No comments on the Ukrainian 737 crash in Iran yet ?

[Phil Perry]

I'm pleased to see that there are no comments / supposition / theories on this Here so far.

 

The world media seem to be beating themselves to death on the subject. . .  PPrune included.  All manner of tinfoil hat stuff abounds.   ie, Accidental shoot down by Iranian air defence missiles, Donald Trump satellite laser beams. . . you name it.   Commiserations to the families of the deceased passengers, whatever the cause.  With so much bullcarp flying around, I doubt that anyone will ever know the truth, especially if the Iranian authorities don't allow independent inspection of the flight data recorder equipment . . . 

 

I guess we'll just have to watch this space.

 

 

[Old Koreelah]

Another incredibly sad tragedy. Lots of human potential snuffed out in an instant.

 

 

[facthunter]

I think they will get to the bottom of it. A lot of people want answers.. I have my own views but they are just that and will remain so for a while. Nev

 

 

[willedoo]

The latest out of Iran is that they and Ukraine are leading the investigation and might need help from Canada or France to decode the black boxes. Another media report had a retraction on the statement that they wouldn't allow the boxes to go to the U.S., so if true, leaves open the option for cooperation with Boeing.

 

 

[Old Koreelah]

Boeing is a major component of the Military Industrial Complex that Ike warned about, and therefore complicit in the "never ending wars" that Trump was going to stop. Given that and the nasty things America has done to Iran over the years, I don't blame them for not asking for Boeing's help.

 

 

[facthunter]

You don't need Boeing and It's touchy with the Iranians. I personally would not object but it's not perceived as impartial as they have skin in the Game.  The French administration have behaved very protectively when an Airbus was involved in the past at times. Blood is thicker than water. Nev

 

 

[onetrack]

The American news media are saying they have credible reports that an Iranian missile accidentally took the Ukraine 737 down. There's more than one unconfirmed video showing an explosion in the sky, but that could also be anywhere.

 

U.S. satellites will provide any evidence of an in-flight missile hit, once their images are examined and interpreted. There'd be plenty of U.S. spy satellites aimed at Teheran right now.

 

It's an entirely plausible explanation for the crash of an aircraft which is as reliable as they come. The only other explanation is a mishandled engine fire, but that seems quite unlikely, given that Ukrainian aviation has a fairly good record.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/07/world/middleeast/iran-plane-crash-boeing-ukraine.html

 

 

[willedoo]

Photos like this one circulating in the media are adding to speculation due to what looks like perforations in the fuselage.

 

According to another Iranian news report Iran has asked Boeing to send a representative to join in the black box decoding. They also say the American NTSB has accepted Iran's invitation to participate in the investigation. They've also invited  CFM International  and all the countries who lost citizens in the crash.

 

 

 

[old man emu]

Highly unlikely, but what if the cause turned out to be a short circuit in wiring passing through an empty belly tank?

 

 

[onetrack]

The missile hit evidence is building rapidly, particularly when Justin Trudeau states they have Intelligence evidence of a missile hit.

 

Plus the Americans have picked up the infrared signature of two missile launches, then missile signatures locking onto the Ukraine aircraft, then the explosion.

 

Then there's the photo of the remains of the Russian Tor-M1 missile head found at the crash site. It's a repeat of MH-17.

 

The final nail in the coffin is the photo of the fuselage wreckage showing shrapnel holes (very obvious), and the fact that the wreckage is widely spread, typical of a missile hit.

 

Then there's the lack of explanation for total failure of all the aircraft systems, from fail-safe backups, through to a lack of radio transmissions indicating trouble - and I understand even the transponder failed.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/09/catastrophic-failure-ukraine-jet-iran-suggests-missile

 

 

[Yenn]

The last jet downed from Tehran that I remember was an Iranian, shot down by the Yanks. Could that be why they are very quiet?

