The question of the future of flying?????

[Jabiru7252]

I'm under the impression that if there are no new infections anywhere after some given amount of time (weeks? months?) then the Covid-19 virus can be considered to have died out. Isn't that the case with smallpox? Technically that virus doesn't exist anymore, officially eradicated in 1979. As for airlines wanting to be bailed out, I think that sucks, especially when the CEO gets paid more than many companies make in a year. There is heaps of activity at Parafield airport, circuit training must be all the solo qualified doing their thing.

[pmccarthy]

My friend in WA says that it is much more relaxed. He goes fishing.

[Jase T]

The big problem will be BFR's / flyingt training for new pilots / aircraft owners it's well and good for you to flY your plane but there will be no on going train or new pilots until a lot is sorted out. currency / proficiency is going to be a problem if the entire sport is only flying occasionally. Remember flying is a skill you loose if you don't practice it! Regulators and insurance companies will only allow you to go so long without a flight review!

[jackc]

The big problem will be BFR's / flyingt training for new pilots / aircraft owners it's well and good for you to flY your plane but there will be no on going train or new pilots until a lot is sorted out. currency / proficiency is going to be a problem if the entire sport is only flying occasionally. Remember flying is a skill you loose if you don't practice it! Regulators and insurance companies will only allow you to go so long without a flight review!

 

Yep, I am well and truly stuck in that boat.....might be many months before I can restart training:-(

[Jerry_Atrick]

OK - I am going off the predicament in the UK, of which basically all private GA and sprots flying, except for Bizjets, has stopped. There is the occasionaly one that pops up, but not too many. I think some schools will go to the wall, but not as many as you think - probably those that were almost there anyway as the government is making grants annd guaranteeing low interest loans with repaymetn holidays, the are delaying the requirement to pay your VAT (GST) until Jan 30, 2021 as well as provisional tax and business rates. To top it off, rather than sack your employees, they are allowing businesses to furlough their employees., paying 80% of their salary up tp £2.5K per month, with no upper limit of the budget. It will take about 6 weeks for the money to come through, so those that are close to the wire will probably go, but others will probably stay. Those "freelance" instructors would have already been declared as self employed and based on their last 2 yeasrs salary (pro-rataed if less), they can claim 80% of their earnings up to £2.5K/month, with no upper limit from a budgetary perspective.

 

With that, and given the salaries/earnings of flight instructors, I feel that they will be OK. I think they can use approved simulators to keep their skills up (to a certain point). Flying schools in even precarious but not necessarily a parlous state have, for now, a reprieve. From an airline perspective, FlyBE have folded, citing COVID-19, however, if it is true (andI suspect it isn't), it is the feather that tipped the balance against it, as it was already receiving government subsidies in the form of deferred taxes and the government had just refused a direct cash injection. The government is making funding in the form of guarantees avaialble to aorlines, including BA - which is part of the Internation Airlines Group, a majority Spanish owned holding company that owns Iberia and a couple of other European airlines. It is going to be a major headache for the EU becasue, as of Feb 2021 when Britain says sionara to the EU, it will immediately contravene foreign ownership rules.

 

I digress.. the guvmint is amking a shed load of cash magically appear to keepthe pilots' from needing to find another job unless they have been profligate. They can, I beleive, with social distancing, use Sims to retainsome semblance of currency. Us private flyers are itching to get up (in the air, lads.. keep it clean, please).. So we will either take the risk and head to the skies ourselves or lower the risk - maybe - and get ourselves checked out.. and continue. Although we are in lock-down and, in my case, the airfield has taken the instructions too far, we can go to the airfield, maintain social distancing and do our run-ups, etc. to get the engine warm enough to blow away the moisture (I hope -we have a senior BA engineer on our syndicate - he seems to know what he is talking about). After the lockdown is lifted, the question will be who has the money to fly? Well, if the government keeps most of the people to up to 2.5k/month, the light sport aviation segment will restart probably as quickly as it stopped. The GA training and bottom feeding end, and probably towards the middle (which is where I am) may wobble a bit for a while... those (like me) in syndicates will return sooner, but those finanding a TB20 or similar and above by themselves or with maybe one other shareholder, may struggle more, because they are used to earning somewhat more that 2.5k/month and if they are furloughed, probably have mortages and schoold fees to pay first. The upper end, I think will be relatively resilient. Don't forget, the government are stopping them from going broke unless they were already at the precipice. So, they will probably take, say, three months on average to get back up to steam and then be basking in their sun-filled cockpits.

