The XPB Stage 1 underway.

[turboplanner]

The National Cabinet and National and State Medical Officers have been pounding it, but local government, which interfaces with the public has dropped the ball with a few exceptions

 

The young people particularly have not realised the danger after having been told they will only get a mild version; they haven't been aware they if they contract the virus they can kill their parents or grandparents.

[turboplanner]

There's already a dozen new cases in Sydney directly linked to those cruise ship passengers.

Meanwhile at Bondi Beach ..

They had to be removed by Police.

The State Minister came down to Bondi and read the riot act yesterday, suggesting the Mayor hadn't done her job.

He was followed by a Police Commissioner who subtly alluded to the difficulty of handling 25,000 alcohol fueled resistors on a beach.

She was followed by the Mayor who immediately closed Bondi and two other beaches.

This morning a few hundred pushed the closure signs aside and went down onto the beach. They were removed.

The good news is that incident shamed enough people that the blatant mass activities just about dried up, but we started going into lockdown this afternoon and if you download the Channel 9 news app, you should see the Prime Minister announce what is closing down either around midnight or early tomorrow morning. I've found those National Cabinet press conferences are better than the newspapers because the journalists haven't had time to spin the stories.

[kgwilson]

The message may finally be getting through but there are still plenty who don't care and have not listened to those who know. If the same rate of infection continues there will be 2600 cases by Thursday, and 5200 in a weeks time. The bell curve needs to start flattening now or we will lose control. We lack the enforcement capability of China.

[bexrbetter]

We lack the enforcement capability of China.

 

No enforcement. Australia has twice as many police as China does BTW, many more if you consider physical size, strength and aggression levels. The majority of Chinese police are unarmed also. On the other hand the few that are armed won't hesitate ...

 

How about constant information educating the people who then know the reasons why they should follow the proper paths. One News TV station was devoted to this 24 hours a day, constant hourly message information streams on your mobile phone and most Chinese will watch/read it, not the footy ...

 

Note that Chinese are terrified of death, you don't talk about it, you don't joke about it, the number 4 is considered bad luck because it sounds like the Chinese word for death (like floor 13, many Chinese hotels don't have a 4th floor) and that's a part of it, taking risks is simply out of the question unlike plenty of apathetic/gung-ho Australians (and English and Americans).

[turboplanner]

How about constant information educating the people who then know the reasons why they should follow the proper paths. One News TV station was devoted to this 24 hours a day, constant hourly message information streams on your mobile phone and most Chinese will watch/read it, not the footy ...

The Commonwealth Government has started pumping that out; got a good email tonight from them.

However, it's nowhere near the saturation it should be.

Bondi, now forever crowned FW centre of the Year after the story went round the world has done more to jolt people into serious thought than anything else so far.

We're up near South Korea in Testing rate though, and that gives accurate geographic locations of clusters which has worked well for South Korea.

[bexrbetter]

News just in: A British family of 6 just landed in Beijing, 4 of them are infected, and now of course they have to find everybody, not just who was on the plane, but all the other people who were in the airport - and flown all over China since. Then there's the taxis, trains and buses people caught, sigh. Hopefully not many on the plane were infected, but it's without doubt some were.

 

In fact, all the recent weeks cases have mostly been people returning to China, or Chinese escaping other Countries for the safety of home ... oh the irony.

[turboplanner]

News just in: A British family of 6 just landed in Beijing, 4 of them are infected, and now of course they have to find everybody, not just who was on the plane, but all the other people who were in the airport - and flown all over China since. Then there's the taxis, trains and buses people caught, sigh. Hopefully not many on the plane were infected, but it's without doubt some were.

 

In fact, all the recent weeks cases have mostly been people returning to China, or Chinese escaping other Countries for the safety of home ... oh the irony.

And the few Australian Squealers trapped in places like Ecuador, who flew out after all the initial warnings and now want DFAT to send an aircraft to get them.

Also the single party in Sydney that produced 30 infections.

[Methusala]

I posted that excellent youtube to facebook yesterday. Yes, it should be broadcast at saturation level on all tv channels. My wife and I returned from Vietnam on Thursday. In Ho Chi Minh all at the terminal wore masks. When we arrived at Mascot we were the only ones to wear them! We are currently in day 3 of serious self isolation. This is not a game.

[kgwilson]

The expert opinion is that Masks are hardly worth the effort unless you are infected with Covid-19. It may make you feel more comfortable seeing people wearing them but unless they have the disease they are a waste of time.

 

"Experts believe those with coronaviruses most often spread the infection via "respiratory droplets" — the little secretions we generate when we sneeze or cough.

 

Because of this, the virus tends to spread between people who are in close contact.

 

Surgical masks — the ones you typically see in public — provide some barrier against larger droplets and splashes of fluid being shared by infected people.

 

This is why people who are sick are encouraged to wear them, and why they are a sensible precaution in a place like Wuhan, the disease epicentre.

 

Surgical face masks, however, are not designed to provide respiratory protection, said Abrar Chughtai, an infectious disease epidemiologist from the University of New South Wales.

 

"When face masks were designed in the early 19th century, surgeons started using them to prevent the spread of their pathogens into operating fields," Dr Chughtai said.

 

"The main objective ... was to prevent the spread of infection."

 

Surgical masks do not provide a seal around the face, and therefore do not filter viral airborne particles.

 

"Sick people should use face masks. For healthy people ... at the community level, there is no use for face masks," Dr Chughtai said."

[bexrbetter]

The expert opinion is that Masks are hardly worth the effort unless you are infected with Covid-19. It may make you feel more comfortable seeing people wearing them but unless they have the disease they are a waste of time.

 

 

Again, lack of public education.

