How has COVID 19 affected your flying or intended flying

[octave]

Something to look forward to...

 

“...A number of youths in southern Spain attacked a convoy of ambulances carrying elderly patients with coronavirus, throwing rocks at the vehicles.

 

The attack took place in the city of La Línea de la Concepción, which lies on the Spanish border with the British territory of Gibraltar, and saw the youths prevent the passage of the convoy of medical vehicles that were carrying 28 elderly infected with the Wuhan coronavirus...”

 

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/28/spain-youths-attack-ambulances-transporting-elderly-coronavirus-patients/

 

 

 

Apparently it ain’t all beer and skittles in South Korea...

 

“...Joong Sik Eom, a professor of infectious diseases at Gachon University in Seongnam, toldSouth Korea’s Hankyoreh 21:

 

 

As reported Wednesday by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), Ben Cowling, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Hong Kong also cautioned against calling South Korea a success story just yet. “[T]here will always be a risk of a surge in cases resulting from silent transmission,” Cowling said. “Infection spread by cases that have not been detected in the community.”

 

Also speaking to the SCMP Wednesday, Hsu Li Yang, an associate professor at Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health at the National University of Singapore, said, “…we should expect, that clusters of cases will inevitably pop up in large countries as the pandemic progresses, particularly where social distancing interventions have not been extreme, [such] as in the strategy employed by South Korea.”...”

 

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/03/19/cluster-outbreaks-south-korea-spark-fears-coronavirus-resurgence/

 

 

 

.

 

I agree that it is not over for them yet, most experts in the field believe there will be a second wave, this is the nature of pandemic. A look at a graph will show you that these countries have had a much lower infection rate than The US and Britain. Boris wanted to let it rip to create herd immunity, his mind was changed by the modelling, perhaps you should drop him a line and give him the benefit of your considerable expertise.

[Student Pilot]

I had lined up a job in the Northern hemisphere for our winter, unless things change drastically over the next month I'll be hunkering down in the Homeshed.

[Flying Binghi]

Within this article is an interesting video where they talk to one of the main South Korean virus people...

 

https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/03/from-garry-wendy-goldsworthy-on-spirit-of-sobraon-leading-covid-19-expert-from-south-korea.html

 

 

 

 

.

[turboplanner]

Bendigo flying club and 2 other training organisations have stopped instructing but planes are available for hire.!

Some pvte flying out of pvte hangars. Social distancing seems to be applied in those cases.

Seems crazy that we can't fly if we can still get a haircut from a barber who touch's people and is within 1.5 metres during a whole day. Far as I know buses and trains still going !! albeit lower numbers so flying is a lot safer 1 or 2 up in our little planes.

I received specific information from CASA two days ago, that they were not making decisions on who could fly and who had to stop; those decisions are now being made by The Deartment of Health and Social Services under their State of Emergency powers, and the same six or so Emergency Uses are still the same as they were when announced several days ago. Private and Recreational Flying is not an emergency use, and as an example the Moorabbin Training Area has been abour 98/99% deserted for most of this week, usually 1 aircraft up by mistake in a day.

 

Some people might be flying; there is an element ignoring the rules, either by mistake or deliberately and when the Task Force catches up with them they are closing down the venues, and new Legislation was introduced to allow Police to issue on the spot fines of around $1,000.0 for an individual and I think $4000.00 to $5,000.00 for a company. The legislation for more blatant offending requiring Court appearance is also still in place.

 

So those people will get the message eventually.

 

As or hairdressers being an essential service, that's for Mental Health reasons. Can you imagine the effect on people who have dyed their hair black or whatever for decades, and when lockdown comes, suddenly prove to be grey?

 

All of this information was available to you from the various key websites, along with the fact that road transport is an essential service, so buses and trains will be running.

[octave]

Within this article is an interesting video where they talk to one of the main South Korean virus people...

 

https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/03/from-garry-wendy-goldsworthy-on-spirit-of-sobraon-leading-covid-19-expert-from-south-korea.html

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

Yes I watched it and found it to be extremely good but I am wondering why you posted it contradict much of what you say. What point were you trying to make?

I would urge everybody to watch this video.

 

One of the differences between how South Korea is handling this and how other countries are handling it is that South Korea has the ability to do mass testing on a scale that we cant do at the moment. Although someiness are open they are still practicing social distancing and performing temperature tests. Positive tests result in rigorous quarantine procedures. If we could secure the resources to carry out the mass testing of even asymptomatic people and ensure quarantine for those affected then sure end the lockdown but until then we need to slow the spread. What can we do as individuals? The Doctor gives his advice from the 35 minute mark. I totally agree.

