How has COVID 19 affected your flying or intended flying

[aro]

Ventilators are not going to be an issue.

There are over 4,000 ventilators in oz

currently there are 4163 cases with 28 in critical care (on ventilators) . On the current numbers we would need to have over 400,000 cases to come close to causing a ventilator issue.

 

We can look at other countries to see what happens if the spread is not controlled. Cases (roughly) increase by a factor of 10 every 2 weeks.

 

So 4000 cases could be 40,000 in 2 weeks, 400,000 in 4 weeks, 4 million in 6 weeks. And with the incubation period you can expect the number of cases to increase for another week or 2 after spread is controlled, so whatever number you have then you can multiply by 5-10 if you do a good job of control.

 

Look at Italy, they went from only a few cases, no problem, to overwhelmed in a few weeks. The USA is going through the same thing. There will be a massive number of deaths there. They are talking about 100,000 deaths but I have no idea what they think they can do to keep the number that low.

 

We are hopefully locking things down early enough to avoid that scenario.

[kgwilson]

With the benefit of the knowledge of actions in China, South Korea, Italy, Spain, the rest of Europe & the UK we have been painfully slow to act. Maybe though that is how it has to happen here. Perhaps we need various stuffups, inaction, failures and bad examples to jolt the collective psyche of the nation until that critical mass is reached & we all start singing from the same song sheet. We now seem to have got to the point where everyone or at least the great majority are following or beginning to follow the advice of medical professionals who have finally got through to our political masters. Early signs are that the spread is beginning to slow and we are doing a lot of testing.

 

Only time will tell if this strategy is going to work.

[onetrack]

The number of COVID-19 cases detected in W.A. has been falling for 3 days now. Over 30% of the COVID-19 cases in W.A. have come from cruise ships, or people returning from overseas by air.

 

There doesn't appear to be any serious spread in the general population of W.A., obviously due to the shutting of establishments where people congregated, the distancing rules, and the quarantining of people who have returned from overseas.

[turboplanner]

There is now no need to go to the State/Territory Health sites to find out that private/recreational flying is closed.

 

We have moved to Stage 3, and only these four activities are permitted from 11:59 tonight.

 

1. Essential shopping

2. Exercise ( with limitations)

3. Essential Medical visits (Doctor/Chemist)

4. Work or Education if that is deemed necessary.

 

So Zero flying.

[turboplanner]

The number of COVID-19 cases detected in W.A. has been falling for 3 days now. Over 30% of the COVID-19 cases in W.A. have come from cruise ships, or people returning from overseas by air.

There doesn't appear to be any serious spread in the general population of W.A., obviously due to the shutting of establishments where people congregated, the distancing rules, and the quarantining of people who have returned from overseas.

 

Another more positive sign in Victoria (Source: The Age, 9:09 pm)

[M61A1]

There is now no need to go to the State/Territory Health sites to find out that private/recreational flying is closed.

 

We have moved to Stage 3, and only these four activities are permitted from 11:59 tonight.

 

1. Essential shopping

2. Exercise ( with limitations)

3. Essential Medical visits (Doctor/Chemist)

4. Work or Education if that is deemed necessary.

 

So Zero flying.

I will concede that they have outlawed flying now. Unnecessary, really.

But at least I got a good few hours in over the weekend while it was still legal rather than listening to the disinformation posted by yourself.

What bothers me most about it is that you claim to read instructive documents regularly, so the misinformation must have been deliberate.

 

Another more positive sign in Victoria (Source: The Age, 9:09 pm)

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Shouldn’t Dan have the other hand raised?

Have you seen Kyle? He’s about this high. ?

[turboplanner]

I will concede that they have outlawed flying now. Unnecessary, really.

But at least I got a good few hours in over the weekend while it was still legal rather than listening to the disinformation posted by yourself.

What bothers me most about it is that you claim to read instructive documents regularly, so the misinformation must have been deliberate.

Shouldn’t Dan have the other hand raised?

Have you seen Kyle? He’s about this high. ?

Your first comment indicates you still don't understand the reason and nor did the people who continued mixing in Stage 2, which is why we got Stage 3.

If you chose to fly when subustantial penalties were being applied, that's your problem; I checked before posting my information.

There was no misinformation so there was nothing deliverate. Independent of anything I said a busy airport like Moorabbin was able to cut flights in its traning area by nearly 100%. CASA wasn't calling the shots, DHHS were.

