skippydiesel Posted November 18, 2019 Posted November 18, 2019 Jobs! ???? When automation & computer programs can do most future jobs and what remain are in the euphemistically named low paid service industries and food/water security dominates global politics what of jobs then????? We should be behaving as a small, highly educated country - agile, tech & investment savy but instead we behave like an old entrenched power - dithering and confused by the pace of change. We did have an opportunity to lead but I fear that"window" may have closed although its not to late to jump on the bandwagon if only we run after it instead of arguing about the cost. Our politicians/leaders are all so willing to sell our futures for a few shekels today. 2
turboplanner Posted November 18, 2019 Posted November 18, 2019 It is amazing how the FUDs (this is what we call them now) seem to believe that they live at the pinnacle of human technological development. Ignoring the change in technology throughout their lifespan thus far they suddenly believe that the only sound investment is in today's technology or perhaps even yesterdays. This discussion needs to get back to Fire fighting strategy, and in particular the use of aircraft. Unfortunately I need to contribute a detailed set of information on something else in order to get there, but for this gem: The peaks in the investment world are fear and greed. The FUDs live in the fear side, but you conveniently left out the greed side. 1
turboplanner Posted November 18, 2019 Posted November 18, 2019 Battery tech Smart grids Hydrogen creation & transport Algae Carbon fibre from black coal Plastic extraction from the ocean Recycling Biofuels Education & research Electric vehicles And that's just off the top of my head in the last 30 seconds. There would be literally hundreds of industries that Australia could be world leaders in, if the government actually a) acknowledged the urgency, b) acknowledged that even if we meet Kyoto/Paris it's not nearly enough, and c) showed some leadership and certainty to industry by placing the true costs of emissions back on the industries which do it. I could produce the same sort of list; in fact we could list hundreds of thousands of products but you haven't addressed what I said "To stay in business you have to sell something." There are literally dozens of "Technology Parks" ect around Australia, mostly occupied by conventional businesses, because "hi tech" ones couldn't be found. Hi Tech by the way was a buzz word of the young executive in the late 1960s. Good luck with your Hi Tech renewables; I hope you succeed.
turboplanner Posted November 18, 2019 Posted November 18, 2019 I've looked at this; we have to get back to fire fighting, but he's putting forward a case with the benefit of hindsight, or if you like reverse engineering. I could apply the same theme to Pearl Harbour in WW2. or, how is the Steam Engine going? I'm very conscious that there is a list out there on the internet of famous quotes by well known people that "such and such" could never be done, and the inventions and developments run to hundreds, but that's just statistics. The failures of people who follow in the footsteps of your disruptive technologies numbers in the millions.
turboplanner Posted November 18, 2019 Posted November 18, 2019 You seem to be asserting that the measurements from one gauge indicative of global sea rise and yet the radar altimetry measurements from NASAs Jasan satellites show a clear rise https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level/products-images.html If you believe the the Willytwn measurements are relevant by themselves then why not Darwin's measurements by themselves they show a steady increase. Do you believe the radar altimetry is inaccurate and why do you believe that. Does it contradict measurements from other satellite? if so which ones? I am not sure what conclusion you are drawing from this so perhaps you could explain it. The IPCC graph shows predictions of global warming; if the temperature goes all the water in all the seas expands and sea level rises in correlation. Yes I know the IPCC is for air temp and I'm going to use a sea level comparison, but this is just a quick comparison for a forum, where you can do your own research if you wish. The IPCC and sea level graphs of GW predictions both have a very flat history, then a sharp exponential uplift from the start of the Industrial age; that's been the message repeated over and over again. If you look at the period from 1964 to the present any graph should have a distinct upward tilt. If you then go to the Williamstown Tidal Gauge data, which is accurate water level height measured at exactly the same location time after time for 54 years from 1964 to 2018, when we are well into that upward curve where the sea should be starting to invade and species should be starting to die, you don't see that 20 - 30 degree upward trend, it's more or less flat. An upward trend would have higher highs and higher lows, but at Williamstown that hasn't happened. Yes it is just one place No, I'm not saying individual tidal gauges elsewhere will be the same as Williamstown, but this should certainly spark research. You could check the Darwin tidal gauge, and that might well have different figures or trend. I'm not saying satellites are inaccurate, although I have found remarkable differences between surveyed heights and satellite heights on land. I am saying that the tidal gauge at Williamstown does not reflect the prediction of people who have taken ocean temperatures from around the world, and then combined them and used their own assumptions and methodology to massage them into a single figure such as 1 mm or 3 mm for the whole world. What I am saying is that Melbourne, which officially uses this Tidal Gauge for its Planning AHD heights could, if it obtained the correlating Chart for seal level rise predictions, make its own mind up from its own data that it is (a) about to be flooded by global warming or (b) has not been affected by any warming, and based on the unadulterated factual data, is not likely to be any time soon.
