Ethiopian 737-800 Max crash - No survivors

[Garfly]

(Suggest skipping the elementary stuff and starting around 08:30)

 

 

 

 

 

[fly_tornado]

its getting worse for boeing

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane/u-s-lawmaker-seeks-boeing-whistleblowers-some-max-737-orders-in-jeopardy-idUSKCN1R30L1

 

 

[IBob]

Forty seconds or you're gone..................

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/boeing-simulation-error.html

 

 

[red750]

Apparently another one in the States, but the crew kept it under control for an emergency landing. I thought they had all been grounded.

 

 

[Downunder]

Forty seconds or you're gone..................

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/boeing-simulation-error.html

Quote: Before the Lion Air crash, Boeing and regulators agreed that pilots didn’t need to be alerted to the new system, and training was minimal.

 

A number of statements in that article I struggle to get my head around. The swiss cheese effect and no one picked out any one of the faults ..... 

 

 

[derekliston]

Apparently another one in the States, but the crew kept it under control for an emergency landing. I thought they had all been grounded.

So did I, tongue in cheek though, at least the media didn’t call it a Cessna but they might have the model wrong!

 

 

[kgwilson]

So did I, tongue in cheek though, at least the media didn’t call it a Cessna but they might have the model wrong!

It was an engine malfunction & was on a ferry flight to a cheap parking spot with no passengers.

 

 

[hihosland]

The FAA allows ferry or re positioning flights without passengers.

 

 

[onetrack]

Boeing are claiming they have the MCAS problems sorted with a new software fix. But it could be a while yet before the regulators sign off on it, particularly in the Land of Airbus.

 

https://www.npr.org/2019/03/26/707050572/boeing-737-max-software-fix-and-report-on-fatal-crash-expected-this-week

 

 

[kgwilson]

Given the investigation into the delegating of part of the certification from FAA back to Boeing I think it will be some time before the whole sad affair is resolved. The US will be keen to get it done quickly as they won't want Boeing crippled by this. It is like GM was during the GFC, Too big to fail. The rest of the world though will be somewhat more cautious I suspect. 

 

 

[Garfly]

 

 

 

 

[tafisama]

What I don't understand is why the mcas system trims the elevator full down.In stall recovery we normally relax back pressure and that's enough to break a stall.Boeing should limit the trim down by mcas to something like 10° up or just neutral and this should be programmed to happen some 20kts before the actual stall.

 

 

[kgwilson]

What I don't understand is why the mcas system trims the elevator full down.In stall recovery we normally relax back pressure and that's enough to break a stall.Boeing should limit the trim down by mcas to something like 10° up or just neutral and this should be programmed to happen some 20kts before the actual stall.

Not is it is a full wing drop incipient spin type stall. That is stick forward, ailerons neutral & opposite rudder and power as required.

 

 

[M61A1]

What I don't understand is why the mcas system trims the elevator full down.In stall recovery we normally relax back pressure and that's enough to break a stall.Boeing should limit the trim down by mcas to something like 10° up or just neutral and this should be programmed to happen some 20kts before the actual stall.

I doubt that it is programmed that way. But, if it gives a pitch down command and it doesn’t get a reduction in AoA ( because the pilot is pulling up and because the AoA probe is lying), it will keep adding down trim until it gets the AoA reading that satisfies the computer, or runs into the ground. 

 

 

[tafisama]

I doubt that it is programmed that way. But, if it gives a pitch down command and it doesn’t get a reduction in AoA ( because the pilot is pulling up and because the AoA probe is lying), it will keep adding down trim until it gets the AoA reading that satisfies the computer, or runs into the ground. 

They need to work on that aspect.It should not trim the elevator full down.I believe pitching down to 10° up limit would save souls.I am not sure what the normal climb attitude is for this jet.We will be hearing soon what they have actually done in the new software but if its still set to trim full down, they have not done anything meaningful.I am not sure why the engineers missed it earlier.When you pitch down to prevent a stall,you just ease the stick forward not push it all the way.The furthest it should travel is to neutral elevator position though I would prefer a 5° pitch up attitude so that the aircraft keeps climbing if it was already in a climb. Lol they might need to add an Elevator position sensor as well which will prevent the elevator to be trimmed full down.

 

 

[onetrack]

Given the investigation into the delegating of part of the certification from FAA back to Boeing I think it will be some time before the whole sad affair is resolved. The US will be keen to get it done quickly as they won't want Boeing crippled by this. It is like GM was during the GFC, Too big to fail. The rest of the world though will be somewhat more cautious I suspect. 

There's little chance of this damaging fiasco crippling Boeing in the short-term, it's more like a bad mozzie bite to them. They are valued at USD$212B, and their profit last year was USD$12B.

 

It's estimated the cost of compensation to Boeing for the fiasco, will be limited to about USD$2B, so it's just business as usual for them, albeit with a hiccup.

 

The longer term damage whereby many airlines have incurred severe financial damage by not being able to use their parked-up 737 MAX's, is something that has yet to be played out.

 

I'm not sure how those airlines will be able to recover any of their losses, if at all - and this could mean bankruptcy for some of those airlines, if Boeing don't get those parked aircraft, up and running again, fast.

 

 

[Downunder]

One area that may bite Boeing more than the others is future orders for the 737, as the 737 sales makes a large portion of Boeings profit.

