dutchroll Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Yep I have done that, turned it into a 500' circuit and then parked her in the hanger. Same. Done it several times. I remember a pax jolly I was doing not long ago: "Ah bugger, this weather is a bit more average than I thought.........sorry mate, nothing wrong with the plane but I'm pulling the power right back (we entered light rain showers and high rpm will strip paint off the propeller), and heading straight back to the airfield. We'll do this another day." Very easy. No one gets hurt, plane is good, and the passenger gets another much more enjoyable flight later. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobody Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 This thread stared with a lot of jumping to conclusions and it seems it has continued that way. We don't know anything for certain at this stage other than an aircraft has crashed and people have perished. While the weather is likely a contributor we don't know for certain that it wasn't an IFR flight. We dont really know for sure what the actual weather was at the time and that location. There are many possible reasons and few certain answers at the moment. I have heard people on this site wanting more ATSB investigations. They will be investigation this one and publishing their report with some good safety messages. When that's available we will be able to disect the decisions of the pilot. It's not really a constructive discussion until that information is available.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happyflyer Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I think we do know it was not IFR. There was no plan on the system. They wouldn't leave on an IFR flight without a plan submittted. You can check on Flightaware. If you put in a plan it will be recorded on Flightaware. There are no plans recorded for this aircraft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spriteah Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Yeah wishful thinking, it's been going on for years if people cannot learn from that then so be it. Do you really think that those 3 people had no idea that flying in those conditions has killed a lot of people? and that no one had explained that to them? What is that saying? there are no new ways to kill yourself in a aeroplane. I think they all knew the risks. Then for what ever reason chose to ignore or discount them. That is human factors. Now why did that occur, that is what needs to be understood and used to educate. I hope some good comes from this tragic event. I'm certain the club friends and family are all suffering at present. Hopefully this occurrence will be a learning event for some and save lives in the future. Jim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red750 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I recall a flight in a Piper Arrow, out of YSBK up towards the central coast. Forecast looked OK, but by the time we got abeam Hornsby it was looking particularly uninviting. My words to pax were, "Don't know about you guys, but my half's turning back." Had the plane booked, so quickly planned another sightseeing trip down to Stanwell Tops. Only scrape I ever had was during navex training. I was with an instructor, YMMB-YBSS-YBDG-YMMB. While coming back though the Kilmore Gay, things started closing in. We made it through, and made an unscheduled landing at YLIL. Waited out the worst of the storm cell. Could see light to the south west, so the instructor said, "Let's go." Called in airborne, saying we were inbound and could see the runway. The Musketeer was bouncing around like a cork in a storm, and the radio crackled with every lightning flash. When we taxied in and disembarked, the sky looked really vicious, with forks of lightning everywhere. Couldn't believe I'd just flown through it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shafs64 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 it will came back as VFR into ICM. and i don't think many people here will bet against that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutchroll Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 This thread stared with a lot of jumping to conclusions and it seems it has continued that way.We don't know anything for certain at this stage other than an aircraft has crashed and people have perished. Seriously? I mean......really? Witness Johnny Kay said he noticed a plane was flying quite low before the crash."It was sort of veering off. It wasn't plummeting or anything it was just cruising, it was going down lower and lower," he said. "I thought it was quite strange at the time. You couldn't tell [it was in trouble. "The weather was horrible. It was windy, raining, foggy, it was a terrible day." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djpacro Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 .... We dont really know for sure what the actual weather was at the time and that location.... .. some know exactly what the weather was like at that time and location. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbo Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 http://www.wunderground.com/history/wmo/94850/2016/1/29/DailyHistory.html?req_city=YKII&req_state=TA&req_statename=Tasmania&reqdb.zip=00000&reqdb.magic=3&reqdb.wmo=94850 http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/YMAV/2016/1/29/DailyHistory.html?req_city=YMAV&req_state=VC&req_statename=Victoria&reqdb.zip=00000&reqdb.magic=3&reqdb.wmo=94854 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobody Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Yep Dutch roll really. You are relying from a quote in the media, a media who a few hours ago didn't know the difference between a Cherokee and a Cheiftan. There is no context as to what else the witness saw or the time that they saw it. It is very likely that weather played a part but we don't know the full story yet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutchroll Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 This is true. And without a CVR or FDR we never will. However they actually have an eyewitness (in addition to the one I quoted) who saw the plane impact the water. At very low altitude, at a steep angle of bank, with power on. In really crappy weather. Read into that whatever you like. