Here We Go Again, Pilot Shortages Predicted

[mnewbery]

I'm not saying that there will or won't be a pilot shortage, stock market surge, flood, drought, meteor strike, second coming or anything else but...

 

June 2011

 

http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/story/2011/06/Demand-for-airline-pilots-set-to-soar/48661596/1

 

Quote

 

"It is a dramatic turnaround," says Louis Smith, president of FltOps.com, a website that provides career and financial planning for pilots. "Pilot hiring was severely depressed in the last three years. The next 10 years will be the exact opposite, with the longest and largest pilot hiring boom in the history of the industry."

 

The demand for pilots will be so great that the industry could ultimately face a shortage, sparking fierce competition among airlines across the globe vying for candidates qualified to fill their cockpits.

 

End Quote

 

More recently

 

February 15th 2012

 

http://www.news.com.au/travel/news/pilot-shortage-looms-warns-un-aviation-agency/story-e6frfq80-1226271375679

 

Still, $100k debt with no chance of putting roots down for up to two decades if your health holds out.

 

Will the regional airlines end up being the aviation equivalent of feeder clubs for the NRL? Alternatively will they discover training pilots and giving them work experience jumping puddles to be more profitable than actually putting bums on seats to and from the middle of woop-woop?

 

 

[TAA Student Pilot]

"It is a dramatic turnaround," says Louis Smith, president of FltOps.com, a website that provides career and financial planning for pilots. "Pilot hiring was severely depressed in the last three years. The next 10 years will be the exact opposite, with the longest and largest pilot hiring boom in the history of the industry."The demand for pilots will be so great that the industry could ultimately face a shortage, sparking fierce competition among airlines across the globe vying for candidates qualified to fill their cockpits.

So says Louis, you think he might be a tad biased? Trying to drum up some business?

 

"Alternatively will they discover training pilots and giving them work experience jumping puddles to be more profitable than actually putting bums on seats to and from the middle of woop-woop?

Already have, or at least some are using it to suppliment the other side and as a good source of cheap employment. Even if the garanteed job is only handling luggage after paying $140,000+ for pilot training.

 

 

[mnewbery]

Then there's this:

 

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ainalerts/2012-06-14/looming-pilot-shortage-presents-interesting-dilemma?page=1

 

The comments are illuminating to say the least and there are a lot of comments.

 

Louis Smith moved Fltops to http://www.fapa.aero/ and was interviewed on Airplane Geeks #102. It's worth a listen. Boeing and others are making plans based on analysis like his. He's not a shill and much of his analysis is behind a pay-wall so you could say he gets paid for his opinions.

 

Still, a comment noted above are that in the last decade 40,000 New pilots were trained to CPL or higher EACH YEAR in the US of A alone. Many of these went to fly domestically in other countries.

 

Everyone else appears to have learned to eat dirt and live in a ditch (joke) or get a non flying job as you say.

 

By my maths, worldwide there should be an oversupply of 300,000 commercial pilots right now. That is to say, the world needed 10,000 new pilots every ten years since 9/11 but actually got 40,000 each year.

 

So if nobody trained any pilots for the next 10 years, we would still have 200,000 pilots too many less the ones who left for personal or other reasons. This assumes that air travel doesn't grow exponentially

 

 

[sixtiesrelic]

I've been flying for 52 years and this story of the impending shortage comes up every few years ... we had a tiny one in 1961 in OZ for a week or so.

 

 

[mnewbery]

http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=f5704c0a-2a61-40bd-9c63-0357a9a8c974

 

Quote

 

The Boeing outlook indicates that by 2031 the world will require 460,000 new commercial airline pilots, and 601,000 new commercial airline maintenance technicians. "In many regions of the world, our customers are facing challenges in recruiting personnel due to pilot and technician shortages," said Sherry Carbary, vice president, Boeing Flight Services. "Boeing is committed to developing innovative solutions that address this critical need by leveraging our knowledge, expertise and experienced global team to give our customers and the industry the training advantage they need to succeed."

 

While overall demand for aviation personnel remains strong, the projected need for technicians has decreased from last year, due in part to improving airplane technology and maintenance efficiencies as well as older airplanes being retired sooner than average due to higher fuel prices. The result is better than expected reliability and longer maintenance check intervals. Demand for maintenance personnel, however, is still expected to grow in proportion to the expanding global fleet.

