How has COVID 19 affected your flying or intended flying

[Flying Binghi]

“...In an article on the website of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Jefferson and Carl Heneghan, director of the centre and editor of BMJ EBM, write, “There can be little doubt that covid-19 may be far more widely distributed than some may believe. Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.

 

“What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?”.....”

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375

 

 

 

 

 

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[SplitS]

Victoria opening schools next week but you cannot go fishing or play golf or FLYING by yourself. Have we gone insane?

Lock downs ending soon.

Wondering how they are going to whined it back after the retoric.

[octave]

There are only about 10 Aus patients currently on ventilators.

 

That figure is incorrect it was 35 on respirators yesterday and 96 in ICU.

 

The dire predictions are based on doing nothing but we are doing something and we have reduced the infection doubly number of days. To look at a badly handled situation look at New York where they have begun to share 1 respirator between 2 patients which is somewhat experimental.

Again the grave predictions are based on not taking action but we are. If the death and complication rates are low compared to other illnesses we also have to factor in the R0 number 2% of 24000000 people is a big number.

 

In terms of saying only old or people with preexisting conditions getting is so who cares? A friend of my son is a doctor at John Hunter working in ER and we have been chatting, he would like to point out that the many medics around the world who have died were not necessarily old or have preexisting conditions but are otherwise healthy however it also comes down to the viral load. Intubating a patient causes many droplets. One problem these are not droplets but more like an aerosol. Pre Existing conditions are important but so is viral load.

 

Th US is an interesting experiment with different states using different tactics. In time it will become clear which tactic produces the best results.

[turboplanner]

Looks like the whole running out of ventilators thing is a bust.

There are only about 10 Aus patients currently on ventilators. Lucky we have over 4000 ICU bed's

If you require a ventilator your chance of survival is about 20% so patients don't spend much time on them anyway.

Remind me again what the lock down was for?

The covid-19 scare for the mathematical illiterate.

We have just about finished the phase where infected people were coming in from overseas, and are in week 2 of Community transmissions where explosions tend to happen. The peak is expected April, May, but we've bought valuable time on a lot of fronts, so I suspect the best case sceanrio has substantially improved.

[Marty_d]

Some of the rules may be a little strange (eg not being able to fly solo) but the fact is that it's WORKING. If you reckon that Australia's response is too much then just look at other countries, for example the US, where there's refrigerated trucks throughout New York because there's not enough space in the morgues.

For chrissakes sometimes the economy is not the most important thing in life. If you think that social isolation and the economic impacts are too high, please put a dollar value on the lives of each of your family and let us know how much you think they're worth.

[turboplanner]

Victoria opening schools next week but you cannot go fishing or play golf or FLYING by yourself. Have we gone insane?

Lock downs ending soon.

Wondering how they are going to whined it back after the retoric.

Get it right; if your child can stay home he/she MUST stay home.

What Daniel Andrews said is that we have a million students in Victoria and if we allow them to move all over the place they will be spreading the virus. We are now in the Community Transmission phase.

What the schools will be open for are only the children of Emergency workers such as nurses, doctors, police, and those whose children can't stay home to be schooled online.

[Mike Gearon]

That figure is incorrect it was 35 on respirators yesterday and 96 in ICU.

That’s a worrying figure. The curve in Australia is flattering as a sign of hope. People in authority need to be held accountable for that shipload of virus cases. 600 of the 2700 walked off the ship with the virus and without even a temperature check. Ruby Princess/ Diamond Princess. You’d think that’d have raised alarm bells. Complacent, clueless or dismissive decision makers need to be held accountable.

In terms of saying only old or people with preexisting conditions getting is so who cares? A friend of my son is a doctor at John Hunter working in ER and we have been chatting, he would like to point out that the many medics around the world who have died were not necessarily old or have preexisting conditions but are otherwise healthy however it also comes down to the viral load. Intubating a patient causes many droplets. One problem these are not droplets but more like an aerosol. Pre Existing conditions are important but so is viral load.

Yes, the Wuhan ophthalmologist was young and apparently viral load from proximity was part of the reason he died.

