The question of the future of flying?????

[SSCBD]

Please accept these assumptions below to stop thread drift - for your comment.

 

If we assume that the covid 19 virus is here for 12 to 18 months before we get a vaccine does that mean that no international travel will be allowed and what airlines will be left after that point .

 

If we also assume in Australia that we can virtually cancel the chance of spreading or catching the virus in the population with restrictions at present in say 3 months ish. That I would assume would mean that we could fly our sport aviation aircraft around Australia .

 

However

 

If the restriction is lifted before a virus vaccine is found and international travel starts again this will only cause in my opinion a reinfection of the population - so no jets flying overseas for 12 - 18 months? .

 

What are the members views here for sport flying in Australia.

 

and

 

What are the views for international air travel if and when it ever starts again for Holidays overseas AND REALLY what airlines will be left in the world to fly.

Edited April 15, 2020 by SSCBD

[aro]

The government has said they expect the borders to be closed until the end of the year. I expect it will be even longer - as you say, 12-18 months.

 

Perhaps some international travel would be allowed with a compulsory quarantine period on return, but who would want to go anyway? The disease will be causing problems around the world for at least that long.

 

New Zealand is the one bright spot, they are attacking the virus even more than we are so we may be able to travel there if we can control it here.

 

The outside chance is the UK. (Personal opinion only - experts probably disagree.) They perhaps have the ability to control their borders enough that with a strict enough and long enough lockdown they might be able to control it, even though their current situation is very bad. Perth-London would be the go then I think.

 

If there is any international travel in the next 2-3 years I expect fares to be very expensive.

[Flightrite]

It's not illegal to fly yr plane just illegal to get to it in the first place.

One Disapointing thing about all this is that we are not uniform across the country, different states different rules, just crazy!

As to your other Q's? .....mostly unanswerable at this point in time but VA are in big trouble at the moment!

[mnewbery]

If we assume that the covid 19 virus is here for 12 to 18 months before we get a vaccine does that mean that no international travel

In my opinion, yes it does, unless you are a carboard box

 

what airlines will be left after that point

In my opinion, it will be a small number of new government owned organisations which will contain the management and senior pilots of current flag carriers.

 

All items below are my opinion. If anyone thinks otherwise, I don't mind or care. I am only mentioning airlines that fly to Australia internationally and this isn't an exhaustive list. For example, Air Vanuatu

 

Cathay Pacific is the flag carrier of Hong Kong. Its owned by Swire, Air China and Qatar Airways. Swire and the others move boxes

 

Singapore Airlines is owned by Temasek holdings, another box chucking organisation. Temasek holdings is owned by the Singaporean government

 

Atlas, FedEx, UPS and anyone else moving boxes for Amazon will be fine

 

Emirates is already owned by the government of Dubai through Dubai Inc

 

QANTAS will muddle through because it arranged loan guarantees from the horse-trailian government and is still majority Australian owned (I have no idea who by, mostly investment houses plus Hello World Travel and Alliance Aviation Servicves) by legislation. It will become profitable again in 2025. Same comment for the longevity of Air NZ. No flag carrier means no tourists.

 

Etihad and Virgin

Virgin Oz is done. A pilot recently mentioned after the grounding "and they can go to hell too". Virgin is not and hasn't been an Australian company for a very long time. Etihad owns a chunk of Virgin and will suffer from the downfall of the latter but its cargo operation is massive and its also government owned (AFAIK)

 

American and Delta are going to be very interesting. The market for used airplanes is what it is and they will be accelerating the retirement of a number of older aircraft, mothballing others. Its unlikely they will merge in order to remain viable. One could go.

 

If United Airlines survives without merging with another airline, I will be very surprised. This is because of all the US based airlines, it moves the least freight.