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbo Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 This is true. And without a CVR or FDR we never will.However they actually have an eyewitness (in addition to the one I quoted) who saw the plane impact the water. At very low altitude, at a steep angle of bank, with power on. In really crappy weather. Read into that whatever you like. Dutch That was the fisherman wasn't it? I believe he was in the vicinty and went to the impact zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutchroll Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Yes. That's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobody Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 http://www.wunderground.com/history/wmo/94850/2016/1/29/DailyHistory.html?req_city=YKII&req_state=TA&req_statename=Tasmania&reqdb.zip=00000&reqdb.magic=3&reqdb.wmo=94850http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/YMAV/2016/1/29/DailyHistory.html?req_city=YMAV&req_state=VC&req_statename=Victoria&reqdb.zip=00000&reqdb.magic=3&reqdb.wmo=94854 Robbo, While these links are interesting they don't really paint a complete picture on their own. One interesting observation in is the change in the dew point spread at around midday at Avalon and 2pm at King Island. Compare the Avalon data at 10:30 with the midday results shows that there was a change in wind direction as well as a significant increase in the humidity during this time frame. This possibly indicates a change in conditions happening from the west and moving through to the east with a deterioration in conditions as the change occurred. The dew point spread can give an indication of the likely coudbase. At midday at King island the Dew Point Spread (17-12=5) would indicate a couldbase of about 2000 feet. The values for Avalon show a similar dew point spread and hence could base prior to the change and so a similar coudbase would be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djpacro Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I recall looking out from the cafe on the coast at the time and thinking that the cloud base was close to the water. Clouds and water were a very similar shade of gray. I was a little bit along the coast but looking at the same stuff. Adventure flights at Barwon Heads had stayed on the ground due low cloud and rain - to at least 2 pm that day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairoaks Flyer Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The problem with the investigators (ATSB) is they take so long (often two years) to hand down their findings. By then everyone has forgotten about the incident because another one has occurred and is fresher in everyone's minds. All reports need to be analysed more quickly and fully reported ASAP. Also there needs to be better investigation and reporting of RAAus's accidents and incidents by ATSB, as the police don't understand aviation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutchroll Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The ATSB, like almost every Government organisations except the Border Force, is very under-funded. With multiple concurrent investigations running and a limited numbers of investigators and resources, unfortunately the long wait for final reports is a consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeliPilot70 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 As a low time pilot I read these threads for lessons to learn to keep me and my pax alive. Whatever actually happened in this flight is still being investigated, but I have already learned much from the personal experiences shared here, and that's a huge benefit. CASA posted this in their facebook page a couple of week ago and it is very sobering. R.I.P. and may we learn from your loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bernie Knight Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Mmmm how's this for a quote from 'the horses mouth ' I think they say.... " I came in as we could not see the Lonny lighthouse from a kilometer out. The swell was rolling about 1 meter troughs. It was fu&@ing p!ssing down and windy" "The boys came in also. It's lucky that plane didn't hit the black lighthouse" I think I recall the conversation verbatim. The 'Lonny' lighthouse is a local heading point for the locals coming back through the Heads to Queenscliffs boat ramp (Point Lonsdale) The rolling swell would have been outside the Heads. The black lighthouse is within the Queenscliff army forte. All within a couple of kilometers of the crash site. It's interesting to hear a local fisherman observation. I'm not sure if he spoke to authorities. But was obviously happy to tell our local Point Lonsdale coffee shop owner. He went on to say he was fishing with the guys who witnessed and attended the crash site. It sounded as if there were a few boats out just prior and at the time of the crash. Some boats would have come in earlier as ebb tides make it difficult at the boat ramp. Others obviously came in due to the swell, wind and rain. Interesting conversation between long time locals and fishermen. Mmm no doubt everyone will have an opinion. But in these