onetrack Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 And on the other hand ... a former Ford CEO, who was a great proponent of EV's when at the helm of Ford, is now saying that the rush to EV's and electric motive power is not going to happen at the speed that everyone is predicting ... [/url]https://www.autonews.com/executives/former-ford-ceo-says-industry-faces-reckoning-over-ev-goals The second and third comments under the article are very much on the mark. China is definitely leading the charge to EV development, but there's the worrying factors that China owns and controls the rare earth metals mining and production - and the production of batteries with the current factory numbers, has no hope of meeting the massive demand, if everyone decides they need an EV. There may be a technological breakthrough in batteries, somewhere, of course - some researcher could possibly produce a battery that is much more energy-intensive, or which only requires simple constituents to manufacture. But the bottom line is, it's not only battery technology that needs to come up to speed, electric motor development still has a way to go, to increase the electric motors efficiency. And at the end of the day, electric motors still need magnets, and hi-tech magnets still need rare earth elements. My gut feeling is, that we will still be relying on hybrids for a couple of decades yet, until EV's start to actually become competitive. 1
fly_tornado Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 from memory, Mark Field didn't introduce a single EV, he pushed for turbo everything in Ford's range.
facthunter Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 Turbo is the best way to manage an IC. engine. Probably the single biggest break through in later years, coupled with direct injection petrol engines and good auto's .The motors respond and do low revs most of the time with excellent economy figures. Nev
turboplanner Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 And on the other hand ... a former Ford CEO, who was a great proponent of EV's when at the helm of Ford, is now saying that the rush to EV's and electric motive power is not going to happen at the speed that everyone is predicting ... [/url]https://www.autonews.com/executives/former-ford-ceo-says-industry-faces-reckoning-over-ev-goals The second and third comments under the article are very much on the mark. China is definitely leading the charge to EV development, but there's the worrying factors that China owns and controls the rare earth metals mining and production - and the production of batteries with the current factory numbers, has no hope of meeting the massive demand, if everyone decides they need an EV. There may be a technological breakthrough in batteries, somewhere, of course - some researcher could possibly produce a battery that is much more energy-intensive, or which only requires simple constituents to manufacture. But the bottom line is, it's not only battery technology that needs to come up to speed, electric motor development still has a way to go, to increase the electric motors efficiency. And at the end of the day, electric motors still need magnets, and hi-tech magnets still need rare earth elements. My gut feeling is, that we will still be relying on hybrids for a couple of decades yet, until EV's start to actually become competitive. Yes, the key to a future for EVs is a breakthrough in battery design, otherwise they'll go the way of the GM EVs that were called back in and crushed due to minimal customer demand. If the Presidential Committee finds that Global Warming "Scientists" have been spinning us a tale they're dead as soon as the horrible truths of that sink in, and oil drilling will take off again. If they find the global warming claims justified, you'll see a wartime type development funded by government. It's hard to say "They'll never find a suitable battery" because people have a habit of solving problems, but I was forst promise one in 1986, and we are still no furtjer advanced. Hybrids should not be compared with EVs, because the designer has the ability to decide how big to make the ICE and how big to make the electrical system. What we've seen in the Prius system is a relatively low power ICE to give the Prius just "acceptable" performance that renewables enthusiasts are prepared to put up with. The RAV4 Hybrid we talked about a couple of days ago has a very healthy combined power output for towing and passing, and there's nothing to stop someone using, say, an existing power/torque engine for a Hilux/Navara and adding smaller scale electric motors, to get fuel savings.
