Upturn in GA Learning to fly

[Geoff_H]

I have had a report that there has been a large upturn in the demand for GA pilots licence. Has anyone else heard this? I suppose as the airlines are having a demand. Personally I expect pilotless aircraft in around 20 years I wonder if an airlines job has so much future.

 

 

[kasper]

Only 20yrs left for pilot?

 

Woo hoo! Time to have a mid life crisi and become a big bus driver through to retirement ;-)

 

 

[Geoff_H]

I expect bus drivers employment will be o lot less than 20 years. Bus and truck drivers are the source of money making driverless cars. Airline pilots are only there to make frightened passengers feel safe lol

 

 

[Roundsounds]

I expect bus drivers employment will be o lot less than 20 years. Bus and truck drivers are the source of money making driverless cars. Airline pilots are only there to make frightened passengers feel safe lol

You’ve obviously got no idea how large aircraft operate or taking the pi$$!

 

 

[kgwilson]

Most passenger aircraft can land themselves using Autoland. The Hawker Siddeley Trident was the first to use automated landings back in 1965. There are plenty of pilotless aircraft around but while the technology exists, it is the paying public that has the final say in whether an aircraft needs a pilot or not. For most of a flight a passenger jet flies itself on autopliot which is switched on by the pilots not long after takeoff. While most modern aircraft have Autoland it is not used very often, apparently only about 3% of the time. It will need a paradigm shift for people to accept a pilotless passenger aircraft.

 

 

[Roundsounds]

Most passenger aircraft can land themselves using Autoland. The Hawker Siddeley Trident was the first to use automated landings back in 1965. There are plenty of pilotless aircraft around but while the technology exists, it is the paying public that has the final say in whether an aircraft needs a pilot or not. For most of a flight a passenger jet flies itself on autopliot which is switched on by the pilots not long after takeoff. While most modern aircraft have Autoland it is not used very often, apparently only about 3% of the time. It will need a paradigm shift for people to accept a pilotless passenger aircraft.

Would you be surprised to learn that a significant part of recurrent training for airline pilots revolves around what to do when all of the flash automation doesn’t do as expected or it hasn’t been developed to deal with a huge range of issues. There is automation of takeoffs, engine failures, unreliable airspeed indications, passenger medical emergencies, fuel leaks or imbalance and many other potential issues. There is no way there will be pilotless passenger aircraft within our lifetimes.

 

 

[kgwilson]

All of those things can be dealt with with autonomous systems. It is the acceptance by the travelling public that is the big issue. If all of the multiple redundant systems fail on a modern fly by wire jet passenger aircraft it will crash regardless of how good the pilots are.

 

 

[Roundsounds]

All of those things can be dealt with with autonomous systems. It is the acceptance by the travelling public that is the big issue. If all of the multiple redundant systems fail on a modern fly by wire jet passenger aircraft it will crash regardless of how good the pilots are.

You really don’t have much of an idea of large aircraft systems or operating procedures. The pilots remain the final defence in the case of many systems failures, how can automation deal with a failure of an automated system?. The likelyhood of sufficient Flight control systems failures to render the aircraft uncontrollable is less than the wings of your average bug smasher falling off spontaneously in cruise.

 

 

[kgwilson]

If all of the flight management systems fail in a fly by wire aircraft, the pilots are superfluous so the aircraft will crash. There are no mechanical linkages between the pilot and the control surfaces or power management. End of story.

 

 

[Roundsounds]

If all of the flight management systems fail in a fly by wire aircraft, the pilots are superfluous so the aircraft will crash. There are no mechanical linkages between the pilot and the control surfaces or power management. End of story.

Flight Management Systems have zero to do with flight control systems. Maybe you should educate yourself before making such sweeping statements.

By the way, I teach aircraft systems and operating procedures for a living.

 

 

[Geoff_H]

I worked in super reliable control systems. The first 4 Airbus crashes were a result pilots overriding the control systems. Now Airbus have many actions that are cannot override. Accidents in Airbus aircraft are very rare. When we design superstars control systems we look at the reliability of each individual "control system" usually ifr something is too hot we measure with 2 to 4 temperature devices and use 1 to 4 devices to regulate the temperature. A solenoid may have been tested and failed 1 in every 10,000 operations. We multiply all systems out to get a probability of failure that the systems cannot control . For human travel these systems have to be greater than 1 in a million hours. Why is this relavent? When the control device is a human, the probability is 1 in 2! With excellent training, like I am sure that you provide, it is much better, but no where near the safety figure offered by multiple redundant control systems. I have now retired but 45 years in the control industry have seen me not wanting people's jobs taken by control systems. I don't think that we as humans are going to cope with a lack of purpose . Unfortunately the economics of peopleless machines will win out when big business are just after profits. Who would ever the banks would be like they are today because of automation.

 

 

[Geoff_H]

I wish that I had never made the throwaway comment about the possible lack of need lot pilots in the future. I was seriously trying to find out if there was a genuine upturn in people wanting a ppl. A friend of mine was asked to buy an aircraft and put it on line to make money. Basis of the request was that he could expect 400 hours per year of hiring. Any comments

 

 

[APenNameAndThatA]

I wish that I had never made the throwaway comment about the possible lack of need lot pilots in the future. I was seriously trying to find out if there was a genuine upturn in people wanting a ppl. A friend of mine was asked to buy an aircraft and put it on line to make money. Basis of the request was that he could expect 400 hours per year of hiring. Any comments

I’m pretty sure that if there was any money in it, the asker would have just done it themself.