[turboplanner]

People in authority need to be held accountable for that shipload of virus cases. 600 of the 2700 walked off the ship with the virus and without even a temperature check. Ruby Princess/ Diamond Princess. You’d think that’d have raised alarm bells. Complacent, clueless or dismissive decision makers need to be held accountable.

The ship is docked, there is a Criminal Investigation taking place, and a Class Action is being formed.

[Yenn]

That Qld health directive is certainly not being observed. As I see it the government wants us all to spend money to keep the economy moving, but the directive does not allow us to go out to buy anything except essentials.

On the one hand we are being told to hide away and on the other hand we are being told to go out and spend, in fact I think pensioners are supposedly getting a lump sum to do just that.

It will be interesting to see if anyone is taken to court and also what transpires. I am all for controls to keep us safe, but as usual they are not thought through and are poorly worded.

[Flying Binghi]

 

...

 

...the Wuhan ophthalmologist was young and apparently viral load from proximity was part of the reason he died.

 

The other part of the reason he died were talking to the world about a dangerous ‘new’ virus. Probably from “proximity” to the barrel of a gun..?

 

 

Meanwhile, another Chinese doctor whistle blower ‘disappears’....

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[slb]

Update: (Victoria)

 

Meanwhile, Victoria Police have said the following about the learner driver's $1,652 fine, which has since been overturned:

 

While the fine was legally issued as gaining driving practice is not one of the four exemptions set out by the Chief Health Officer, discretion has been applied in this instance as we understand there was some confusion within the community around whether this type of activity was allowed.

 

The Chief Health Officer has made it clear that undertaking driving practice in the current climate is not an essential activity, unless the learner driver is gaining driving practice in line with one of the four exemptions. This includes when driving to purchase food or supplies or when travelling to work or education.

 

Every Victorian should now be well aware that getting into the car purely for the purpose of driving practice is not an exemption permitted by the Chief Health Officer.

 

We are asking all Victorians to abide by the Chief Health Officer's recommendations and stay at home where possible

[turboplanner]

That Qld health directive is certainly not being observed. As I see it the government wants us all to spend money to keep the economy moving, but the directive does not allow us to go out to buy anything except essentials.

On the one hand we are being told to hide away and on the other hand we are being told to go out and spend, in fact I think pensioners are supposedly getting a lump sum to do just that.

It will be interesting to see if anyone is taken to court and also what transpires. I am all for controls to keep us safe, but as usual they are not thought through and are poorly worded.

We are in partial lockdown where people are allowed out to buy essentials.

Under full lockdown we would be relying on the government to deliver food parcels, medication etc.

At the present time we can at least get out of the house to buy the essentials we want, where we want them, and we can get to doctors and dentists for emergency work.

So we have this twilight zone where the Health people are balancing the risk of letting people out of their homes vs the risk of them spreading or picking up the virus.

The balancing act is being done on the run as the data comes in.

The take up of Stage 3 has been excellent, but as we saw with photos of crowded Queenlsand beaches this wwekend, and complaining from people involved in outdoor sport and hobbies, there is still a rump of people who either don't understand this is an exponential virus with no vaccine, or don't care.

So far, so good, but the cure for them is Stage 4.

As to controls not thought through or poorly worded, the decisions are being made by people with outstanding Health Skills, just about all Professors as far as I can see, at a very fast rate of change. Sometimes, as data comes in it becomes necessary to up the effort within three or four days with a new set of standards. Bills normally take several months to pass through Parliament; compressing that amount of meaning into four days is going to leave some blanks.

 

Reminds me of the story of when the Japanese bombed the Darwin Hospital for the first time and the Air Raid siren started. Nurses and doctors ran for the bunkers with one nurse running in the opposite direction. A doctor queried her and she said "I'm just going to get my teeth"

"move nurse" he said "It's bombs they're dropping, not sandwiches."

 

So far in the trade off where maybe 5% can't understand what's wanted of them, and fast action can prevent that exponential spread, Australia is looking very good.

Edited April 7, 2020 by turboplanner

[onetrack]

Sweden is going to be an interesting exercise, they have refused to introduce restrictions on movement, they just expect people to, "think about what they are doing, and do the right thing". I can't see that ending well.

