How has COVID 19 affected your flying or intended flying

[turboplanner]

I go to my hangar and fly, it's a safety requirment to make sure the planes are secure and safe. You are allowed to get in yr car to drive somewhere for excersise, you also are allowed to go meet a friend ( only 1) for a coffee, it's all on the Govt health website, it's the hysteria and fearmongering that has everyone in a panic!

There's always one person one step behind. You're talking about Stage 2, we are now in Stage 3.

Your Premier tried to make it clear when he said "If you can stay at home, you MUST stay at home.

[octave]

" 2017 there were 1,255 deaths due to influenza " over 1 year (I note that you picked a peak year rather than average) Covid 19 was first detected in Australia on the 21st of January. Since isolation the the increase of daily cases has dropped from 25%-30% down to 9%. At this point we have 4860 detected cases and 20 deaths. if we were to go back to the conditions that gave us a 25% per day we would have

 

Day 1 4860 and 20

Day 2 6075 and 25

Day 3 7593 and 31.25

Day 4 9491 and 39.06

Day 5 11863 and 48.75

Day 6 14828 and 60.9

Day 7 18535 and 76.25

 

The totals are 73245 cases and 301 deaths. Now of course we don't have this many cases because we took early action and we reduced the rate to 9% can't be bother to do figures for 9% but you can see the huge difference

 

Yes at the moment 3 months of covid deaths are less than 2017 flu deaths (which was quite a high death year as your link points out). You can't compare 1 years total flu with 3 months covid.

 

A disease has two meaningful figures, its infection rate and its death rate. take ebola, the death rate varies between outbreaks but ranges between between 25% and 90% BUT the number of infections per year are approximately 5000. When comparing Ebola and Covid 19 we see that the first has high mortality rate and low incidence covid has low mortality rate and high incidence.

 

By the way covid 19 does not replace the flu but is in addition, something to think about with regard to the health system given the approach of the flu season.

 

Why do you think you have a better insight into this than the worlds immunologist and virologists?

 

Do you recall that Boris Johnson's policy was to allow to spread to create herd immunity? He backed away from that as the awful consequences became clear.

 

So SplitS what would your strategy be?

 

 

[SplitS]

" 2017 there were 1,255 deaths due to influenza " over 1 year (I note that you picked a peak year rather than average) Covid 19 was first detected in Australia on the 21st of January. Since isolation the the increase of daily cases has dropped from 25%-30% down to 9%. At this point we have 4860 detected cases and 20 deaths. if we were to go back to the conditions that gave us a 25% per day we would have

 

Day 1 4860 and 20

Day 2 6075 and 25

Day 3 7593 and 31.25

Day 4 9491 and 39.06

Day 5 11863 and 48.75

Day 6 14828 and 60.9

Day 7 18535 and 76.25

 

The totals are 73245 cases and 301 deaths. Now of course we don't have this many cases because we took early action and we reduced the rate to 9% can't be bother to do figures for 9% but you can see the huge difference

 

Yes at the moment 3 months of covid deaths are less than 2017 flu deaths (which was quite a high death year as your link points out). You can't compare 1 years total flu with 3 months covid.

 

A disease has two meaningful figures, its infection rate and its death rate. take ebola, the death rate varies between outbreaks but ranges between between 25% and 90% BUT the number of infections per year are approximately 5000. When comparing Ebola and Covid 19 we see that the first has high mortality rate and low incidence covid has low mortality rate and high incidence.

 

By the way covid 19 does not replace the flu but is in addition, something to think about with regard to the health system given the approach of the flu season.

 

Why do you think you have a better insight into this than the worlds immunologist and virologists?

 

Do you recall that Boris Johnson's policy was to allow to spread to create herd immunity? He backed away from that as the awful consequences became clear.

 

So SplitS what would your strategy be?

 

 

The 2017 flu season is a good metric we did not hide inside and destroy peoples lives. It is not the worst flu season(2017) it was one of the worst in the last 10 years.

My tables where death rates per 1000 it has nothing to do with time and the 2017 flu was way worse the flu's R0 number is lower so it moves slower but 17 was more deadly than covid19 look at the number's.

 

I have explained my strategy everyone under 50 go back to work and protect the at risk group. The current strategy is insane.

 

Covid 19 scare is for the mathematical illiterate.

