Raptor - looks interesting. GA or LSA

[DenisPC9]

I have just come across this one. I don't know if it has popped up here before.

 

Raptor Aircraft Home

 

Hop over to the "Finance" drop down and check the cost schedule. For what it appears to be, it looks mind boggling.

 

At ~1600 kg and 300knot max - it looks GA

 

I do like this one "reversible propeller".

 

It reminded me of the first time I saw a C130 back-up. I was at Rabaul Airport in the early 1970s when a Herc came in and wanting to get the right parking spot (and impressing the plonkers) he reversed the props and backed up to where he wanted to offload and reload.

 

It was all extremely impressive.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

If you were going to introduce a new product of just about any type you could name from vehicle to furniture, there are certain well known and proven industry procedures you follow,

 

Raptor are way off the mark.

 

They are building the entire craft, including all of it's unknown parameters, as a complete unit and expect to roll it out the door in 2016. Wait, what ....?

 

They built a model, an aerodynamicist told them it would have a serious issue, they flew it, the model had that exact issue, they shrugged it off and guessed a fix (a fix, not a redesign), continued with the full sized craft without testing the fix on the model.

 

Instead of building a full sized bare bones prototype, throwing a Lycoming/Continental in it and testing, they are building the complete aircraft out of the blocks.

 

By complete that includes a new concept Audi V6 turbo diesel, pressurised cabin, air conditioning, fully trimmed, etc etc without knowing that it's even going to fly reasonably.

 

It's enough just to build a plane, it's another thing to introduce a new power unit concept, but trying to do it all in one hit including pressurised cabin? I don't think so.

 

But what gets me most is the obscene amount of pedantic bespoke parts being used, rarely have I seen such stupidity for what is slated to be a production item. The project management is completely and utterly clueless in this regard, it will blow out cost and delivery time, as is already showing.

 

That they are living in La La Land is not my business, hell good on them for having a go, I don't have issue with that, the issue is the moment they put their hands out for deposit money from prospective purchasers is the damage they are doing to aviation and to other manufacturers who have real product for sale when they clearly will not succeed with the current package offered, and certainly not within an acceptable time frame as evidenced on their to date progress.

 

 

[DenisPC9]

If you were going to introduce a new product of just about any type you could name from vehicle to furniture, there are certain well known and proven industry procedures you follow,Raptor are way off the mark.

 

They are building the entire craft, including all of it's unknown parameters, as a complete unit and expect to roll it out the door in 2016. Wait, what ....?....s.

Thanks, its good to get the views of those who make their living at the heart of the industry.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

Peter is working through the build fairly methodically, every problem gets sorted as it goes, he's got over $130M of orders on the books

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

This has the hallmarks of the Eclipse Jet's first attempt, which turned out to be fraus, I understand. Still, for a USD$2K deposit, may be worth a punt as one would have to wait past 1100 airframes to be built - which would give enough lead time for the early adopters to work out the snags of the design, engine, etc.

 

1100 orders ahead (if true) gets me wondering if I put a deposit down, my airframe would be ready before I had to hang up the headsets...

 

 

[bexrbetter]

1100 orders ahead (if true) gets me wondering if I put a deposit down, my airframe would be ready before I had to hang up the headsets...

There's not 1100 orders, more likely 50 tops. I would say the others are of crowdfunding mind, and don't forget they can take back $1800 any time they want through the Escrow. Do I ever wish there was that many real purchases around with the direction I'm headed in at the moment.

 

I read one post last year, when they believed they would be producing by last year, telling a guy who would have been around ticket 500 at the time that he would be waiting 4 years. Any one here who has been involved in production can get a gist of what it would take to get production up to 2 per week AFTER they have actually finalised the actual pre-production plane first. 2019 would be there first full production year, and only if everything works out from here on IMO.

 

These guy's targets can not be bought to reality without enormous expansion of resources, far beyond the current setup of factory and staff, and of course it's going to cost a lot of money that has to be returned. I'm going through exactly that right now, it's an area where the choice of high end composites bites you in the azz.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

Peter has been very transparent through out the development of the prototype about the issues he's faced and how he is going to grow the business both with staff and investors.

 

At anyone time there are a dozen startups trying to build planes, at least Peter understands how to market the Raptor.

 

 

[onetrack]

From the 'net (my highlighting) .....

 

What happens when Peter Muller, a long-time Silicon Valley software engineer, with no prior airplane design experience, attempts to design one?One that will improve and increase size, comfort, and features, as well as reduce cost.

By the way, Peter Muller is working on his airplane on the side, outside of his regular job.

Yep, sounds like the recipe for total and complete success, without a doubt!

 

 

[flyvulcan]

I had dinner with Peter at Oshkosh this year. He is a clever guy who is driven to make this venture a success. He has a very skilled canard aircraft designer and fabricator (Jeff Kerlo) on his team. I suspect that the airframe will likely work, but the Audi engine is a potential risk. Still, he is doing something innovative and (most) of his deposit holders bear no risk as their deposits are refundable. He does indeed have over 1000 orders.

 

He is being 100% transparent with his development program, as you can see from his vlog videos. He covers the things that work, as well as the mistakes. Yes, he’s running behind schedule by a fair way but at least deposit holders can see where he is up to. If they lose interest or get pee’d off by delays, they can always pull their deposit. However, as of my dinner with him, I recall that he may have only lost one deposit and that person simply needed his money back.