 

Sweden currently has 400 deaths from COVID-19 (10 times Australias total virus deaths), for a population that is half of Australia.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-07/coronavirus-sweden-adopting-more-flexible-approach/12118422

[kgwilson]

That Qld health directive is certainly not being observed. As I see it the government wants us all to spend money to keep the economy moving, but the directive does not allow us to go out to buy anything except essentials.

On the one hand we are being told to hide away and on the other hand we are being told to go out and spend, in fact I think pensioners are supposedly getting a lump sum to do just that.

It will be interesting to see if anyone is taken to court and also what transpires. I am all for controls to keep us safe, but as usual they are not thought through and are poorly worded.

Most pensioners are over the age of 70 and are being told not to go anywhere given 70 plus is the most vulnerable group so it's a bit hard for them to spend the $750.00 unless they do it on line or get someone to go & buy them 800 rolls of toilet paper.

[Flying Binghi]

Update: (Victoria)

 

Meanwhile, Victoria Police have said the following about the learner driver's $1,652 fine, which has since been overturned:

 

 

I woulda thought having an extra licensed driver in the house were essential....?

 

 

 

 

 

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[Flying Binghi]

Can hysteria kill people ?

 

Via the Medical Journal of Australia...

 

“...On Monday 21 February 2005, Australian media broadcast news of a mysterious “gas leak” which was blamed for causing breathing problems, dizziness, nausea, headache and vomiting in 57 people in the vicinity of a terminal at Melbourne’s domestic airport.

 

An investigation by Victorian emergency services personnel identified no leak, and the results of air quality tests were unremarkable. The incident disrupted a third of the domestic passenger flights over 2 days and cost a commercial airline company an estimated three million dollars, not to mention the financial burden borne by responding emergency services and government agencies.

 

In response, Victorian Premier Steve Bracks asked Emergency Services Commissioner Bruce Esplin to “investigate and analyse any matters pertinent to a comprehensive understanding of the incident”.1

 

The Esplin report, issued on 24 March 2005, concluded that the illness cluster was a mystery.1

 

However, in my opinion, the most obvious diagnosis in the circumstances — mass psychogenic illness — did not receive due consideration...”

 

 

https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2005/183/11/mystery-illness-melbourne-airport-toxic-poisoning-or-mass-hysteria

 

.....?

 

Add a few other health conditions to the mixture and I wonder what would we get...?

 

 

 

.

[turboplanner]

Today's report on the National Cabinet Meeting, by the Prime Minister and details of the Modelling work which Australia is using explained by the Chief Medical Officer, Australia, Professor Brendan Murphy.

 

[Flying Binghi]

An interesting article I translated from a German news service.

 

As there do not appear to be any online English versions I reprint it in full...

 

======================================

 

In Heinsberg, the virologist Hendrik Streeck searches for the coronavirus on remote controls and doorknobs. What he finds could decide the end of the shutdown.

 

6/4/20

 

Interview: Jakob Simmank and Florian Schumann

 

Hendrik Streeck sits in a school in Gangelt in the district of Heinsberg, one of the centers of the German coronavirus outbreak. Behind it a panel with a map of the world and the planets of our solar system. He wears a blue coat, the breathing mask dangles next to his neck. Together with his team, the virologist from the University of Bonn is currently studying people here for the largest German study on the spread of coronavirus to date. The school, which is not used because of Corona, is the headquarters. During the video conference, NRW Prime Minister Armin Laschet writes him a text message and the caretaker comes in and asks if he wants to eat something.

 

TIME ONLINE: Professor Streeck, what is your mood?

 

Hendrick Streeck: Thank you, good. The medical students who support us in the study here are incredibly motivated. And the Gangelter are great. The teachers of the school bake cakes for us and within a few days everything was equipped with Wi-Fi and a computer station was set up below.

 

TIME ONLINE: You are actually an expert on the HIV virus. Thanks to the new coronavirus Sars-CoV-2, you are now a sought-after expert as a virologist. How is this for you personally?

 

HENDRIK STREECK has been Professor of Virology at the University of Bonn since 2019, succeeding Christian Drosten. He is also director of the Institute for HIV Research.

