focus on speed alone is misleading - just as is focus on reducing aviation fatalities by urging pilots not to enter non-VMC.

 

The loss of VMC is one that we can reduce - in my opinion - by introducing improved 'attitude' training at an early stage of training. Students need to see and feel the 'loss of VMC' situation - when the primacy of learning is able to instil in them a healthy respect for it, and an appreciation of the simple solutions. It's too late to achieve this after pilots are let loose and begin to traverse Aus with an overly confident attitude about VMC. By then, they'll likely have 'tried' their hand at a bit of 'safe' non-VMC flying and, with mates' support, have begun to disrespect the warnings.

 

Even if you have IFR training, and are current - there are clouds that you can negotiate, but there are others where you are crazy to go near. If the system is big and bad - it holds significance for both IFR and non-IFR pilots. We recently had a good example of the prudent IFR/RPT pilot here - the F50 decided not to push through a line of weather only 30nm north, and returned to Perth. That's what we pay for in RPT - sensible decisions and safe outcomes. There are no medals for scaring the paying passengers and probably shortening the life of the already aged airframe!

 

For the VFR pilot - it means you keep a sensible distance between it and you - 10nm is a good starting point as that allows you to assess a greater length of the system. It means diversions when the cloud base allows less than 1000ft clearance - not when you are 200ft and <3nm visibility. Then you don't need to worry whether you'll last 178 seconds!

 

And, while we're at it, why not compare the 'IFR' scene to those other causes of aviation fatalities such as EFATO and low flying. We train students from an early stage to recover from EFATO in various positions, and it's usually done well. But, without continued practice, these skills fall away, (as we see during BFR's). It's relatively safe to practise these yourself, and we need to urge all pilots to do so.

 

However, low level flying is an entirely different matter. You don't know, what you don't know in LL - just as in attitude instrument flying. It requires training plus regular practice to retain competency. And, it should be commenced at a much earlier stage of pilot training so that, again, primacy-of-learning ensures that the student becomes an aware qualified pilot who does not need wishy washy messages and lectures form the regulators about the risks of LL. It has to start early in the training.

 

I hesitate to use this - but the saying you can't teach an old dog new tricks has some currency in aviation.

 

happy days,

 

 

[Robbo]

This is one good thing about home flight simulators, in fact its the only part of the sim you can actually learn from. Instrument flying!

 

 

[hihosland]

Herewith a repeat of my take on the 178 seconds, submitted some years (decades) for one of the flying magazines

 

How many of us as pilots have ventured into that 178 second realm and been fortunate enough to return.?

 

I know that I have been there and the three things that came together to bring me and my passengers back were an AH, sufficient fuel and recent simulator time. Without any one of those essentials and a very large dose of luck the last 235 years of the joys and the sorrows of life shared by the seven of us on board would never have been.

 

What follows is what I wrote of those events for a one of the flying magazines.

 

One Monday in March some years back, saw me pacing the early morning dew at Bathurst airfield. Our driver, desperate to get back to open his business was looking at his watch as often as was the passenger who had a shop to open in Melbourne. Neither of them understood nor wanted to understand the problem. They could see that the field was clear of storm, gale and fog so why the delay?

 

Days earlier on the outward journey storms over Katoomba had forced us to abandon the rented Cessna 210 at Bathurst and finish the journey by taxi.

 

When making plans for a family reunion and celebration weekend in the Blue Mountains this level of stress, uncertainty and delay was not anticipated. On the morning that we were all due back at our various workplaces everyone was stuck at Bathurst while I struggled with the go/no go decision.

 

So much for a relaxed weekend and for my reputation as someone who gets thing done - on time and on budget. My credibility was eroding fast, while the cloud, with tantalizing slowness , was just barely eroding from the ridge tops.

 

To balance the briefing office’s gloomy predictions, I obtained an actual weather from and aircraft at Canowindra. Since he was reporting CAVOK below high cloud I decided to take off and check the cloud/ridge interface from up close.

 

The passengers were loaded and advised that we would be returning to Bathurst if a clear path could not be found.

