LSA's are 13 x more dangerous than motorbikes?

[M61A1]

Many farmers have trouble "getting up to speed", both mentally, and on the highway, when they leave their paddocks!!

Sounds exactly like my grandfather..."I'll drive at my own SAFE speed", blissfully ignorant of the trail behind him.

Whenever we have some good rain here, you can count on them to almost stop on the only bridge in town to see the water level.

[Butch]

Fair go you lot ! I'm a farmer who drives a 4 wheel drive...…. most of my mates think I drive to fast on dirt roads!

 

Started driving at 6 droving sheep back to their paddock, its all second nature.

 

Flying's a different story....didn't start till I was older so very cautious, take no risks and am probably very timid in my attitude.

[M61A1]

Fair go you lot ! I'm a farmer who drives a 4 wheel drive...…. most of my mates think I drive to fast on dirt roads!

 

Started driving at 6 droving sheep back to their paddock, its all second nature.

 

Flying's a different story....didn't start till I was older so very cautious, take no risks and am probably very timid in my attitude.

Driving around a paddock may be second nature, but from all appearances around Here that doesn’t even go close to managing light traffic in town.

[jackc]

Sounds exactly like my grandfather..."I'll drive at my own SAFE speed", blissfully ignorant of the trail behind him.

Whenever we have some good rain here, you can count on them to almost stop on the only bridge in town to see the water level.

 

Well, 90kmh is my cruise speed these days, I move left to allow those faster than me to pass.......I find I have avoided crashes by going slower gives me time to react and make a decision how to avoid a potential pile up. Yes, know all about bikes, have 5 here and been riding for over 50 years, in Australia and overseas. They are soon to be sold, end of an era now I have an aircraft:-)

[M61A1]

Well, 90kmh is my cruise speed these days, I move left to allow those faster than me to pass.......I find I have avoided crashes by going slower gives me time to react and make a decision how to avoid a potential pile up. Yes, know all about bikes, have 5 here and been riding for over 50 years, in Australia and overseas. They are soon to be sold, end of an era now I have an aircraft:-)

As long as you’re competent I don’t care. The problem seems to be they think going slow compensates for lack of competence. It may help for a while, but sooner or later they find themselves behind the machine and it’s all over, hopefully only for them, too bad if it’s a motorcyclist and not a semi.

[Litespeed]

My tip for bike safety is ride by yourself. With others, I get sucked into speeds and conditions I would not do alone. Even my wife, who is a conservative sixty-something motorcyclist, pushes me a bit sometimes when we ride together.

 

 

Wise words, only keep with a group or even a single rider when you are happy at that speed, not just yourself but those around you doing the right thing, ie not stuffing up and bringing you down with them. Many a time, I have enjoyed riding as a group at speed, fanging it or touring, but you must be comfortable with the speed and your fellow riders abilities. We quite often get sucked in by "keepingupitis" and can get into a situations where our egos write cheques our skills cant cash. And that can be a disaster waiting to happen for all.

 

Many a rider has succumbed to the temptation to follow a more experienced and skilled rider (and with currency) on a nice road and try and keep up, I am always vigilant to try and minimise the risk when riding with others esp those newer riders with a fast big hp bike. I must admit to liking been able to just do my thing on a nice road and not worry about someone hurting themselves or me. So either leave them early whilst they get gear on or wait and have a smoko before catching up later. For young turks learning, or older returned riders, I explain, I will go first, they follow after 2 minutes and will wait for them. That way they have no incentive to overdo it, nothing is worse than picking up the pieces when a following rider fails to arrive.