 

 

[kgwilson]

Another report says the aircraft turned around and was headed back to the airport after the explosion or whatever it was and then crashed. There are plenty of theories and speculation but until CVR & FDR are examined and the information interpreted, that's all they are. The US especially has a vested interest in the Iranian missile theory.

 

 

[kgwilson]

The shooting down of an Iranian passenger jet in July 1988 killing all 290 passengers & crew by the US warship Vincennes has all but been forgotten but how the real story changed dramatically over time.

 

The Pentagon initially denied any involvement, then admitted it but claimed the aircraft failed to heed multiple warnings & said they took "defensive action". A month later they said Iran must share the blame and stated it was "not the result of any negligent or culpable conduct by any US Naval personnel associated with the incident."

 

But in December of that year, a United Nations agency, the International Civil Aviation Organization, came to a different conclusion. It faulted the United States because none of its ships in the area had the equipment necessary to listen in on civilian air traffic control frequencies, which would have identified the passenger jet.

 

"Seven of [iCAO's] eight recommendations were directed at the Navy shortcomings it had identified," The New York Times reported. Iran sued the US & it took 8 years to reach a settlement where the US would not accept liability but expressed regret at the loss of lives & paid compensation of $61.8 million to the victims families.

 

Whatever the truth is behind this current crash, it is likely to bear little resemblance to the current theories.

 

 

[Downunder]

Given recent events you would imagine intense US scrutiny of anything airborne in Iran with a multitude of surveillance assets. 

 

Anything airborne in Iran would be monitored, so I think an accurate assessment will be forthcoming.   

 

 

[kiwiaviator]

The shooting down of an Iranian passenger jet in July 1988 killing all 290 passengers & crew by the US warship Vincennes has all but been forgotten but how the real story changed dramatically over time.

 

The Pentagon initially denied any involvement, then admitted it but claimed the aircraft failed to heed multiple warnings & said they took "defensive action". A month later they said Iran must share the blame and stated it was "not the result of any negligent or culpable conduct by any US Naval personnel associated with the incident."

 

But in December of that year, a United Nations agency, the International Civil Aviation Organization, came to a different conclusion. It faulted the United States because none of its ships in the area had the equipment necessary to listen in on civilian air traffic control frequencies, which would have identified the passenger jet.

 

"Seven of [iCAO's] eight recommendations were directed at the Navy shortcomings it had identified," The New York Times reported. Iran sued the US & it took 8 years to reach a settlement where the US would not accept liability but expressed regret at the loss of lives & paid compensation of $61.8 million to the victims families.

 

Whatever the truth is behind this current crash, it is likely to bear little resemblance to the current theories.

 

A year after this, we were flying in a UN aircraft from Tehran to Dubai. Over the gulf and being radar vectored by Dubai ATC, we were told to change course by a US warship. When the captain told the warship who we were and that we were under Dubai control, they just repeated the order to change course. We duly did so and Dubai ATC adjusted the approach accordingly. At least the warship was monitoring local ATC frequencies so they must have learnt something.

 

 

[willedoo]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/09/catastrophic-failure-ukraine-jet-iran-suggests-missile

 

Interesting the quote in that Guardian article:

 

" The reality, as was pointed out by aviation forums, was that it had happened before, not just in 2014 with MH17 but also in 1988 when the USS Vincennes, an American guided-missile destroyer, shot down an Iranian airliner, killing everyone on board. "

 

They always seem to forget Siberian Airlines flight 1812 from Israel to Russia that was shot down by the Ukrainian military in 2001.

 

 

[willedoo]

Breaking news article just out of Iran simply reads:

 

' A Ukrainian plane which crashed outside Tehran earlier this week had flown close to a sensitive military site and was brought down due to human error, General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran says. '

 

Sounds like they've finally admitted it was shot down.  There's a bit more on RT.

 

https://www.rt.com/news/477993-tehran-admits-plane-shooting-down/

 

 

[Thruster88]

The Ukrainian 737 was flying the same track as all other departures, we can all see that it's transponder was working. On the bright side the egg on face could put ww3 on hold. 