[Flying Binghi]

Coronavirus deliberately started by the Chinese government? That's in the same category as " faked moon landings ".

They may be nasty enough to do the deed, but I strongly doubt that they are smart enough to get away with it.

 

We’ll see how the scenario pans out. In the mean time there are many questions being asked and scenario’s thought about...

 

“...According to a University of Southampton study, people in Wuhan begin falling sick with a strange form of influenza in mid-November 2019. By mid-December at the very latest – as we now know – local medical authorities in Wuhan are aware that a new type of flu is infecting stall-holders and shoppers from the Hua'nan 'wet market' in the city..

 

..Alarmed by the similarities of this new 'Wuhan flu' to SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) local doctors in Wuhan send samples from patients to multiple Chinese medical laboratories. According to an investigation by Beijing-based independent media company Caixin Global: 'As early as Dec 27, a Guangzhou-based genomics company had sequenced most of the virus from fluid samples from the lung of a 65-year old deliveryman..

 

..Any responsible government, knowing the pandemic-panic created by SARS – which spread to 26 countries in 2003 – would have alerted the responsible international authority, the World Health Organisation immediately, and taken all steps to contain this new, unknown virus.

 

The People's Republic of China did not...”

 

https://9now.nine.com.au/60-minutes/china-cover-up-coronavirus-12-missing-days-wuhan-60-minutes/d8426648-f9b3-4439-9089-b733b8e4a6c5

 

 

 

 

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[Flying Binghi]

A different angle about Not isolating the young and healthy...

 

“...The observation that early exposure to polio viruses provided life-long immunity raises the question regards dealing with COVID 19. To what degree is sheltering in place preventing people from becoming naturally immune when infected with a mild strain?

 

The larger the population of naturally immune people, the greater the “fire-break” that prevents the spread of a more deadly strain. Just as social distancing minimizes the exponential growth of a deadly strain, it also prevents the exponential growth of naturally immune people. If so, perhaps a more targeted approach would be better. Our elderly population are the most vulnerable and are often confined to crowded facilities. People with compromised health conditions should self-isolate. We definitely need to minimize the spread to those vulnerable people.....” Continues... Unintended Consequences? Polio and COVID 19

 

 

 

 

 

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[Old Koreelah]

[quote="Flying Binghi, post: 555076, member: ..Any responsible government, knowing the pandemic-panic created by SARS – which spread to 26 countries in 2003 – would have alerted the responsible international authority, the World Health Organisation immediately, and taken all steps to contain this new, unknown virus.

 

The People's Republic of China did not...”

 

You're probably right, FB.

What is equally appalling is that it took MONTHS more before countries like ours got organised. Shutting the stable door after the horse was long gone.

[Guest Machtuk]

I will concede that they have outlawed flying now. Unnecessary, really.

But at least I got a good few hours in over the weekend while it was still legal rather than listening to the disinformation posted by yourself.

What bothers me most about it is that you claim to read instructive documents regularly, so the misinformation must have been deliberate.

 

 

Shouldn’t Dan have the other hand raised?

Have you seen Kyle? He’s about this high. ?

 

I had a great flight today, not a sole in sight & all legal too?

[M61A1]

I had a great flight today, not a sole in sight & all legal too?

What reason did you fly under? It’s easy enough to to be socially distant, but since they now use the word “must” in their stage 3 restrictions , and then only give you four acceptable reasons. None of which I can reasonably use, despite not being in contact a single soul through the whole process.

[Thruster88]

Hundreds of VH training aircraft in the sky today and that's just the ones with ADSB transponder.

[kaz3g]

Another magnificent day in paradise (SHEPP) and sitting on the ground looking at the sky.

 

Autumn is a brilliant time for flying here and it’s flowing off the calendar at a very disconcerting rate.

 

The Chinese trainees from Mangalore YMNG are still active with touch and go’s, and the twins are droning around the NDM, but nothing local at all.

[octave]

A different angle about Not isolating the young and healthy...

 

Ultimately this is how it will probably be wound back when the time is right. I think it is easy to think that the economy would be fine if we only isolated the elderly. i would suggest that if we totally lifted the lockdown that a large percentage of the population would still self isolate until things are more under control. I think all those planes stored down the road from me at Avalon would still mostly be sitting there because not many people would want to risk travelling.

 

Let's think about the only isolating the old scenario in terms of aviation. The average young fit pilot would fall into lower risk category although of course they may have children with asthma or perhaps the mother in law lives with them.