 

"A of 25 February, Daegu officials were aggressively warning residents to take precautions, while allowing private businesses such as restaurants to stay open. As a precautionary measure, many restaurants check the temperatures of their customers before accepting them. It is common for "offices, hotels, and other large buildings" to use thermal image cameras in order to identify people with fevers.[167] All Daegu's public libraries, museums, churches, day-care centers and courts had been closed.[174 "

Edited March 29, 2020 by octave

[SplitS]

I agree that it is not over for them yet, most experts in the field believe there will be a second wave, this is the nature of pandemic. A look at a graph will show you that these countries have had a much lower infection rate than The US and Britain. Boris wanted to let it rip to create herd immunity, his mind was changed by the modelling, perhaps you should drop him a line and give him the benefit of your considerable expertise.

He was presented with a model that turns out to be wildly inaccurate. But it was the best they could do at the time.

https://techstartups.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-doomsday-prediction-how-the-experts-have-failed-us-with-faulty-modeling-and-used-skewed-covid-19-data-to-stoke-panic/

Now we have a better idea about death rates and risk I have changed my mind. We do not need a lock down for under 60's

What is the end game here?

Flattening the curve just means we extend the period of time for the virus to work it's way thru. This lock down could go on for over 12 months and most of us will catch it anyway. It is here to stay 20% of people who catch it show no symptoms but are contagious how do you contain that?

There is no way the population is going to put up with a 12 month lock down. We are seeing fractures appear in lots of countries already and it's only been about 2 weeks.

The risk here is not the virus.

[Yenn]

You may be correct that the risk is not the virus. The media is non stop trying to scare us and they are succeeding. Normally sensible people are making stupid decisions, such as buying massive amounts of toilet paper, or hiding away.

[turboplanner]

You may be correct that the risk is not the virus. The media is non stop trying to scare us and they are succeeding. Normally sensible people are making stupid decisions, such as buying massive amounts of toilet paper, or hiding away.

We now know that wasn't the normal people until the end when people saw the empty shelves.

We know who was taking it, who organised it, the supermarkets across Australia that they hit, where some of the agents were storing it, photos or it going into containers, Border Force seizing containers and people, and toilet paper once again filling the shelves.

The media is guilty of putting all sorts or spin on what is happening, and if anything a bit slow to catch on to the toilet paper story all the way along.

[onetrack]

SplitS said -

in Australia "out of towner's " are getting their tyres slashed

 

Total and utter BS. Please provide the factual Police reports about these so-called "tyre slashing events" directly related to the COVID-19 virus hysteria. All Police areas have reports on what criminal activity has happened in their area.

 

There have only been two Police reports of tyre slashing in QLD in the last week -

 

One is related to domestic violence/relationship disputes, when a woman found the tyres on her car slashed in Hinkler Central Shopping Centre in Bundaberg.

 

The other is a tyre slashing event in Dalby, where two juveniles were arrested on vandalism charges, 4 days ago, after a "drunken spree" involving the slashing of 9 vehicle tyres between 8:00 and 9:00PM on Wed night.

 

There are no official reports of tourists caravan tyres being slashed because of COVID-19 virus - it's a classic "news beat-up" - the media reports of the events, even use a "file photo" of a flat tyre!!

 

Typical major news media, "fake news", designed to sell their papers and get people to click on their sites - which are always behind a paywall.

 

I refuse to pay news media for their rubbishy journalism, and hyperventilation over made-up "news articles".

 

Part of this beat-up was also from an untrue statement from (QLD) Federal Minister David Littleproud, who repeated the "fake news", in another media interview.

[octave]

Flattening the curve just means we extend the period of time for the virus to work it's way thru. This lock down could go on for over 12 months and most of us will catch it anyway. It is here to stay 20% of people who catch it show no symptoms but are contagious how do you contain that?

 

Yes flattening the curve does extend the time but surely you can see that if the rate is slowed the 20% who need to be hospitalised will get that as well as the people in the community who need hospitals anyway. Juts because covid 19 is here it doesn't mean that people don't continue to have heart attacks strokes car accidents , children with illnesses. People of all ages with cancer as well as elective surgery.,

 

To use some BS figure just to make a point if 500 000 are going to get covid 19 under either scenario surely if that happens over 1 month hospitals will not cope plus other necessary hospitalizations. Add to that the higher percentage of medical staff who themselves get sick. A slower pace of infection will lead to the load being spread out.

