This should really be on the Gripes thread. .

[APenNameAndThatA]

Each time I used the base of good healthy sheep to breed the numbers back up; that's what you are supposed to do.

I just noticed you congratulating yourself for having a base of sheep to breed from. If you budgeted for no more lost growing seasons but had another lost growing season, you would have had to choose between having hungry sheep to breed from, or no sheep to breed from. Geddit? If you had budgeted for a successive lost growing season, and not had one, you would have lost excessive income. When you look at the grass in September, do you budget for three more lost growing seasons? No? Then you failed to budget for the loss of growing seasons that the people you are contemptuous of failed to budget for. The people you are contemptuous off are broke, otherwise, they would have just gone out and shot the stock months or years ago. If you had/do repeatedly destock more aggressively than your peers, you would have gone broke long ago.

 

I sometimes wonder how much luck had to do with my good fortune in life, and how much was due to being smart and working hard. IMHO, the difference between you and those you are contemptuous of is as much a product of luck and circumstances as a matter of superiority. In the past, I could not understand why people were so rude about the things you have said. Well, now I'm beginning to understand.

 

 

[APenNameAndThatA]

We are almost to the end of the first quarter of the 21st Century. We have the Cyberspace, and in there lie all the weather facts and figures for at least 175 years. Plus we can go to State libraries to read the journals of Europeans in Australia from 1788 to find out about the weather.I'm sure that an analysis of all that data will show that there is a regular cycle of about 10 years or so where the weather swings from drought to flooding rain. As Turbo says, a competent farm manager will know about that cycle, and make long term plans to profit from that knowledge. The only way to lose by doing that is if the drought fails to eventuate after you have sold off stock.

 

There is much wisdom in the saying, "Gather ye rosebuds whilst ye may".

Well the bible says that you should save up during the seven good years for the seven lean years, so it goes back longer than ye olde English.

As for the idea that you could predict drought based on the pattern of past weather, well, that idea is about as sensible as rime smog.

 

 

[APenNameAndThatA]

You've miscalculated your winds, Nev, and drifted off track.I agree that a subsistence existence would not support the country's present and projected population. The point I am making is that 10,000 years' of weather observations trumps 230 years'. I'm sure that Aborigines have observed longer cycles of drought and flood. Here are the seasons as described by the D'harawal people of the areas south and southwest of Botany Bay D'harawal calendar - Indigenous Weather Knowledge - Bureau of Meteorology

 

Check the bottom of this page for the 11- 12 year cycle

 

Untitled

It says "approximately 11-12 year cycle". Not good enough for planning. Sheesh. I wonder if it was related to the El Nino cycle? (Quick check - nope - 3 to 7 years.)

 

 

[NT5224]

Hi folks

 

Interesting discussion here.

 

I have to agree that understanding weather and land productivity cycles are key to successful production. However, the point has been made that prices at the farm gate have been driven increasingly lower in markets monopolised by one or two major players. I reckon this latest 'drought' down south is as much an economic creation as a natural phenomena. The same trendy urbanistas wringing their hands and wailing at the treatment of emaciated stock have come to expect milk from our dairies at unsustainable prices.

 

Here in the north we are to some extent insulated from the current problems down south, not only because we get regular rainfall, but because we for the most part export to markets where pricing is more competitive. I believe that, if we want to protect the sustainability of our agriculture, food production and secure our rural industries (which are among this nations' greatest productive resources), we should forget about charity, handouts, and clips of skinny sheep on You Tube. We need to expect to pay fair prices at the farm gate, and care less about the profits of the shareholders in big corporates. We need people working on the land, understanding it, and knowing how to conserve it.

 

Oh, and in my mind there is little doubt that weather patterns are changing and becoming less predictable. Here in the Top End we understand climatic variation: Wet Season and Dry Season! But in the last ten years this picture has become increasingly mixed. For example just Saturday (end of July) we had a heavy rain shower. What's that about? So Im not sure to what extent the old knowledges or rules apply. Speaking to an indigenous mate of mine this morning he was telling me that some species of bird that's migration to the Top End traditionally signals the onset of the wet has just turned up. He was scratching his head and saying it was really odd, arriving three months early. We are heading into uncharted territory. I'm just glad Im not a beef grower with a big mortgage in inland NSW. My sympathies to them and their families.

 

Alan

 

 

[old man emu]

IMHO,

It exists?????

 

 

[Yenn]

A lot of our agricultural country is marginal at best and it only takes a drought to make it uneconomic, especially with prices being controlled by big business.

