What do you predict will change in recreational flying in the next few years?

[RDavies]

Just curious, what do you think will change in the RAA scene in the next few years? What changes or trends do you predict in recreational air craft? Do you think there will be any changes to regulations? Maybe a weight increase? Anything else in the next few years?

 

 

[kasper]

1. Baby boomers who retired 5-8 years ago with bags of money and pushed RAA into high end will start to either pop their clogs or cease flying as other interests take precedence.

 

2. Result will be a glut of very expensive RAA aircraft coming onto the market that will not sell at the prices that are in the minds eye of the seller

 

3. Over supply of high end RAA airframes will result in even greater pressure on manufacturers/importers

 

4. Manufacturers/importers will in turn increased pressure for weight increases for RAA to gobble up more and more of the GA recreational pilots by giving them a path to operate at lower cost.

 

5. RAA and GA recreational processes and costs will merge together as RAA focus increasingly on satisfying the CASA regulators and following the money of RAA pilots at the top end

 

6. there will be a push from a small group of current RAA members for a seperate and 'backward' looking association breaking from RAA to operate minimum aircraft.

 

That's 5-8 years out ... my predictions for the next 24hours are I will be crucified for my predictions :-)

 

 

[Camel]

With the regulators doing what their doing things can only get worse, we have Inappropriate people trying to enforce Rediculious interpretations of safety. With my dealings so far with Casa sport aviation department I have no good thoughts about them and find that they lack basic common sense and they are doing what they can to destroy recreational aviation, pretty sad when three of these people are ex RAA managers and led by one and as for the rest of Casa it has never been an efficient or smart operation.

 

Here are examples of development going slow or not at all. Some of Australia's greatest aviation innovators have been hindered, hasselled and halted by Casa and THIS IS A FACT !

 

There are several current designer/ manufacturers being hasselled and hindered but I hope not halted but this is likely. Currently there is a designer/builder packing up to move O/S. Becoming a very unviable industry to be in.

 

Some examples of designs but to be fair both of these examples are deceased but it does show their great innovation, the Scott Winton video is hosted by Chris Conroy another great designer builder.

 

Some of Scott Wintons records still hold.

 

 

 

[fly_tornado]

I'd predict that in 10 years time the RAA will be less than 8000 members, down from the 9300 that its at now, which is 500 down from where it was 2 years ago. who knows how many importers will still be in business with all the used aircraft in the market?

 

Jabiru will be making a killing in China.

 

CASA will still be run by ex-RAAF ppl who can't get work in the airlines and aviation will continue to suffer from their "expertise"

 

 

[turboplanner]

So much for the hissy fitters.

 

There will be be break throughs in solar film and battery technology and electric motors will offer a whole new range of possibilities as they are now doing in RC.

 

There is potential for GA private and charter to make use of new engine technology to revive the cross country (day trip = two or three States. There will also be new grass routes and safer touring aircraft to replace the failed exotics Lancair and Cirrus.

 

 

[kasper]

So much for the hissy fitters.There will be be break throughs in solar film and battery technology and electric motors will offer a whole new range of possibilities as they are now doing in RC.

There is potential for GA private and charter to make use of new engine technology to revive the cross country (day trip = two or three States. There will also be new grass routes and safer touring aircraft to replace the failed exotics Lancair and Cirrus.

Last time I looked neither Cirrus nor Lancair are in the RAA scene (per the start of thread)

But I hope you're right on electric/battery technology.

 

 

[turboplanner]

Recreational aviation is more than the RAA world.

 

 

[kasper]

Recreational aviation is more than the RAA world.

Indeed it is .. but THIS thread specifically requested changes in the RAA scene ... and I interpreted this as RAAus ... though it could mean the wider recreational flying scene ... used to be MUCH simpler to specify clearly when there was AUF/HGFA and SAAA covering mostly exclusive areas of flying

 

 

[SDQDI]

Indeed it is .. but THIS thread specifically requested changes in the RAA scene ... and I interpreted this as RAAus ... though it could mean the wider recreational flying scene ... used to be MUCH simpler to specify clearly when there was AUF/HGFA and SAAA covering mostly exclusive areas of flying

Just to be a real pain............

The thread title only mentioned Recreational Flying, the first question posed did say RAA however the second question did just ask about rec aircraft. The third question while asking just about regs seemed to be aimed specifically at Raa because the following question was about weight increase which would seem to be only relevant to Raa.

 

So while Raa is a big part of it I don't think we should avoid talking about the GREC (GA Rec division:doh:)

 

Personally While I do think there will be a little more decline I have some optimism for the future. In RAA I think the board and leadership team must be doing something right as apart from some minor technical issues the biggest whine I've heard was about the hi-vis thing which in he great scheme of things isn't really a deal breaker! Once the kerfuffles with the new digital system are worked out I think the system as a whole will perform an awful lot better.

 

As far as rec flying as a whole, I think that some of the new technology that is around and being developed is exciting and I would think as time goes on the more affordable it will all get. Yes some older people are getting older and moving on but there is still interested people out there who just need some positive flyers to infect them with the bug. I am trying to do my part by keeping the kids excited about flying:thumb up:

 

 

[RDavies]

OK, as the OP, I did mention RAA, but yes, I would certainly like to read what your thoughts are on recreational GA flying as well. I kind of hope that in a few years I might have a GA licence, but realistically, RAA is where I would likely be spending my time.

 

 

[Fishla]

Put me down for one of those cheap high-end aircraft in 5 years time.

 

Hopefully one with an electric motor and solar panels.

