How has COVID 19 affected your flying or intended flying

[Bruce Tuncks]

I know a vegan who has mental health problems. Without knowing more, I can't say for sure that his diet has anything to do with his problems, but I suspect that it is the cause.

[turboplanner]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I am starting to think shutting down the economy and locking everyone down is a really bad idea.

This thing is only slightly more deadly than the flu if you are under 50. The elderly and health compromised should be self isolated and assisted but shutting down the country for a virus that is around 0.2% fatal (under 50's) (the flu is around 0.1) is really dumb and going to cause far more damage. Watch what happens to the suicide rate rate, bankruptcy's the destruction of small business some of which are never coming back this has become a huge over reaction. I also think the longer this goes the greater chance of social instability which is a real risk here the longer and harder the government locks the population down the greater the chance of problems.

100 people died in Australia from flu in 2019

50,000 <150,000 for Australia is still the official estimate from the Deputy Chief Medical Officer of Australia.

[turboplanner]

50,000 deaths. That suggests more ppl will die from cancer. Mind you, if you were dying from cancer but catch COVID19, they will count you as a virus death rather than the cancer that was going to get you anyway.

That's a good visualisation. Australia's 2019 cancer deaths added up to 49,640, so if you visualise the cancer deaths among your friends and relative, Corona virus is predicted to be about the same.

Statistics record you dying of what caused you to die, so even if you have been given just six months to live and die in a car crash in seven months the cause of death is a car crash.

 

I ran some figures based on 80,000 deaths (which was based on the Deputy CHO 50,000 < 100,000 plus comments by the Victorian CMO this weekend, plus the fact that we are not on lockdown to produce this very approximate visualisation.

 

There are still huge variables: to come, so this is just based on the situation now.

[SplitS]

100 people died in Australia from flu in 2019

50,000 <150,000 for Australia is still the official estimate from the Deputy Chief Medical Officer of Australia.

The deaths will mainly be over 70's which could be self isolated and supported.

2019 was a particularly mild strain 2017 is a better figure to use. Also it depends on the way the deaths are reported if some one has comorbidity s what killed them? In the case's where covid-19 is involved it is blamed.

Look up what happened to Italy during the 2017 flu season makes for a very interesting comparison.

If we tracked the 2017 flu like we are tracking covid with the same kind of media beat up it would be just as easy to induced the same kind of panic.

The numbers are now fairly clear under 50's (0.2) fatality rate a bad flu season (0.1). We have never considered a national lock down for the flu and for good reason.

[SplitS]

If you are between 75 - 85 your death rate each year is around 15% per year anyways. The more I look at the stats the more idiotic I see this lock down is.

[turboplanner]

The deaths will mainly be over 70's which could be self isolated and supported.

2019 was a particularly mild strain 2017 is a better figure to use. Also it depends on the way the deaths are reported if some one has comorbidity s what killed them? In the case's where covid-19 is involved it is blamed.

Look up what happened to Italy during the 2017 flu season makes for a very interesting comparison.

If we tracked the 2017 flu like we are tracking covid with the same kind of media beat up it would be just as easy to induced the same kind of panic.

The numbers are now fairly clear under 50's (0.2) fatality rate a bad flu season (0.1). We have never considered a national lock down for the flu and for good reason.

I can understand how some people will be grasping at straws.

[turboplanner]

If you are between 75 - 85 your death rate each year is around 15% per year anyways. The more I look at the stats the more idiotic I see this lock down is.

Just at present and just in Australia the whole concept has changed with the first hospital cases with ages starting at 25. At the end of the epidemic, the average age may have moved up to the elderly but right now no one knows, the admissions are the admissions.

 

A better way to visualise the effect on 75 - 85s is there will be a pull-forward effect; all of us are going to die of something, but this virus will take many before their time.

[octave]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I am starting to think shutting down the economy and locking everyone down is a really bad idea.

This thing is only slightly more deadly than the flu if you are under 50. The elderly and health compromised should be self isolated and assisted but shutting down the country for a virus that is around 0.2% fatal (under 50's) (the flu is around 0.1) is really dumb and going to cause far more damage. Watch what happens to the suicide rate rate, bankruptcy's the destruction of small business some of which are never coming back this has become a huge over reaction. I also think the longer this goes the greater chance of social instability which is a real risk here the longer and harder the government locks the population down the greater the chance of problems.

 

 

The video I posted in #117 covered this but I guess no one actually watched it. Yes the death rate is not huge but it is compressed into a short period of time Approximately 20% who will get it will require a hospital bed and between 9% and 11% will need to be in an intensive care unit. This was the case in italy. I heard in interview with an Italian Doctor who was having to decide who got the ventilator a fit 60 year old or a 30 year old with high blood pressure and a young family.