 

Even in good agricultural land there is the demands of miners, to dig it up and ruin it. Or if that doesn't work the government wants to bury it under water in a dam to supply either irrigation water or water for the cities.

 

Some of the best land is bought up by overseas agribusiness. I assume they are guaranteeing a supply to their parent country.

 

With our pollies now talking of a population of 50 million, there is going to be big pressure on producing more food from less area, that means more water for irrigation and more and more fertilisers being spread on the land. that is land which is deteriorating and the exces fertiliser turns it into just a support for the plant roots and we are producing our food chemically.

 

We need to make agriculture more economicly viable so that the land can be looked after as it used to be and it is no good letting the bureaucrats write rules to do that as they have no idea what to do.

 

 

[turboplanner]

On the other hand, you just gave yourself credit for predicting when the rain would come, and how good it would be. But what would have happened if next year's rain had not come? You would have either sold off the rest of your stock just as the rain had come and lost tens of thousands of dollars, or sold off some of your stock lust before the rain came and lost half as much money, or held onto a small amount of stock too long.

Social media posts are hopeless for discussing complex issues; people seem to hang on to a single word or sentence and assume it’s a comprehensive statement and it never is. I don’t predict the rain, no one can predict the rainfall accurately because there are too many variables.

 

I assess the likely carrying capacity and make a judgement for the worst. If rains come and the grass grows sufficiently I allow the stock to breed, if not I can feed the small core flock for years if necessary.

 

You can’t predict but you can manage.

 

Stated differently, when you look at how much grass you have in September, how many bad years do you budget for? Do you sell enough stock to account for the season you just lost, or do you sell enough stock for the loss of two growing seasons?

If you gamble like that you lose, having to eventually sell underweight stock at fire sale prices.

There's usually quite a wide shoulder for decision making; as soon as you see the signs and the stock start to lose condition you need to either agist or de-stock.

 

Furthermore, some areas have more distinct, and predictable growing periods than others.

Correct; quite often a neighbouring district requires different management, different stock or different breed.

 

As a city person living in the country, you probably don't understand that.

I'm a country person who went to the City.

 

 

[turboplanner]

I just noticed you congratulating yourself for having a base of sheep to breed from. If you budgeted for no more lost growing seasons but had another lost growing season, you would have had to choose between having hungry sheep to breed from, or no sheep to breed from. Geddit? If you had budgeted for a successive lost growing season, and not had one, you would have lost excessive income. When you look at the grass in September, do you budget for three more lost growing seasons? No? Then you failed to budget for the loss of growing seasons that the people you are contemptuous of failed to budget for. The people you are contemptuous off are broke, otherwise, they would have just gone out and shot the stock months or years ago. If you had/do repeatedly destock more aggressively than your peers, you would have gone broke long ago.I sometimes wonder how much luck had to do with my good fortune in life, and how much was due to being smart and working hard. IMHO, the difference between you and those you are contemptuous of is as much a product of luck and circumstances as a matter of superiority. In the past, I could not understand why people were so rude about the things you have said. Well, now I'm beginning to understand.

I'm not contemptuous of them, some of them are my relatives; I'm just pointing out rural facts that never seem to come to the surface when the television cameras start rolling on dying sheep.

As for your theoretical calculations, there are a lot more variables than that.

 

 

[red750]

Sorry I opened this can of worms on an aviation forum.

 

 

[APenNameAndThatA]

I'm not contemptuous of them, some of them are my relatives; I'm just pointing out rural facts that never seem to come to the surface when the television cameras start rolling on dying sheep.As for your theoretical calculations, there are a lot more variables than that.

So, "negligent" with the greatest of respect? Huh? "Negligent" is the word I lept on. My point is simple. You said you (always, it seems) kept a core of stock for breeding. Well, if luck went against you, you would have had to either a) go to zero stock unnecessarily (which is a disaster for finances, and you lose your genetics), sell off stock which were too thin, or wait longer and shoot them. The fact that none of those things happened to you is from a combination of good management and luck.

 

Also, can you clarify: if you look at the grass every September, what are you doing in the city?

 

 

[turboplanner]

So, "negligent" with the greatest of respect? Huh? "Negligent" is the word I lept on. My point is simple. You said you (always, it seems) kept a core of stock for breeding. Well, if luck went against you, you would have had to either a) go to zero stock unnecessarily (which is a disaster for finances, and you lose your genetics), sell off stock which were too thin, or wait longer and shoot them. The fact that none of those things happened to you is from a combination of good management and luck. Also, can you clarify: if you look at the grass every September, what are you doing in the city?