[octave]

The 2017 flu season is a good metric we did not hide inside and destroy peoples lives. It is not the worst flu season(2017) it was one of the worst in the last 10 years.

My tables where death rates per 1000 it has nothing to do with time and the 2017 flu was way worse the flu's R0 number is lower so it moves slower but 17 was more deadly than covid19 look at the number's.

 

I have explained my strategy everyone under 50 go back to work and protect the at risk group. The current strategy is insane.

 

Covid 19 scare is for the mathematical illiterate.

 

So tell me again why you think you know better?

 

So we isolate everyone over 50? So for instance the engineering company my wife worked at would be reduced to the younger engineers but crucially the manager and owner would be absent. Those airliners can be serviced but how many experienced engineering supervisors are over 50. But wait how many workers under 50 live in a household with someone in a vulnerable group, childhood asthma is quite common.

 

So 34% of Australia's population are over 50 and many people over 50 tend be in roles which require more experienced. What would happen if we took every doctor,every specialist, every nurse out of the health system for perhaps a year? What about other industries, take every 50 year senior engineer, senior police officer?

 

Do you think that our hospital can cope better than the US hospital system?

 

Why do you think that pretty every government across the political spectrum are taking this threat seriously. Even Trump who said the US would be up and running by april is changing his mind on that - why?

 

Re your assertion that you and a very few others are the only ones who are mathematically literate, just do a search on the maths of covid spread and look at each site in turn. You have to delve deep to find any sight that supports your assertion.

 

Implications of all the available evidence

The measures put in place to reduce contacts in school and work are helping to control the COVID-19 outbreak by affording health-care systems time to expand and respond. Authorities need to carefully consider epidemiological and modelling evidence before lifting these measures to mitigate the impact of a second peak in cases.

From the Lancet Journal of Medicine The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study

 

How—and When—Will the COVID-19 Pandemic End?

An end in sight? -

After weeks of strict distancing, some parts of the world—including China’s Hubei province, where SARS-CoV-2 was discovered—are now initiating their “exiting strategies,” according to STAT. Here, the pace of the pandemic has dramatically slowed, following a complete lockdown that kept residents from traveling between cities or even strolling down the street.

 

With the exception of those in Wuhan, the city where the virus was first detected last year, Hubei residents can now leave the province, provided their health status is clear. Should the case count stay low, more restrictions are expected to be lifted in the coming weeks—though officials are readying themselves to reimpose measures if necessary.

 

The optimism in Hubei, however, is not universal. In the United States, COVID-19 cases are still skyrocketing by the day, and experts can’t yet forecast when this country’s outbreak will start to fizzle out. For now, many are highlighting success in other countries, and the glimmers of hope emerging in places like Washington state, where new infections are still occurring, but not as rapidly as before, thanks to widespread abidance to distancing.

 

The road to ending this pandemic is an obviously difficult one that relies, in large part, on the collective resilience of hundreds of millions. Strict distancing will not—and cannot—be sustained forever, and recovering from these measures will require careful attention to both physical and mental health.

[turboplanner]

The 2017-18 flu was way worse than covid-19 it's not even close.

For all those who say but vaccine it did not work to well in 17-18

The 2017 flu season killed 1255

The current prediction by the Deputy Chief Medical officer of Australia for Covid-19 remains at 50,000 best case, 150,000 worst case.

It's too early to be making sweeping statements since the transmissions within the Australian population have just started, and the peak is expected this month or May.

There is some cautious optimism given that our stepped isolation programme has worked so well, testing in the past few days went from 2,000 to 4,000 to 100,000 and there is now a massive testing team to track down the spread of the virus, and we've had time to massively increase the number of ICU and Ventilators, but both State and Commonwealth CMOs are pointing out that, like fighting a bushfire, getting it under control, and a strong wind springing up, this virus is capable of massive flaring.

Without a doubt the actions taken to date have bought us time and that time has radically improved our current situation.

[Mike Gearon]

The 2017 flu season killed 1255

The current prediction by the Deputy Chief Medical officer of Australia for Covid-19 remains at 50,000 best case, 150,000 worst case.

It's too early to be making sweeping statements since the transmissions within the Australian population have just started, and the peak is expected this month or May.