 

Viewed from the sky the gaps were larger; the horizontal visibility was definitely an improvement on the slant view from the ground. Not good, but not too bad; & I did have that actual report. Another decision made and VH-BEV rolled onto a track up the most open valley.

 

There was plenty of width between fingers of wispy cloud that barely reached down to the peaks. Straight ahead of us was a tunnel large enough to turn the QE2 . All I had to do was pop through that tunnel and then it would be smooth flying all the way home. One small obstacle to clear before I would get everyone home with all obligations and promises honoured.

 

Minutes later those wispy fingers became hands, hands gathering the land up into the cloud. The valley was narrower, and all ahead was grayish white down to the green of the trees. Or was it? Surely it was just another slant line illusion? And if only we were low enough it would again reveal that clear path up the valley. It had after, been clearly visible mere seconds ago.

 

Gently carefully, I eased the first millimeter off the throttle,. The pasture was now streaming past. A view abruptly punctured by a clump of trees, the mates of whom, I suddenly realized were a bout to obliterate two families.

 

It was time to stop laying the odds and to seriously aviate. Throttle forward, wings level, ease the trim towards climb. A wisp of mist swiped at the windshield as I checked the power. Then the view completely disappeared. The abruptness was a shock, as was the glaring white blackness.

 

Glaring white blackness?

 

That’s the very question that I asked myself. But I saw what I saw.

 

The engine note changed in step with my reflex snap back on the column and with the passengers’ silence. They were not pilots, but had been oft regaled by pilots’ stories. Do pilots ever tell stories that are not about being disoriented in cloud, stall and spin or other disasters?

 

I forced myself to focus on the AH. It showed winds level and the nose slightly up – we were climbing straight ahead.

 

What next?

 

Something about scan?

 

Yes Attitude, altitude, speed and direction.

 

Attitude? Climbing straight ahead, wings level – good.

 

Altitude? 3500 and climbing at 400 fpm.

 

Speeds MP? and airspeed OK for climb.

 

Direction? What direction ? I’d been chasing valleys wherever they led. All sense of direction was well lost.

 

Fossicking for the charts I remembered Scan!

 

Scan scan, scan., forget the charts.

 

I looked out to where there was no wing to see, merely water streaming along the Perspex. Beyond that , nothing, absolutely nothing; just more of that glaring white blackness.

 

Attitude, altitude, speed and direction

 

Attitude, altitude, speed and direction

 

Attitude, altitude, speed and direction

 

Good training , earlier ignored, asserted itself. The memorized litanies returned. Aviate, communicate, navigate.

 

Communicate! My God, communicate!. I had so far avoided the rocks in those clouds but what about speeding aluminium rocks?

 

“Canberra this is Cessna Bravo Echo Victor , VFR to the south of Bathurst seven POB. Passing through seven thousand VFR in solid cloud. Request assistance”.

 

“ Bravo Echo Victor , say again VFR in cloud?”

 

“Affirmative VFR in cloud”

 

“ Bravo Echo Victor, stand by….. Bravo Echo Victor remain this frequency and keep wings level on AH”.

 

“ Bravo Echo Victor”

 

” Bravo Echo Victor say again POB? And do you have an instrument rating?”

 

“Seven POB, no rating”

 

“ Bravo Echo Victor I am clearing this frequency of all other traffic.

 

Maintain wings level 0on AH. I repeat keep wings level on AH”

 

“ Bravo Echo Victor”.

 

“ Bravo Echo Victor keepings wings level can you advise your present position”.

 

“Maintaining heading two zero zero leaving 8500 feet on climb.

 

location unsure”.

 

“ Bravo Echo Victor, concentrate on wings level on AH. If possible maintain climb. We do not have you on radar at this time”.

 

“ Bravo Echo Victor”

 

Attitude, altitude, speed and direction

 

Attitude, altitude, speed and direction

 

Attitude, altitude, speed and direction

 

A tense 40 mins after we had entered cloud and as suddenly as we had originally been engulfed, we were spat out into brilliant light. Clear unblemished blue above and a solid froth of white below.

 

“Canberra, Bravo Echo Victor is maintaining 11200 on top of solid cloud, heading one eight zero”.

 

“ Bravo Echo Victor, keep wings level on AH and, if possible, maintain heading and remain clear of cloud”.