 

On to the airlines. From a Brit perspective, I think there is a chance the recovery will bifurcate. The bucket-shop bohan end of tourism will spring back pretty quickly. Airlines are probably already buying oil futures and knock down prices and they will need cash - so rorting the prices could be a very risky move. People, especially in their market segment, will want out for a while. They are already on what is a generous benefits system, or very close to their wage in absoluter terms has been paid to them. As long as they oil prices don't blow out of this world, they will rebound fairly quickly - the pace will be what destinations will accept them. However, the full service airlines that tend to rely on business travellers to earn their dosh may struggle. In my last contract, we were well adjusted to video conferencing. Yes, it is better to be there in person, but is the cost of getting people form three continents in one location for say, 2 days, really worth it. It think sales trips will continue because the influencing factor in person (of someone good) cannot easily be replicated - but the pre-sales qualification, consulting and other travel I think will take a while to come back. It will though, because at the end of the day, most people a) love flying and with work, it is a bit of a status symbol; and b) most of us are social animals and we work better in the presence of the people we are dealing with (body language is around 80% of communication). Will airlines recover to their pre-COVID19 days? No idea... But it isn't dead.. just on hiatus.

[Bruce Tuncks]

Thanks Jerry, its not so different here.. but the chance of copping a big fine is far higher in Vic than in SA.

I liked the local comment about airline CEO's salaries and the airline bailouts with taxpayer's money. Is that a consideration over there? And I liked how Boris got the virus too. I think more kindly of him since he did that.

[Jerry_Atrick]

I don't think they earn as much as Joyce. Willy Walsh probably takes in total, about £7m a year and I think he knocked about £3m off it for CV9... Remember, over here, the banking sector CEOs are the big earners...

 

The government here never give away money with strings attached. They will wipe tehe floor with the shareholders if it goes to pot.

 

[Edit] Even BoJos biggest detractors here have developed a soft spot for him.. He is one of the more human leaders at the moment.. not the best leader.. But a bit like Bob Hawke - many can relate to him..

[Old Koreelah]

Is there enough room in Nevada for all the mothballed aircraft?

There was a glut of ex-military aircraft and other equipment at the end of WWI which hammered demand for newly-built stuff. I guess that's why, after the next war thousands of planes, jeeps, trucks and Harleys got buried, melted down or dumped in the sea.

 

Maybe this disaster will result in lots of barely-used airliners being crushed.

[turboplanner]

Yes, that's true - but, a student pilot must be checked by their instructor before each solo flight after their initial solo. Then, once they are out of circuits into the training area, it widens to every 2-3 hrs or so. The importance of competency checking is emphasised for instructors: very necessary before student goes back to solo or you void the insurance. The longer the student has not flown - the more important it is to dual check them for whatever exercises they have already been taught - before turning them loose.

 

Also, until the student has their RPC, they cannot complete the DI and sign off the M/R. So, instructor has to be at hangar to do this as well.

 

Frankly, I can't see how dual instruction can be 'legally' flown atm, and without it, student solo flying is a very grey zone.

 

happy days,

It can't and nor can solo, but that doesn't stop people muddying the water.

[jetjr]

That's because the regs are far from clear.

If someone flys for commuting to remote work (Ag or mining both essential) and needs a BFR -why is that not allowed

Medical advice is that 1-2 hr commercial flights in full aircraft are Ok due to short duration and cleanliness measures

Exemptions for work crews in vehicles, theist goes on and on.

 

Then the odd way CASA have granted 3 mth extensions for those BFR lapsed after a 30/3 whilst those before are unable to even sit a BFR, single seat or otherwise.

Somehow not having a review makes flight unsafe?

Simpler would be a path for supervised single seat BFR rather than extensions.

[turboplanner]

That's because the regs are far from clear.

If someone flys for commuting to remote work (Ag or mining both essential) and needs a BFR -why is that not allowed

Medical advice is that 1-2 hr commercial flights in full aircraft are Ok due to short duration and cleanliness measures

Exemptions for work crews in vehicles, theist goes on and on.

 

Then the odd way CASA have granted 3 mth extensions for those BFR lapsed after a 30/3 whilst those before are unable to even sit a BFR, single seat or otherwise.

Somehow not having a review makes flight unsafe?

Simpler would be a path for supervised single seat BFR rather than extensions.

You're co-joining two different jurisdictions.

(a) a BFR is desirable from both the pilot & authority viewpoint, but the authority is overriden by:

(b) The Chief Health Officer has an obligation for the virus not to get out of control and kill people, and had powers granted under the State of Emergency to do this which override CASA and RAA.

[SSCBD]

Really how useful is a BFR with pilots flying every week. Its the guys that fly one a month ish the need them in my humble opinion.

[turboplanner]

Really how useful is a BFR with pilots flying every week. Its the guys that fly one a month ish the need them in my humble opinion.

That's true, but what also can happen with higher hours pilots is little shortcuts start being taken. I went on a charter flight once and the Commercial Pilot had disensed with any pre-flight checks, engine checks etc. Nothing had happened to him so he'd drifetd into thinking the checks were time wasted.