 

Projected demand by region:

 

Asia Pacific – 185,600 pilots and 243,500 technicians

 

Europe – 100,900 pilots and 129,700 technicians

 

North America – 69,000 pilots and 92,500 technicians

 

Middle East – 36,100 pilots and 53,700 technicians

 

Latin America – 42,000 pilots and 47,300 technicians

 

Africa – 14,500 pilots and 16,200 technicians

 

Russia and CIS – 11,900 pilots and 18,100 technicians

 

End quote

 

 

[mnewbery]

Same details from Avweb plus some commentary

 

http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/pilot_demand_age_65_206963-1.html

 

 

[bas]

Sounds more like a pilots-type-rated-on-our-equipment-and-with-enough-hours-to-satisfy-the-marketing-department's-requirement-so-they-can-say-we-only-employ-experienced-crew shortage.

 

 

[TAA Student Pilot]

That'd be right Bas, anybody rated on a Jabaroo could step straight into a 380 :D People also rated on single Cessna's could step into say a 737? It'd be OK though cause they have two pilots, one could use the left engine and one could use the right :p Also best to use very low hour pilots, as somebody suggested they can learn as they go.

 

 

[bas]

I was implying that if they want them experienced, they should fork out to train them instead of trying to free load!

 

 

[mnewbery]

Anyone see parallels between this discussion and the one coming from the mining industry? Specifically a bunch of people with the urge but not a lot of experience on one side and a bunch of other people with a very specific agenda on the other.

 

I assure you all the IT industry isn't much better, at least not today.

 

 

[mnewbery]

On the news.com.au website some wag suggested if you wanted to jump the queue in mining you should move to NZ and pretend to be a down-and-out, pity-worthy chav from some impoverished country town. The logical conclusion is that the mining industry would welcome you as an extremely motivated and homeless little tumbleweed with no family and no reason to go home. Only work and not join a union or complain about the boss

 

Without being too much of a stretch, one can see this is where a certain cadetship was headed when they attempted to move Australian trainees to a NZ base.

 

 

[TAA Student Pilot]

I was implying that if they want them experienced, they should fork out to train them instead of trying to free load!

Agreed, seems most now expect the incoming pilot to pay for all endorsments up to and including 737.

 

 

[mnewbery]

http://www.jetwhine.com/2012/07/another-pilot-shortagereally/

 

Quote

 

Here’s an idea: Rather than our collective wringing of hands over a shortage that doesn’t exist, let’s figure out how we can incorporate language instructors into flight training faculties so schools can meet the needs of those who need the most pilots, and so pilots who don’t speak those Asian languages might have a shot at a job.

 

End quote

 

 

[mnewbery]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2012/07/29/virgin-cadets-to-fill-it-hopes-a-pilot-shortage/

 

...but saying it doesn't make it so

 

 

[Guest Darren Masters]

Airlines need to start paying better and offering better initiatives with cadetships etc...

 

 

[Firepearl]

Anyone see parallels between this discussion and the one coming from the mining industry? Specifically a bunch of people with the urge but not a lot of experience on one side and a bunch of other people with a very specific agenda on the other.I assure you all the IT industry isn't much better, at least not today.

The shortage of numbers in the mining industry is mostly driven by training organisation propoganda. They offer 5day courses for operator training and inductions for thousands of dollars and they are not worth a pinch of crap. In mining it really does come down to who you know or where you live to break into the industry. Not doing a $5000 course and living in the burbs of Brisbane waiting for a call to go FIFO. At the end of the day experience is the key word!

 

Look whats happening now, coal prices drop, new taxes introduced = redundencies.

 

I considered moving into aviation but it would take me 20 years (if im lucky) to earn the coin im on now, I also love flying, and if i made flying my job well it would just be another job wouldnt it !

 

 

[mnewbery]

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/oceania.html

 

Umm. 12900 new pilots is the number that everyone else is quoting Boeing as saying is a fair number for Australasia. That's 12,900 new pilots flying mostly narrow body jet aircraft the next 20 years... I can't find where anyone in Boeing actually wrote that down.

 

Anyone see this is 'only' 600 new airline pilot jobs every year? Given there are over 300 schools in Australia capable of training pilots to CPL today, even if half of the instructors went out today and got a frozen ATPL then an interview with an airline that would leave the remaining schools 4 or 5 CPL students a year each ...

 

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

 

Yes there is a fresh round of news outlets repeating the same Boeing story today. Upsetting

 

 

[mnewbery]

http://www.flyingmag.com/blogs/fly-wire/pilot-shortage

 

Read the comment by DeSouza on 02 Dec 2012. Does Australia stil have well-to-do parents like this?

 

 

[mnewbery]

http://www.avweb.com/podcast/podcast/AudioPodcast_KentLovelace_UND_AirlinePilotPool_Training_208709-1.html

 

In this interview, Professor Kent Lovelace from "a university that provides flight training with a degree" suggests that the change to first officer eligibility rules in the USA has already put new applicants off the idea of flying the line. He noted that a material shortage of eligible first officer applicants will occur there in 2015.

 

We have no such rules here...