 

‘ Bravo Echo Victor”

 

“ Bravo Echo Victor your you are radar identified. Can you come onto a heading of one five eight, remaining clear of cloud?”

 

“One five eight Bravo Echo Victor”.

 

“Canberra Bravo Echo Victor is visual, ten thousand over Lake George”.

 

“ Bravo Echo Victor, remaining clear of cloud, descend to 5500. At 5500 contact Canberra approach on 124.5

 

“124.5 Bravo Echo Victor”

 

What else to say?

 

No one factor created the situation. Just the usual story of a cascading sequence of small deviations from best practice. Thankfully good training eventually did take over. On the ground, an excellent service shepherded two vulnerable babies and their families to safety.

 

Thank-you is so little to offer for such a big service. So little in exchange for seven lives. But thank you ATC was all that I had to offer then and all that I have today.

 

Calm, assured and professional guidance brought us safely home. That and the instructor who in supervising my transfer from a New Zealand PPL to an Australian one had insisted on a couple of hours of real IFR training in IFR conditions.

 

Today both of those infants have children of their own . Children who, we can only hope will grow up p forever protected from that subtle cascading sequence of small deviations. That killer cascade that converts people into statistics.

 

And, I wonder, VH-BEV where are you today?.

 

 

[facthunter]

Certainly worth relating. Hiho. If people can't make something out of that they aren't trying. You could have changed a lot of people's lives. Your instructor did well. Nev

 

 

[Rotorwork]

Occasionally I spend some time looking at flightradar 24.

 

If your aircraft has ADS B with mode S, and if you had a phone / iPad with flightradar 24, it would be possible to click on your aircraft and look at the 3D view (in app purchase pilots view)

 

I realise that vfr pilots should not be ifr, just wondering if this could save a life or two.

 

It would also take longer than 178 seconds to set up in the heat of the moment if you didn't have the app up and running.

 

Can someone with ADS B tell me if this would work and if the pilots view would let you know what your aircrafts attitude is.

 

(Not the pilots attitude)

 

Fly Safe

 

RW

 

 

[Robbo]

Occasionally I spend some time looking at flightradar 24. If your aircraft has ADS B with mode S, and if you had a phone / iPad with flightradar 24, it would be possible to click on your aircraft and look at the 3D view (in app purchase pilots view)

I realise that vfr pilots should not be ifr, just wondering if this could save a life or two.

 

It would also take longer than 178 seconds to set up in the heat of the moment if you didn't have the app up and running.

 

Can someone with ADS B tell me if this would work and if the pilots view would let you know what your aircrafts attitude is.

 

(Not the pilots attitude)

 

Fly Safe

 

RW

FR24 is delayed a minute or so, remember its data from a box in someone's house being fed into the internet then the server has to decode it and plot it on the map.

That minute could kill you if you are relying on it.

 

 

[Ungrounded]

Yep I've got a plan. Staying out of the clouds!!!

 

Here's another good video on the topic.

 

 

 

[dutchroll]

Anyone who has done the RAAF Institute of Aviation Medicine course on spatial disorientation, including those in the civilian world who've been lucky enough to do it or similar training courses involving things like the frictionless rotating chair, can tell you exactly how much your body lies to you in the absence of visual cues. It lies a lot.

 

It takes a fair deal of conditioning to enable people to trust their instruments over their non-visual senses, and to react to changes in their instruments while ignoring those senses.

 

We know you can read an altimeter and an ASI, and probably even an attitude indicator. But can you put all those together in the right order and against what your body is telling you? Do you have the training and discipline to devote the pre-requisite 80%+ attention to your attitude indicator, and the remaining 20% or less attention to "the rest" of your instruments in the radial scan pattern?

 

If not, stay well clear of cloud!

 

 

[facthunter]

Seat of the pants input is often misleading. You have to trust the instruments , totally. A lot of people who haven't flown IF, think they can work out which way is down . You can't. Nev

 

 

[Bennyboy320]

I dragged this comment of mine form a previous thread.