turboplanner Posted November 18, 2019 Posted November 18, 2019 "I'm very intrigued that no one has commented on the complex graph I posted in #143. - the Global Distribution of Atmospheric CO2." Octave: "I am not sure what conclusion you are drawing from this so perhaps you could explain it." Simple: You'll remember when the Ozone layer was a problem it had holes at the poles. This graph shows, by latitude, where all the CO2 is sitting above the earth. Most CO2 is sitting up in the northern hemisphere above the highly populated countries. There is very little CO2 in the Southern Hemisphere, and if you compare the capital city latitudes I posted earlier most of Australia has only a tiny amount, and Hobart from memory is off the bottom of the graph. The conclusion this graph leads to is if CO2 is a global warming cause and not a global warming by-product#, then it's a Northern Hemisphere problem for the northern Hemisphere to fix. (Historically, during the cold war period, Nuclear fallout was also going to stay in the Northern Hemisphere, due to the world's weather patterns). Based on this graph, it's therefore not surprising that the Williamstown Tiday Gauge is not indicating Global Warming. # In the morphing of the theories of climate scientists from "Greenhouse Gases" to "Global Warming" to "Climate Change" (downward descriptions by the way), CO2 was not mentioned as a cause in the early days.
Jim McDowall Posted November 18, 2019 Posted November 18, 2019 And Stony Point tidal gauge in SA is showing sea level FALL! Everybody seems to think that the tectonic plates are sitting static but in truth they are on the the move as are areas within them - up and down - as has been going on for ever. I think the UN should put a stop to this geologic phenomena by taxing the hell out of earths populations. It is the height of human conceit that we think we can change forces of nature that we do not comprehensively understand. As for the so called renewables industry. It would not exist without the unrestrained global government support that it has received, the like of which no other industry has ever received. If coal had received the same incentives we would have emission free coal fired power stations everywhere. As for those who have taken the bait on lithium based batteries, have a look at this: https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/green-illusion-continues-tesla-crash-victim-cant-find-anyone-recycle-his-wrecked-car In reality, Elon Musk has just been mining the government coffers of the world peddling a product that if it was anything else it would probably be banned on environmental grounds. 1
Old Koreelah Posted November 18, 2019 Posted November 18, 2019 And meanwhile we destroy manufacturing in this country by having the highest power prices in the world... Jim I share your concerns about the loss of our manufacturing capacity, but I hope you're not blaming renewables for our high electricity prices. That furfey has been well and truly refuted. Our power prices are high largely because of mismanagement of the sector by successive governments- mostly LNP- who allowed massive waste and who still refuse to plan for the future.