 

Streeck: Sars-CoV-2 determines every day. I can't remember ever having dealt with anything else. And that's right. Covid-19 is getting closer and closer to all of us. Almost every one of us now knows someone who is infected.

 

TIME ONLINE: Many people are staring at the number of cases every day and wondering: Is the curve finally flattening? What do you think of it?

 

Streeck: The fact that the figures are going up and that the capacity limit of the clinics has not yet been exceeded is a good thing. It is a sign that our health system can do a lot. Fortunately, we have not yet got into a situation where we have had to decide which people can still be treated. For me, the number of free intensive care beds is the most important thing anyway. It shows whether we still have treatment capacity for the severe Covid-19 cases.

 

TIME ONLINE: And what about the death toll, which is still quite low in Germany so far?

 

Streeck: We will only be able to answer in retrospect whether and how much the monthly death rate increases due to Covid-19. I took a closer look at the cases of 31 of the 40 deceased from the district of Heinsberg – and was not very surprised that these people died. One of the deceased was more than 100 years old, and a normal cold could have led to death. But as I said, the study is still ongoing.

 

TIME ONLINE: Should we look more closely at what really killed people?

 

Streeck: I think so. It is often very important to know whether people have died from viral pneumonia, or covid-19, or something else. In one of the Heinsberg patients, Sars-CoV-2 was detected in the throat. But he had no pneumonia, but died of cardiac arrest.

 

TIME ONLINE: There is a public debate about whether politics listens too much to individual experts. How do you classify yourself?

 

Streeck: At the moment, too much is based on model calculations. But these models are full of assumptions that no one has tested. And often there has to be only one assumption wrong or one thing is not taken into account and the whole model collapses.

 

TIME ONLINE: Do you have an example of this?

 

Streeck: In Imperial College's – really good – model studies on the progress of the epidemic, for example, the authors assume that 50 percent of households where there is a case do not adhere to voluntary quarantine. Where does such an assumption come from? I think we should create more facts.

 

TIME ONLINE: That's exactly what you want to do in Gangelt. You have just started the most comprehensive study on Covid-19 in Germany to date. What is your goal?

 

Streeck: For the first time, we are testing whether they are or were infected with the coronavirus in a sample of the population representative of Germany. This is done by smear and antibody test in the blood. In this way, we can also estimate the number of infections. In total, we examine 1,000 people from 500 households. They all come to our school, twelve households per hour. Here we ask them, for example, whether they were at the carnival meeting from which the outbreak in this region is said to have started; whether they have pre-existing conditions or take certain medications that are suspected of aggravating the infection. Then we take blood and smears from the throat. For Tuesday we have invited all participants of the carnival meeting. Even if you don't believe it, they haven't all been tested yet. In addition, my doctoral student is currently reconstructing the session. He asks the participants where exactly they sat at the cap session and who they talked to.

 

TIME ONLINE: Can this be used to reconstruct the chain of infection?

 

Streeck: Hopefully. We started to record who might have infected whom. Time and again it was also suspected that the rinsing water did not properly disinfect the beer glasses and that people became so infected. But that is probably not true. Most of the people at the meeting drank bottled beer. And other things don't fit either.

 

TIME ONLINE: Which one?

 

Streeck: We are surprised that many people got sick immediately after the carnival, often a day later. This does not fit with the incubation period of several days that we assume for Covid-19. And there are other traces: at the end of January, an entire school is said to have been more or less paralyzed. Almost all children and parents were sick. We are now looking into whether these people have antibodies. If so, we will investigate.

 

"Until now, we have never been able to grow the viruses from the doorknobs"

 

TIME ONLINE: Do you examine people again later?

 

Streeck: We are discussing this. We see that the number of infections in Gangelt is no longer increasing. Here you are already over the mountain. This is the best time to examine a sample. But if the measures were to be relaxed in Gangelt first, we would like to accompany this as a project.

 

TIME ONLINE: Right after the outbreak in Heinsberg began in February, you have already examined the households of infected people. Do you do that again now?

 

Streeck: Yes, from Tuesday the hygienists will go into the households of the people we have recently tested positive. There they collect air and remove remote controls and doorknobs. We have already taken samples in 70 households, but we want a larger sample, although I can imagine what comes out of the investigations.