 

One of the most numerous groups of infected people are health workers themselves. Often the people who work in ICUs

 

 

Earlier when i posted a link about the young health worker who died someone suggested that they should not have been working due to their asthma. Around 8% of the population suffer from asthma and this also includes health workers. How many doctors are in the older age group? How many health workers have diabetes or hypertension? All of these people would need to protect themselves by not working.

 

Because Australia is a few weeks behind some other countries we are not guessing at what is coming we KNOW what is coming. We can follow the trajectory of Hong Kong or South Korea who tackled it hard an early or we can more like Italy, Spain, or even like the richest country in the world the US which now has the highest number of infections and deaths exceeding China and Italy)

 

Even Trump is now considering a quarantine on New York, New Jersey and Connecticut' Coronavirus: Donald Trump considering quarantine of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut

 

Do you doubting folk honestly believe that the worlds epidemiologist and virologist and medical professionals have suddenly succumbed to a mass delusion? Do you think the governments of the world want their economies to suffer for no reason?

 

Clearly you think your knowledge is superior than the knowledge of the professionals who work in this field. You really don't know much about this subject and neither do I. We all have access to vast amounts of information via the net. However not all information is equal. I get information from The Lancet Journal of Medicine or New Scientist or the CDC and some of you post links from Womens Health.

 

 

At them moment in the US companies such as Tesla, Ford, GE, Dyson and more are being pressed into service to build respirators, I guess some of you feel that this is a waste of time and money.

 

 

If in the next few weeks if any of us has a heart attack or a stroke or falls of a ladder or has a car accident we would expect that we will get a bed in a hospital should we need it. For the first time in my lifetime this may not be guaranteed if we go down the Itall, Spain and perhaps US route.

 

None of you have the required knowledge or spent enough time looking at the data (and neither have I)

[Flying Binghi]

Hmmm... me-thinks some have had the bone pointed at them so believe they is done for..?

 

 

 

 

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[Flying Binghi]

Seems some think the worlds health ‘experts’ should be listened to..?

 

Me, I’m a bit picky about WHO I take advice from.

 

Help get the idiot in chief sacked...

 

“...On January 23rd, 2020. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declines to declare China virus outbreak as a global health emergency...”

 

https://www.change.org/p/united-nations-call-for-the-resignation-of-tedros-adhanom-ghebreyesus-who-director-general

 

 

 

 

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[turboplanner]

Hmmm... me-thinks some have had the bone pointed at them so believe they is done for..?

Bullsh!t

[octave]

Hmmm... me-thinks some have had the bone pointed at them so believe they is done for..?

 

 

 

 

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Some questions for you. Do you believe that the hospital system will cope with the large numbers of hospitalizations that we know are coming from experience from overseas? How many ICU beds are there in Australia and in your state? Do you acknowledge that if you or your children/grandchildren wife etc should become ill from any disease or have a serious accident then ICU beds may not be available.

 

Of course some people are in a panic but some perhaps through fear are in denial.

 

Perhaps you could give me your predictions about how this will play out in Australia, then we can compare your predictions with what actually happens. This way we can see if you are as knowledgeable and educated on this subject as you seem to think.

I mean lets face until recently you though it was a flu virus.

[Bruce Tuncks]

Once I read that in parts of europe, it is acceptable for the death certificate of somebody over 70 to list " old age " as the cause of death.

One result of this is that they have fewer heart attack deaths, thus giving rise to the "mediterranean diet " idea.

Is this all true?

[turboplanner]

Once I read that in parts of europe, it is acceptable for the death certificate of somebody over 70 to list " old age " as the cause of death.

One result of this is that they have fewer heart attack deaths, thus giving rise to the "mediterranean diet " idea.

Is this all true?

Could be; In Australia, Scotland, England, and US sometimes it can be and sometimes not. If you spend time checking ancestry you quickly find there are the family versions of Great grandfather's death and there are what's written on the Death Certificate.

Edited March 28, 2020 by turboplanner

[Marty_d]

This is great! I didn't know how "ignore" worked before, because I've never used it. However since seeing some particularly asinine comment from a certain person who will remain unnamed, I bunged them on "ignore" and now everything they write is blanked out.

 

You guys keep arguing with him/her if you like - I don't believe they're going to write anything coherent or of value, so happy to keep them ignored.

[Flying Binghi]

??

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[SplitS]

The video I posted in #117 covered this but I guess no one actually watched it. Yes the death rate is not huge but it is compressed into a short period of time Approximately 20% who will get it will require a hospital bed and between 9% and 11% will need to be in an intensive care unit. This was the case in italy. I heard in interview with an Italian Doctor who was having to decide who got the ventilator a fit 60 year old or a 30 year old with high blood pressure and a young family.

 

So does the flu have a look at Italy in 2017. Very similar to now but know one was jumping up and down. The flu also kills young healthy people at almost the same rate. why is this so special and beat up? The numbers don't lie.