 

Riding in a group is a enjoyable experience but like formation flying is a skill and requires all involved to be at a high skill level , the right mental set and in the "zone", esp if speed increases and things get "sporty". You have to rely on them always picking the right line, being consistent in braking, acceleration, speeds, separation etc and always reading the road ahead correctly as they lead a group. The leader is really a important job like flight leader but the fellow riders must be up to the task to choreograph the pack safely. It only takes one in the pack to miss a line or find the gravel patch/pot hole/ oily bit etc, when braking and the separation into the corner disappears and contact with rider in front brings the group down. When this happens into a corner, the riders are now into the oncoming traffic and you can imagine the rest. And the turkeys in cars can be the factor of death for many like ....https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/22/seven-dead-new-hampshire-crash-us-marines-biker-club

 

For the touring or longer rides its also important too consider not just various rider skill and respective performance but fatigue levels of the riders and their steed- some bikes are great at making 8 hrs of fast touring a pleasure, others induce fatigue early. Your mate might be fine company at hour three, but is dangerous at the same speeds etc come hour 5 of a long ride. The same goes for the bikes themselves, some just do not like long high speed runs- brakes, tires and suspension can get "tired" over the day.

 

 

I love a nice fast ride when I am in the "zone" but know, unless everyone else is at the same time, performance, maximum fun and safety suffer. With great pleasure comes great risk.

[jackc]

As long as you’re competent I don’t care. The problem seems to be they think going slow compensates for lack of competence. It may help for a while, but sooner or later they find themselves behind the machine and it’s all over, hopefully only for them, too bad if it’s a motorcyclist and not a semi.

 

I pride myself in my driving ability and I drive older vehicles, I still own vehicles I bought new that have never had a CD or tape in their players, they are a distraction. All the flash gizmos in today’s vehicles are a distraction and I hate cruise controls. Never use them, if I can’t maintain a correct speed with an accelerator, I need to trade my licence for a lifetime bus ticket....

[APenNameAndThatA]

In the early 80's I was contract working with my equipment around Ravensthorpe (W.A.) and regularly spotted this tray-top Landrover around town and nearby, that was bent in the middle!

The chassis was bent downwards several inches in the centre, and I surmised that the farmer had seriously overloaded the old Landrover at one time, resulting in the big bend in the chassis!

 

One day I got the chance to pull up alongside him at the Motel and queried the reason for the bend, and what he'd put on it, that caused such a severe bend?

He replied, "Oh, I haven't overloaded it - I was hit from behind!! You know those XXXXX Bros?" (local contracting brothers who were noted as speed merchants, and who owned a Valiant Drifter van)

 

"Well, I was just checking the sheep in the paddock from the road (the South Coast Hwy, the major coastal highway), just doing about 15kmh! - when one of those mad XXXXX brothers ran right up my backside with his Valiant van, doing about 120kmh!! It shocked the Bejeesus out of me!! I banged my head on the back wall of the cab, and everything on the tray ended up on the bonnet of his Valiant!! And of course, it bent the chassis on the Landrover!!

 

I could hardly contain myself from laughing at my minds eye vision of a young speed merchant in his Drifter van, coming around a bend in the highway at full speed - only to find a farmer in an old Landrover, checking the sheep from the highway at 15kmh!!

Many farmers have trouble "getting up to speed", both mentally, and on the highway, when they leave their paddocks!! This bloke certainly learnt a big lesson about the difference between "property speeds" and "highway speeds".

 

The way you tell the story, the farmer did not learn to drive faster than 15 kmph.

[Old Koreelah]

I pride myself in my driving ability and I drive older vehicles, I still own vehicles I bought new that have never had a CD or tape in their players, they are a distraction. All the flash gizmos in today’s vehicles are a distraction and I hate cruise controls. Never use them, if I can’t maintain a correct speed with an accelerator, I need to trade my licence for a lifetime bus ticket....

Jacks I agree with most of this, but I must admit to being a fan of cruise control. One less thing to have to think about, it does the work to keep you up with traffic speed. On long trips it's pretty obvious which cars are not using cruise.

[M61A1]

Jacks I agree with most of this, but I must admit to being a fan of cruise control. One less thing to have to think about, it does the work to keep you up with traffic speed. On long trips it's pretty obvious which cars are not using cruise.

I hate the gizmos, especially all the touch screens. The problem with them is you have to look at them otherwise you cant touch the correct button, proper tactile switches or buttons are my preference because you can feel them without taking your eyes off the road. They also destroy your night vision, even if they are dimmed.