fly_tornado Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 A few brave souls powering on with electric flight [/url]https://aeromarine-lsa.com/electrolite-update/?fbclid=IwAR0r7gDXIZO1xUwISBDPaPmqaSeVa-SBnLfPYkabkru53BS4anXvlJYMZ9Q
octave Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 It's hard to say "They'll never find a suitable battery" because people have a habit of solving problems, but I was forst promise one in 1986, and we are still no furtjer advanced. I disagree with this statement. The energy density and price of batteries has improved markedly since 1986 https://data.bloomberglp.com/bnef/sites/14/2017/07/BNEF-Lithium-ion-battery-costs-and-market.pdf 1
octave Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 electric motor development still has a way to go, to increase the electric motors efficiency. The efficiency of an EV electric motor is between 85% and 90% the efficiency of an EV at the wheels is between 59% and 62% for a conventional IC engine around 17% to 21% of the energy in petrol reaches the wheels. Electric Car Myth Buster — Efficiency | CleanTechnica As a regular driver of a BMWI3 but alas I don't own it I am wondering how the "inefficiency" of the electric motor manifests itself. 1
turboplanner Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 I disagree with this statement. The energy density and price of batteries has improved markedly since 1986 https://data.bloomberglp.com/bnef/sites/14/2017/07/BNEF-Lithium-ion-battery-costs-and-market.pdf The batteries don't have enough life to achieve all round range, so country people are stuffed. The ranges quoted are for quiet urban driving, not hard acceleration, highway work, towing etc. If you need to lead-foot it range can be sharply reduced, which Bex told us about on one of his trips. The life cycle is coming in at around 10 years, when you have to replace all batteries - a very expensive job The end of life batteries require an expensive disposal process. The batteries take too long to charge. Manufacturers have been quoting range replacement, i.e. charge the battery to suit 200 km range. If the batteries go to zero, charging them can take up to 40 hours. All of these issues can be resolved if there's a significant break through in battery design. 2
pmccarthy Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 If the Presidential Committee finds that Global Warming "Scientists" have been spinning us a tale they're dead as soon as the horrible truths of that sink in, and oil drilling will take off again. If they find the global warming claims justified, you'll see a wartime type development funded by government. The revelation about global warming will happen, probably first in the USA where it is politically possible. Senior politicians there and in Australia know it is BS and that is why they are resisting the socialist nonsense, not because they are stupid. 1
octave Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 The batteries don't have enough life to achieve all round range, so country people are stuffed. I would not say stuffed but probably less suited to country living. The ranges quoted are for quiet urban driving, not hard acceleration, highway work, towing etc. If you need to lead-foot it range can be sharply reduced, which Bex told us about on one of his trips. As I said I drive my son's BMWI3 when visiting him. He is quite a petrol head and owns many cars but drives an EV for his daily drive. Even with his fairly aggressive driving style he has enough range for his usual daily drive. this vehicle has a range extender engine but this is rarely used. He charges it of a standard plug at home on off-peak electricity which costs a little over $1 per 100 km. He lives in Wellington where fuel is well over $2 a litre. Apart from that servicing and repairs are dirt cheap (no repairs so far) Tires on this particular car are horrendously expensive $400 each! I found it much more fun to drive than an ICE vehicle. The life cycle is coming in at around 10 years, when you have to replace all batteries - a very expensive job There are some Teslas that have done 500 000 miles and still have 80% capacity Tesla batteries will live longer than expected, survey finds it seems that batteries are tending to last longer than predicted. Occasionally a battery will fail however the standard guarantee is 8 years. !0 years is quite a longe life for a car. A friend has one of the first Nissan Leafs and is contemplating replacing the battery which will cost around 5.5k I am not sure how this compares to replacing an engine in an ICE car after it is clapped out. The end of life batteries require an expensive disposal process. Used EV car batteries are being repurposed for stationary systems. What happens to used electric-car batteries? You may be surprised. Of course, the numbers are still relatively small but as the share of EVs grows so will the recycling market, indeed it is already underway. China scrambles to tap EV battery recycling opportunity The batteries take too long to charge. Manufacturers have been quoting range replacement, i.e. charge the battery to suit 200 km range. If the batteries go to zero, I am not suggesting that today's EVs are suitable for all driving regimes however in my son's case charging overnight on puny 8 amp charger (car starts charging when off-peak begins) gives him plenty of range for his daily run with plenty to spare. If the batteries go to zero, charging them can take up to 40 hours. The batteries do not effectively get to zero due to the protection systems but