 

Regional Express came in for multiple hand-outs from all tiers of government and was only partially successful. That was a really bad look. Rex owner Lim Kim Hai is worth billions so I am guessing he already said "Yeah, nah. No money from me now off you go". Not unlike what the car dealerships experienced when they discovered nobody wanted or could afford a new car. I'm guessing they either asked manufacturers' head offices or were told ahead of time not to ask for financial support. Hence the bleating about being "essential" this or "key" that in order to extort money they otherwise wouldn't get. Rex are still ok flying air ambulance for Victoria and they were (I mean "John Sharp was") very recently trying to import foreign pilots.

 

Can't have it both ways!

[kgwilson]

I tend to agree that only National carriers will survive. Freight will be far bigger than passenger carriers although most passenger carriers cart a lot of freight as well. Some airlines may morph into Freight only carriers which will mean a major downsize. With so many parked up aircraft Boeing and Airbus will need support to continue. Boeing already had a head start on shutdowns & mothballing.

[Marty_d]

Is there enough room in Nevada for all the mothballed aircraft?

[cscotthendry]

I went flying yesterday. No one bothered me (police) and I saw no one except other people on the road there. As yet, they haven't outlawed Ga and rec flying as far as I know .

WRT to flying overseas, we go to the US for three months every year and travel with our truck and caravan there. I have zero confidence in the Trump administration to do what is in the interests of the general population there. trump is only interested in his own pockets and his reelection chances. I think he will demand the restrictions be lifted long before they should. We will not be travelling internationally until there is a vaccine for this bug and we have had the shots. The way this thing kills you is horrendous; you drown in the pus in your lungs.

[kgwilson]

I went to the aerodrome yesterday and mowed the grass runways. It was a beautiful Autumn day and I went for a fly and was surprised at how much activity there was on CTAF, almost all private GA & RA with the odd Chinese student thrown in. It's easy to work out the Chinese as you usually only understand a couple of words out of the entire transmission.

[Kenlsa]

Here in SA we are treated as adults. Most everything that has troubled other states as "must" is only treated as "should" in SA, the only must here is the 10 person rule. Everything is open except "venue" locations. Very little is closed and we opened up wineries yesterday.

Because we are treated as adults, we have behaved as adults, asking ourselveslves "will this harm me or anyone else?" If the answer is No, generally we are all good to go.

Fishing and boating is all good and I checked my log book and even though club activities have stopped, solo (social distancing) private owners/pilots are good to go, so I have had 9 flights since CV19 impacted us here in OZ.

Ken

[facthunter]

ALL the odd behaviour there is caused by the water and the "tar melting" days in summer.. Eternal damnation is being sent to Melbourne. Nev

[Marty_d]

Here in SA we are treated as adults. Most everything that has troubled other states as "must" is only treated as "should" in SA, the only must here is the 10 person rule. Everything is open except "venue" locations. Very little is closed and we opened up wineries yesterday.

Because we are treated as adults, we have behaved as adults, asking ourselveslves "will this harm me or anyone else?" If the answer is No, generally we are all good to go.

Fishing and boating is all good and I checked my log book and even though club activities have stopped, solo (social distancing) private owners/pilots are good to go, so I have had 9 flights since CV19 impacted us here in OZ.

Ken

Now hold on a moment.

 

There was a South Australian won "Hard Quiz" the other day. When Tom Gleeson asked him what he was going to do with the big brass mug he won, he said he'd use it to drink quality SA beer.

Tom then asked which beer that was, to which the bloke said "West End".

 

Obviously the poor chap is suffering some serious issues with reality and should not be trusted to tie his shoelaces, much less follow social distancing guidelines!

[Bruce Tuncks]

There was for many years a west end brewery in Adelaide, and sure enough it was on the west side of the city. You could see a chimney stack from the Grange bus, and this stack had "West End" painted on it.

I dunno if its still there ... I don't go to the city much these days 'cos they laugh at the corks in my hat and talk fast and take all my money.

[KRviator]

It's not illegal to fly yr plane just illegal to get to it in the first place.

Only if you don't go to the shops first. It's all in the wording....

 

From the NSW Legislation:

The Minister directs that a person must not, without reasonable excuse, leave the person's place of residence.

For the purpose of subclause (1) a reasonable excuse includes doing an activity specified by schedule 1.