 

We could of course ramp up our medical systems to deal with a surge and if that happened it would be a totally different scenario. If a ramping of of medical services is started then we still need to not overwhelm the system until those extra services are in place

[SplitS]

SplitS said -

 

Total and utter BS. Please provide the factual Police reports about these so-called "tyre slashing events" directly related to the COVID-19 virus hysteria. All Police areas have reports on what criminal activity has happened in their area.

 

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/28/australia-vigilantes-slash-tyres-of-coronavirus-refugees-pouring-into-outback-from-cities/

I note you have not supplied any link.

So a Federal MP lied and created an untrue narrative wonder where we have seen that before.

Even if it's not true the anger is starting to boil over.

[M61A1]

I received specific information from CASA two days ago, that they were not making decisions on who could fly and who had to stop; those decisions are now being made by The Deartment of Health and Social Services under their State of Emergency powers, and the same six or so Emergency Uses are still the same as they were when announced several days ago. Private and Recreational Flying is not an emergency use, and as an example the Moorabbin Training Area has been abour 98/99% deserted for most of this week, usually 1 aircraft up by mistake in a day.

 

Some people might be flying; there is an element ignoring the rules, either by mistake or deliberately and when the Task Force catches up with them they are closing down the venues, and new Legislation was introduced to allow Police to issue on the spot fines of around $1,000.0 for an individual and I think $4000.00 to $5,000.00 for a company. The legislation for more blatant offending requiring Court appearance is also still in place.

 

So those people will get the message eventually.

 

As or hairdressers being an essential service, that's for Mental Health reasons. Can you imagine the effect on people who have dyed their hair black or whatever for decades, and when lockdown comes, suddenly prove to be grey?

 

All of this information was available to you from the various key websites, along with the fact that road transport is an essential service, so buses and trains will be running.

I know this is difficult for you to understand, but it is quite possible to fly recreationally and not break any laws.

YOU are providing misinformation.

How hard is it to understand that as long as you don't cross borders, and maintain "social distancing", that you are complying with all directives?

As you say....This information is available on the government websites...In plain english.

[onetrack]

The other factor appearing regularly, in some previous contributor statements, is that they are constantly comparing the COVID-19 virus to the 'flu.

 

COVID-19 is not comparable to the regular 'flu varieties. The COVID-19 virus is still poorly understood, it has no vaccine, and it causes a major over-reaction in the immune system, which means the immune system starts to attack healthy cells.

This virus is also carried and spread by thousands, who show no virus symptoms. Once you have had a severe infection of the COVID-19 virus, you also end up with permanently damaged lung sacs.

[SplitS]

Yes flattening the curve does extend the time but surely you can see that if the rate is slowed the 20% who need to be hospitalised will get that as well as the people in the community who need hospitals anyway. Juts because covid 19 is here it doesn't mean that people don't continue to have heart attacks strokes car accidents , children with illnesses. People of all ages with cancer as well as elective surgery.,

 

To use some BS figure just to make a point if 500 000 are going to get covid 19 under either scenario surely if that happens over 1 month hospitals will not cope plus other necessary hospitalizations. Add to that the higher percentage of medical staff who themselves get sick. A slower pace of infection will lead to the load being spread out.

 

We could of course ramp up our medical systems to deal with a surge and if that happened it would be a totally different scenario. If a ramping of of medical services is started then we still need to not overwhelm the system until those extra services are in place

But whats your end game extending it out 12 months? The economy with be destroyed. depression and suicide thru the roof. If you focus on one thing you will miss the bigger picture. With the economy destroyed who is going to fund the hospitals?? A healthy economy = a healthy health care system. That's if the population will even cop a 12 month lock down and I have my doubts.

BTW It's not 20% it's way less than 5%.

[octave]

[

BTW It's not 20% it's way less than 5%.