the charging starts out being fast reducing as you get past 80%. My son only uses a fast charger (50kw) when he goes to his favourite cafe where if it were almost flat it would take about 40 minutes. For many people the daily drive is modest, the car sits idle overnight. When I borrow this car one of the joys is never having to go to a petrol station (it does have a small range extender engine but we have never used it. To say that charging takes 40 hours is very much a worst-case scenario and really only applies to the largest batteries and the smallest charge, ie standard powerpoint. I am certainly not saying everyone should go out and buy one if I thought that I would buy one myself but it is not quite economically viable yet. This country does lag behind many other countries. Whilst visiting my son in NZ it is common to see quite a few evs on the road (loads of leafs, or is it leaves?) I believe Norway has reached 60% of new vehicle sales being EV. Almost every car company is selling or developing EVs and many have announced that they are phasing out ICE engines. If I had a few more dollars to throw at it I would certainly buy one because it is much more pleasurable to drive and the range would be fine for what I do. Often people are unaware of where the technology is at this point in time. In a discussion with someone recently they were adamant that batteries only last for 3 years which is strange given they are guaranteed for 8 years. As to whether EVs will become a fast-growing sector of the new car market we will soon be able to see in the stats. Certainly, the experience in many other countries would suggest growth in the EV market. 1
facthunter Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 They would have to be the best way to get to a railway station but why own it to just sit there all day. Maintenance is minimal. Should be less trouble than hiring a pushbike. Nev
fly_tornado Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 The batteries don't have enough life to achieve all round range, so country people are stuffed. Barnaby will save them or Who ever invents or commercializes the next generation of Battery technology will be the next Bill Gates, rich beyond their wildest dreams. 3
fly_tornado Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 This looks interesting, electric air racing [/url]https://airracee.com/
Marty_d Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 The revelation about global warming will happen, probably first in the USA where it is politically possible. Senior politicians there and in Australia know it is BS and that is why they are resisting the socialist nonsense, not because they are stupid. Interesting. If you consider something agreed to be a real and urgent danger by the vast majority of experts in the field to be BS, who on Earth could you possibly trust to give you information about anything? Senior CONSERVATIVE politicians resist it because a) they're in the pockets of big oil, coal and power companies, and b) because huge segments of their constituency think anything said by experts that doesn't match their worldview must be a "socialist" conspiracy. I don't think it's stupidity, I think it's willful ignorance, cynical manipulation of an easily misled voter base, self interest, and inflexible thinking. In Trump and Pence's case add stupidity and extreme religious beliefs. 4
spacesailor Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 ". !0 years is quite a long life for a car." Remember all the second-class citizens of Australia all drive used vehicles. My car is 21 years young & I've had her for 11 years. (Must do Some maintenance one day). LoL spacesailor
mnewbery Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 Rolls Royce just bought the aero motive part of Siemens. They seem to see a future in it. Also of note, NASA just put two electric motors on a P2006T then decided that was so much fun they are going to replace those two motors with twelve (12) on a slightly higher aspect ratio wing, then fly it around with real people inside to see how it feels for NASA. I can see a 700 SHP electric Cessna caravan with two motors in series coming quite soon. It's already been built. Regardless of how the power is generated or stored, an electric caravan would make a pretty neat sky diving platform. Imagine, flat out on gas and batteries for 20 minutes then the prop windmills on the way down while the battery recharges a bit for another load of meat bombs. I'm liking the idea of a CATO drifter though... 2
turboplanner Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 Interesting. If you consider something agreed to be a real and urgent danger by the vast majority of experts in the field to be BS, who on Earth could you possibly trust to give you information about anything? Senior CONSERVATIVE politicians resist it because a) they're in the pockets of big oil, coal and power companies, and b) because huge segments of their constituency think anything said by experts that doesn't match their worldview must be a "socialist" conspiracy. I don't think it's stupidity, I think it's willful ignorance, cynical manipulation of an easily misled voter base, self interest, and inflexible thinking. In Trump and Pence's case add stupidity and extreme religious beliefs. It's this sort of factless hyperbole that led to the belief in the US that it was time for an even-handed assessment of what has been going on in the scientific community. Watch for reports of evidence taken by the Presidential Committee on Climate Aecurity (PCCS).
