So have any of you Mexicans (Victorians)– smile people - made it across the border by air.

[turboplanner]

Front line doctors? It's referring to AAPS members.

[octave]

Association of American Physicians and Surgeons - Wikipedia

[Flightrite]

Don't let dopey Dan read that, we'll pay for it even more!

[octave]

Front line doctors in the USA have had enough of this Covid scare.

 

Positions[edit]

AAPS is generally recognized as politically conservative or ultra-conservative,[2][7] and its positions are unorthodox and at wide variance with federal health policy.[8]

 

The Washington Post summarized their beliefs in February 2017 as "doctors should be autonomous in treating their patients — with far fewer government rules, medical quality standards, insurance coverage limits and legal penalties when they make mistakes".[8] It opposed the Social Security Act of 1965 which established Medicare and Medicaid and encouraged member physicians to boycott Medicare and Medicaid.[9] The organization requires its members to sign a "declaration of independence" pledging that they will not work with Medicare, Medicaid, or even private insurance companies.[10]

 

AAPS opposes mandated evidence-based medicine and practice guidelines, opposes abortion and over-the-counter access to emergency contraception and opposes electronic medical records.[10]

[tillmanr]

As there are reportedly 5,000+ members of AAPS, versus 500,000 specialist physicians in the USA, they are not reflecting the true medical community. Sounds very self serving to me rather than concerned with the truth and the community.

[Admin]

Please be advised that we must play the subject...NOT the man or else suspensions will reluctantly be given, I don't want this and I am sure no one else does as well...thanks for understanding

[Jerry_Atrick]

Front line doctors in the USA have had enough of this Covid scare.

https://aapsonline.org/physician-letter-reopen-america/

 

Covid scare for the mathematical illiterate.

 

Hi @SplitS,

 

Can you please educate us mathematically illiterate, using credible sources, where the official maths is wrong? After all, stating "for the mathematically illiterate" is all well and good, but without real cedible evidence, it is a hollow claim. I know and understand that the death rate is c 1% of reported cases (and it appears that increasing the testing correlates to an increased identification in number of infections, but given the concern of the number of increased deaths attributed to pnuemonia, there is a concern there is also an underreporting of deaths as well). I also know that the death rate is lower amongst the younger population, but it seems to be catching out a number of people with hitherto unknown conditions susceptible to becoming a fatality under COVID-19 who were living normal, active lives.

 

We also know the spread is exponential and has the propensity to overwhelm the health services because of the extra-long incubation period before symptoms are exhibited and that a relatively high population will require hosptialisation to the point where hospitals will have to turn people away. Intuitiviely, in such a scenario where people are being turned away from necessary hosptial treatment, (and as witnessed in NYC), the death rate will increase as a result. I haven't done the research and to be honest, I can't be bothered because I trust our health officials.. so far they have not been materially wrong unless everything we are being told and the stats that are being kept is complete BS.

 

In this situation, it is hard to be statisctically precise to the individual case, but all the maths and stats I have seen do not paint a rosy picture to just let it rip - even protecting the known people with pre-existing conditions and the elderly.... The medical profession may be erring on the side of caution, but in this case, so far, the evidence has borne out support of this approach rather than throwing caution to the wind.

 

But let's go the other way... Let's isolate a decent sized part of the population representative of the greater population at large, including proprotional sized health facilities, age ranges, known pre-conditions and we can assume unknown pre-conditions; and, of course, thrown in a proprtional number of people estimated to have the virus today ... let the virus rip and see what happens. Will you volunteer to be in that test? I certainly wouldn't - nor would I allow any of my family - and I would strongly dissuade anyone else.

Edited July 28, 2020 by Jerry_Atrick

[Bruce Tuncks]

Jerry, there is a intermediate response between trying to use police powers to force all people to do the right thing and " letting the virus rip".

I would advocate helping those who want to do the prudent thing.

Apparently you can be the only household in town to not have the virus and you can stay that way. The only big risk is a lying but trusted member of the household bringing it in.

So what if the government kept itself to making sure that: 1. Nobody felt pressured to go to work feeling sick

2. chemicals and masks and testing were all easy and cheap.

3. Assistance was provided to enable you to sue infectious people who risked your health.

4. Information was widely spread about how to stay safe.

A really big thing has been that people have gone to work feeling sick. They have needed the money or they have been afraid of the boss. Fixing this would in itself be a big help.