There is some cautious optimism given that our stepped isolation programme has worked so well, testing in the past few days went from 2,000 to 4,000 to 100,000 and there is now a massive testing team to track down the spread of the virus, and we've had time to massively increase the number of ICU and Ventilators, but both State and Commonwealth CMOs are pointing out that, like fighting a bushfire, getting it under control, and a strong wind springing up, this virus is capable of massive flaring.

Without a doubt the actions taken to date have bought us time and that time has radically improved our current situation.

It’s really encouraging. I’m looking in from Taiwan and dreading seeing the daily Australian figures. Hopeful it reduces now. For the mathematically literate checking on Coronavirus Update (Live): 860,927 Cases and 42,364 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer the figures show that countries that are overwhelmed such as Italy are losing around 10%. Countries with robust health care systems and smaller outbreaks (Taiwan for example) have a very low death rate. It’s also related to time with the illness. The young doctor in Wuhan who raised the alarm died from corona virus some weeks after contracting it. Unfortunately USA is an example of early days and being overwhelmed. Hoping the USA can crank their big industrial machine and get the equipment out to save lives. Drugs, breathing assist devices, protective equipment and test kits. A deluge of fast test kits. Australia is still well behind based in last news report I saw. Should be able to get a test if you’re not well. Not if you meet stringent criteria.

 

For those advocating herd immunity or exposure of young health care workers that particular death (the Wuhan doctor) shows you’d be killing some of them. A single death is obviously to be avoided. Let alone whole groups of deaths.

 

Taiwan might be in trouble right now. Tomorrow is tomb sweeping. My staff are leaving early to travel around the island to family homes for a 4 day holiday. It’s the same all over Taiwan. Yes, gatherings are limited. However, complacency is creeping in. It’s not a major concern to have groups gathering. Taiwan also has problems with its success. Taiwanese are coming home from UK, Australia, USA etc. They have to observe voluntary 14 day home quarantine. It is a big fine of broken. Some 50k AUD and that’s a few years wages for most. They also have phone monitoring and government visits to check their health.

 

Hope all stay safe.

[onetrack]

America is behind the 8-ball with the COVID-19 virus, because they refused to use the virus test that the rest of the world was using. So they tried to make their own, it didn't work properly, and they lost at least 2 weeks trying to do this.

 

The Americans provide an excellent recipe for how to completely bXXXs-up the testing regime, by adopting the wrong approach after the virus was found in serious numbers inside the country - then by stuffing up the testing process.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/us-coronavirus-testing-problems-timeline-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

[SplitS]

The 2017 flu season killed 1255

The current prediction by the Deputy Chief Medical officer of Australia for Covid-19 remains at 50,000 best case, 150,000 worst case.

.

 

He has been walking it back watch his latest public announcement's he talks about isolating the over 70's. Maybe he is reading my posts :)

The UK's medical officer has walked back his 500,000 number and now say's this UK chief medical adviser: COVID-19 death rate may be 'much below' 1%

 

Another article I notice you lock down totalitarian cheer squad don't post link's here's another one.

https://reason.com/2020/03/23/two-reasons-the-worst-case-scenarios-for-covid-19-seem-unrealistic

 

I am confused why most people cannot understand simple math and want to revert to "but mhaaa feelings". Or take 1 case and make that an example. I know of a case where the 2017 flu killed an infant and made another very very sick in my local town. However one or two examples is not a good reason to lock down and destroy the economy.

 

Covid-19 is slightly less dangerous than our light planes.

[octave]

Covid 19 scare for the mathematical illiterate.

 

 

Perhaps you should explain the maths more clearly'

 

My point is this a small percentage of a large number is still a large number. It is not just the number of people who die it is the number who are hospitalized and those who require intensive care. added to the normal hospitalizations.

 

Again why do you think you are so much smarter than the nations medics virologists and epidemiologists.

 

Could you answer this question. Why is it that hospitals in Italy Spain and now the UK having trouble coping and are you convinced that this definitely wont wont happen here?

[onetrack]

Comparing deaths from light aircraft crashes, to deaths from a highly contagious viral pandemic, shows your maths grades at school probably didn't get you past 4th grade.

[Guy s]

Could you answer this question. Why is it that hospitals in Italy Spain and now the UK having trouble coping and are you convinced that this definitely wont wont happen here?

 

Countries the size of Tasmania with population 50-60 million people in a small area and the higher age bracket probably doesn't help in trying to contain and control the virus.