 

During the same monthly period March 2020 over 250 people committed suicide most of them young equates to about 0.2 per 1000. Same period only 14 died from covid19 and almost all had co-morbidity's.

If this destruction of the economy and lock down bumps the suicide rate even a little ( resessions and depressions always increase the rate) then the whole lock down will have produced way more harm than good.

Also notice there are now riots in china and USA around the lock downs in Australia "out of towner's " are getting their tyres slashed civilization is way more fragile than most people think.

[octave]

This is great! I didn't know how "ignore" worked before, because I've never used it. However since seeing some particularly asinine comment from a certain person who will remain unnamed, I bunged them on "ignore" and now everything they write is blanked out.

 

You guys keep arguing with him/her if you like - I don't believe they're going to write anything coherent or of value, so happy to keep them ignored.

 

Probably good advice in terms of mental health. What keeps me involved (at least for the moment) is not because I think I can change their mind but there are probably other forum members who are sitting on the fence not knowing what to think. I would hate them to believe the self proclaimed experts here.

 

I just implore people to use the resources they have to look for information. Beware of confirmation bias. If 9 sources provide information one way, and if there work appears to come from rigorous sources and has references don't just sift though looking for the 1 source that confirms your existing beliefs.

 

CDC, Lancet, numerous other well respected science sources or FB who thought it was flu and can't spell covid.

[Flying Binghi]

Some questions for you. Do you believe that the hospital system will cope with the large numbers of hospitalizations that we know are coming from experience from overseas? How many ICU beds are there in Australia and in your state? Do you acknowledge that if you or your children/grandchildren wife etc should become ill from any disease or have a serious accident then ICU beds may not be available.

 

Of course some people are in a panic but some perhaps through fear are in denial.

 

Perhaps you could give me your predictions about how this will play out in Australia, then we can compare your predictions with what actually happens. This way we can see if you are as knowledgeable and educated on this subject as you seem to think.

I mean lets face until recently you though it was a flu virus.

 

Hmmm... so what makes yer think I thought it were the flu ?..?

 

Heh, before the great toilet paper panic I’d moved my main base outa the city and am now based again out bush..?

 

 

Octave, re all the ‘problems’ you have commented on about our health care system, there ain’t much we can do about it now. We should have been ready for it years ago.

 

It’s all and good getting in a panic about being sick though for many it is inevitable unless yer lock yourself up away from others - If because of yer age or health concerns then that is your responsibility to do.

 

As most people will be minimally affected by the China virus what most people need to do is get back to their work or the economy will compleatly collapse.

 

Think the fights over toilet paper are bad, well then yer better get ready for deadly fights over food. Unless people are at work organising and processing food, organising and processing (eg, truck repairs) the transport system, organising and processing the transport system maintenance organisations (eg spare parts), organising and processing the shop system, organising and processing the wages system..... and so-on.......

 

 

 

 

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[octave]

So does the flu have a look at Italy in 2017. Very similar to now but know one was jumping up and down. The flu also kills young healthy people at almost the same rate. why is this so special and beat up? The numbers don't lie.

 

During the same monthly period March 2020 over 250 people committed suicide most of them young equates to about 0.2 per 1000. Same period only 14 died from covid19 and almost all had co-morbidity's.

If this destruction of the economy and lock down bumps the suicide rate even a little ( resessions and depressions always increase the rate) then the whole lock down will have produced way more harm than good.

Also notice there are now riots in china and USA around the lock downs in Australia "out of towner's " are getting their tyres slashed civilization is way more fragile than most people think.

 

Flu or car accidents or suicide kills x many people we are not talking about replacing one source of death or illness with another we are talking about adding extra deaths on top of those things. If, and I am using invented figures but I am sure you will get the point. If 500 people die in a given country per year our hospital systems can cope because these deaths are spread out over the whole year. The number people who will require intensive care if we just let it rip may be an equal number to car crash victims but compressed into a few weeks. On top of that the covid case are not replacing the car crashes they are as the car crashes.

 

The economic consequences of letting it rip as bleak as spreading out the infection rate. If every person over 60 or with hypertension or asthma self isolates and their regular contacts the economy will still take a huge hit. Most police would be younger than 60 although at the top I would suggest would be around that age group. Many of the most senior and experience doctors and specialists would also fall into that category.

[octave]

Your own words

 

A look at who actually dies from the Chinese flu...

 

It’s all and good getting in a panic about being sick though for many it is inevitable unless yer lock yourself up away from others - If because of yer age or health concerns then that is your responsibility to do.

 

 

I agree but it is also my responsibility not to endanger others. It is also my responsibility not to overwhelm the medical system. I am self isolating because I neither want to catch Covid 19 nor pass it on nor clog up an ICU bed.