 

TIME ONLINE: What?

 

Streeck: We found viruses on objects or doorhandles. Also once in toilet water, if someone had diarrhea. In no case, however, have we succeeded in instilling intact viruses from them. This at least suggests that most people do not get infected via surfaces. However, we have now refined the methodology. I am sure that this will give us more refinement.

 

TIME ONLINE: Let's talk about the symptoms you've seen in those infected. They were one of the first to describe an almost complete loss of smell and taste. Are there any other new findings?

 

Streeck: Our data so far show that about one third of patients have diarrhea, even for several days. That is more than previously thought. Moreover , as we have not yet noticed, but we have heard it many times – deafness and dizziness may occur. All these things were not taken into account at first, because they do not fit a respiratory disease.

 

TIME ONLINE: However, they fit with case reports in which scientists describe that Sars CoV-2 infection can cause symptoms related to the nervous system, including headaches. In some cases, researchers even found severe brain damage in deceased patients (Radiology: Poyiadji et al., 2020). Is it known that Sars viruses are capable of such a thing?

 

Streeck: It is not in the textbooks anyway. Sars-CoV-2 is a fairly surprising virus. One that can apparently cause symptoms in several organ systems, and sometimes has a two-phase course, i.e. first affects the throat and then the lungs: all this is not known from other pathogens.

 

TIME ONLINE: Another big unknown is why some people are severely ill and others are barely noticeable.

 

Streeck: This depends on various factors. Pre-diseases play a role and the reaction of the immune system. However, much of this is not yet understood. We were recently surprised by a study whose authors found virus in their blood (Jama: Young et al., 2020). We examined this in all of our first 70 patients and never found viruses in the blood. We have also communicated this to the Paul Ehrlich Institute, which has a relevance for blood donation. And now we are wondering whether the virus may only pass into the blood in the severe gradients, but not in the light ones. We want to investigate these issues.

 

TIME ONLINE: When it comes to severe histories, could it be that a part of the population is protected because these people have cross immunity from another coronavirus infection?

 

Streeck: It is a very exciting question whether there can be an already existing immunity, i.e. a kind of cross-immunity. After all, besides Sars-CoV-2, there are four other coronaviruses that have been going around the world for years, but usually have very mild histories. Only rarely are there heavy histories. This is what we noticed this winter, for example, in some of the staff of our institute. Now we check if their immune system can partially detect Sars-2.

 

"I would find it bad to lock people away from risk groups"

 

TIME ONLINE: Questions of the immune response are fascinating, but they are unlikely to help policymakers. A decision will soon be taken on how to proceed with the existing, rather strict measures after 19 April. We hope for quick results from you and your study.

 

Streeck: Of course, because with our data you will hopefully get a better impression of which measures work and which do not. But we have to wait and see when there are results. The biggest mistake we can make would be to draw conclusions and give advice. Just to have to revise them afterwards. Hopefully, around or after Easter, we can make concrete recommendations. I am in close contact with the State Chancellery of North Rhine-Westphalia and Prime Minister Armin Laschet. The state of NRW is thankfully funding our study.

 

TIME ONLINE: An important question will be how the virus is transmitted in the first place. Shops and shops are closed, people should stay at home. And you are sitting with Markus Lanz recently and say that so far no infections have been detected at the hairdresser, while driving a bus or while shopping. Are the measures too harsh?

 

Streeck: If there are still individual transfers, for example in the supermarket or at the hairdresser,, that is not good, but also not a big problem. It has always been said that our aim is not to completely contain the virus, but to remain below the capacity limit of hospitals. We would not be able to contain the virus if we did not want to sit at home for two or three years. It is also really time for us to invoke data.

 

TIME ONLINE: What do you mean?

 

Streeck: Our preliminary data at least give indications that the virus is not transmitted via surfaces, but in close contact. And the case at Munich, the first in Germany, points in a similar direction. During her visit, the employee of the car supplier from China only infected colleagues with whom she worked quite closely. There was no transmission in the restaurant, the taxi driver has not become infected and no one on public transport. This is despite the fact that this woman seems to have been highly infectious.