facthunter Posted November 18, 2019 Posted November 18, 2019 You have done an excellent job of providing quality links, showed extreme patience, never used disparaging terms for those who disregard what you say Octave . You insist on and stick to the FACTS.. Take a well deserved pat on the back from me , (if that's worth anything. ). Stereo typing and using disparaging terms don't win my vote. You can produce steel using hydrogen. ALL my ancestors worked in the steel and mining Industries and that's where I started. Continuing the mistakes of yesterday that sort of worked but with a great cost to the individual workers and the Planet. Just continuing those practices, when the population is multiples of what it was stabilised at and IGNORING the REAL Cost of doing that is not on. The cost of NOT changing our habits is immeasurable. and we have no planet "B". We are energy Junkies and hooked on the wrong type. More of the problem is not part of the solution. In this country we have wasted a lot of valuable time and of all places on earth may be one of the most delicate to manage. So Far, in 250 years, we have shown how not to do it, just about everywhere you care to look. Again .. Thanks for your efforts. Nev 3 1 2
turboplanner Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 Renewable energy goes hand in hand with the Climate change issue raised by the 5 ex commissioners which has now swelled to 23 people. Country people have replaced the old 32volt Lister diesel generators where, when you turned a light switch on you could hear the engine start up, and it would shut down when the last switch was turned off. There were no transmission fires from this system, but it was followed by networks of power lines across the paddocks and along the roads, and when the wind farms were built more power grid lines were built, and we’ve had the advent of a significant number of fires caused by failures in poles and contact by trees, the Ash Wednesday fires at Macedon being the most serious. The best solution would be to generate power to country homes at the home site, and while some people manage to live totally on solar, we don’t yet have the economics and technology to do this on a large farm. In certain types of farming power supply is absolutely critical – incubation etc. Probably the dirtiest thing about our power supply today is the number of misleading stories that are told in this industry. Base Load Power Generators driven by steam turbines require boilers running at high temperatures. If the boilers are shut down when power demand drops, the rapid changes in temperature damage them, so these Power Stations are required to run 24/7 at a rate of generation which will not damage the boilers. This is known as Base Load Power and historically, cheap rates (“Off Peak”) were offered for refrigerators, hot water systems etc to cover the cost of running the power plants at base load. In recent times some renewable energy suppliers have been referring to Base Load Power as a baseline of consumer demand. By quoting this fake Base Load Power, unsurprisingly their system outputs running flat out are not dissimilar to those of coal/gas/oil fired Power plants – close enough to fool members of the public that they are the way of the future, and we should get rid of Coal-fired plants now! However, we don’t demand maximum power during cool autumn nights when everyone is asleep, we demand it in the summer-time to power air conditioning, and that’s called Peak Power, and that’s what counts. When the fuel fired Plants come up to speed we demand a HUGE increase in power generation. Even after 30 years of us paying subsidies from our taxes, wind and solar power don’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of meeting this Peak Power requirement. Do we have any proof of this? Yes, we do. I would recommend everyone copy and paste this link somewhere safe and bring it out this summer when we start to hit Peak Power Demand, and blackouts start rolling through, and you’ll be able to see for yourself. This is the link to the Australian Energy Market Operator Data Dashboard https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard?fbclid=IwAR0yavA1WT5gvP338WTeZq2-nGdWTNuTn8HJyXFch6Cpra86KxXif5NARyM#nem-dispatch-overview Electricity can be shunted around the eastern grid from Sugar Mills in Queensland to News South Wales to Victoria to the hydro system in Tasmania to South Australia in any direction needed. The darker rectangles in the Data Dashboard show power flow live in Megawatts (MW) for: · Demand · Generation · Generation Wind and Other They also show the going price per Megawatt per hour MWh) The small moving arrows (triangles) show power being transferred from one state to another to fill Peak Power Demand anywhere on the grid. If we freeze the Dashboard in a non-peak day and time (8:51, 18/11/19), we can calculate the contribution of Wind and Other generation in each State. Demand Fuel-fired Generation (Coal/Gas/Oil/Bagasse) Wind/Solar Generation W/S % of Demand Qld 6165 5626 1063 17.2% NSW 7536 6320 956 12.7% Vic 4747 3676 586 12.3% Tas 1160 1260 161 13.9% SA 1147 798 311 27.1% Looking at the percentage performance of Wind and Solar Plants, you could be forgiven for believing the “Renewable” stories about their performance being competitive. However, when Peak Power is required they are a disaster. Last summer, on the day power was disconnected from over 100,000 homes in Victoria to save the power grid the Wind and Solar generation was about the same as the above chart. As I recall, Queensland and NSW were on about 1300 MW each. However, the available coal-fired plants had kicked in with South Australia drawing power from Victoria, Victoria drawing power from Tasmania and NSW and NSW drawing power from Queensland. Where the Wind/Solar generation was reading about 1300 MW, the Coal-Fired Power churned out was about 130,000 MW After 30 years of subsidies Wind Farms and Solar Energy could only supply about 1% of our needs, and it was in that 1% bracket for every State on that day. The best spin you could put on that hopeless performance was that the governments are subsidising the wind farms who are giving part of that money to graziers trying to survive on wool. With this link, on a hot day you can look at the Dashboard and ask yourself why you’ve been paying taxes to prop up an industry for 30 years that can only make 1% of Peak Demand. Maybe some of you can contact your State governments and ask for a tax refund based on non-performance. If the 23 dudes get under Canberra’s skin and the government decides to “do something” about climate change, remember that the political solution might be more subsidies for the renewables. 1 1
skippydiesel Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 It would seem to me that our historic & ongoing failure to have a value adding industrial sector has everything to do with the cultural/cringe dependence on greater/larger powers that seems to permeate all sides of our political leadership - no vision, no passion, no ideology (except the acquisition/retention of power) . Australia needs to be weaned but I see no sign of even teenage rebellion let alone separation from the breast of Uncle Sam/UK - It would appear that little NZ could show us a thing or two.