[M61A1]

Again why do you think you are so much smarter than the nations medics virologists and epidemiologists.

Perhaps "smarter" is not the correct word....Sceptical would be reasonable, considering these specialist are from organisations run by a government with a poor management record, but bear in mind I'm not talking Liberal, Labour or greens.

The Australian government, not matter who runs the show have generally not been the sort people you would go to if you really needed something well organised. Not to mention that the current safety theme in this country is "Safety at all costs", rather than effective risk management.

I personally think proper quarantine of all travellers early in the situation would have been more effective, because now they're just wrecking the place trying to catch up. They sat on their hands because they were worried about offending a few people. Only time will tell whether the cost was worth it.

 

For those who think talking about the monetary side is inappropriate. It's not just a piece of paper or metal, it's a measure of the resources you have at your disposal. You may not like the wealthy people, but they are the ones paying for most of the stuff that most people get from their government. If that goes away who's going to pay for your healthcare and pension then?

There does come a time when effort exceeds gain.

[Flying Binghi]

I wonder how many die from having the bone pointed at them..?

 

“...Israel Hayom conducted an investigation which revealed that all 21 people who have died from coronavirus in Israel have had various conditions, ranging from diabetes to cancer or autoimmune disease.

 

The Hebrew daily reported that 18 of the 21 people who have died of coronavirus in Israel at the time had diabetes, eight had hypertension and seven suffered from cardiovascular disease (such as heart failure or peripheral vascular disease). Five patients were diagnosed with either dementia, a brain event or cognitive decline, and four had a lung disease. Other health conditions included liver disease, autoimmune disease and cancer - each in one patient...”

 

https://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Which-common-background-diseases-Israelis-who-died-of-coronavirus-had-623163

 

 

 

 

.

[Flying Binghi]

As more data comes outa China it would appear that the China virus didn’t cause much of a change to the annual deaths from colds/flu.

 

A big factor in the annual death rates is smog...

 

“...Concerning Wuhan pneumonia, the formation of haze is a critical issue. The formation of haze mainly depends on three factors. First, the increase of static wind in the horizontal direction, which is not conducive to the diffusion and dilution of atmospheric pollutants. Second, the emergence of a temperature inversion layer in the vertical direction, which makes it difficult for pollutants to move upwards and are blocked at low altitudes and near the ground. Third, the increase of suspended particulates in the air. These three conditions are all available during the high incidence period of Wuhan pneumonia...

 

...According to data released by the Wuhan Bureau of Ecology and Environment, the moment when a large number of pneumonia emerged in Wuhan was during the period from January 19, 2020 to January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan air during this period was at the stage of serious pollution. The indices are all higher than 100. This means that the outbreak period of Wuhan pneumonia coincides with the severe period of air pollution, and this is one of the reasons.

 

The second supporting reason is that the high incidence areas of Wuhan pneumonia coincide with the severe air pollution areas. We observed by randomly taking one day as a sample, and found out that the area with the highest level of air pollution in Wuhan Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market. This shows that even in “normal weather”, the air pollution in the seafood market area was the relatively worst area in Wuhan. The index was usually in the range of 140-160...”

 

https://www.eurasiareview.com/01022020-polluted-air-could-be-an-important-cause-of-wuhan-pneumonia-oped/

 

 

 

 

.

[octave]

Perhaps "smarter" is not the correct word....Sceptical would be reasonable, considering these specialist are from organisations run by a government

 

There seems to be agreement not just from government scientists.

 

. Not to mention that the current safety theme in this country is "Safety at all costs", rather than effective risk management.

 

I think that various scenarios have been modeled. I also suspect that the economy is considered. If we look at China where the infection rate has dropped markedly it is now getting the economy up and running. Other scenarios may have a longer path back to normality.

 

I personally think proper quarantine of all travellers early in the situation would have been more effective, because now they're just wrecking the place trying to catch up. They sat on their hands because they were worried about offending a few people. Only time will tell whether the cost was worth it.

 

 

I agree that it was mishandled in the early stages but not because the government did not wish to offend but a failure to appreciate the warnings from the people who are expert in this field. I personally became aware of this disease from an article in New Scientist in December. This article pretty much predicted what is happening now in the US. I dismissed it as one of those diseases that is only a problem for people in those other countries.

Having mishandled it at the beginning has narrowed the available options we have now.

