Cyclone Debbie! Aircraft Owners,Be Pepared.

[Litespeed]

All the sailors I know opt to push up into mangrove line creeks and tie off to multiple trees. Calm water, sheltered by mangroves than can take a flogging. Worst case you rub up against a muddy bank or bump into some mangroves.I have been at sea in a force 10, no way I would be out there in a cyclone, thats crazy talk.

Some would say its is crazy at sea- Yes it is like been stuck inside a washing machine. But I would rather be out there then in a mangrove with a 8-10m surge- most would be ripped clean of the anchor points and may end up, who knows where. A quality yacht can batten down , set small storm sails and ride it out. Been done that way for centuries. Naturally it would be best to head away from the area well before the storm approaches.

 

Each to their own- stay safe and yes boats an planes can be replaced.

 

 

[farri]

Naturally it would be best to head away from the area well before the storm approaches..

A couple of days ago,Cyclone Debbie was expected to come onto the Queensland coast, around the Cairns area.....The only accurate prediction of an impending Cyclone is that they are unpredictable and can change direction at any time...In this case, which direction would have been the right way to go?

 

Frank

 

 

[facthunter]

A cyclone doesn't move at anything like the speed of the winds it generates Any aircraft can move faster than the system actually travels but sensibly you batten it down or don't go near the active area if one is around. Regular Airlines can fly close with caution. Height and weather radar help to navigate in the vicinity. Nev

 

 

[bexrbetter]

...In this case, which direction would have been the right way to go?Frank

Inland.

 

 

[nomadpete]

Inland.

Inland - about 300 klm

 

 

[facthunter]

True... They peter out when deprived of their energy. (Moist hot air). You could also remain in higher latitudes and enjoy the autumn weather. I haven't met anyone who likes being in a cyclone. I enjoy thunder and lightning sometimes. It's quite an event worth experiencing (from the ground) in Darwins wet season. I actually recommend going there for that purpose, but don't get struck by it. Nev

 

 

[Litespeed]

A couple of days ago,Cyclone Debbie was expected to come onto the Queensland coast, around the Cairns area.....The only accurate prediction of an impending Cyclone is that they are unpredictable and can change direction at any time...In this case, which direction would have been the right way to go?Frank

Yes agreed, that is why boaties should get the hell away from Dodge as soon as the bureau confirms it is coming- in this case it has been noted with many days to sail away and head North or south east with all speed. A slow yacht will do 140 nm a day under power, a lot more under sail. That really adds up quickly with many days of notice.

 

 

[frank marriott]

Flying out is not always an option depending on family commitments.

 

When Yassie hit Townsville I flew out to Emerald the day before and next day when I received the report that it hit and loss of power etc. I continued on to Hervey Bay and stayed with relatives for a week before returning to fix the mess. The thing that remains in my mind was for the first hour laying off 40° to maintain TMG.

 

This time I remained due to family (a two seater limits your options) - an aircraft becomes a minor priority in some circumstances.

 

 

[farri]

Inland.

Sorry Mark, I should have explained myself better, I meant boats! My reply was to Litespeed and he was talking about boats.

 

Frank.

 

 

[Blueadventures]

Wind speed above VSI is bad news, but above Vne? You've got to be kidding!Best wishes to all in the affected area, trust there's enough screws in the hangar roof.

Thats above my vne (its 117kts) Nynja. Waiting for system to pass and check the aircraft at the hangar. Told ok earlier to day so hoping luck continues. If you look on bom site of cuclone current position and then the rain radar in looks like center is between proserpine and seaforth not west of prossy. I'm not an expert but would think the circulating tain mass markes the position of winds center of rotation ??? Try the 612km radius. Cheers

 

 

[David2ayo]

They peter out when deprived of their energy. (Moist hot air).

So thats why a cyclone is like a politician. Maybe I shouldn't be too rude yet - the pollies seem to be getting off their backsides on this occasion.

 

David

 

 

[Yenn]

For once the predictions of track were good. I did hear mention of a 7m storm surge from ABC but they are always calling wolf.

 

I notice a TV picture of a yacht heading straight for a rock wall, in flat seas but it had what looked like pennants all the way up its forestay. Obviously not prepared for a blow.

 

I hope you are all safe and no planes or anything else damaged.

 

 

[Cosmick]

Lucky that the Cyclone slowed down and didn't cross till Lunchtime. There is a 5m + difference between high and low tides, High Tide was around 8am and had fortunately subsided prior to the storm surge.

 

 

[winsor68]

Pioneer River...photos taken yesterday at 4.15pm and then today at 4.15pm.

 

 

 

 

 

[turboplanner]

25,000 people ordered to evacuate the low lying areas of Mackay by midnight.

What was so funny Win?

They evacuated the Green and Red map areas.

 

I located the maps and the tide data and was plotting the status right through the night; I sent you a message offering to send data if you were in a low lying area, but got no reply, which didn't surprise me because my son was caught in the brown zone, and his phone went out early.

 

The Emergency centre were predicting a 2.2 metre storm surge early in the night which put the water a street or so away from his unit.