I am a fan of cruise control, otherwise I find myself upsetting the police and spending lots of money.

[planedriver]

A lot don't realise that cruise control is not good in very wet conditions, in fact it can be downright dangerous if you aquaplane.

[onetrack]

[quote=APenNameAndThatA

]The way you tell the story, the farmer did not learn to drive faster than 15 kmph.

 

Well, what he failed to learn, is that if you use a major, high speed highway, the same as your own front paddock, checking sheep while you dawdle along at 15 kmh, totally unaware of other road users - then, very soon, you're going to get a rude awakening from some speed merchant - as he did.

[M61A1]

Well, what he failed to learn, is that if you use a major, high speed highway, the same as your own front paddock, checking sheep while you dawdle along at 15 kmh, totally unaware of other road users - then, very soon, you're going to get a rude awakening from some speed merchant - as he did.

The big question is id he learn from that, or does he still do it?

[facthunter]

People on cruise control can let themselves get into some horrible positions where multi vehicle pile ups are likely IF anyone lane changes suddenly.. I've made a rule to move out to pass long before where I used to and I've gotten used to semis moving out when I'm half way past them. There's no point in even getting riled. Just pullback. On Highways, I'm usually right on the limit and WATCH all cars etc around me. It stops boredom. Inattention causes ACCIDENTS and not keeping a distance apart for braking and having something go wrong with another vehicle.

Motorcycles.. I don't believe in being alone. Too easy to just disappear. I've ridden with a lot of groups and some riders are shockers. TOO fast on the straights and too slow on dirt. Try not to pull up on a bike at a roundabout if you can avoid it, feed into it. We all like a little dice with someone now and again. Better done on a track though. It's safer there.. Nev

[onetrack]

The big question is did he learn from that' date=' or does he still do it?[/quote']

 

I don't reckon he would've ever done it again, after he got that big wake-up call, with a Valiant Drifter buried in the back of the Landrover! He'd be long-dead now, this was 1981, and the old farmer was in his early 70's, then.

 

It was the period when a lot of very high-powered vehicles from the '70's were still on the roads, there were plenty of leadfoots, the roads were rapidly improving, and traffic policing was at low levels in rural areas.

[Flightrite]

47 years driving, not even a parking ticket, pretty sad by some peoples way of thinking!?

[spenaroo]

I don't know what to add.

there is so much to say, it really is comparing apples to oranges.

I remember there was a joke that statistically you have a better chance of not getting cancer if you owned a budgie. I think that sums up this thinking too.

[jackc]

Jacks I agree with most of this, but I must admit to being a fan of cruise control. One less thing to have to think about, it does the work to keep you up with traffic speed. On long trips it's pretty obvious which cars are not using cruise.

 

One of the first signs of fatigue is the inability of maintaining a reasonably set speed, via your accelerator. When you set a cruise control you have just masked one of your first indicators of the onset of fatigue.

Cruise controls don’t see pot holes, corners or other cars on the highway. I will bet many crashes are caused by fatigued drivers who simply go to sleep, with the cruise control on.

[APenNameAndThatA]

Just picking up this thread and haven't looked at the maths in great detail, but if we are talking comparing risk of flying to risk of driving (or more accurately road use), then it is an almost impossible comparison. For example, we could use the absolute fatalities per time unit (hours) or distance travelled, but at best, both are crude comparisons best left to the senationalistic press. For example, what is the big factor (outside of the pilot/driver/rider/pedestrian) missing from this the above that would have a major bearing on the numbers if it were consistent between the two? Weather. If we took away all of the accidents that happened in driveable, but poor weather (and assuming most LSA flying is done in good weather, of course), we may find the statistical averages of fatalities per hour or per distance travelled quite different for the road users.. .but would that not be a more valid comparison? Also, traffic density... and other obstructions/distractions...

 

In financial engineering, we have to do back testing of our risk models. This means that we have to effectively scrub yesterday's and historiucal and current data sets from all the noise that will distort the key findings and then apply the models. The maths applied to the scrubbing is usually as complex as the models themselves. Referring back to scrubbng the datasets so that we can approximate the weather conditions and model accordingly, well, you do the math.. It is not simple.