As for trying to force anti-vaxxers to be careful, I say forget it, but assist their neighbors to collect financial compensation from them if they have done harm to others.

[octave]

Bruce I agree with many of the points you make however the notion that the answer is for people to sue people who pass the disease on is of little comfort. If someone gives me the disease and I die it it is cold comfort that my widow could sue someone.

 

Perhaps we should tackle drink driving by removing the requirement to be sober when driving and just make it easier for victims to sue. As a society we are required to adhere to the rules of that society. I would love to go for my daily walk start bollock naked (in summer) but I would be arrested. Not many people would see this as an outrageous violation of my civil rights.

 

Perhaps folks in London during WW2 should have been able to sue their neighbours for not having black out curtains.

 

I agree with your point 1

 

Point 2 I am not sure about how easy testing is but I understand there can be quite a cue, this is about testing kit availability and the ability to actually analyze the samples. Masks don't have to be expensive, we have made our own. Not sure what you mean by chemicals. Generally yes we should throw maximum resources at this problem.

 

Point 4 I have no trouble finding the latest information. I am able to check the infection rate in my particular suburb. there are plenty of reliable sources of information.

 

As for those who feel pressured to go to work regardless. I do have some sympathy however for many there is a reasonable level of financial support from the state and federal government.

 

When we go out in public we are subject to many rules that are designed to protect our fellow citizens. By an large most people follow these rules and tend to get justifiably annoyed by for example the cyclist who thinks traffic lights don't apply to them. Perhaps we should let those hard core bike riders zoom along the footpath at top speed and if they do hit someone they could get sued. I think perhaps most people would not find this acceptable.

 

We all want things to get back to normal and if legally requiring people to do the decent thing is the price to be paid, then perhaps we need to man/woman up and just do it.

[old man emu]

I think that any requirement set under the NSW Public Health Act 2010 No 127 is not going to have the force needed to ensure the behaviour required of us all

 

Public Health Act 2010 No 127 Part 4 Division 4 Section 70

Offence not to comply with public health order

(1) A person who fails to comply with a requirement of a public health order is guilty of an offence.

Maximum penalty—100 penalty units or imprisonment for 6 months, or both.

Currently, a "penalty unit" in NSW is $110, making the maximum penalty $11,000

 

If the authorities want to protect the community, then this should be the Regulation invoked.

 

WORK HEALTH AND SAFETY ACT 2011 - SECT 33

Failure to comply with health and safety duty--Category 333 Failure to comply with health and safety duty--Category 3

A person commits a Category 3 offence if--

(a) the person has a health and safety duty, and

(b) the person fails to comply with that duty.

: Maximum penalty-- (a) in the case of an offence committed by an individual (other than as a person conducting a business or undertaking or as an officer of a person conducting a business or undertaking)--575 penalty units

This makes the maximum penalty $63,250

 

Let this be known and all the "Bunnings Karens" might at least stay at home. Offences against the WH&S Act or Regulations are offences of strict liability.

[pmccarthy]

What does "feeling sick" mean? We have spent our lives with slightly sore throats, sniffles and so on and anyone might say "I will just see how I feel by the end of the day". I don't know whether I would isolate and get tested for a sniffle, I would wait to see if it turned into something more.

[KRviator]

And that's part of the problem.

 

Mini-Me had a sniffle a month ago. School won't let them in with a sniffle, you must provide a Covid-Negative confirmation, so off we go and get him tested. As soon as you get a test, you must quarantine yourself - and your close contacts - until you get the result. 4 days later, we did. 4 days of no school for 2 kids. 4 days of (potentially) no work though I'm on leave as I can't get to work and the KRviatrix is working from home but we're particularly fortunate. Fast forward 6 days and what happens? Mini-Me II gets a runny nose. Wash, rinse, repeat. For two kids with a winter sniffle, that is 8 days of school missed, 121+ hours of pay (potentially) lost.

 

It's easy to understand why so many people are willing to risk it, with the increase in casualisation of the workforce over the last decade or so. No work = no pay.

 

Tale a look at the latest tripe coming from Mark McGowan

Mr McGowan has previously said the border would only come down once Dr Robertson deemed it safe to do so, which would likely be after community transmission was controlled in other states.