I gave two examples.

Prior to that I went through a straight 11 years of dry conditions by agisting the sheep and letting them breed; that’s another way to get through droughts.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

Well the bible says that you should save up during the seven good years for the seven lean years, .

Nah, just spend up big for the 7 years, and if it goes sour you can just eat your children.

 

Deuteronomy 28:53 And thou shalt eat the fruit of thine own body, the flesh of thy sons and of thy daughters, whom Jehovah thy God hath given thee, in the siege and in the distress wherewith thine enemies shall distress thee.

 

 

[facthunter]

God advice there.. Nev

 

 

[jetjr]

Where do you agist sheep when most of the state is in similar situation? Do you reckon theres paddocks just sitting there waiting or would their owners be using them or perhaps grazed out by millions of starving wildlife.

 

How do you pay to get them there and presumably back?

 

At what point do you do it? Ship livestock around much and you will be broke in even a moderate year.

 

Six months ago some areas were sitting with low but close to median rainfall and usually get an autumn break. Didn't happen.

 

Something very wrong with your simplification on breeding and management looking at grass height and breeding or not.

 

It isn't an annual exercise and if your not looking longer term you had better stick to something else.

 

Diligent bank shareholders should be excited with all the equity their companies are developing in rural Australia right now.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

My second cousin, son of my first cousin, and a farmer, has written this poem to illustrate the conditions here.The bank accounts are empty and the paddocks all quite bare,

 

.

Obviously not true for all, but driving around in the country a lot previously while working on the drilling rig, hard not to notice the new cars, the large new'ish houses and the underworked, new million dollar massive tractors in the sheds. And the famer would drop by the rig and say hello in his brand new, full spec Landcruiser telling you how bad things were ...

 

Clearly drought hits many farmers badly, I'm not disparaging that, but so does over commiting yourself with ridiculous loans from the bank.

 

 

[turboplanner]

Where do you agist sheep when most of the state is in similar situation? Do you reckon theres paddocks just sitting there waiting or would their owners be using them or perhaps grazed out by millions of starving wildlife.

We seem to have gone from learning to fly and maintain an aircraft by correspondence to agribusiness by correspondence, but I'll try to answer your questions.

From what I have found, the current drought extends in a north-south band from central/west Queensland down to the Riverina. So there are hundreds of thousand of square kilometres with the potential.

 

It's a matter of hitting the phones or getting a National stock agent like Elders to arrange the whole package for you including transport.

 

The guys I know in the Riverina moved their stock to the Western District of Victoria about six months ago.

 

How do you pay to get them there and presumably back?

Once you have enough cattle or sheep to fill a B Double, the availability of transport, time to deliver, and costs are reasonable by comparison with allowing your herd/flock to be wiped out

 

At what point do you do it? Ship livestock around much and you will be broke in even a moderate year.

At the point where there is a risk of losing your stock; sometimes they can be on agistment for year or two, but more often they are fattened on the agistment property then sold when the market rises as others want to restock their properties.

 

Six months ago some areas were sitting with low but close to median rainfall and usually get an autumn break. Didn't happen.Something very wrong with your simplification on breeding and management looking at grass height and breeding or not.

It isn't an annual exercise and if your not looking longer term you had better stick to something else.

I'm not the one on TV blaming the Government; I did say social media is not a good place to discuss complex issues.

 

 

[Geoff13]

I know this is very simplistic, but that is the sort of person I am.

 

I see no difference between any of the 4 following scenarios.

 

1. People living on the land suffering from the longest drought in living memory asking for help to feed their stock.

 

2. People who choose to live in North Queensland who get hit by a Cat5 cyclone like Yasi asking for help to rebuild a tourism industry or their Banana crops.

 

3. People who live in the South East corner of Qld who all live on natural river flood plains asking for help when their houses and businesses get flooded out.

 

4. People who live in Mountainous areas of Vic and NSW who ask for help when the inevitable bush fire goes through their regions.

 

I have been lucky in my lifetime through different scenarios to be able to help in all of the above situations.

 

My position in the Military allowed me to be involved after Ash Wednesday.

 

As a truckie I was the first commercial vehicle into Mission Beach after Yasi with a much needed Generator to provide power to the Evacuation Centre.

 

In the Brisbane floods of 1974 my parents were stranded in Brisbane trying to buy feed whilst my 12 year old sister and my 14 year old self were feeding starving stock in the longyard in Western Qld.