 

Wherever we are with respect to operating vehicles, we can mitigiate most of the risks, but not eliminate them all.. But we should strive to minimise it to the lowest practical value.

 

There is simply no need to take into factors like weather or to scrub data for this kind of comparison. There is no need to remove any factors that might confound the data, because, as far as we know, the same factors will be present in the same amounts going forward. Stating the same thing differently, if we remove confounding variables then we would remove important factors that should not be removed.

 

One way to manage financial risks of projects running over budget is to see how much similar projects tend to run over budget. It does not matter why projects run over budget, but simply that they do. If they tend to run 30% over budget, then that is what you can say will happen with the current project. Again, this is the opposite of scrubbing data.

 

The following is actually a simple comparison, and not impossible at all: LSA’s fly at 90 kts, or 170 kph. On fatal per 100 000 hrs = one fatal per 17 000 000 km. 200 / 17 = 12. So, about 12 times more dangerous than driving, and about 40% as dangerous as a motorbike. If you want to make specific criticisms of the figures, then I am all ears.

[APenNameAndThatA]

I don't know what to add.

there is so much to say, it really is comparing apples to oranges.

I remember there was a joke that statistically you have a better chance of not getting cancer if you owned a budgie. I think that sums up this thinking too.

No, it's comparing probability of dying to probability of dying.

[M61A1]

One of the first signs of fatigue is the inability of maintaining a reasonably set speed, via your accelerator. When you set a cruise control you have just masked one of your first indicators of the onset of fatigue.

Cruise controls don’t see pot holes, corners or other cars on the highway. I will bet many crashes are caused by fatigued drivers who simply go to sleep, with the cruise control on.

A considerable portion of drivers around here are incapable of maintaining anything close to a constant speed On any given day. Staying between the white lines is also considered optional. What does that say about their competence?

One of the hardest times I’ve ever had to stay awake was on a brand new stretch near Dalby. Dead smooth, straight and forced to drive at 80 because the lines weren’t painted yet.

[spacesailor]

It was a lot worse in the UK when driving on the motorways, after, they that must be obayed, dropped the speed limit down to 70.

Dozens dropped off to sleep, every week. according to the media.

spacesailor

[jackc]

A considerable portion of drivers around here are incapable of maintaining anything close to a constant speed On any given day. Staying between the white lines is also considered optional. What does that say about their competence?

One of the hardest times I’ve ever had to stay awake was on a brand new stretch near Dalby. Dead smooth, straight and forced to drive at 80 because the lines weren’t painted yet.

 

Everyone is quite capable, but many don’t CARE. Me? I started life in the Army and became a Specialist Vehicle Operator and loved every mile of it. To get that qualification I underwent rigorous training and testing. My habits continue to this day, I accept other road users don’t care so much and do my best to avoid them.....so far I have succeeded.

Have been in the media many times over cruise controls, back when they were fitted as a retrofit to many cars and many accidents resulting from poor installation.

Just like I would never use an auto pilot in an aircraft, as a lone PIC.

[Bruce Tuncks]

Here's my figures.. The fatality rate of active RAAus pilots is about 1 in 1000. We seem to have about 6 fatalities every year and about 6000 active members.

Now the death rate of 60 year-olds is about ten in a thousand from all causes.

As of now I am in my 70's where the death rate from all causes is about 20 per thousand per year. So getting old is far more dangerous, in mortality terms, than flying.

Any tips on how to stop getting older?

[Flightrite]

Here's my figures.. The fatality rate of active RAAus pilots is about 1 in 1000. We seem to have about 6 fatalities every year and about 6000 active members.

Now the death rate of 60 year-olds is about ten in a thousand from all causes.

As of now I am in my 70's where the death rate from all causes is about 20 per thousand per year. So getting old is far more dangerous, in mortality terms, than flying.

Any tips on how to stop getting older?

 

Any tips? One sure way but it's optional?