 

Think the fights over toilet paper are bad, well then yer better get ready for deadly fights over food. Unless people are at work organising and processing food, organising and processing (eg, truck repairs) the transport system, organising and processing the transport system maintenance organisations (eg spare parts), organising and processing the shop system, organising and processing the wages system..... and so-on.......

 

 

These things are still occuring, essential services are still going on. Countries like South Korea, Hong Kong Singapore are coming out the other side, they took firm action early.

 

How are Italy Spain and the US doing?

[SplitS]

Flu or car accidents or suicide kills x many people we are not talking about replacing one source of death or illness with another we are talking about adding extra deaths on top of those things. If, and I am using invented figures but I am sure you will get the point. If 500 people die in a given country per year our hospital systems can cope because these deaths are spread out over the whole year. The number people who will require intensive care if we just let it rip may be an equal number to car crash victims but compressed into a few weeks. On top of that the covid case are not replacing the car crashes they are as the car crashes.

 

The economic consequences of letting it rip as bleak as spreading out the infection rate. If every person over 60 or with hypertension or asthma self isolates and their regular contacts the economy will still take a huge hit. Most police would be younger than 60 although at the top I would suggest would be around that age group. Many of the most senior and experience doctors and specialists would also fall into that category.

Millions of people have lost there job's and businesses this will bump the suicide rate. Its a very simple cause and effect. It's exactly what we are doing replacing one death for another with this lock down. Ressession job losses = increase suicide rate.

 

I don't disagree with your assessment of the over 60's thats why I think it should be a targeted lock down. Over 60's self isolate and be supported. Let it rip thru the rest of the population on the current numbers it will be like a bad flu season for anyone under 50.

Its how Sweden is handeling it so we are going to find out.

[Flying Binghi]

Something to look forward to...

 

“...A number of youths in southern Spain attacked a convoy of ambulances carrying elderly patients with coronavirus, throwing rocks at the vehicles.

 

The attack took place in the city of La Línea de la Concepción, which lies on the Spanish border with the British territory of Gibraltar, and saw the youths prevent the passage of the convoy of medical vehicles that were carrying 28 elderly infected with the Wuhan coronavirus...”

 

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/28/spain-youths-attack-ambulances-transporting-elderly-coronavirus-patients/

 

 

 

Apparently it ain’t all beer and skittles in South Korea...

 

“...Joong Sik Eom, a professor of infectious diseases at Gachon University in Seongnam, toldSouth Korea’s Hankyoreh 21:

 

If you exlude Shincheonji, the situation looks similar to other countries … If you look at the emergence of regional clusters of 1,500-2,000 people and the number of cases, we are heading toward a situation like that of France. If you take out Shincheonji and look at the remaining data, it has been steadily rising from the first patient.

As reported Wednesday by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), Ben Cowling, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Hong Kong also cautioned against calling South Korea a success story just yet. “[T]here will always be a risk of a surge in cases resulting from silent transmission,” Cowling said. “Infection spread by cases that have not been detected in the community.”

 

Also speaking to the SCMP Wednesday, Hsu Li Yang, an associate professor at Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health at the National University of Singapore, said, “…we should expect, that clusters of cases will inevitably pop up in large countries as the pandemic progresses, particularly where social distancing interventions have not been extreme, [such] as in the strategy employed by South Korea.”...”

 

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/03/19/cluster-outbreaks-south-korea-spark-fears-coronavirus-resurgence/

 

 

 

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[skydog]

Bendigo flying club and 2 other training organisations have stopped instructing but planes are available for hire.!

Some pvte flying out of pvte hangars. Social distancing seems to be applied in those cases.

Seems crazy that we can't fly if we can still get a haircut from a barber who touch's people and is within 1.5 metres during a whole day. Far as I know buses and trains still going !! albeit lower numbers so flying is a lot safer 1 or 2 up in our little planes.

[octave]

Millions of people have lost there job's and businesses this will bump the suicide rate. Its a very simple cause and effect. It's exactly what we are doing replacing one death for another with this lock down. Ressession job losses = increase suicide rate.

 

I don't disagree with your assessment of the over 60's thats why I think it should be a targeted lock down. Over 60's self isolate and be supported. Let it rip thru the rest of the population on the current numbers it will be like a bad flu season for anyone under 50.

Its how Sweden is handeling it so we are going to find out.

 

I would not say that Sweden is just letting it rip

 

Sweden has, unlike many other countries, not applied any lockdown. The Swedish constitution mandates that the relevant expert agency, the Public Health Agency, must initiate any actions to prevent the virus.[10] On agency recommendation: the government has limited freedom of assembly, temporarily banning gatherings of over 50 individuals; physically closed secondary schools and universities; issued recommendations to work from home, if possible; and issued general recommendations to avoid unnecessary travel within the country.

 

In many ways less strict than us but in some ways more strict such as closing schools.

 

I am not saying there is only one solution but letting it rip is problematic for reason we have already discussed.