 

In 2011 I was in Brissy and delivered a dozen generators and pumps to where they were needed.

 

I have been privileged to participate in 3 Hay runs now, I had to miss one because business at the time was struggling and needed my time.

 

What I have found in all cases were people who needed help. Yes I understand that in many cases they could have avoided the dire consequences of some of their decisions.

 

But at the end of the day they just needed help and thank whomever you choose to pray to in all cases there was someone there in a position to offer that help.

 

I well understand that some people could do better, but I also understand that HOPE can make you try when you should give up.

 

I have lived through the worst phone call that I believe anyone could ever receive, the one telling me that both my parents had committed suicide.

 

I think the only worse possibility than that is if it was one of my children.

 

When I deliver Hay to a farm I do not ask myself if the farmer is a good manager I only ask that I can bring enough hope to the farmers that another little boy or girl never receives a call like I did on that day.

 

If I can give a farmer, or a flooded businessman, or a bloke in the Dandenong Ranges enough hope to get up tomorrow morning and go on then to be honest

 

I DON'T GIVE A FLYING F*CK what got him in the position I just care that tomorrow a little boy has a dad because someone somewhere cared enough to do something to help and maybe bring some HOPE.

 

 

[Geoff13]

As for farmers not helping themselves, I offer you the following example.

 

18 months ago on a Hay Run I delivered a B/Double of hay to a farm near Muttaburra.

 

Now this farmer had 30,000acres they could in good seasons carry 15000 head.

 

In anticipation of the drought she had purchased a 130,000 acre property 300 klms away that was almost all Mulga scrub.

 

Now people in the know will tell you Mulga will keep your stock alive.

 

Now this Lady moved 5,000 head to the Mulga property at huge expense I might add not to mention the cost of the property.

 

She then sold 8,500 head at bottom dollar prices because everyone who had some idea of best practice could see what was coming.

 

So lets look at this 15,000 head down to 5000 of starvation rations at the mulga farm and 1500 of the best breeding stock at home being hand fed.

 

18 months later instead of rain she gets a Premier sitting in an office in Brisbane saying she can no longer clear her farm.

 

That means she has 5000 head on the Mulga property that where surviving now starving to death because she can now no longer push over Mulga scrub to feed them.

 

This is a totally in flexible position and now the property that she bought to drought proof her farm has become a noose around her neck.

 

So lets not for a second put all the blame on the farmers.

 

 

[jetjr]

97% of nsw is drought declared, this takes a serious lack of rain not just a little dry spell

 

The scale of the problem prevents all the simplistic solutions offered from working

 

People have sold moved and shot stock already, whats left are those which might bring income for the next few years.

 

If they die and theres no income for several years, these people and the thousands of businesses they support could end up welfare of some sort

 

Livestock are the visual focus but winter cropping in some areas has missed a start on the back of a few tough years too.

 

A very small few farmers are wealthy enough to operate as indicated here, id suggest those with no debt or a farm gifted might.

 

See a whole lot more of under used million dollar assetts around cities.

 

 

[Old Koreelah]

Where do you agist sheep when most of the state is in similar situation?...

Our extensive network of Travelling Stock Routes were once the solution for many, but governments have neglected this national resource; many have been sold off.

 

 

[Thruster88]

My observation is that TSRs are rarely used by local farmers ,mostly the big guys that own 10000 plus head of cattle

 

 

[turboplanner]

I know this is very simplistic, but that is the sort of person I am.I see no difference between any of the 4 following scenarios.

 

1. People living on the land suffering from the longest drought in living memory asking for help to feed their stock.

 

2. People who choose to live in North Queensland who get hit by a Cat5 cyclone like Yasi asking for help to rebuild a tourism industry or their Banana crops.

 

3. People who live in the South East corner of Qld who all live on natural river flood plains asking for help when their houses and businesses get flooded out.

 

4. People who live in Mountainous areas of Vic and NSW who ask for help when the inevitable bush fire goes through their regions.

 

I have been lucky in my lifetime through different scenarios to be able to help in all of the above situations.

 

My position in the Military allowed me to be involved after Ash Wednesday.

 

As a truckie I was the first commercial vehicle into Mission Beach after Yasi with a much needed Generator to provide power to the Evacuation Centre.

 

In the Brisbane floods of 1974 my parents were stranded in Brisbane trying to buy feed whilst my 12 year old sister and my 14 year old self were feeding starving stock in the longyard in Western Qld.