skippydiesel Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 Turboplanner - An excellent well reasoned argument - I compliment you. I would ask however - what might the solution(s) be? I do believe in rapid climate change & the pollution/destruction of our environment. Something(s) must be done and now!
turboplanner Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 Turboplanner - An excellent well reasoned argument - I compliment you. I would ask however - what might the solution(s) be? I do believe in rapid climate change & the pollution/destruction of our environment. Something(s) must be done and now! Which post? Fire fighting or one of the others?
red750 Posted November 19, 2019 Author Posted November 19, 2019 DC10 arrived Sydney this morning, at 45,000 litres it's 3 times the load of any of the large tankers in Oz
skippydiesel Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 Which post? Fire fighting or one of the others? Your last on "base load"
Litespeed Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 It is obvious that, no matter what some people think, they must get on the same planet as the rest of us organisms. Or should get off, the dead rock they so earnestly strive for is called the moon. Gaia said its OK,they can all go and do as they wish. Just leave it how you found it. Anyway ........ As demonstrated by a chief sceptic, who eloquently demonstrated with his wonderful prose, and high praise it was indeed. The only solution is to accept the most gravest task...... I accept to be your benevolent dictator. I will rule with science, compassion, ethics and a love of all creatures. Even the those that by their actions have shown their greed over survival of others. Even those that are full of shite. At least we can grow food from them. 1 1
M61A1 Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 Food for thought.... Covers more than just Amazon on fire. You've demonstrated quite clearly that science and ethics are not your strong points, so good luck with the other two you mention.
Litespeed Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 I am happy to take any challenge you make but will be very busy solving the problems created by others. Help is appreciated. I am more than happy to defend my ethics. Take a shot.
turboplanner Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 Turboplanner - An excellent well reasoned argument - I compliment you. I would ask however - what might the solution(s) be? I do believe in rapid climate change & the pollution/destruction of our environment. Something(s) must be done and now! For your rapid climate change belief. Cut the subsidies to the Wind Farms Subsidise the wool growers who lose rentals, restructure industry Build a Nationalised Nuclear Plant Result No bloodsuckers on our taxes Wind Farms can conduct business like anyone else, or leave. Enough Power Generation to get back our reliable all year service, No emissions (just in case you're right), cheapest power to pull down Privateer prices. 1 2
Litespeed Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 Building a nationalised nuclear grid would take at least 30 years minimum and that assumes we could get the money. Nuclear has a role if you have already built and own it. We have not. Even UK are finding they can't build one economically. They have ample experience. Assuming we could build it- we do not have the water to either cool them nor for the steam to power conversion. Steam turbines use huge amounts of water that must be fresh. Or should we build nuclear to run the desal plants needed to provide water to run nuclear. A losers game for a dry country. How is helping sheep farmers going to solve it? I will help them as its my heritage since 1832. But a fibre industry that uses mass water and chemical for low jobs and inedible produce like cotton should be discouraged. As a matter of industry policy. Wind farms do conduct like others, they pay big income to farmers who still get their land to use. Or did you mean the most subsidised industry like mining and coal power, who get govt money, trash the joint, suck up all the water and leave a big hole in the ground and economy? 1 1
Litespeed Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 Before anyone complains about the idea of a "industry policy" , it is something responsible governments do. So I accept you may never have seen one. It is not a picking winners thing- it is ensuring the losers don't get placed on the podium and handed the prizes.
