Jerry_Atrick Posted July 30, 2020 Posted July 30, 2020 OK @turboplanner - Let's not get too sensationalistic about it.. the above is why I will never spend money with the Herald Sun (though Robbo on footy is OK). A more seasoned review is here: NFPs face penalty of up to $16.5m or 20 years in prison for directors under new “industrial manslaughter” laws | Lexology. OK, they are talking about not for profits (NFPs), but it is about any workplace death that results from an employer's negligence, which, as the article states, is where standards far well short of those required. I worked for a state H&SE and I have to say, what I saw in my relatively short time was eye opening. The mum and dad businesses that had a minor infraction paid the price; but trying to get a corporate and the directors responsible to be held accountable was impossible. Personally, as described by lexology, I welcome the law - p[particularly the personal liability (although I will say, it should have to be found that it was a direct resuilt of the director's actions or inactions with regard to their responsiilities that they will be held accountable - if it can be shown, for example that they ordered the requisite protection and were misrepresented by their subordinates that it was implemented when it wasn't, then they should not be held liable). 2
old man emu Posted July 30, 2020 Posted July 30, 2020 There was a case in New South Wales many years ago where the owner of a heavy vehicle was convicted of manslaughter for failing to ensure that his vehicle had roadworthy brakes. The truck was going down Mt Ousley, a steep downhill into Wollongong. The brakes failed and eventually the truck ran over a car and killed the car driver. It was found that the owner had refused to get the brakes fixed despite repeated reports from the driver. That prosecution was made under the Crimes Act. The WH&S Act defines WORK HEALTH AND SAFETY ACT 2011 - SECT 5 5 Meaning of "person conducting a business or undertaking" (1) For the purposes of this Act, a person conducts a business or undertaking-- (a) whether the person conducts the business or undertaking alone or with others, and (b) whether or not the business or undertaking is conducted for profit or gain. However, I can't fine a clear reference to the Management of a public company, which is a worry to my Bush lawyer mind.
Jim McDowall Posted July 31, 2020 Posted July 31, 2020 What concerns me is the way pollies trumpet how many tests have been conducted. There is no value in that statistic as it only will tell you that you were negative at that point in time. You could walk out the door and contract the virus - and then there is the matter of false negatives (or positive) test results but nobody talks about that. 1
octave Posted July 31, 2020 Posted July 31, 2020 There is plenty of value in testing, sure it is not perfect but if a number of people test positive who have perhaps eaten at the same restaurant then contact tracing can begin. We can start to get people out of circulation before they become symptomatic. No testing regime is perfect and of course there would be people who have been infected but do not get tested. Given that 1 person can infect many people, each person who is taken out of circulation represents many potential infections avoided. Tests also gives us some idea of which strategies work. 3
Flightrite Posted July 31, 2020 Posted July 31, 2020 What concerns me is the way pollies trumpet how many tests have been conducted. There is no value in that statistic as it only will tell you that you were negative at that point in time. You could walk out the door and contract the virus - and then there is the matter of false negatives (or positive) test results but nobody talks about that. Well said?
M61A1 Posted July 31, 2020 Posted July 31, 2020 There is plenty of value in testing, Yes, there's value in testing, but no value in spouting off about how many you've done, and that was the point being made. 1
octave Posted July 31, 2020 Posted July 31, 2020 Yes, there's value in testing, but no value in spouting off about how many you've done, and that was the point being made. How many tests done in a day is statistically crucial when compared to how many positives turn up. 700 new infections from 10000 tests is not the same as 700 positives from 5000 tests. You can get useful information without knowing how many tests have been performed. 2
old man emu Posted July 31, 2020 Posted July 31, 2020 Some testing regimes are very effective, depending on the goals of the regime. I remember once that I had to compile a report on the conduct of Random Breath Testing by the Highway Patrol Unit I was attached to. Basically it included the total number of tests, the number of positive results and the numbers of Low, Middle and High Range charges. That was back in the mid-80's when RBT was a new thing. It worked out that the number of positive results was about 0.05% of test conducted. People were still drink-driving and it was not uncommon to get a Blood Alcohol well above 0.15. Come to the present day, and it is not often that there are reports of Blood Alcohol levels above 0.18. That shows that the goal of the regime - to reduce the number of highly intoxicated persons driving - has worked. The numbers of intoxicated drivers might have changed, but at least they are not so drunk. Now they are drugged.
turboplanner Posted July 31, 2020 Posted July 31, 2020 Yes, there's value in testing, but no value in spouting off about how many you've done, and that was the point being made. Yes there is but because the number of cases found increases directly with the number of tests done it confuses most people Active cases in your postcode gives you a good idea of the threat to you if you stay within your postcode, and which nearby postcodes are a threat.
