How has COVID 19 affected your flying or intended flying

[Thruster88]

Australia an New Zealand are doing very well. In time we could return to "normal" except for keeping closed borders. Get local tourism going and enjoy our island. Sweden 10m Australia 25m

Edited April 27, 2020 by Thruster88

[jackc]

Australia an New Zealand are doing very well. In time we could return to "normal" except for keeping closed borders. Get local tourism going and enjoy our island. Sweden 10m Australia 25m[ATTACH type=full" alt="Resized_20200428_074116_601.jpg]52718[/ATTACH]

 

Again, population density.......

[octave]

Again, population density.......

 

The population density of Australia as a whole mat be low but surely we can compare our individual cites to similar cities.

[Old Koreelah]

All related to population density.....

[kgwilson]

Australias Urban population density is higher than that of the USA at 81.7% compared to 86.07% here. 40% of Australians live in just 2 cities & 89% live in 18 cities. Population density has little to do with the spread, it is how that spread has been managed and the speed at which action was taken that is the difference.

[Bruce Tuncks]

Onetrack, you are of course right about how food production is only limited by how much we put into it. I can imagine desalinized sea-water irrigating the deserts.

But affordable food is a different matter, as is sustainability. Here's my question for you: How many can Australia feed now at affordable food prices without importing fuel or fertilizer? And in 50 years time? Don't forget to factor in global warming and sea-level rise in this figure.

[mnewbery]

But affordable food is a different matter, as is sustainability

Given that the place that has the salt water will be a jurisdiction to the one with the solar panels and the land, also factor in "feeding people needs to be more important than geopolitics".

[M61A1]

Australia an New Zealand are doing very well. In time we could return to "normal" except for keeping closed borders. Get local tourism going and enjoy our island. Sweden 10m Australia 25m[ATTACH type=full" alt="Resized_20200428_074116_601.jpg]52718[/ATTACH]

Tourism is the first to take a hit when money's tight. I can't see it taking off in a hurry after this.

[Jim McDowall]

Australias Urban population density is higher than that of the USA at 81.7% compared to 86.07% here. 40% of Australians live in just 2 cities & 89% live in 18 cities. Population density has little to do with the spread, it is how that spread has been managed and the speed at which action was taken that is the difference.

To repeat a previous post I made on this thread:

Not quite correct. Population density of New York is about 10,000/km2, Barcelona about 16,000/km2, Milan about 7,500/km2 London about 4,500/km2 whereas Melbourne is about 450/km2, Sydney about 400/km2, Adelaide about 400/km2 and Brisbane about 145/km2.

Population density has a lot to do with disease transmission, so the northern hemisphere transmission expectation should only be vaguely related to Australia's.

[octave]

Population density has a lot to do with disease transmission,

 

Of course but even with a high density the disease can only spread by people coming into contact. A high population density combined with strict distancing rules will produce less transmission than a country with a low density where people associate closely. Other factors include testing rates.

 

There are many examples of countries with high population densities that have done well eg Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, South Korea.

 

I think the evidence would strongly suggest that if we had not curtailed physical contact the transmission rate would have been much greater. A lot is know about the transmission rates. We know the R0 number. We know how it spreads.

[kgwilson]

Living in apartments shows a high population density but not necessarily close association. A lot of apartment dwellers hardly know their neighbours & while this can also be said for suburban housing it does not automatically translate into close contact. Thousands of people jammed on to Bondi Beach or in a football stadium does.

[Jim McDowall]

I think the evidence would strongly suggest that if we had not curtailed physical contact the transmission rate would have been much greater

I think the evidence shows that closing borders and quarantining of any returning Australian residents was the main factor in curtailing the spread of the disease - witness Britain, an island nation with still open borders. Limiting internal travel has been of assistance (Govt should have put a fence around Sydney). Track and trace has been effective but anyone who has witnessed the retail frenzy would sensibly call "social distancing" a fraud. Asymptomatic carriers will always present a risk as will those really dont give a sh*T.

[Bruce Tuncks]

But you and I can avoid contact with suspect people. I would have just supported front-line workers and those who wanted help with their own measures.

It is a step too far in the nanny state to protect people who do not want it or see the need.

[Flightrite]

But you and I can avoid contact with suspect people. I would have just supported front-line workers and those who wanted help with their own measures.

It is a step too far in the nanny state to protect people who do not want it or see the need.

 

True but we are talking about DA, there's Vic's single biggest problem in all things governance!

[Bruce Tuncks]

gosh, the next thing they might decide is that flying our small planes is too dangerous and so we should be banned from flying.

Please don't suggest this to that premier.

[mnewbery]

It is a step too far in the nanny state to protect people who do not want it or see the need.