 

"Guys I'm going to comment with my Instrument Rating Examiners hat on, "don't get yourself into a situation where you may go IMC even for a short time," even if you have all that sky view stuff fitted to your a/c you will kill yourself, it's only a matter of time, no one mentions icing conditions eg OAT on the ground or TAT in the air of 10 degrees or less, I know most RAA a/c have no pitot heating, once IMC what then, what's the MSA or GRID MORA that you are going to decent to to get VMC again? if you loss situational awareness what then, are you in a position that you can declare a MAYDAY in a radar environment & get radar vectors to cloud break etc, if in a non radar environment you're ####ed, it's only a matter of time before you smear yourself & pax into the ground, at least spend your money on a BRS rather than having all these displays & thinking your capable & qualified to us them."

 

 

 

[Kiwi303]

How many of those with a fancy panel set have an autopilot? From what I read, it sounds wiser if you get trapped in IMC conditions to just pop the autopilot on and set it to climb wings level above the clouds... then just sit back and wait until you are VFR above the clouds again before finding a break to descend through. Or have ground control give a lower ceiling height and set the autopilot to descend below the clouds until you can go VFR again below the ceiling.

 

 

[dutchroll]

If you had an autopilot, yes engaging it in IMC is a good idea. It will at least give you attitude stabilisation and dramatically reduces workload.

 

Hand flying in cloud is not really any fun, even for an experienced instrument rated pilot. It's a fair amount of concentration and hard work to keep the plane pointed where it's supposed to be, and it's really easy to quickly screw it up if you get distracted.

 

But it always comes back to basics - if you're a VFR pilot, just stay out of it. If it's closing in ahead of you, there's no point in continuing in that direction!

 

 

[facthunter]

Trouble with climbing till you top out is it might get a bit colder and you will get ice. (You get colder as you climb always) OR you might hit a hill if you don't climb in the right direction. If you get into radar coverage you use the ATC people who will direct you to an area where you can get visual and that will be reliable guidance for adequate terrain clearance if you have the fuel and can maintain the plane in control. Do you have the reliability of a GA plane in the radio and electrical system of your aircraft?. Your mobile may be useful as a back up for radio if you can get the tower Phone No. Do you have cockpit and instrument lighting? It might get a bit dark in cloud. What if your pitot ices up? Do you have a reliable OAT indication? and good compass for heading references. or if a turn needle use RATE for heading changes. Nev

 

 

[kgwilson]

I am another who would not be here if I had not had the 5.1 hours under the hood during my training and had "Believe your Instruments" well and truly drummed in to me.

 

I thought I was always cautious and did the right things.

 

Our Company had 2 Dairy factories, one in Hamilton NZ where I worked and the other in Eltham a good 4 hour drive away or an hour from the Hamilton Airport to Stratford airstrip a few kms to the north of Eltham. I'd done the round trip many times taking various members of the Management team down for meetings and my own IT staff during new systems implementation and training.

 

It was the 14th of March 2001 & I'd got the weather, filed the flight plan by 6:30 am & left home to pick up one of my workmates & meet the other at the Aero Club. There was no wind and the morning was warm. There was high cloud and the odd scattered cloud at about 1500 feet. The forecast was good with a front predicted to move through from the south later in the day. This was a pretty common pattern & often the fronts petered out before they got to us at that time of the year. I preflighted the Archer, called Eltham for a current weather check, got us on board & we were cleared to go by ATC. I left CTR and climbed to cruising altitude of 3000 feet in silky smooth air. The high cloud was a good 2000 feet above us & the scattered lower cloud about a thousand feet below. All was going well when about 20 minutes into the flight the lower layer began to thicken up so I began a descent and went through a good sized hole. The base was about 1500 feet & I found myself in a valley over a Dairy farm & saw the cows making their way up the race to the Milking Shed. The first problem was that the hilltops were all in cloud so there was nowhere to go. I made a wide 360 turn but there was no way out and landing options were poor so decided we had to go back up through the hole & go home. The second problem was I could not find the hole after 3 circuits of the valley so my only option was to go up through the cloud.