 

 

20% require hospitalization and 5% of those require ICU

 

Based on overseas experience, about 5 per cent of COVID-19 cases are "critical" and 14 per cent are "severe". This means about 20 per cent of people with COVID-19 will require hospitalisation and 5 per cent will need intensive care, often involving artificial ventilation, where a machine helps you to breathe

 

This chart shows how many Australians could land in ICU with COVID-19

[Marty_d]

Yes flattening the curve does extend the time but surely you can see that if the rate is slowed the 20% who need to be hospitalised will get that as well as the people in the community who need hospitals anyway. Juts because covid 19 is here it doesn't mean that people don't continue to have heart attacks strokes car accidents , children with illnesses. People of all ages with cancer as well as elective surgery.,

 

To use some BS figure just to make a point if 500 000 are going to get covid 19 under either scenario surely if that happens over 1 month hospitals will not cope plus other necessary hospitalizations. Add to that the higher percentage of medical staff who themselves get sick. A slower pace of infection will lead to the load being spread out.

 

We could of course ramp up our medical systems to deal with a surge and if that happened it would be a totally different scenario. If a ramping of of medical services is started then we still need to not overwhelm the system until those extra services are in place

 

Exactly, Octave.

 

There's three options, really.

 

1 - let it rip to minimise economic disruption (and yes, some deaths that will result from that).

 

This will quickly overwhelm the health system. There are simply not enough beds, ventilators and nursing staff in ICU's to handle it. So we'll get a massive spike in hospital admissions until we can't fit any more, then they'll be triaging in hallways and ambulances, before you know it there will be people dying in waiting areas and on the street outside hospitals. Not great, really.

 

2 - fully isolate and prevent the majority of people contracting it.

 

This is what NZ is attempting. If you get this in the early stages where you can track every confirmed case, everyone they've contacted and everywhere they've been, then shut down your borders and pretty much the whole country, there's a CHANCE you can stop it. Trouble is, then if you open up too early to save your economy then you're looking down the barrel of it happening anyway.

 

3 - "flattening the curve" - what Australia is attempting.

 

This is where you know that up to 60% of people are going to get this - eventually. So the whole idea is to try to slow the number of infections by shutting down non-essential services so that the health system can cope. It's still going to be bad, and over the short term it's going to be worse economically than the other 2, but hopefully there'll be less deaths and at the end of it you get your herd immunity, hopefully preventing a second wave.

 

Look none of us is an expert on this (unless we have some epidemiologists here) - so all we can do is follow the advice of those that are. Yes it's going to screw the economy but so are the other two to some extent.

And it's not like we're the only ones in this. Every country in the world is affected by this, their economies are affected. If we can just get people in survival mode for 6 months then when we come out the other side demand will grow again. There will need to be some clever fiscal policy and financial management, and there will need to be a total change of priority by major companies. They will start to realise that survival and not profits should be determining their agenda. Every small business owner that they foreclose on now is one less person paying them in 6 months time.

[SplitS]

[

 

 

 

20% require hospitalization and 5% of those require ICU

 

Based on overseas experience, about 5 per cent of COVID-19 cases are "critical" and 14 per cent are "severe". This means about 20 per cent of people with COVID-19 will require hospitalisation and 5 per cent will need intensive care, often involving artificial ventilation, where a machine helps you to breathe

 

This chart shows how many Australians could land in ICU with COVID-19

You have to use the South Koren data because they have been doing the most testing South Korea Coronavirus: 9,583 Cases and 152 Deaths - Worldometer

The problem with most other countries data is they are only testing sick people this distorts the results big time. We don't need to use projections. Just use the best country's data.

[onetrack]

Breitbart News is an extreme right-wing organisation who backs American Prepper beliefs and they regularly post untrue articles.

 

The vandalism in Dalby appears to have not appeared in Police news, because it involved juveniles. But the following article appears behind a paywall in the "Chronicle" -

 

"DALBY police have two juvenile offenders in custody after a string of vandalism offences. It is alleged the juveniles slashed nine vehicle tires between 8 and 9pm last night. In one instance the juveniles slashed three vehicle's tires at the Johnson's Dalby Motor Group car yard, opposite the Dalby Police Station."

 

Here is the media beat-up and BS statement by David Littleproud, with no facts to back it up. Why would anyone slash the tyres of tourists to get rid of them? That only ensures they stay where they are.

 

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/coronavirus-fuelled-tension-hits-regional-queensland-as-tyres-of-outsider-vehicles-slashed-c-765999

 

Virtually all tyre-slashing events are purely criminal damage with dumb motives such as vandalism, parking anger, and domestic violence towards partners vehicles.

[octave]

But whats your end game extending it out 12 months? The economy with be destroyed. depression and suicide thru the roof.