 

 

[onetrack]

I must say I'm blown away by the fact the Iranians have simply admitted now, that they hit it with a missile in error.

 

I was sure obfuscation and lies and blaming America, would be the order of the day, for years to come.

 

All I can guess, is that the evidence was so overwhelming from the start, that it just couldn't be denied, and that's probably the reason why they owned up.

 

When the leaders of the various Western countries started saying it was an Iranian missile hit, picked up by U.S. spy satellites and Intelligence from intercepted communications, then I knew it was getting the ring of truth.

 

Poor buggers, it's bad enough getting shot down by a foreign nation, let alone your own countrymen.

 

Doesn't say much for the trigger-happiness and poor level of training amongst the missile operators.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-11/iran-admits-to-shooting-down-ukrainian-plane/11860508

 

 

[snarf007]

Why does this happen in this day and age.  It makes me so angry!! And to think Iran wants Nukes...

 

Have they not heard of Flight Aware or Flight Radar apps?

 

 

[kgwilson]

I must say I'm blown away by the fact the Iranians have simply admitted now, that they hit it with a missile in error.

 

I was sure obfuscation and lies and blaming America, would be the order of the day, for years to come.

 

All I can guess, is that the evidence was so overwhelming from the start, that it just couldn't be denied, and that's probably the reason why they owned up.

 

When the leaders of the various Western countries started saying it was an Iranian missile hit, picked up by U.S. spy satellites and Intelligence from intercepted communications, then I knew it was getting the ring of truth.

 

Poor buggers, it's bad enough getting shot down by a foreign nation, let alone your own countrymen.

 

Doesn't say much for the trigger-happiness and poor level of training amongst the missile operators.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-11/iran-admits-to-shooting-down-ukrainian-plane/11860508

 

When it was the Yanks at fault in 1988 it took them a lot longer to admit to anything & then it was up to the ICAO to tell them they lied & even after 8 years they refused to accept liability. The USA is far from honest in almost anything they do away from home.

 

 

[facthunter]

It's pretty hard to mistake it (the 737,( for a Cruise Missile but they were pretty spooked. They are still blaming the US for the general circumstances of it but that's a pretty weak argument when the retaliation you are expecting is from YOU lobbing missiles on US bases in IRAQ. Perhaps Civil air OPS should have been cancelled, but all in all a pretty poor performance technically in the circumstances. Nev

 

 

[onetrack]

You're not wrong there, Nev - and the downing of a mid-size commercial airliner is an indication of how poor the identification and control systems are on these Russian missiles - coupled with poor training in the Middle Eastern countries.

 

General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps airspace unit, said - "the airline's pilot and crew had done nothing wrong, and instead an Iranian officer made the 'bad decision' to open fire on the plane after mistaking it for a cruise missile."

 

Now this was an IRGC officer who gave the order to fire - not a lowly private acting on impulse - on a large aircraft that was very obviously climbing - not descending, as you'd expect from a cruise missile only a short distance from its target.

 

I guess that's what you get, when training in learning the words of the Quran, comes before good military training that results in competent officers with outstanding leadership skills.

 

Boeing 737-800 specifications;  MTOW - 70,535kg.  Wingspan - 34.31M. Length - 39.47M

 

Cruise missile specifications;

 

 

 

[Yenn]

I cannot understand criticism of the Iranians for a wrong decision without even greater criticism of the Captain pf the Vincennes.

 

The Yanks had all the time in the world to decide to attack and they were not under any threat of enemy action, unlike the Iranians which had had one of their generals murdered and were expecting to be attacked again in retaliation for their strike on US bases in Iraq.

 

It seems very quiet from the Tweeter, maybe he is exercising some better judgement at last, but that would be too much to expect.

 

 

[onetrack]

There was general opinion amongst us Aussie Diggers in 'Nam, that we were in more danger of being shot up by Americans, than we were of being shot up by Viet Cong or NVA soldiers.