 

Already orders are being cancelled, http://fortune.com/2019/03/22/boeing-737-max-order-cancel/

 

I think a fine, although only symbolic, would be appropriate and perhaps some jail time for someone over the current situation.

 

It would at least send a message about future management decisions....

 

If they get away scott free from the current situation nothing will change I'm sure....

 

 

[kgwilson]

The now retired Captain Chelsea Sullenburger of the Hudson landing after a bird strike fame has hit the nail on the head.

 

Sullenberger calls the two crashes of a new airplane type (it went into service less than two years ago) “unprecedented in modern aviation history,” blaming both an insufficient FAA budget and a “too cozy” relationship between the agency and Boeing.

 

“For too many years,” Sullenberger writes, “the FAA has not been provided budgets sufficient to ensure appropriate oversight of a rapidly growing global aviation industry. Staffing has not been adequate for FAA employees to oversee much of the critically important work of validating and approving aircraft certification.”

 

As a result, he says, to save money the FAA has designated aircraft manufacturers themselves to certify that their planes are safe.

 

“This, of course, has created inherent conflicts of interest,” Sullenberger writes, yet “in too many cases, FAA employees who rightly called for stricter compliance with safety standards and more rigorous design choices have been overruled by FAA management, often under corporate or political pressure.”

 

As for Boeing, he says, it “has focused on trying to protect its product and defend its stance, but the best way, indeed the only way, to really protect one’s brand or product is to protect the people who use it. We must not forget that the basis of business, what makes business possible, is trust.”

 

“Let me be clear,” Sullenberger adds, “without effective leadership and support from political leaders in the administration, the FAA does not have sufficient independence to be able to do its job, which is to keep air travelers and crews safe. Oversight must mean accountability, or it means nothing.”

 

 

[APenNameAndThatA]

There is a tendency for systems to become more efficient over time by decreasing safety. After an accident, the safety is increased and efficiency decreases. Then the process repeats itself.  From my point of view, the scary thing is that this means that there are other things that might have been missed. 

 

 

[facthunter]

The price of safety is constant vigilance, no cost cutting or complacency. SELF certifying is a failure of concept. Boeing HAD a GOOD name. Not any more., You can't BUY a reputation when you have thrown it away.  Nev

 

 

[Old Koreelah]

Here is an intriguing theory from another site; I haven't followed this discussion closely, so forgive me if this possibility has already been raised here:

 

https://www.homebuiltairplanes.com/forums/threads/a-friend-of-mine-just-found-a-second-design-change-in-the-max-that-likely-explains-the-crashes.31420/

 

 

[Garfly]

https://www.flyingmag.com/ethiopian-737-max-pilots-followed-procedures?cmpid=ene20190404

 

 

[IBob]

Here is an intriguing theory from another site; I haven't followed this discussion closely, so forgive me if this possibility has already been raised here:

https://www.homebuiltairplanes.com/forums/threads/a-friend-of-mine-just-found-a-second-design-change-in-the-max-that-likely-explains-the-crashes.31420/

Just when you think this can't get worse........it gets worse........(

 

 

[Thruster88]

The switches have not been reversed, left cuts all electric trim including, pilots thumb, autopilot, MCAS, right cuts autopilot ? only. This is same for all 737, labels are different on max. If the MCAS can't be stopped with the right (autopilot) switch then this is a flawed design if the trim wheels are hard to turn manually. 

 

 

[Garfly]

 

 

 

An interesting sidebar to the unfolding story.   (The issue is summarised  in this YouTube comment):

 

'Could you comment on the veracity of this report from the Seattle Times: "Fehrm collaborated with a Swedish pilot for a major European airline to do a simulator test that recreated the possible conditions in the Ethiopian cockpit. A chilling video of how that simulator test played out was posted to YouTube and showed exactly the scenario envisaged in the analysis, elevating it from plausible theory to demonstrated possibility. The Swedish pilot is a 737 flight instructor and training captain who hosts a popular YouTube channel called Mentour Pilot, where he communicates the intricate details of flying an airliner. To protect his employment, his name and the name of his airline are not revealed, but he is very clearly an expert 737 pilot. In the test, the two European pilots in the 737 simulator set up a situation reflecting what happens when the pre-software fix MCAS is activated: They moved the stabilizer to push the nose down. They set the indicators to show disagreement over the air speed and followed normal procedures to address that, which increases airspeed. They then followed the instructions Boeing recommended and, as airspeed increases, the forces on the control column and on the stabilizer wheel become increasingly strong. After just a few minutes, with the plane still nose down, the Swedish 737 training pilot is exerting all his might to hold the control column, locking his upper arms around it. Meanwhile, on his right, the first officer tries vainly to turn the stabilizer wheel, barely able to budge it by the end. If this had been a real flight, these two very competent 737 pilots would have been all but lost. The Swedish pilot says at the start of the video that he’s posting it both as a cautionary safety alert but also to undercut the narrative among some pilots, especially Americans, that the Indonesian and Ethiopian flight crews must have been incompetent and couldn’t “just fly the airplane.” Early Wednesday, the Swedish pilot removed the video after a colleague advised that he do so, given that all the facts are not yet in from the ongoing investigation of the crash of Flight 302." '