 

 

The Hebrew daily reported that 18 of the 21 people who have died of coronavirus in Israel at the time had diabetes, eight had hypertension and seven suffered from cardiovascular disease (such as heart failure or peripheral vascular disease). Five patients were diagnosed with either dementia, a brain event or cognitive decline, and four had a lung disease. Other health conditions included liver disease, autoimmune disease and cancer - each in one patient...”

 

The article also states that about a third of the population fall into the vulnerable category. We could only isolate these people but remember that this would also involve isolating the people who live with these people. The number would be far greater than a third. How well would the economy function if we take every 50 year old and those younger but with high blood pressure etc. for a minimum of 18 months or until a vaccine is developed. The road that most countries have gone down to greater or lesser extent is containment and getting the infection rate down to a manageable rate. We may all get it eventually but how good the treatment we get will be determined by the capacity of our hospitals and medical workers.

 

In my opinion no one here has presented any convincing evidence of a better way than containment and managing the infection rate. No one has presented a scenario that spares the economy. What people have presented is articles from Breitbart or from obscure papers like the Jerusalem Post even Womens Health magazine. Also cherry picked snippets of evidence. I have always attempted to post links to Lancet and other respected authorities which I know almost no one here reads.

 

The fact is that governments of all persuasions have accepted the evidence. I believe that we in Australia are seeing the early stage gaining control of the infection rate unlike some other countries. As the infection rate falls to an acceptable level our hospitals will be able to cope with the covid cases and the flu cases that will be coming along soon as well as the normal load of illness and accidents.

 

The economy will recover, it wont be easy or quick but it will recover. The economy would be damaged under any scenario.

 

This is the way we are dealing with it at the moment so we may as well dry our eyes and get on with it.

[octave]

.According to data released by the Wuhan Bureau of Ecology and Environment, the moment when a large number of pneumonia emerged in Wuhan was during the period from January 19, 2020 to January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan air during this period was at the stage of serious pollution. The indices are all higher than 100. This means that the outbreak period of Wuhan pneumonia coincides with the severe period of air pollution, and this is one of the reasons.

 

The second supporting reason is that the high incidence areas of Wuhan pneumonia coincide with the severe air pollution areas. We observed by randomly taking one day as a sample, and found out that the area with the highest level of air pollution in Wuhan Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market. This shows that even in “normal weather”, the air pollution in the seafood market area was the relatively worst area in Wuhan. The index was usually in the range of 140-160...”

 

https://www.eurasiareview.com/01022020-polluted-air-could-be-an-important-cause-of-wuhan-pneumonia-oped/

 

 

so no Covid problem in the US?

[Flying Binghi]

so no Covid problem in the US?

 

Hmmm...

 

You tell me..?

 

“...Intended Use

This product is intended for the detection of 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). The detection result of this product is only for clinical reference, and it should not be used as the only evidence for clinical diagnosis and treatment.

 

Limitations

1. The detection result of this product is only for clinical reference, and it should not be used as the only evidence for clinical diagnosis and treatment. The clinical management of patients should be considered in combination with their symptoms/signs, history, other laboratory tests and treatment responses. The detection results should not be directly used as the evidence for clinical diagnosis, and are only for the reference of clinicians.

 

2. The detection result can be affected by operations, including specimen collection, storage and transportation. False negative result may occur if there is any mistakes in the operation. Cross contamination during specimen treatment may lead to false positive result.

 

3. The detected target sequences of this products are the conservative region of 2019-nCoV's ORF1ab gene and N gene. However, target sequence variations may lead to false negative result...”

 

 

https://www.creative-diagnostics.com/sars-cov-2-coronavirus-multiplex-rt-qpcr-kit-277854-457.htm

 

 

 

 

 

.

[Flying Binghi]

Meanwhile, back in Italy during the 2018 cold and flu season the health system were having problems...