More than half the kids enrolled at school in the ACT missed the last two attending days of the first term because parents knew the schools were considering a move to a lockout (which meant remote learning). Messages were being sent around saying that the schools were open and the children were expected to attend, yet only half did. I am not criticizing the parents in this.

 

Looking at RPT aviation, lets say the flights are there and its $80 each way from Melbourne to the Gold Coast.

 

People will want and need to go from home to the airport then a plane, another airport, the hire car, some crappy tourist attraction, the beach ... then reverse the steps before Monday morning. All it will take is one person sneezing at the back of the plane for everyone else to think "maybe this wasn't a good idea".

 

To your point Bruce, legislation be buggered. it will be up to we the people to decide what risks we are willing to accept and we will be deciding on a daily basis once the legislature and law enforcement stop being pricks in public - beaches and cafes are just really easy for plod to get to and be seen at. At the time DA and his mates decide to actually promote not staying home, we will see that people really want to go to the beach and all the rest of it. The pent up demand will be huge. Cinemas, football matches, airline travel, festivals, trade shows, The Royal Easter Show, Farmfest, the dreaded Maleny Folk Festival will be things of the past. They will be sacrificed not because they are dangerous but because not enough people will go to make them financially viable.

[jackc]

Of course but even with a high density the disease can only spread by people coming into contact. A high population density combined with strict distancing rules will produce less transmission than a country with a low density where people associate closely. Other factors include testing rates.

 

There are many examples of countries with high population densities that have done well eg Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, South Korea.

 

I think the evidence would strongly suggest that if we had not curtailed physical contact the transmission rate would have been much greater. A lot is know about the transmission rates. We know the R0 number. We know how it spreads.

 

Australia being surrounded by water should have closed borders sooner, no one out and those wanting to return quarantined at specially set up places away from main stream population, likewise treatment centres not being existing hospitals.

[octave]

Australia being surrounded by water should have closed borders sooner, no one out and those wanting to return quarantined at specially set up places away from main stream population, likewise treatment centres not being existing hospitals.

 

Agreed but I think at the time the only people taking it seriously were epidemiologists and virologists. Some people including some on this forum think there is no problem even now so they certainly would have been bleating if the borders had been closed back when the only known cases were in China.

 

I am not an expert in this field so I can only read and evaluate what the experts think. Unfortunately we live in times where people believe that their lay persons opinion is of a higher quality than people in these fields.

[Bruce Tuncks]

That's why I reckon they should be free to catch the virus Octave. If you choose it and are prepared to risk it, why should you be stopped?

I think you should be free with your own life.

[octave]

That's why I reckon they should be free to catch the virus Octave. If you choose it and are prepared to risk it, why should you be stopped?

I think you should be free with your own life.

 

Generally I agree with the right to endanger one's own life however it is not that simple. We know that people are contagious before they are symptomatic therefore it is difficult to confine the risk solely to that individual.

 

Why should medical staff risk their own health or even lives (and their family) to save people who are too thick or selfish to do what the rest of are doing.

[Bruce Tuncks]

I agree with that Octave. We need to make sure that front-line people are protected . I wouldn't stint on that.

[aro]

I agree with that Octave. We need to make sure that front-line people are protected . I wouldn't stint on that.

 

The best way to protect front line people is to avoid getting infected. Preventing medical staff from being infected is possible (China eventually succeeded, most other countries have not) but seems to require biological warfare levels of PPE which we don't have enough of.

 

The ongoing impact of this virus in countries with large outbreaks is going to be PTSD in the medical staff. They are going to work every day and seeing patient after patient die. They see their colleagues get infected and die. Every day they wonder whether it is going to happen to them. Yesterday there was a report of the suicide of an ER doctor in New York.

 

Protecting front line people requires preventing infections.

[kaz3g]

True but we are talking about DA, there's Vic's single biggest problem in all things governance!

Seems to me that Victoria has handled the pandemic really well. Recreational flying is not illegal but you commit an offence travelling for being away from home without a valid reason.

 

my Aeroclub has written to State and Federal members proposing that travelling from home for the purpose of maintenance and engine health flights should be permitted (Copy of the relevant Lycoming documents provided).

 

Good reaction from both and awaiting a formal response.

 

kaz

[Bruce Tuncks]

Kaz, I reckon South Australia has handled it better than Vic. Less restrictions in SA, but the important ones are there and being supported by the populace.

[kaz3g]

I think SA has done well but you need to factor in population density to get a real comparison. I like the fact he has hung out about any relaxation at this time because a second spike is a real possibility if we do it too early.

 

That said, there are aspects of the shutdown that don’t make sense when examined in isolation. Treating bike-riding and recreational flying differently is one of them.