 

China encouraged all people to wear masks mostly to help prevent the spread of common colds and flu to prevent people being less vulnerable IF they contracted the Virus. It was never just to stop infected people spreading the virus alone.

 

Say what you want, China has clearly shown what works to bring the spread of the most contagious virus in modern history to a trickle now, and that includes wearing masks.

 

The only "experts" so far are China.

[turboplanner]

We went from 20,000 tests to around 193,000 over the weekend, so the government seems to be following South Korea's strategy.

Still people on this site ignoring the essential services travel only. Victorian Premier said yesterday if people don't stop breaking the advisories we will go into the next and much more severe stage of lockdown.

[Methusala]

Mask wearing is important if there is a chance that you are a symptom-less carrier and you must be within reasonably close contact with others. Think of all possibilities.

[Methusala]

There exist studies on the benefit to society of altruistic behavior. Altruism benefits society as a whole because a benefit conferred to another can be advantageous to individuals. If I prevent transfer of infection to another person, that person will not inadvertently go on to infect others so keeping the overall numbers less.

[Methusala]

Vietnam, a country of over 90m people report a total of 121 cases. They are taking very positive steps to track and isolate every case in isolation hotels fully provided at State expense.

[IBob]

Yep. The bit I don't get is that leaves them with 89,999,839 people vulnerable to the virus once they open the borders again......

[Methusala]

"Yep. The bit I don't get is that leaves them with 89,999,839 people vulnerable to the virus once they open the borders again......" IBob

 

IBob, this is not about herd immunity, it's about protecting the population from a wave of cases that will easily swamp the health system. Time is your friend in this pandemic.

[IBob]

Yes, I got that, Methusela. And I don't disagree with whatever measures they are taking (which are in any case none of my business, since I don't live there).

However, none of this makes the 'then what?' question go away, for any of us:

The answer to the 'then what?' is you then lift the lid...whereupon the number of cases increases...so you shut the lid again, and so on.

The inconvenient fact is that, unless we can come up with a vaccine or some other measure to combat the thing, the process of not letting the health system be overwhelmed by repeatedly shutting the lid goes on for years.

[IBob]

It's my belief that, barring the discovery and manufacture and distribution and administering of a vaccine to entire nations (and imagine the logistics in that!), we will come up with various measures and systems that allow us to take the lid off for longer, so infecting larger numbers of the population, while limiting the downsides of that so as to be manageable.

Well, it's a theory...and it's what I'm hoping for.

[turboplanner]

Yes, I got that, Methusela. And I don't disagree with whatever measures they are taking (which are in any case none of my business, since I don't live there).

However, none of this makes the 'then what?' question go away, for any of us:

The answer to the 'then what?' is you then lift the lid...whereupon the number of cases increases...so you shut the lid again, and so on.

The inconvenient fact is that, unless we can come up with a vaccine or some other measure to combat the thing, the process of not letting the health system be overwhelmed by repeatedly shutting the lid goes on for years.

It's not exactly like lifting the lid and it's changed enough in the last few hours that I can't give you a clear picture, but what worked with the Plague and the Spanish Flu was isolation. The second part is that this virus dies quickly, as short as 5 hours if someone sprays a benchtop by coughing. so we are practising separation from each other by a minimum 1.5 metres, washing hands frequently, and not touching our faces (which transfers the virus from benchtops/food/packages/shopping trolleys. Over apl of the the government has only been testing people who have been in touch with a confirmed case, which up until a couple of days ago was overseas visitors. The community has started to spread it, shipments of test kits are arriving and the government, which had managed to test close to the South Korean level, has gone into high gear. The positive tests, when database shows the streams of the virus, so it's much easier to isolate clusters and lock them down until the clusters are free of the virus. So you have a large part of the population negative to the virus, a small part locked up in clusters, and when each cluster is clear of the virus (successful isolation, recoveries, deaths), the lid can be lifted on that cluster to release those people into the big negative group.

[IBob]

Turboplanner what do you mean 'negative to the virus'?

[Old Koreelah]

This video explains the virus behavior very well.

Thanks for this, Wayne. By far the clearest resource on this pandemic.

It got my attention. Even though I haven't been a smoker, I have the early stages of emphysema.

This virus could kill me.

 

If only our own government could communicate so clearly.

[pmccarthy]

With hours to spare in self isolation, this book might be a good read. I am on my second reading of it. Journal of the Plague Year (1665) by Daniel Defoe.

https://www.gutenberg.org/files/376/376-h/376-h.htm

[Methusala]

The following link is to a very comprehensive report on "our options". You may find it helpful.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

It illustrates how bleak the future may be if we don't handle it with ruthless discipline. On the other hand it gives some bright hope for the future.

[Marty_d]

Thanks for this, Wayne. By far the clearest resource on this pandemic.

It got my attention. Even though I haven't been a smoker, I have the early stages of emphysema.

This virus could kill me.

 

If only our own government could communicate so clearly.

 

This is good too.

 

https://medium.com/@jpsmithalt/hold-the-line-17231c48ff17

 

We pulled our kids from school even though they're still open in Tas. My wife and I are lucky enough to have jobs that allow this, I know thousands are not that lucky. First day of home schooling went pretty well!

 

The important thing is - EVERY unnecessary contact is another possible vector for infection. If everyone limits their exposure to absolutely vital activity then the curve will flatten and we won't see the total overwhelming of the medical system that we see in Italy and other countries.

[Methusala]

My view, FWIW, is that we must track,test and isolate and be rigorous about very hard self isolation. South Korea has reduced the infection rate from similar to Italy's down to a very low number. We need to avoid swamping the health system because it is required to treat many other life threatening conditions, not just Covid 19. China has managed to reduce re-infection almost entirely...remember that in affected ares they had only one person per dwelling allowed to obtain food once in 3 days. This was rigidly enforced.