 

TIME ONLINE: Do you see that in Gangelt? That the infection chains can be tracked and that the newly infected know those who infected them?

 

Streeck: In Gangelt almost everyone knows each other anyway. But yes, we can usually understand what it was like.

 

TIME ONLINE: In addition, the current restrictions have certain side effects. They have consequences for the economy, unemployment is also increasing and possibly domestic violence and suicides. Do we take all this seriously enough?

 

Streeck: As a virologist, I cannot say what the economic and psychological consequences will be.

 

TIME ONLINE: But for other reasons, you have spoken out against a strict curfew. Why?

 

Streeck: One reason is that we are doing everything that is bad for our immune system. We hang around at home and don't go out in the sun. Sitting on a blanket in the park is already forbidden to sit on a blanket in the park. But again, we are not looking at the facts. Sars-CoV-2 is a droplet infection and not a droplet infection that is transmitted through the air. If it were measles and we all had no immune protection, I would also advise avoiding public transport. I would also behave differently with smallpox.

 

TIME ONLINE: When we talk about how to proceed, dealing with the risk groups is a central issue. What might it look like?

 

Streeck: It is mainly about the elderly and pre-sick people. Ideally, hospital and nursing staff could be tested every week. And for the relatives and visitors, there would be a machine in front of the entrance that allows a quick test. If the test is negative, then they are allowed to come in. If this is not possible with the quick test, you have to consider other possibilities. But the worst thing I would find would be if we were to simply lock certain people away.

 

TIME ONLINE: Whether in the Berlin Club Trompete or at the apricot ski in Ischgl: major events have often been the starting point for outbursts. Should they remain banned for the time being?

 

Streeck: We want to create facts and not speculate.

 

 

 

ZEIT ONLINE | Lesen Sie zeit.de mit Werbung oder imPUR-Abo. Sie haben die Wahl.

 

 

 

 

 

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[Geoff13]

Sweden is going to be an interesting exercise, they have refused to introduce restrictions on movement, they just expect people to, "think about what they are doing, and do the right thing". I can't see that ending well.

 

Sweden currently has 400 deaths from COVID-19 (10 times Australias total virus deaths), for a population that is half of Australia.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-07/coronavirus-sweden-adopting-more-flexible-approach/12118422

 

450,000 sq klms against our 7.62 million sq klms.

Sorry but not a valid comparison.

[Thruster88]

450,000 sq klms against our 7.62 million sq klms.

Sorry but not a valid comparison.

 

Arstralia is the most urbanised country in the world, nobody lives out here in the middle except me and a few others so perhaps it is a valid comparison. No reported covid-19 cases within 50km of me at this stage?

[onetrack]

Considering that an average of 66% of Australia's population lives in 7 coastal cities, and 1 inland city - all with very high population densities, I'd have to say the comparison is quite valid.

 

https://blog.id.com.au/2014/population/demographic-trends/how-centralised-is-australias-population/

[turboplanner]

Has anyone looked at Professor Murphy's data yet in detail? That's the moving foundation on which Australia is working. According to him it has quite a bit of overseas content.

[octave]

Sorry but not a valid comparison.

 

How about comparing Stockholm 974073 and 303 deaths with Adelaide 1.3 million and 1 death.

[spacesailor]

1. 
    
    
    
    
    
   
   • How has COVID 19 affected your flying or intended fly
     
   • Looks like the whole running out of ventilators thing is a bust.
     There are only about 10 Aus patients currently on ventilators. Lucky we have over 4000 ICU bed's
     

[*]If you require a ventilator your chance of survival is about 20% so patients don't spend much time on them anyway.

Remind me again what the lock down was for?

[*]

 

[*] I have one from my sailing days, It's been sitting forlornly in the garage along with other boaty stuff for years, the Oxy cylinder was left behind on board.

 

 

 

[*]spacesailor

[octave]

There are only about 10 Aus patients currently on ventilators. Lucky we have over 4000 ICU bed's

 

35 on ventilators as of yesterday.

 

There are 2378 available intensive care beds in Australia during baseline activity, equating to 9.4 ICU beds per 100 000 population.