 

Shortly after, the cyclone started tracking southwards towards Mackay with an arrival time coinciding with high tide, and I thought we'd lost him, but then the cyclone slowed down to 30 minutes behind high tide, an hour behind, two hours behind, then sped up to an hour behind, and it was obvious that when it crossed the coast, a lot of drainage had already occurred and it was going to hit on an outgoing tide, even though still a lot closer than predicted, so we dodged a bullet.

 

Easy to laugh about it now, but I wouldn't think the people in East Mackay who copped knee deep water through their homes would be seeing the funny side.

 

 

[turboplanner]

25,000 people ordered to evacuate the low lying areas of Mackay by midnight.

What was so funny Win?

They evacuated the Green and Red map areas.

 

I located the maps and the tide data and was plotting the status right through the night; I sent you a message offering to send data if you were in a low lying area, but got no reply, which didn't surprise me because my son was caught in the brown zone, and his phone went out early.

 

The Emergency centre were predicting a 2.2 metre storm surge early in the night which put the water a street or so away from his unit.

 

Shortly after, the cyclone started tracking southwards towards Mackay with an arrival time coinciding with high tide, and I thought we'd lost him, but then the cyclone slowed down to 30 minutes behind high tide, an hour behind, two hours behind, then sped up to an hour behind, and it was obvious that when it crossed the coast, a lot of drainage had already occurred and it was going to hit on an outgoing tide, even though still a lot closer than predicted, so we dodged a bullet.

 

Easy to laugh about it now, but I wouldn't think the people in East Mackay who copped knee deep water through their homes would be seeing the funny side.

 

 

[Pearo]

We just got flogged here on Brisbane Northside. I was looking at the radar and it still looked like a cyclone to me. Brisbane ATIS showed 50 knot gusts, I would suggest that 50knots was more sustained than not. I have copped damage to my house and wont really get an understanding of the full extent till tomorrow.. Technically what we copped was the same as a Cat 1 cyclone.

 

Someone posted hear about going to sea in a Cat 4 being a better option than staying in a local anchorage. Seriously the dumbest thing I have ever heard.

 

 

[Litespeed]

Someone posted hear about going to sea in a Cat 4 being a better option than staying in a local anchorage. Seriously the dumbest thing I have ever heard.

Mmmmmmm- If you had actually read my posts and those I later did, then you sure have a strange interpretation. I said the best option when given a long notice of several days, in this case it was quite a big amount of notice. Was get the hell out of dodge can be the best bet on a quality sailboat.

 

I never said go splash about heading into a CAT 4 or any other such nonsense.

 

Not everyone has the luxury of just damning the boat to almost certain destruction, insurance will rarely cover the full losses and for some it is also their home and/or livelyhood and they have their entire lifes savings invested in it. And insurance can deem you carelessly left it to the storm and not pay a cent- it has happened.

 

Leaving to head to a better safe harbour that is far more protected/lower tidal variation/ or a substantial distance inland if a river system is available is a NO Brainer.

 

However unless you are lucky- mangroves will not be bugger all help with any substantial tidal zone and the risk of a large storm surge- many a boat has found itself picked up and perched high and dry after the event and damaged or destroyed. Or stuck fast in the mangroves far from the anchor point and virtually a total loss-because to remove it would cause huge damage to the mangroves- which has happened a lot.

 

The same enhanced safety can be had by heading in the opposite direction of the cyclones track Ie in this case it was go North or head South Easterly with all available speed. Any yacht with adequate power often a mere 20-36hp can do a easy 6knots and a great deal more with sails 24hrs a day and can cover a great distance in the 5-7 days it was obvious what was coming to the general area. That is 720 nautical miles in 5 days or 1008 nautical miles in the week preceding landfall. Under sail with the weather of the last week or so a better estimate with sail can be a easy 1600 nautical miles in 7 days.

 

Once you are away from the expected landfall of the cyclone you can chose to ride it out or go to a more sheltered anchorage. Ships and sailboats have done this for thousands of years and a well designed and sailed sailboat can take the punishment the sea can through at it far more than it can survive been driven onto the rocks. Bar none been driven onto the rocks/shore etc has always been the greatest killer of the seas and storms.

 

If getting easily away from the cyclone track by 720- 1600 nautical miles at least from the main danger is your idea of stupidity then maybe flying is not for you or sailing. That is a very long way from the main thrust of the cyclones power and even down the coast that far it its merely a big storm- just ride it out in the safety of your yacht.

 

How "stupid" do you think the people who just left their boats to fend for themselves feel? Or the unlucky plane owners who figured the tie downs would work rather than fly it a far safer spot far inland?

 

The news is full of pictures of boats and some planes destroyed all by "smart" owners. Bet they are feeling real smug about now.

 

Probably about as smug as those that chose to leave their caravans rather than drive it inland for protection. Ever seen what a cyclone does to a caravan?

 

But what would I know I am "stupid" as must many a salty sailor over thousands of years. So "stupid" that it is a complete dereliction of duty and court martial capital crime in navies around the world not to head for safer waters or a more sheltered bay far away.