[facthunter]

I reckon I'm pretty rare there, or lacking in the required skills to be the ace of the base. Dumb Me, still does some form of checklist, whatever the plane . Same with a preflight. . I always dodge thunderstorms too. What a chicken. Nev

[SSCBD]

I dd not say to drop any checks and those who do will come unstuck sooner or later no matter what. And they will do it with a instructor on board as a show.

However,

My point with BFR's are that pilots flying weekly don't loose the hands on flying skills in turns, airspeed dropping off, and stick and rudder coordination or xwind landing experience etc, compared to low time flyers - not being rude guys just a fact.

[facthunter]

In your early days of your flying experiences your skills are not fully reinforced or consolidated, so it's more easy to revert to unease with flying. You may also know mainly One plane and find anything else a challenge. If you've flown a wide variety you don't rely so much of the comfort of a well worn pair of shoes, feeling

. Basic flying skills are like riding a pushbike. Few actually have to start right back at the beginning which took a bit of gettijng used to back then' When you are learning you need at least an hour or more a week or you just stand still . Faster planes you can get behind same as complex ones. You can confuse a plane with one you once flew if you don't watch every move and expect it to be intuitive. Being Different as well as lack of recency can be an issue. Certainly IF you are doing 50 to 100 hours a month you get pretty much in the groove but may get complacent and cut corners.. I've seen many with years away come back and pick it up pretty quickly, especially if they do the required preparation and know any rule changes that affect their operation as well as the speeds and figures for the plane you get in.. Nev

[jetjr]

So why is the guy with BFR due after 30/3 safe to keep flying for 3 months and those not renewed before then now grounded indefinitely

Currency is key so by that rationale not flying regularly raises the risk

Same health officials say its Ok to sit in full Saab for 2 hrs.

Not sure anyone has said cant perform flight training if essential, have they?

[RocketShip]

In your early days of your flying experiences your skills are not fully reinforced or consolidated, so it's more easy to revert to unease with flying. You may also know mainly One plane and find anything else a challenge. If you've flown a wide variety you don't rely so much of the comfort of a well worn pair of shoes, feeling

. Basic flying skills are like riding a pushbike. Few actually have to start right back at the beginning which took a bit of gettijng used to back then' When you are learning you need at least an hour or more a week or you just stand still . Faster planes you can get behind same as complex ones. You can confuse a plane with one you once flew if you don't watch every move and expect it to be intuitive. Being Different as well as lack of recency can be an issue. Certainly IF you are doing 50 to 100 hours a month you get pretty much in the groove but may get complacent and cut corners.. I've seen many with years away come back and pick it up pretty quickly, especially if they do the required preparation and know any rule changes that affect their operation as well as the speeds and figures for the plane you get in.. Nev

Very well said.

[jackc]

That's true, but what also can happen with higher hours pilots is little shortcuts start being taken. I went on a charter flight once and the Commercial Pilot had disensed with any pre-flight checks, engine checks etc. Nothing had happened to him so he'd drifetd into thinking the checks were time wasted.

 

And you got on that plane and said nothing?

[turboplanner]

And you got on that plane and said nothing?

I did

[derekliston]

I suspect that most of these training colleges set up to meet the ‘future pilot shortage’ are going to be redundant for quite some time!

[derekliston]

On the bright side, the pressure will be off Boeing to get the Max8 flying again!

[Yenn]

Boeing are opening up again at their Puget Sound works. Must be in need of some sales to bring in cash flow.

[kgwilson]

Boeing might start building again but who's buying? maybe they are anticipating a lot of requests for parts when all the mothballed aircraft begin flying again. Mind you I just looked at Flight radar 24 & globally there are 3100 aircraft flying and a third of them are in the US.

[alf jessup]

Victoria is manacled by a premier who is glorying in his moment of power.

Pm

The big problem will be BFR's / flyingt training for new pilots / aircraft owners it's well and good for you to flY your plane but there will be no on going train or new pilots until a lot is sorted out. currency / proficiency is going to be a problem if the entire sport is only flying occasionally. Remember flying is a skill you loose if you don't practice it! Regulators and insurance companies will only allow you to go so long without a flight review!

Well Jase T

 

When I get home from my month away in the desert at work at the end of the month, I intend to take up some essential training in my plane solo keeping my skills up.

I think it is essential to at least practice what I got trained to do 15 years ago.

I also find it essential to get my engine to operating temp and over 100 deg with the oil at every start up (I cannot do that by ground running it)

It is worth 27k to replace and the Victorian state government won’t offer to replace it if it sits for 12 months.

You cannot get any more self isolated than flying, gloves on when you fuel at a petrol station and unlocking the Hangar.

Victoria is controlled by a wannabe communist who is kissing China’s butt at the moment.