small communities there are so many Coast Guard volunteers and SES volunteers who turn out to assist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbo Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Robbo,While these links are interesting they don't really paint a complete picture on their own. One interesting observation in is the change in the dew point spread at around midday at Avalon and 2pm at King Island. Compare the Avalon data at 10:30 with the midday results shows that there was a change in wind direction as well as a significant increase in the humidity during this time frame. This possibly indicates a change in conditions happening from the west and moving through to the east with a deterioration in conditions as the change occurred. The dew point spread can give an indication of the likely coudbase. At midday at King island the Dew Point Spread (17-12=5) would indicate a couldbase of about 2000 feet. The values for Avalon show a similar dew point spread and hence could base prior to the change and so a similar coudbase would be expected. Agree, but these were posted just to give you an idea on basic conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Perry Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Someone mentioned earlier that this particular flight may have been IFR ? ? ? I'm not sure of the flight rules in Australia nowadays, not having been subject to same since 1983,. . .but when I was instrument rated,. . . I wouldn't have been flying as low as the subject aircraft was reputed to have been Firstly, I'd file an IFR plan and fly at a sensible level, to take full advantage of the many ground based navaids which are put there for that purpose for one thing,. . . secondly, I can think of no sensible reason that would make me want to fly as low as 3 - 400 ft AMSL. . . ( ? ) Thirdly,. . .if the weather was as crap as it has been reported to have been, then I would have cancelled the plan and gone to the pub for a countery UNLESS. . .it was a commercial flight and the flying appliance had at least two engines, and was fully de-ice compliant, then high levels in airways might have been available to clear the Wx. The RVAC has been mentioned, . . .a worthy organization indeed, but this does not mean that all of it's members / aircraft renters are capable of working miracles given a really BAD weather scenario. The last similar story I heard was of two current ATPL qualified pilots crewing a C-172 across the Welsh mountains some years ago. . .with a couple of pax on board also. How the hell they managed to slam the aircraft into a hill covered in slate near Mt.Snowdon I do not know. . . .Well,. . .I DO really,. . .they were doing the VMC in IMC thing again,. . .in an underequipped machine. The result was a quad fatality jobbie. As a few experienced posters have already noted, this just keeps on happening. Experienced pilots doing bloody dangerous things, and not getting away with it. NOW,. . .if this was an engine fail,. . .that's one thiing, but the witness said the engine was roaring,. . .so it's going to be spatial dis. and loss of control isn't it ?. . . . Doesn't matter HOW many pilots you have in the aircraft, there's only ONE driving. ( or bloody well should be anyway ) so that shouldn't be anything to do with it ( unless you're a media reporter of course,. . .good grist ) Just my thoughts, take them as you will. Tin hat on. Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Perry Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I ought to add to the post above the fact that I HATE "Committee" flights, where there is more than one qualified pilot on board,. . .I have encountered this on several occasions,. . when being P1 and as a back seater. . . I've never been on one yet where the P1 was not questioned on his decisions. . . .BAD BAD BAD. Not saying that this had ANYTHING to do whatsoever. . . . with this post scenario, but it is a fact of life, especially amongst low time private pilots. ( In MY particular experience ) I HAVE found that, the more experienced a "passenger pilot" is, the less they seem inclined to offer an opinion of what the driver is doing,. . .unless asked of course ! Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
facthunter Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Depends on how critical the situation is. Do you just sit there, say nothing and DIE? Naturally it has to be constructive and not add to the problem. There should only be ONE PIC, but remember, use all cockpit resources . Nev 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutchroll Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 We use "RAISE" to manage upwards to the PIC. Enquiry stage: R - Relay information (We're at 500ft and it looks pretty bad ahead) A - Ask if they are aware (Are you seeing that weather ahead?) Concern stage: I - indicate concern (I'm a bit worried about that weather ahead and our altitude.) S - offer a solution (How about we turn around and go back?) Emergency stage: E - use emergency language (WE MUST TURN AROUND NOW OR WE'LL BE IMC AT 500 FEET!) I know this sounds long-winded, but you can skip any stage as appropriate (eg you might end up going straight to the "emergency" stage). Also you'd be surprised how often just the "enquiry" stage is enough to prompt action from a pilot. Then you don't have to go any further into it. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eightyknots Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 but you are on the ground. looking at low cloud thinking its 1000 ft its really lower than that when you take off I think this is an issue that needs to be carefully weighed up by pilots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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