turboplanner Posted June 21, 2019 Posted June 21, 2019 Rolls Royce just bought the aero motive part of Siemens. They seem to see a future in it. Also of note, NASA just put two electric motors on a P2006T then decided that was so much fun they are going to replace those two motors with twelve (12) on a slightly higher aspect ratio wing, then fly it around with real people inside to see how it feels for NASA. I can see a 700 SHP electric Cessna caravan with two motors in series coming quite soon. It's already been built. Regardless of how the power is generated or stored, an electric caravan would make a pretty neat sky diving platform. Imagine, flat out on gas and batteries for 20 minutes then the prop windmills on the way down while the battery recharges a bit for another load of meat bombs. I'm liking the idea of a CATO drifter though... Base to base applications like Skydiving and Training would be good applications for electric. If someone can come up with a solar panel suitable for the top wing surface, that would speed up viability. About a decade ago, a stick-on film with printed receptors was developed. It only had 30% of the efficiency of a rigid silicon panel, but was very cheap to produce, but it seems to have failed in the marketplace. The huge torque of electric motors is also ideal for a very fast climb in a Skydiving aircraft, and the byproduct, high heat, can be dissipated on the dive down and on the ground between flights.
facthunter Posted June 22, 2019 Posted June 22, 2019 With an efficiency of 85-90% electric motor heat dissipation is far less of a problem than an IC engine which is rarely above 30% efficiency. The recovered energy on the way down would be lucky to be significant but would allow more maneuvering/flight Path adjustments prior to landing and assurance of being able to taxi . The BIG improve is SAFETY through engine reliability .Full climb power to 8,000' and to idle descent cycling is about the worst thing for an aero engine, particularly Piston engine ones. Nev
turboplanner Posted June 22, 2019 Posted June 22, 2019 With an efficiency of 85-90% electric motor heat dissipation is far less of a problem than an IC engine which is rarely above 30% efficiency. The recovered energy on the way down would be lucky to be significant but would allow more maneuvering/flight Path adjustments prior to landing and assurance of being able to taxi . The BIG improve is SAFETY through engine reliability .Full climb power to 8,000' and to idle descent cycling is about the worst thing for an aero engine, particularly Piston engine ones. Nev There’s a big difference in the heat coming out of a quarter horsepower refrigerator motor which lives out it’s life without failures then is used to drive things like grinders and gem tumblers, and the high performance lightweight motors in RC aircraft, slot cars, and motor vehicles where they have to overcome driveline efficiency, surface coefficient, tyres coefficient, startability, gradability for torque and frontal area for horsepower. I drove a couple of Japanese 2 tonne electric trucks in the mid 1990s, and although they had the acceleration of a 5 litre V8, all of them had to be parked to cool off after the test drive. This problem appears to have been partially addressed by reducing the power output in today’s electric cars.
facthunter Posted June 22, 2019 Posted June 22, 2019 Diesel electric replaced Coal when I was young and they use the motors and nothing else up long hills to get the power to the tracks.. I'm surprised it's taken so long to make bigger in roads into the transmission side of things.. I see it as a new frontier . Servicing is minimal. Nev
onetrack Posted June 22, 2019 Posted June 22, 2019 The weight factor of electric motors is why they haven't made inroads into lighter equipment. In locos, weight is a necessity - in everything else, weight reduction is a necessity. That's what I meant when I was talking about "more efficient" electric motors - motors that are relatively light in weight, as compared to current electric motors.
Yenn Posted June 22, 2019 Posted June 22, 2019 The London trolley buses in the 1940s had terrific acceleration and I never heard of one being stopped by overheating. of course they were powered by overhead wires so didn't have to carry the weight of batteries.
jackc Posted June 22, 2019 Posted June 22, 2019 I got really interested in one of these a few years ago, until I got the price. [/url]https://ruppert-composite.ch/en/ Cheers, Jack.
onetrack Posted June 22, 2019 Posted June 22, 2019 The new Albuquerque electric buses (from BYD), have been a technical flop, with inadequate range and overheating issues. [/url]https://usa.streetsblog.org/2018/11/21/albuquerques-groundbreaking-bus-project-stalled/
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