 

In 2011 I was in Brissy and delivered a dozen generators and pumps to where they were needed.

 

I have been privileged to participate in 3 Hay runs now, I had to miss one because business at the time was struggling and needed my time.

 

What I have found in all cases were people who needed help. Yes I understand that in many cases they could have avoided the dire consequences of some of their decisions.

 

But at the end of the day they just needed help and thank whomever you choose to pray to in all cases there was someone there in a position to offer that help.

 

I well understand that some people could do better, but I also understand that HOPE can make you try when you should give up.

 

I have lived through the worst phone call that I believe anyone could ever receive, the one telling me that both my parents had committed suicide.

 

I think the only worse possibility than that is if it was one of my children.

 

When I deliver Hay to a farm I do not ask myself if the farmer is a good manager I only ask that I can bring enough hope to the farmers that another little boy or girl never receives a call like I did on that day.

 

If I can give a farmer, or a flooded businessman, or a bloke in the Dandenong Ranges enough hope to get up tomorrow morning and go on then to be honest

 

I DON'T GIVE A FLYING F*CK what got him in the position I just care that tomorrow a little boy has a dad because someone somewhere cared enough to do something to help and maybe bring some HOPE.

I can sympathise with this line of thought; my uncle sold his sheep farm and for the next 30 years used that money to buy and sell cattle, which he kept on agistment. He would buy when others were selling and sell when others were buying, and bought a beautiful home in Adelaide, but it all came to an end, when he sold a big lot of cattle to a buyer in Tasmania, and the deal went sour. He drove his ute into a tree and that was the end of that.

As a kid, it was my job, in helping people who had lost their properties, to drag the machinery out into the front paddock for the clearing sale, clean the house out etc.My grandfather drove a lot of hard lessons into me that time, and I still remember; "Never borrow money","if you kill a sheep", "sell the sheep skin", "if you go out to check the troughs, look at the condition of the sheep, look at the pasture condition" etc.

 

 

[jetjr]

I would be interested to know a big picture of current rural equity now vs 40-50 yrs ago

 

Suggest lenders have a much tighter grip on farms and infrastructure now than then.

 

When things are tight is when these costs really become apparent.

 

 

[Old Koreelah]

My observation is that TSRs are rarely used by local farmers ,mostly the big guys that own 10000 plus head of cattle

We tend to see little blokes with a few hundred head, a truck for dogs, horses and camping.

The neglect of TSRs has been a godsend for some endangered species, which have been wiped out across most of their former ranger.

 

 

[turboplanner]

As for farmers not helping themselves, I offer you the following example.18 months ago on a Hay Run I delivered a B/Double of hay to a farm near Muttaburra.

 

Now this farmer had 30,000acres they could in good seasons carry 15000 head.

 

In anticipation of the drought she had purchased a 130,000 acre property 300 klms away that was almost all Mulga scrub.

 

Now people in the know will tell you Mulga will keep your stock alive.

 

Now this Lady moved 5,000 head to the Mulga property at huge expense I might add not to mention the cost of the property.

 

She then sold 8,500 head at bottom dollar prices because everyone who had some idea of best practice could see what was coming.

 

So lets look at this 15,000 head down to 5000 of starvation rations at the mulga farm and 1500 of the best breeding stock at home being hand fed.

 

18 months later instead of rain she gets a Premier sitting in an office in Brisbane saying she can no longer clear her farm.

 

That means she has 5000 head on the Mulga property that where surviving now starving to death because she can now no longer push over Mulga scrub to feed them.

 

This is a totally in flexible position and now the property that she bought to drought proof her farm has become a noose around her neck.

 

So lets not for a second put all the blame on the farmers.

Did you realise that at MLA sales data for December 2016 in Victoria, Medium Steers, she could have sold the 13,500 cattle for about $19.97 million?

 

Transport cost to Wodonga would have been around 15% of that.

 

If she had used the Animal Husbandry model most graziers use, decision time for the Queensland season was probably March/April, and she may well have got those prices from Queensland saleyards.

 

That would have eliminated the need for the 130,000 Mulga property.

 

The problem she has with that property is not just with the Qld Premier; going back a few years, landowners in northern NSW and western Queensland were de-foresting at a greater rate than the Amazon basin, and satellites are now tasked to scan those areas regularly, I believe by the Federal Government. One NSW property owner was fined $700,000.00, and in Queensland there is an issue with sedimentation of the Great Barrier Reef, so dozing over trees is going down a dark lane towards more problems.

 

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