 

 

[cscotthendry]

Moves are now afoot to bring increased MTOW in the RAA fleet. This will see those Cirrus and Lancair (and some of the lighter GA types) aircraft possibly enter the RAA. Moves are also afoot to bring in a CTA endorsement for RAA and this will also encourage migration fro GA for recreational flyers. This will add further to the woes of the GA support industries and see a big shakeout of service and equipment providers to GA or a migration of them to follow the planes into the RAA sphere.

 

Unfortunately, I agree that the baby boomer fliers (like myself) will cease flying and the next generations will not have the financial resources to enter and make up the numbers. I don't think rec flying will die in my lifetime, but it might in my son's or his son's time, unless the politicians do something about the massive redistribution of all the wealth to the already rich.

 

 

[turboplanner]

will Yes some older people are getting older and moving on but there is still interested people out there who just need some positive flyers to infect them with the bug. I am trying to do my part by keeping the kids excited about flying:thumb up:

Some people just can't come to terms with a moving population; they tend to stick with the names they know and watch them die or get out and the lament starts.

In the 1930's we were losing the pioneers, in the 1960's we were losing the immense WW2 talent, in the 1970's we were losing the Arthur Schutt types who provided cheap aircraft and motivation for revreational flying, but a new breed always came along.

 

 

[Yenn]

The editor of Australian Flying magazine has predicted an increase for RAAus to 750kg.

 

I think this is quite probable. Cirrus and Lancair would possibly not be acceptable, because of theit high speeds. I would predict that Cessna, Piper, Beech etc aircraft could be put on the RAAus register.

 

There is also the possibility of another organising body taking some of RAAus registrations and pilots.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

so Vans RV4s and RV6/6As are in?

 

 

[jetjr]

The min stall is the real killer for many exisitng models

 

Was talk of removing this for a more comprehensive method which can be better measured and more accurately reflects performance limitations intended

 

 

[Roundsounds]

Provided RAAus continue down the path of effective self regulation (self auditing, improvement and learning from past mistakes) I see a strong future for the organisation. GA will continue down the path of demise, CASR Part 61/141 will see to that. RAAus need to make the transition from GA as easy as possible, minimal / no exams and competency based along the lines of the RPL transition (ie issue an RPC, same endorsements as GA licence, type transition training based on competency and a flight review). There needs to be a greater emphasis on education rather than regulation, this needs to be guided by the safety stats once they can be analysed properly. This is an opportunity RAAus needs to grab and run with now. The technical side of things needs to be sorted before any increase in MTOW is considered. The Tech Manual is way out of date and not relevant to the modern types entering service. There's no objective assessment, recognition or training path for maintainers, this will stop the heavier aircraft being accepted. CASA has been seeking this for many years, they will have zero interest in weight increases until RAAus can demonstrate a proper system of maintenance. This system should accommodate the range of types operated, including the builders own schedule to the manufacturers requirements, there's not a one size fits all system and it will be difficult to create that without some members being adversely affected.

 

So, the future of RAAus looks good provided it's managed properly.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

The historical trend for the RAA is decline, it had 10,500 members in 2010 and now its down to 9,300. The pool of ex-GA pilots has to be exhausted or close to it now.

 

 

[scre80]

The historical trend for the RAA is decline, it had 10,500 members in 2010 and now its down to 9,300. The pool of ex-GA pilots has to be exhausted or close to it now.

Hence the need to get more young people involved.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

Young people are facing a few major issues, expensive cost of living in urban areas, declining career opportunities in rural and regional areas, reduced earning potential and a bevy of alternative recreational options.

 

 

[scre80]

Young people are facing a few major issues, expensive cost of living in urban areas, declining career opportunities in rural and regional areas, reduced earning potential and a bevy of alternative recreational options.

I never knew about recreation aviation til around a year ago. Once I learnt about it and how much cheaper than GA, I signed up right away. I wish I knew this 15 years ago!! It was only when I went looking I found out about it.

While you are correct, it also comes down to promoting Recreation Aviation to the young and next generation. Great opportunity to get into schools to promote this. I believe there is a few schools around offering an aviation subject too.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

But every industry is busy promoting itself, look at the mega bucks that goes into motorsport every year.

 

 

[scre80]

But every industry is busy promoting itself, look at the mega bucks that goes into motorsport every year.

And that is why we can not be left behind, getting into schools and the young generation early is critical.

 

 

[Doug Evans]

I hope too still be buzzing around in my little two stroke lightwing in enother 20 years regardless of what happen in the future !

 

 

[RDavies]

I never knew about recreation aviation til around a year ago. Once I learnt about it and how much cheaper than GA, I signed up right away. I wish I knew this 15 years ago!! It was only when I went looking I found out about it.While you are correct, it also comes down to promoting Recreation Aviation to the young and next generation. Great opportunity to get into schools to promote this. I believe there is a few schools around offering an aviation subject too.

I am in the same boat. When I was in my 20s I first looked at getting a pilots licence but costs were prohibitive ($5000) for a GA licence at my age. Over the next 25 or so years I thought about if a few times but heard it was around $20000 to get a pilots licence now.

I only found out about RAA by chance and had no idea about this side of things. I was surprised when I found I could get a pilots certificate for cheaper than I could 25 years ago. I have told a few of my friends about it and they all thought the same thing, to get a pilots licence (certificate) was only for the rich. Some of my friends have already done a TIF or first lessons 2 months after I found out about it.

 

How many other people out there in my demographic (mid 40s, good job, wife back to work, kids moving out, still got 20 years of work to go) could RAA target if they advertised and got the word out.

 

Getting some schools involved is a great idea. At their age, they likely wont stay in aviation unless they choose it as a career, but if they have a taste of it, then 20 years down the track they will be more likely to return.

 

What other ways can they get the word out to the target demographic? Maybe some newspaper or general interest magazine adds? A few more open, come and try days? A few thousand spent on marketing could give good returns in the future.