 

These young fit people will be out of isolation but must in turn not mix with older family members. Add to this the percentage of people with hypertension and heart disease. I would suggest many folks here would have some blood pressure problems.

 

In many industries the older experienced workers are crucial.

 

Interesting interview with Prof Peter Doherty, probably a little long for most people to watch. He makes the point that there are many experiments being conducted into how to handle this pandemic. Some experiments are failures such as the USA Italy the UK, Spain and some much better experiments such as Israel and New Zealand. He rates us as being in the middle. We can look at these other countries and see what happens when you do too little too late. The more thorough we isolate the quicker we will get to the stage where it is more manageable.

 

[Guest Machtuk]

What reason did you fly under? It’s easy enough to to be socially distant, but since they now use the word “must” in their stage 3 restrictions , and then only give you four acceptable reasons. None of which I can reasonably use, despite not being in contact a single soul through the whole process.

 

It's not law, it's not enforceable! How could the cops police 25Mill people? The enforceable law is the 'Noah' law, the 4 reasons they Govt mention is to keep the fear amongst us!

[facthunter]

They already know most movements. Your phone gives all the info needed. Virus doesn't spread by itself. It needs a vector and it's US and is often animals. It's also mutating, though not very much. Enough to track different sources. Nev

[turboplanner]

They already know most movements. Your phone gives all the info needed. Virus doesn't spread by itself. It needs a vector and it's US and is often animals. It's also mutating, though not very much. Enough to track different sources. Nev

The total tracking team would blow your mind. I seem to remember them saying this morning the State teams have interviewed 40,000 people and is about to be expanded.

If they can keep reaching and testing the people who have been in contact with the positive tester, they avoid the massive exponential expansion, and can extinguish the branches of the original Patient.

[spacesailor]

CAN'T track my phone.

I switch off for the slightest of reasons.

No GPS & no location.

 

spacesailor

[Flying Binghi]

CAN'T track my phone.

I switch off for the slightest of reasons.

No GPS & no location.

 

?.....?

 

 

They can track my mobile phone - most of the time I forget to take it with me and it sits on the kitchen table...

 

 

 

 

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[Guest Machtuk]

No ones gunna be tracking ordinary citizens phone, the resources to do that would be astronomical and ineffective, besides its unesesary!

[turboplanner]

The total tracking team would blow your mind.

As in tracking the virus not people’s phones. Once the positive person tells them who he/she has been in contact with they go and talk to them, get them tested etc.

[M61A1]

It's not law, it's not enforceable! How could the cops police 25Mill people? The enforceable law is the 'Noah' law, the 4 reasons they Govt mention is to keep the fear amongst us!

After seeing how QLD cops worked with Newman’s VLAD laws, il’m not prepared to try my luck when they are given this much authority.

[Flying Binghi]

 

...

 

...Interesting interview with Prof Peter Doherty, probably a little long for most people to watch. He makes the point that there are many experiments being conducted into how to handle this pandemic. Some experiments are failures such as the USA Italy the UK, Spain and some much better experiments such as Israel and New Zealand. He rates us as being in the middle. We can look at these other countries and see what happens when you do too little too late. The more thorough we isolate the quicker we will get to the stage where it is more manageable.

 

 

Interesting video, though, Doherty don’t seem to like capitalism..? Still, worth watching.

 

An earlier vid from the Australian Academy of Science series presented by Prof. Purcell of the Doherty Institute suggests 12 months to a vaccine ?

The Korean expert Professor Kim Woo-joo suggests a minimum vaccine time of at least 18 months..?

 

I suppose the Kiwis have plenty of milk and lamb to live of until the vaccine comes out though I don’t know what the Israelis are going to do?

I’d say the main worry of the Israelis at this time are probably the ‘multicultural problems’ they have. Apparently, alah protects all believers... ?

 

A reality check, and Doherty alluded to it with his Gold Coast booze comments, is there will not be an enforceable lock down in Australia for more then a few weeks. Hopefully, just enuf time for the message to sink in to the most venerable in society to stay home. Prof. Kim Woo-joo also commented on the reality of the young just going out.

 

 

 

 

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[spacesailor]

The young are going out to " Catch IT " Party's, treating it like a cold or flue.

most will get it over with, then it's life as normal, for them.

We did the same with chicken pox & measles.

AND don't forget the English government gave us kids " germen measles " just to find Carriers.

I had a lump and sore arm for a while, my brother went into an Isolation hospital. Nearly killed him.

spacesailor