 

(Via google translate)

 

“...Milan, intensive therapies to collapse for the flu: already 48 seriously ill many operations postponed

 

Difficulty to welcome new patients, suspended bookings for resuscitation beds intended to accommodate the sick after operations, overtime (free) shifts for doctors and nurses recalled from vacation. Doctors' Appeal to the Region

 

Record numbers. Complications of influenza, especially pneumonia, send resuscitations into crisis: 48 cases of seriously ill patients hospitalized from Christmas to today in intensive care of Polyclinic, San Raffaele, San Gerardo di Monza and St. Matthew of Pavia, the hospitals of Lombardy for the use of the Ecmo, the machine that replaces the lungs. Problems overlap: difficulties in welcoming new patients, postponement of scheduled surgeries and suspended bookings for resuscitation beds intended to accommodate sick people after operations, overtime shifts (free) for doctors and nurses recalled from their holidays. A serious situation that prompts doctors to ask for the help of the Health Council led by Giulio Gallera and to regret the choice made by the Minister of Health Beatrice Lorenzin not to allocate more funds for the Italian network of The Ecmo (finished the 20 million euros financed in 2009 by the then Minister Ferruccio Fazio).

 

Giuseppe Foti, who leads the Emergency Emergency of the San Gerardo di Monza, reckons: "Three patients admitted until 22 December, 6 from 22 to 31 December, 8 from January 1 to today. The problem is serious. From this week we are forced to suspend bed reservations in intensive care for surgical patients with scheduled interventions." Federico Pappalardo, head of intensive care at San Raffaele, admits: "Today other non-urgent operations will be skipped." Giacomo Grasselli, Medical Director of Resuscitation at the Polyclinic, is in the same situation: "The risk of postponement of elective surgeries for patients in need of postoperative care in intensive care is a problem on the agenda." Giorgio Antonio Iotti, head of intensive medicine at St. Matthew of Pavia, extends his arms: "Patients with severe pneumonia and major complications caused by the flu virus are occupying as many as a quarter of our 21 beds."

 

In order to overcome the problem, according to the doctors, the intervention of lombardy region is urgent: Pirellone is called into question because today it has lacked a recognized coordination, even economically, of the work of the four hospitals. Alberto Zangrillo, director of the Emergency Emergency Department of San Raffaele, attacks: "The truth is that Minister Lorenzin did not bother at national level to refinance the project, putting Lombardy, a region on the The work of the other regions is also unloaded for the high level of centres.' Grasselli insists: "The centralization of patients who need Ecmo literally saves the lives of patients who would otherwise die." And the thoughts of the doctors, gathered on Monday at the Polyclinic to examine what to do, goes to the new mother who risked her life two days after giving birth, in early January, for a very serious respiratory failure followed by the flu and now in good condition thanks Ecmo. The same happened to a little girl, who became heavily aggravated as a result of fever and coughing. The worst was feared for her, too: "But our surgery with the machine that replaces her lungs saved her." A great commitment, a huge effort, which now make the institutions ask for recognition. To save more lives.

 

Meanwhile, the blood emergency is widening, due to the flu virus that prevents many donors from going to the collection centers. After the appeal of the Polyclinic, the virologist Roberto Burioni also reports difficulties at San Raffaele, with surgical operations suspended due to the lack of blood. And it invites citizens to contribute...”

 

https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/18_gennaio_10/milano-terapie-intensive-collasso-l-influenza-gia-48-malati-gravi-molte-operazioni-rinviate-c9dc43a6-f5d1-11e7-9b06-fe054c3be5b2.shtml?refresh_ce-cp

 

 

 

Let’s add hysteria and panic to the system and see how it copes..?

 

 

 

 

.

[Flying Binghi]

And in Germany...

 

“...Hendrik Streeck is probably the virologist who has seen most patients in Germany. An interview about new Covid-19 symptoms, rapid tests and too high death tolls..

 

..How do you explain the low death toll in Germany compared to Italy, for example?

 

I am not at all surprised by that. In Italy, only the very difficult cases have been tested. For example, the current study from Shenzhen also found that children are just as likely to become infected with the pathogen as adults, but they develop only mild or no symptoms. According to the study, 91 percent of Covid-19s only go through mild or moderate symptoms, then Italians initially focused only on the remaining nine percent. In addition, the dead are also subsequently tested on Sars-CoV-2. In China, too, the death toll initially skyrocketed, but not the number of infections, because it also focused on the deaths. Now it is the other way around, because much more is being tested in China...”

 

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/gesellschaft/gesundheit/coronavirus/neue-corona-symptome-entdeckt-virologe-hendrik-streeck-zum-virus-16681450.html?printPagedArticle=true#pageIndex_2

 

 

So, if yer only test the sick yer get a high death rate percentage...