Yet his own Chief Health Officer stated interstate travel is viable and indeed recommended between states that don't have outbreaks:

Advice provided to the state government from Dr Robertson revealed he had recommended to authorities that a bubble between WA, South Australia and the Northern Territory should be considered if it was legally viable. Source

 

This is no longer about keeping the population safe so much as Mcgowan sticking it to the Eastern states who have dudded WA for many years. That one person, just one, who is not an elected official, can dictate terms to a country of 26M people is ludicrous. The point of the restrictions was to flatten the curve. We have. With appropriate precautions the health system is reasonably capable of managing any increase in cases. WA's health system hasn't carried their share of the load in any case - wonder why there's so many cases on the East coast, Mark? Because where did the vast majority of international flights arrive?

 

Now, with the above said, I'm not advocating we all go to the pub tomorrow or have 80,000 people watch the Origin at the MCG and another 50,000 at an AFL game, we still need to be careful, and take reasonable precautions, avoid excessively large gatherings and the like but the key word there is reasonable. Stopping healthy people from travelling, or working "just because" they "might" have Covid is unfair to both them, their families and the country as a whole. I hope Clive wins his high-court challange.

[turboplanner]

What does "feeling sick" mean? We have spent our lives with slightly sore throats, sniffles and so on and anyone might say "I will just see how I feel by the end of the day". I don't know whether I would isolate and get tested for a sniffle, I would wait to see if it turned into something more.

You're in the band around from north to west of Melbourne where likely leakage of infections can occur, so it would be worthwhile for you to go on the DHHS site to get the complete symptoms. Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Latest news - coronavirus (COVID-19)

I'm working on a combination of 3 - so runny nose+sore throat+ temperature, but DHHS and encouraging you to go early and find you're negative than the other way around.

[Ironpot]

And that's part of the problem.

I hope Clive wins his high-court challange.

 

hmmm might be a while - The High Court won't hear it until October

[Admin]

I'm working on a combination of 3 - so runny nose+sore throat+ temperature, but DHHS and encouraging you to go early and find you're negative than the other way around.

Personally I would give a high score of just a sore throat for it to be worthy of a test

[Butch]

We just had the local Catholic school shutdown due to suspected contact by a student to a positive person.

 

Bendigo have had two Catholic schools shut down as well.

 

I have heard a rumor that the local gold and antimony mine will close as well due to suspected contact.

 

We are on the edge of the Mitchell Shire with a road block at the South end of town stopping people trying to get out of Melbourne.

 

Not looking good as we have had no positive cases so far....the wheels might be falling off !

[aro]

What does "feeling sick" mean? We have spent our lives with slightly sore throats, sniffles and so on and anyone might say "I will just see how I feel by the end of the day". I don't know whether I would isolate and get tested for a sniffle, I would wait to see if it turned into something more.

 

That's how sore throats and sniffles spread, and it's also how COVID spreads. By the time you have symptoms you are likely at your most contagious.

 

The advice is if you have ANY of:

• fever
  
• chills
  
• cough
  
• sore throat
  
• shortness of breath
  
• runny nose
  
• loss of sense of smell or taste
  

Don't go to work, don't go out other than to get tested, and stay home until you get the result.

 

People waiting to see whether it turns into something more are why we are ending up with 40+ cases in some workplaces. If you are as sick of this pandemic as I am, please do the right thing and make sure you are not contributing to further spread.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Jerry, there is a intermediate response between trying to use police powers to force all people to do the right thing and " letting the virus rip".

I would advocate helping those who want to do the prudent thing.

Apparently you can be the only household in town to not have the virus and you can stay that way. The only big risk is a lying but trusted member of the household bringing it in.

So what if the government kept itself to making sure that: 1. Nobody felt pressured to go to work feeling sick

2. chemicals and masks and testing were all easy and cheap.

3. Assistance was provided to enable you to sue infectious people who risked your health.

4. Information was widely spread about how to stay safe.

A really big thing has been that people have gone to work feeling sick. They have needed the money or they have been afraid of the boss. Fixing this would in itself be a big help.

As for trying to force anti-vaxxers to be careful, I say forget it, but assist their neighbors to collect financial compensation from them if they have done harm to others.

 

 

I echo @octave's response above, but as this was addressed to me, I thought I would add one more thing... The assertion is that everything is way over the top and the "mathematically illiterate" are gullible and there is something that experts - people with decades of experience in medicine consulting with people with decades of experience with outbreaks, don't know that is known by others. Yet, no credible evidence has been proffered.