 

I set my original heading and climbed in the cruise, eyes glued on the panel into the white wall. I felt as if we were turning to the right and had to force myself to put in some left yoke to keep the AH level. Scan the instruments I thought to myself but I was concentrating more on the AH level & noticed my speed being to drop & adjusted when the AH horizon began to get low. The engine seemed to be working hard & it was getting hot in the cockpit. I was sweating but kept my head down, now scanning the VSI, ASI, altimeter, AH, DI & quickly checking Ts & Ps. This seemed to be taking forever & I knew Mt Taranaki at 8,260 feet was in front and to the right. I'd not said anything to the guys and Renzo was in the back reading the morning paper as if he was on any RPT flight. Ricky, forever curious was asking questions about when would we come out of the cloud & how do we find the airstrip etc. I can't remember what I replied but it must have satisfied him. They had complete faith that I knew what I was doing. I didn't. Without warning we popped out into a sparkling blue sky with the sun brightly reflecting off the super whiteness of cloud below.

 

I levelled off at 9200 feet but could see nothing but a white carpet of cloud that seemed to have no end. I called Christchurch control advising them of what had occurred. Immediately ATC said squawk 7700 & standby. I was stunned. I'd never had to declare an emergency before & I didn't think this was one. I already had a squawk code so they knew where I was, I didn't. Within a few seconds and before Id changed the transponder code I spotted the South Taranaki Coast and completely clear air to the South. After several exchanges with ATC I convinced them all was OK and descended to about 2000 feet near the small town of Waverley & decided to follow the HT power lines that went all the way to Stratford, passing through the rear of the front and a wind change from NW to SW in pouring rain. I landed on the short cross strip just as the rain hit. We spent 15 or 20 minutes just sitting there getting rocked around while the rain pelted down & our ride to town arrived. The 1 hour flight ended up as 1.7 hours. We actually thought we'd be stuck there as the wind howled most of the day. We did get away later in the afternoon but that is another story.

 

What did I do wrong? I think I should have taken a reverse bearing as the weather was coming from the South, so in theory at least I'd have been in clear air a lot earlier & a lot closer to home. I also should have descended earlier so I would have had the option to go home under the low cloud.

 

 

[dutchroll]

Good lesson KG. There's nothing inherently wrong with flying VFR when there's cloud about. But the VFR pilot then needs to get very conscious of what that weather is doing, where it's going, and what his options are at all times.

 

I encountered the following scenario late last year on my way back from the Temora airshow. The departure weather was blue sky everywhere, but the forecast for the east coast and Hunter area was increasing scattered and broken cloud at around 2000-3000ft, and rain showers in some areas.

 

So what did I do?

 

1) I filled up the aux tank with fuel, which I hadn't originally planned to do. My planning showed that main tank fuel should be sufficient with reserves, but I had the weight available to fill the aux just before departure, so given the cruddy weather forecast, I did. This gave me nearly 90 minutes extra endurance.

 

2) I checked the weather forecasts for 4 or 5 different airfields near my planned route and destination. This gave me a good idea of which ones I could turn back to or divert to.......and which ones I probably couldn't.

 

3) I went high while the weather was good in the first part of the flight. This gave me a good view further down track to see what the cloud cover was doing.

 

4) When I saw off in the distance that it was going from scattered, to broken, to what appeared to be overcast, I descended early so as not to get trapped on top. I also saw that if I altered my north-easterly route further to the north, I could stay away from the overcast cloud for much longer. Also in that direction I had a good airport available with a reasonable weather forecast (Mudgee).

 

5) Eventually ending up under the broken cloud I kept a keen eye up ahead to ensure I wasn't heading towards any darker grey areas, any of the scattered showers, nor towards higher terrain. I had to do a few turns here and there to check behind me and make sure the weather wasn't closing in. Every so often I would update the recorded actual weather at destination and my alternates on my iPad (OzRunways). I had to alter my track a number of times to maintain a sensible course away from lower cloud patches while getting closer to the relative safe-haven of the lowlands of the Hunter Valley.

 

Does my plane have an attitude indicator? Yep. Why? Because I can, and it was convenient for a GPS slaved heading reference. Am I instrument rated? Yep. Is my plane IFR capable? Nope. Would I fly it in cloud or less than 5km vis? Only if I made an enormous stuff-up!