 

Then you go to schedule 1:

1. Obtaining food or other goods or services for the personal needs of the household, yadda yadda...

 

So if you leave the house to obtain food, and you obtain food, you've complied. What you do after obtaining food is immaterial, you have not contravened the legislation.

[facthunter]

The crook beers are the brands that are still there on landing. Nev

[turboplanner]

Getting back to the original subject; while the vast majority of Australians will take a financial hit and some will be scratching to find work at their previous salaries, affecting recreational flying owners, a healthy number who are engaged on major projects, mining, medical and other essential work will be making a bundle and as soon as the crisis is over and restrictions on private flying lifted, will be cashed up and looking for a good aircraft, or other toy.

 

Now is therefore the time to be ensuring that if you are forced to sell/thinking of selling, that your aircraft is in good condition for a quick sale when the market lifts.

[Kenlsa]

Marty_d, I live in the Barossa Valey, so my tipple of choice is a wine, but if I have a beer it is a Cascade! Go figure.

Ken

[jackc]

I went to the aerodrome yesterday and mowed the grass runways. It was a beautiful Autumn day and I went for a fly and was surprised at how much activity there was on CTAF, almost all private GA & RA with the odd Chinese student thrown in. It's easy to work out the Chinese as you usually only understand a couple of words out of the entire transmission.

 

Got an SMS from my flying school at Coffs Harbour today, they have their Vixxen back in service and are open for me to train.

Problem is, can not legally drive there and the caravan park is closed to travellers. So, I guess I am grounded until lockdown circumstances change. For me this will mean extra training hours to get ’unrusty’ and back into the flow of learning.

[kgwilson]

I don't know how anyone can legally train and comply with social distancing rules even if the seating is tandem

[Flightrite]

Only if you don't go to the shops first. It's all in the wording....

 

From the NSW Legislation:

The Minister directs that a person must not, without reasonable excuse, leave the person's place of residence.

For the purpose of subclause (1) a reasonable excuse includes doing an activity specified by schedule 1.

 

Then you go to schedule 1:

1. Obtaining food or other goods or services for the personal needs of the household, yadda yadda...

 

So if you leave the house to obtain food, and you obtain food, you've complied. What you do after obtaining food is immaterial, you have not contravened the legislation.

 

Whilst I like to stretch the bow a little myself somehow me thinks that a Nazi cop will throw the book at you! ? Victoria really is a communist state!

[jackc]

I don't know how anyone can legally train and comply with social distancing rules even if the seating is tandem

 

Flying solo hours should be no problem?

[jackc]

Whilst I like to stretch the bow a little myself somehow me thinks that a Nazi cop will throw the book at you! ? Victoria really is a communist state!

 

Drive Thru Maccas on the way to the Hangar, repeat process on way home!

[jackc]

Today I had a complete mental breakdown, ironically while operating my Bulldozer. Wonder how I would go starting a 1 aircraft flying school for RAus student pilots? Have found an aircraft, need a suitably qualified instructor and an airfield to fly out of. Then, I hit a big rock with the machine, and woke up to myself:-)

[poteroo]

Flying solo hours should be no problem

 

Yes, that's true - but, a student pilot must be checked by their instructor before each solo flight after their initial solo. Then, once they are out of circuits into the training area, it widens to every 2-3 hrs or so. The importance of competency checking is emphasised for instructors: very necessary before student goes back to solo or you void the insurance. The longer the student has not flown - the more important it is to dual check them for whatever exercises they have already been taught - before turning them loose.

 

Also, until the student has their RPC, they cannot complete the DI and sign off the M/R. So, instructor has to be at hangar to do this as well.

 

Frankly, I can't see how dual instruction can be 'legally' flown atm, and without it, student solo flying is a very grey zone.

 

happy days,

[pmccarthy]

Victoria is manacled by a premier who is glorying in his moment of power.

[turboplanner]

Victoria is manacled by a premier who is glorying in his moment of power.

The Isolation decisions are being made by the Chief Health Officer for Victoria, Professor Brett Sutton.