 

It’s an ambitious program that he has undertaken and he is working through it methodically, albeit slower than he would like and slower than he had planned. However, he is getting there and that is important.

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

He's a software guy - he'll be used to projects taking a lot longer than planned with many unforeseen challenges..

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

From the 'net (my highlighting) .....Yep, sounds like the recipe for total and complete success, without a doubt!

I don't know Peter from a bar of soap, but the day job that the net refers to may not be a permie cor contract development role - it may be running a company and that he has the staff required to get the Raptor off the ground... Would be a bit like saying whoever runs google these days that he is working on flying or autonomous cars outside his day job...

 

The odds are against him, but isn't it the human spirit that often defies the odds? He may well fail, but the slither of chance he may succeed is worth celebrating. After all, if we look at the stats, the odds of success of starting a small business don't look great at all, but people do and their businesses thrive.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

I had dinner with Peter at Oshkosh this year. He is a clever guy who is driven to make this venture a success.

No one is questioning his integrity or purpose, but that has nothing to do with facts.

 

I suspect that the airframe will likely work, but the Audi engine is a potential risk.

The crux of it IMO. They stated that an aerodynamicist said the model would not fly well, and it would do X and Y, they flew the model, it flew badly and did X and Y as predicted. They guessed some fixes and went straight to building the actual craft implementing the guessed fixes.

 

Now if that was me I would build the simplest, fastest, cheapest option to get the thing flying to investigate what's going to need fixing. I would do the molds, build one from fiberglass, not carbon, as weight for the mule isn't an issue and the fiberglass is easier to modify later, throw a used Lycoming on and go sort out the plane through a test regime (got a plane for display purposes later as well).

 

I would also offer a base model, eg; non-pressurised, no thrills Lycoming/Conti adaptable, which would be first out of the blocks.

 

But no, rather than follow what is logical methods giving yourself room to go back a step or 2, they are going to build the entire plane as presented to a client first up with all the trimmings, pressurised ability, air conditioning, sunvisors, fox tail on the ariel, and chromed grease nipples.

 

Making such peripheral items as sunvisors at this stage of development, just one of many examples, is not only a costly and useless waste of time, but goes towards the incredibly naive thought process that this plane will fly and perform perfectly straight out of the blocks.

 

Add to that, they are going to install an unknown, not to mention already highly modified by their own hands, automotive conversion. A 220(?)hp diesel with massive TV's running through a belt drive, good luck with that as a stand alone issue from the whole package.

 

. Still, he is doing something innovative and (most) of his deposit holders bear no risk as their deposits are refundable. If they lose interest or get pee’d off by delays, they can always pull their deposit.

This.

 

He is presenting a craft that likely will not fly in it's offered configuration, and whatever form, not for a very long time yet.

 

My issue is simply that in the meantime he is taking deposits based in faith and that is hurting manufacturers with real product on offer today. Not to mention the people who will be pee'd off when if falls through and go buy a Porsche or something leaving aircraft behind for good.

 

That people can take there deposits back is not a valid point, if anything it increases the problem.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

He may well fail, but the slither of chance he may succeed is worth celebrating.

I can verify my support for people and their projects - until the day they ask for money, then I balance the risks to those people or others.

 

 

[jetjr]

Maybe it says a fair bit about aviation and where interested people are.

 

I reckon you're right that many will grow tired and buys a sports car but unlikely the same people are looking at buying a ultralight. possibly wont bother getting deposits back.

 

Other high dollar slick models seem to sell well too.

 

He did discuss problems and reasons behind engine choices in recent open Q and A videos

 

Im learning a bit just watching how its made.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

Maybe it says a fair bit about aviation and where interested people are.

Yes that's interesting.

 

While the 1000 orders isn't, Velocity have taken 30 years to sell 500 similar craft for example, that plenty of people are supporting the project concept is of interest and shouldn't be denied, apparently this aircraft type appeals to many.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

the Raptor has been designed around being the builder assist model, that in itself is a bit of an innovation that other kit builders don't have.

 

 

[onetrack]

He may well fail, but the slither of chance he may succeed is worth celebrating.

That's the best malapropism I've heard this year. I guess you really meant to write "sliver".

 

I reckon a lot of people could eventually end up saying this Muller bloke slithers, rather than walks upright on legs.

 

 

[Birdseye]

My first impression on reading about it was "pie in the sky"....and for 130k? Unlikely. I'd have placed more faith in DeLorean.

 

 

[fly_tornado]

he's only paying US$2k for the engine cores, that's leaving him a lot of wiggle room for the rest of the build

 

 

[Birdseye]

Hopefully this slithering and wiggling isn't prophetic. Its hard for a cynic like me to see the good side.

 

 

[phonetic]

Automotive Technology internal combustion engines are up to the up to the minute, unlike todays GA engines circa 1940s

 

 

[bexrbetter]

Automotive Technology internal combustion engines are up to the up to the minute, unlike todays GA engines circa 1940s

Undeniably true, and I am a campaigned for auto conversions, but the weight and simplicity of even an underperforming GA engine can not be denied.

 

Auto engines are still a heavy and not so simple (water cooling) packaging problem. But they are getting smaller and lighter with every generation, the Honda/Viking 170HP unit is a true competitor, problem is we are still waiting for that true 80 to 100HP competitor to come along.