 

Without validating the data sources, I googled Japan covid cases (japan covid cases - Google Search) and Australia Covid Cases (australian covid cases - Google Search)

 

One of the assertions is that it only really badly affects areas with high population densities. Well, take a look at the Japanese numbers.. By any valid comparison, a population density of at least 10 times Australia*, yet their peak number of cases in their second wave is not even twice the number of that in Australia - and given most have occurred in Northern outer parts of Melbourne, I would guess that the relative population densities are quite a bit less than a factor of 10 (as an aside, ACT has a pretty hefty population density of over 1,000/sq mile). They don't precisely correlate in a linear way and I am not going to see if there is any other correlation.

 

The thing is, the vast majority of the numbers in Australia (I have not checked Japan) originate from specific areas; probably from specific events** (BLM, work places and horny security guards come to mind); I guess it's too cold to flock to the beaches). I am all for reasonable and proportional restrictions to the risk; my concern is that the phrase "reasonable and proportional" especially combined with, "for the mathematically illiterate" is a vehicle to unilaterally water down the restrictions without true regard for the risk.

 

At present, we know the fatality rate, but what we don't have ready figures for are the rates of chronic impairment distributed over different levels of severity so we can measure life changing chronic impairment.

 

Also, key is the transmission rate ® and reducing it (I think that is as plain as the nose on my masked face). We know it's behaviour is exponential (as with many contafgeous diseaeses). We know it has a long incubation period so working out you have it before taking precautions once you notice you have symptoms to avoid transmission is futile. Unlike HIV, which is realtively hard to spread without being in close contact and transmission of body fluids - and even then, unless there is direct transmission into the bloodstream, even a set of inhibitor (anti-viral) drugs would be a very expensive exercise as a signfiicant proportion of the population would contract it.. While I accept if I am promiscuous and have unprotected sex with every man, woman and chimp that consents I may end up having to take and anti-viral for the rest of my life, I can elect to wear a condom and drastically reduce the chances. Now, wearing a condom is sort of like wearing a mask at the end of the day.. it does reduce enjoymnent, but it serves to reduce transmission. Yet no-one sees wearing a condom as a violation of their human rights... Of course they have a choice, but I am sure, if it were enforceable, law makers would have loved to, in the days prior to the anti-virals, have a law preventing unprotected sex except when intending to procreate.. but enforcing it is not practical - and HIV doesn't have the transmission rate of COVID. On the other hand, enforceing restrictions is more pragmatic and it does have a wild transmission rate.

 

My point.. the lockdown is to get ahead of an exponential increasining of transmissions - look at the curves of the two graphs - even mathematically illiterate can see the patterns. IMHO, they show how it can quickly get out of control; Once under control, social distancing, masks, etc, is required to keep it there. It sort of makes sense.

 

Yes, I take the point it provides other pain and suffering.. the question is of scale.. I am lucky, I live in a big (although renovators delight) house in a village on a decent plot of land outside of London. I feel very sorry for those families in a small flat in a tower block (as I do for those in housing commissions in Melbourne). We should be providing them support and relief - that is sympathetic to their cultures e.g. special dietary requierements, maybe some timetable of exercise out of the house, financial support, medicines, pastoral care, etc. I absolutely agree... But, the maths speak for themselves so far, to this illiterate person.

 

* You could also find areas in Japan on a par of population density or even less than areas in Australia. But like for like, relative to the country (e.g. captial cities, etc), it does appear to be that. Of course, Tokyo is only 6 times more populated that ACT, so I compared it to Sydney which was actually way more than 10 times... I compared Sydney to Okinawa, which gave more than twice the population density, however, that is like comparing Sydney to Geelong, maybe. It appears going hard has results regardless of population density (but, if you live in an area of 3 people per square mile, then going hard is not coming within 100' of your neighbour).

 

** I don't know what caused the outbreaks in Melb - just potential causes... so happy to be corrected.. .Well, happy to be corrected with any of the above.

 

[edit]

Looking at US Stats (google COVID-19 Cases USA), where it can be argued they have let it to a certain extent rip, their fatality rate is 3.5% - almost 3.5 times ours..They have a similar health system (although poublic health is not as good as ours), but that doesn't account for the massiv difference in fatality rates. Note, the global reported fatality rate is 3.9% and that includes many countries without developed public health facilities. That should provide some food for thought. Also, lool at their curve - more or less plateaued during their controversial period of lockdowns and restrictions; but as they have eased, well... the data is there...