 

Bet the "smart" ones felt real smug when hung for the offence in colonial days- assuming they lived after trashing the ship and its crew.

 

I am happy to stay "stupid".

 

It is not like yachts have never been at sea and encountered a cyclone/storm tsunami - happens all the time and well sailed and safe design rarely make it deadly encounter.

 

Some may even be shocked to learn the advice for boats when a tsunami is possible- head to sea will all speed. It is literally the only safe place to be- any ship/boat at anchor near shore will next be inland a far way.

 

 

[nomadpete]

We haven't heard an update from Frank for a while. Hope he came through the storm without damage or loss.

 

This is probably a good time to point out that we can't count on mobile phones or internet when storms hit, if power fails. The pressure of competition has led to most service providers cutting back on battery backup capacity. And on peak call capacity. At best you can expect phones to go down after an hour or so (And congestion until then). Those people who still have a copper connected landline should be ok though as most telephone exchanges still have big batteries and standby gensets.

 

I keep a pair of hand held uhf cb' and and know what channels our local emergency crews use.

 

 

[frank marriott]

No damage from Ayr north.

 

 

[Guest extralite]

 

Looks like a few a/c scrambled to higher ground there at Lismore Airport.

 

 

[Blueadventures]

What was so funny Win?They evacuated the Green and Red map areas.

I located the maps and the tide data and was plotting the status right through the night; I sent you a message offering to send data if you were in a low lying area, but got no reply, which didn't surprise me because my son was caught in the brown zone, and his phone went out early.

 

The Emergency centre were predicting a 2.2 metre storm surge early in the night which put the water a street or so away from his unit.

 

Shortly after, the cyclone started tracking southwards towards Mackay with an arrival time coinciding with high tide, and I thought we'd lost him, but then the cyclone slowed down to 30 minutes behind high tide, an hour behind, two hours behind, then sped up to an hour behind, and it was obvious that when it crossed the coast, a lot of drainage had already occurred and it was going to hit on an outgoing tide, even though still a lot closer than predicted, so we dodged a bullet.

 

Easy to laugh about it now, but I wouldn't think the people in East Mackay who copped knee deep water through their homes would be seeing the funny side.

What was so funny Win?They evacuated the Green and Red map areas.

I located the maps and the tide data and was plotting the status right through the night; I sent you a message offering to send data if you were in a low lying area, but got no reply, which didn't surprise me because my son was caught in the brown zone, and his phone went out early.

 

The Emergency centre were predicting a 2.2 metre storm surge early in the night which put the water a street or so away from his unit.

 

Shortly after, the cyclone started tracking southwards towards Mackay with an arrival time coinciding with high tide, and I thought we'd lost him, but then the cyclone slowed down to 30 minutes behind high tide, an hour behind, two hours behind, then sped up to an hour behind, and it was obvious that when it crossed the coast, a lot of drainage had already occurred and it was going to hit on an outgoing tide, even though still a lot closer than predicted, so we dodged a bullet.

 

Easy to laugh about it now, but I wouldn't think the people in East Mackay who copped knee deep water through their homes would be seeing the funny side.

Hi Turbo I'm in mackay. Spoke to a guy at work and his daughter in Eton had water up to roof; very bad. Like many all over those that faired well and are good people are helping those as quick and best we can. Got to get back to things. Just before midnight on wed I drove out to our airfield and things were ok. A mate went yesterday a fix an issue with his aircraft that i managed a temp fix to stop some wind damage getting worse. I was glad to do that favour for a mate as he has done the same in the past. Cheers mike

 

 

[farri]

We haven't heard an update from Frank for a while. Hope he came through the storm without damage or loss..

Thank you for your concern Pete....Not much wind here so no damage ...I was up there in the Drifter, playing in the Northerly wind, while those poor people, further south, were being battered.

 

Everyone keep in mind, the official end to the Queensland Cyclone season is the end of April.

 

Frank.

 

 

[Yenn]

I still don't know how bad it was at Mackay, Proserpine, Collinsville area, but we were luck here it was a non event, plenty of rain a little bit of wind and now the sun is shining and I can have a warm solar shower.

 

For those commenting on taking a boat to sea. It is definitely safer to weather a storm well out to sea, but not much fun getting out from behind the reef in poor weather conditions.

 

 

[Pearo]

Good luck guys,I also hope all the guys with boats-sailing have gone to sea for safety- nothing more dangerous than a boat at anchor in a cyclone. Best to head out to deep water and ride it out- far safer than in port.

Good luck guys and keep your head down.

 

Mmmmmmm- If you had actually read my posts and those I later did, then you sure have a strange interpretation. I said the best option when given a long notice of several days, in this case it was quite a big amount of notice. Was get the hell out of dodge can be the best bet on a quality sailboat.I never said go splash about heading into a CAT 4 or any other such nonsense.

No offence champ, but in this day an age there is no excuse for putting yourself into a cat 4 cyclone when you are that close to land.. I think you also said put up a stormrsail, which would last all of a few seconds in those conditions. This just goes to show your understanding (or lack) of sailing in those conditions. The best place to be is not at sea. Stop trying to justify you comments, its was utter nonsense in the first place.