 

 

Lets imagine 2 scenarios again I will use made up figures. City general hospital has 500 respirators. Normally only 250 are needed at any one time. Along comes covid 19. . Obviously you would put in an order for many more respirators. The respirators need to be built this will take a month. Lets imaging the number of people requiring a respirator is about the same whether or not we let it rip or space it out. Lets just pick a number and say 500 people will need a respirator. Scenario 1 is slowing the spread so that at anytime there are enough repairers for those who require them (whether for covid or other reason) The second scenario is let it rip so that those people all need a respirator in the same short time period. We are then left with the situation where we have to tell large numbers of people "sorry we don't have a respirator for you but they are in the mail, try again next month."

 

Of course we could relax social distancing a little as our medical system is built up.

[SplitS]

Exactly, Octave.

 

There's three options, really.

 

1 - let it rip to minimise economic disruption (and yes, some deaths that will result from that).

 

2 - fully isolate and prevent the majority of people contracting it.

 

 

3 - "flattening the curve" - what Australia is attempting.

 

4 - Let it rip thru the under 50's protect the over 60's and anyone with health problems. Keep the economy intact as best we can. Based on the latest data very few bed's will be needed and the hospital system will not be over run.

[willedoo]

I know a vegan who has mental health problems. Without knowing more, I can't say for sure that his diet has anything to do with his problems, but I suspect that it is the cause.

Bruce, that would only be the case if his diet is lacking an element necessary for good brain function. There would be exceptions, but most vegans and vegetarians are very clued in on minimum nutritional and protein requirements. Because of their awareness of the protein and iron issues, most do their research and do the mathematics involved.

[SplitS]

The respirators need to be built this will take a month.

Hour's to build

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/italian-engineers-make-ventilators-out-of-snorkelling-masks-using-3d-printed-parts/news-story/08f64d7501210618cad01c8abda13944

[M61A1]

Why would anyone slash the tyres of tourists to get rid of them?

Well..............If I thought the grey nomads would f*ck of if I slashed their tyres, I'd certainly think about it.

But when you think about it, if you slash their tyres, they can't f*ck off. (unless you do it in their own driveway)

After reading about the American tourists who left a trail through multiple towns before absconding back to the USA, one would be inclined to slash more than their tyres.

[kgwilson]

What I still find amazing is that some people, sort of like deniers are still saying "more people are killed on the road, more die from infuenza and suicides etc". They don't seem to understand that car crashes and suicides are not contagious & while the flu is, it is much less so and we have vaccines for it.

 

My sister in London finally succumbed to Cervical cancer last Monday. My nephew was called on Thursday to try & get her body out of the morgue because they were running out of room. Covid-19 is on top of everything that normally happens like my sisters death. Letting it rip will totally overwhelm our system within a couple of weeks max. I started monitoring Worldometer last week. When I bookmarked the page there were 181,750 cases and 7,131 deaths. Just now there are 663,740 cases and 30,879 deaths. If that is not exponential growth I don't know what is.

 

Most of the Grey Nomads have fu!#@ from out local caravan park. Normally there would be over 100 there, this morning only 3.

[octave]

You have to use the South Koren data because they have been doing the most testing South Korea Coronavirus: 9,583 Cases and 152 Deaths - Worldometer

The problem with most other countries data is they are only testing sick people this distorts the results big time. We don't need to use projections. Just use the best country's data.

 

Can you point me to the hospitalization in your link. In actual fact it is not that relevant we know hospitals are struggling overseas and we know they will struggle here if there is an onslaught.

 

Hour's to build

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/italian-engineers-make-ventilators-out-of-snorkelling-masks-using-3d-printed-parts/news-story/08f64d7501210618cad01c8abda13944

 

There is a drawback, though, as full face masks are considered dangerous by some snorkeling experts due to the fact that there is a risk of excess carbon dioxide building up inside the mask if improper air outtake is provided. Also, despite this idea solving the issue of masks, there will still be a problem with having enough ventilators to go around.

ISINNOVA did note that neither the mask, nor the link valves are certified and should thus be used only on the basis of absolute necessity. According to the statement on their website, they stress that this idea is designed for healthcare facilities in cases of full-blown difficult situations where it is not possible to find official healthcare supplies.

 

These are only for milder symptoms that only require non invasive ventilation. Those in respiratory distress require invasive ventilation where a tube is inserted nd the air is humidified and heated. definitely not knocking the idea but the people who would know best are scrambling to get hold of all the ventilators they can

 

What are ventilators and how do they work?