spacesailor Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 "This discussion needs to get back to Fire fighting strategy, and in particular the use of aircraft." Fires need three things (fuel, heat, & air (oxygen). Have the "firebomber's" drop those big bottles of CO2, Open of course, into the fire,. LoL It'll never happen. But Science say's, it would work!. spacesailor 1
onetrack Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 Those big holes in the ground are providing a power generation windfall with pumped hydro. There are 22,000 sites that have been identified as being suitable for pumped hydro by an ANU study. Western Australias goldfields are littered with hundreds and hundreds of massive open-cuts, many of which have partly-filled naturally with brackish and salt water. So there's not even a need for fresh water to run pumped hydro from them. Look up Kidston and Cultana, they are well on the way to becoming power generation sites that can provide electricity, when wind or solar is not supplying it. The best part is, most of these locations are in remote hot areas, so a combination of adjacent solar and pumped hydro works well. I have no particular love for coal-powered generation and coal mining, despite having been involved in extensive amounts of open-cut mining. I believe coal-mining and coal-power generation is on the way out, because it's simply becoming uneconomic. I can't see the sense in digging up large areas of QLD to rail coal to far distant parts of the world to generate power. It's costly to mine, it's costly to transport long distances, and the land devastation from open-cut coal mining is much more extensive, than any other type of open-cut mining. We need to protect our good agricultural land. In W.A., the Collie coal operation lurches from one disaster to another. We had a State Govt that wasted over $300M of taxpayers money on refurbishing the corrosion-riddled Muja AB power station - which should never have been rebuilt, such was its poor condition - and after being rebuilt (it took from 2009 to 2013 to rebuild it), it was scrapped within 4 years. http://brokenpromises.org.au/promises/muja-ab-power-station-refurbishment-paid-for-by-taxpayers https://reneweconomy.com.au/western-australia-to-close-muja-coal-units-to-lower-power-bills-stabilise-grid-59710/ The Indians (Lanco Infratech) bought the ailing Collie mine and generators at the peak of the coal boom in 2011 - and have been losing so much money since, it's only a matter of a short time before its subsidiary Griffin Coal will collapse, and us long-suffering taxpayers of W.A. will be up for another massive bailout of a coal mine and coal-fired assets. Lanco Infratech's imminent collapse has been predicted since 2015, they are merely jamming the door against the pack of wolves, and Lanco Infratechs parent company went bust in 2017. http://www.ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Lanco-Infratechs-Griffin-Coal-Pty-Ltd_A-Western-Australian-stranded-fossil-fuel-asset_Dec2014.pdf Collie coal in crisis - https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-10-30/mp-signals-crisis-as-takeover-of-collie-griffin-coal-looms/11651146 2
Litespeed Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 Yes big holes in the ground can be used for pumped hydro. A good solution for certain areas. But the thousands of holes we have are far in excess of any practical use. A perfect example of mining never cleaning its mess and always shifting the cost to the public. Glad your onboard, pun intended. Funny we don't see the deniers condemn such waste of our money. But will scream murder about even a free shovel for renewables. Please be careful of mentioning the beneficial uses of holes in ground. Some could see that as justifying all the bomb craters in Vietnam, since some are now used for prawn farming. Perverse I know.
turboplanner Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 Building a nationalised nuclear grid would take at least 30 years minimum and that assumes we could get the money. Nuclear has a role if you have already built and own it. We have not. Even UK are finding they can't build one economically. They have ample experience. Assuming we could build it- we do not have the water to either cool them nor for the steam to power conversion. Steam turbines use huge amounts of water that must be fresh. Or should we build nuclear to run the desal plants needed to provide water to run nuclear. A losers game for a dry country. How is helping sheep farmers going to solve it? I will help them as its my heritage since 1832. But a fibre industry that uses mass water and chemical for low jobs and inedible produce like cotton should be discouraged. As a matter of industry policy. Wind farms do conduct like others, they pay big income to farmers who still get their land to use. Or did you mean the most subsidised industry like mining and coal power, who get govt money, trash the joint, suck up all the water and leave a big hole in the ground and economy? Well that's it Skippy, we've been knocked out by the scientists. 1
Recommended Posts