 

 

NUF fer now, the day beckons..?

 

 

.

[turboplanner]

I've got a feeling the day's going to very sorry it didn't keep its hands to itself.

[Mike Gearon]

Testing number is a good point when looking country by country.

 

Noted the following highlights from WSJ and The Age today.

 

Japan is doing limited testing. Even the prime minister questions this.

 

Sample quantities of 2,000 people in given European communities are being tested to see “what the iceberg looks like”. That seems a very smart move.

 

Italy and Spain in such serious trouble traced back to a single football match in Feb. 35% of the Spanish team/ crew came home with virus. That’s a shocking number!

 

China is busy polishing the turd they gave the world with the hope of spinning a different narrative.

 

Germany. Some 60% polled last week didn’t think quarantine was something they’d bother too much with and some 40% thought the virus wasn’t a big deal.....hopefully that’s changed this week and it does reflect the west’s attitude up until very recently.

 

Thought I’d write that out while still retained. It’ll all leak out in the next few hours ??

[octave]

Milan, intensive therapies to collapse for the flu: already 48 seriously ill many operations postponed

 

Meanwhile as of today in Italy 13155 deaths which includes 60 doctors.

 

You seem to think that when comparing flu and covid that they are mutually exclusive. Australia is entering the flu season. Flu season does tax the medical system so adding a huge influx of covid cases only makes it more difficult.

 

Yes most people who die are older or have pre existing conditions. The notion that people with preexisting conditions would dies soon any way si nonsense. Many 50 years olds with elevated blood pressure are not on deaths door and could expect many more years of useful life.

 

 

I would absolutely love it if we could follow the Singapore model but we did not start early enough. I suspect we will move closer to the Singapore model and more target isolation but we have to do things once the growth has been slowed.

 

It appears that in Australia we are starting to see a moderating of new infections. I would rather live in Australia with our response than in the US

[onetrack]

It's pretty obvious F.B. is following the Rush Limbaugh line of reasoning as regards the COVID-19 virus.

 

I guess we'll soon be hearing the line, that only the lazy and the poor get this virus, so no problem there.

 

Rush is saying, "It's just a cold, what's the panic and hysteria? The economy is more important than just a few lives!"

 

https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/rush-limbaugh-economy-coronavirus_n_5e845a88c5b6a1bb76504f78?ri18n=true

[turboplanner]

Testing number is a good point when looking country by country.

 

Noted the following highlights from WSJ and The Age today.

 

Japan is doing limited testing. Even the prime minister questions this.

 

Sample quantities of 2,000 people in given European communities are being tested to see “what the iceberg looks like”. That seems a very smart move.

 

Italy and Spain in such serious trouble traced back to a single football match in Feb. 35% of the Spanish team/ crew came home with virus. That’s a shocking number!

 

China is busy polishing the turd they gave the world with the hope of spinning a different narrative.

 

Germany. Some 60% polled last week didn’t think quarantine was something they’d bother too much with and some 40% thought the virus wasn’t a big deal.....hopefully that’s changed this week and it does reflect the west’s attitude up until very recently.

 

Thought I’d write that out while still retained. It’ll all leak out in the next few hours ??

I'd suggest you go on Australia.gov.au and catch up with what our strategy is, and also the Victorian Government site, and you can see the cases, the ages, the deaths (still very low) and the policies, and also the Coomonwealth and Victorian Health sites.

 

We now have a huge team on tracing downstream from a confirmed case and upstream to see where it came from, and isolating all those links. We are at least a year away from a tested vaccine which will knock out this virus, so the key is separating so you don't get it. If you dopn't get it you won't spread it.

 

Our Chief Medical Officer has explained there's not much point in hanging off overseas talk because the virus entered each country in a different way and was able to multiply in a different way.

 

We have just started to enter the "local Population transfer" phase which will test our rules and in about 4 weeks we'll know how we went (2 weeks symptom to test+2 weeks ilolation to clear).

 

We were following the South Korean testing regime; in the past two weeks, we've gone from testing 2000, to 4000, to 100,000 and climbing, so things are looking good.

 

Twiggy Forest has donated $160 million for urgent equipment, flew 1 million masks in from China last night and will be expanding the to include ventilators.

 

However it still sounds like you're safer where you are.

[facthunter]

He hasn't donated them. They are for sale. Nev