Edited July 29, 2020 by Jerry_Atrick

[Flightrite]

People feeling unwell with flu like symptoms still should have the choice to seek medical advice beyond what we normally would do this time of year. You cannot force someone to get tested!

[turboplanner]

I think that any requirement set under the NSW Public Health Act 2010 No 127 is not going to have the force needed to ensure the behaviour required of us all

Public Health Act 2010 No 127 Part 4 Division 4 Section 70

Offence not to comply with public health order

Currently, a "penalty unit" in NSW is $110, making the maximum penalty $11,000

If the authorities want to rotect the community, then this should be the Regulation invoked.

WORK HEALTH AND SAFETY ACT 2011 - SECT 33

Failure to comply with health and safety duty--Category 333 Failure to comply with health and safety duty--Category 3

A person commits a Category 3 offence if--

This makes the maximum penalty $63,250

Let this be known and all the "Bunnings Karens" might at least stay at home. Offences against the WH&S Act or Regulations are offences of strict liability.

Normally in Victoria Health is covered by the Public Health & Wellbeing Act 2008 and Public Health & Wellbeing Regulations 2009, but we are in a declared State of Emergency.

Under the State of Emergency, if a person refuses or fails to comply with a Chief Health Officer Directive the penalty is up to $20,000.00.

 

If the CHO tells us to do something we have to do it.

Eve Black found that out after driving up to the City yesterday to test our system, and this time had her window smashed and was arrested and charged on summons.

[old man emu]

The names of the Acts and regulations will vary between States, but they all say much the same. The WH&S legislation is one that tends to be the same in each State, except WA. That was done with the agreement of the States and Commonwealth in order to make the rules the same for the whole country.

 

The point I was trying to make is that these protesters are arcing up about things done under laws that are not commonly addressed in the workplace. However, everyone is familiar at the WH&S laws - just look at the amount of Hi-Viz clothing being worn. To my mind, the WH&S Act is much more familiar to every employed person. Therefore, it is a "stronger" law, and the reasons for its enforcement are clearer.

 

I think the announcements of requirements for public safety under the Health Act are wishy-washy, "Please, if you don't mind" sorts of things whereas the WH&S Act says , "Bloody-well do it and don't whinge!"

[turboplanner]

I think the announcements of requirements for public safety under the Health Act are wishy-washy, "Please, if you don't mind" sorts of things whereas the WH&S Act says , "Bloody-well do it and don't whinge!"

True, but I think the idea (in Vic) was to gently move as many people as possible into compliance.

[old man emu]

Why be gentle about it? The virus isn't. Or is a bit of paternalistic authority not PC anymore?

 

I'm really getting sick and tired of people whinging about their personal Rights and completely ignoring their societal Responsibilities. If a person's Rights are more important than their responsibilities to others, then let them go live in isolation from the rest of the world - and produce all the things we take for granted.

 

I quote from a very well known European tome: 'And the King will answer and say to them, ‘Assuredly, I say to you, inasmuch as you did it to one of the least of these My brethren, you did it to Me.’

Edited July 30, 2020 by old man emu

[turboplanner]

Why be gentle about it? The virus isn't. Or is a bit of paternalistic authority not PC anymore?

I'm really getting sick and tired of people whinging about their personal Rights and completely ignoring their societal Responsibilities. If a person's Rights are more important than their responsibilities to others, then let them go live in isolation from the rest of the world - and produce all the things we take for granted.

I quote from a very well known European tome: 'And the King will answer and say to them, ‘Assuredly, I say to you, inasmuch as you did it to one of the least of these My brethren, you did it to Me.’

The words might be gentle, but the Premier a few minutes ago discussing breaches by one pain in thye neck in Victoria said they were not getting a fine, which would have been $1650.00 but would be going through the Court system where the penalty would be closer to $10,000.00 so the bite's starting to be applied to those slow to catch on.

[turboplanner]

I think that any requirement set under the NSW Public Health Act 2010 No 127 is not going to have the force needed to ensure the behaviour required of us all

How about this?

A $16.5 million fine

 

Source: Herald Sun