Flightrite Posted July 31, 2020 Posted July 31, 2020 What's that old saying 'OME'? ....you can't be just a little bit pregnant?
turboplanner Posted July 31, 2020 Posted July 31, 2020 Johns Hopkins University Medical data as of yesterday: [TABLE] [TR] [TD]COUNTRY[/TD] [TD]DEATHS/100K POP.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Taiwan*[/TD][TD]0.03[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rwanda[/TD][TD]0.04[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mozambique[/TD][TD]0.04[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tanzania[/TD][TD]0.04[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sri Lanka[/TD][TD]0.05[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Thailand[/TD][TD]0.08[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Jordan[/TD][TD]0.11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Angola[/TD][TD]0.17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nepal[/TD][TD]0.19[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Togo[/TD][TD]0.23[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ethiopia[/TD][TD]0.24[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Congo (Kinshasa)[/TD][TD]0.26[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Burkina Faso[/TD][TD]0.27[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Benin[/TD][TD]0.31[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Niger[/TD][TD]0.31[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]China[/TD][TD]0.33[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Jamaica[/TD][TD]0.34[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Guinea[/TD][TD]0.37[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zimbabwe[/TD][TD]0.37[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Malaysia[/TD][TD]0.39[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Madagascar[/TD][TD]0.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cote d'Ivoire[/TD][TD]0.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Uzbekistan[/TD][TD]0.41[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Namibia[/TD][TD]0.41[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]South Sudan[/TD][TD]0.42[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tunisia[/TD][TD]0.43[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]New Zealand[/TD][TD]0.45[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nigeria[/TD][TD]0.45[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Georgia[/TD][TD]0.46[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chad[/TD][TD]0.48[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Singapore[/TD][TD]0.48[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Slovakia[/TD][TD]0.51[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Venezuela[/TD][TD]0.55[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Korea, South[/TD][TD]0.58[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Trinidad and Tobago[/TD][TD]0.58[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Malawi[/TD][TD]0.59[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ghana[/TD][TD]0.59[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Somalia[/TD][TD]0.62[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lesotho[/TD][TD]0.62[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Kenya[/TD][TD]0.63[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mali[/TD][TD]0.65[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tajikistan[/TD][TD]0.66[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Paraguay[/TD][TD]0.68[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Brunei[/TD][TD]0.7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cuba[/TD][TD]0.77[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Australia[/TD][TD]0.78[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mauritius[/TD][TD]0.79[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Japan[/TD][TD]0.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lebanon[/TD][TD]0.83[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Comoros[/TD][TD]0.84[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zambia[/TD][TD]0.86[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sierra Leone[/TD][TD]0.88[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Morocco[/TD][TD]0.96[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Uruguay[/TD][TD]1.01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Congo (Brazzaville)[/TD][TD]1.03[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Libya[/TD][TD]1.09[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Central African Republic[/TD][TD]1.26[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Senegal[/TD][TD]1.29[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Guinea-Bissau[/TD][TD]1.39[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Haiti[/TD][TD]1.45[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Liberia[/TD][TD]1.51[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cameroon[/TD][TD]1.55[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cyprus[/TD][TD]1.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Latvia[/TD][TD]1.61[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sudan[/TD][TD]1.73[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]West Bank and Gaza[/TD][TD]1.77[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nicaragua[/TD][TD]1.79[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Philippines[/TD][TD]1.84[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Malta[/TD][TD]1.86[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Greece[/TD][TD]1.89[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Indonesia[/TD][TD]1.89[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bangladesh[/TD][TD]1.91[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gabon[/TD][TD]2.31[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Barbados[/TD][TD]2.44[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Guyana[/TD][TD]2.57[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]India[/TD][TD]2.64[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Pakistan[/TD][TD]2.79[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Costa Rica[/TD][TD]2.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Iceland[/TD][TD]2.83[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Algeria[/TD][TD]2.84[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lithuania[/TD][TD]2.87[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Maldives[/TD][TD]3.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Antigua and Barbuda[/TD][TD]3.12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Afghanistan[/TD][TD]3.42[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Croatia[/TD][TD]3.52[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Eswatini[/TD][TD]3.52[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Czechia[/TD][TD]3.57[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mauritania[/TD][TD]3.57[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]United Arab Emirates[/TD][TD]3.62[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ukraine[/TD][TD]3.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Equatorial Guinea[/TD][TD]3.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cabo Verde[/TD][TD]4.23[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Kazakhstan[/TD][TD]4.34[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Azerbaijan[/TD][TD]4.44[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Poland[/TD][TD]4.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Suriname[/TD][TD]4.51[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Norway[/TD][TD]4.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Egypt[/TD][TD]4.85[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Estonia[/TD][TD]5.22[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bulgaria[/TD][TD]5.32[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Albania[/TD][TD]5.37[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Israel[/TD][TD]5.63[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Slovenia[/TD][TD]5.66[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Belarus[/TD][TD]5.83[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Finland[/TD][TD]5.96[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Djibouti[/TD][TD]6.05[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hungary[/TD][TD]6.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Qatar[/TD][TD]6.15[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]El Salvador[/TD][TD]6.84[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Turkey[/TD][TD]6.89[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sao Tome and Principe[/TD][TD]7.11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Montenegro[/TD][TD]7.55[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Argentina[/TD][TD]7.73[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Serbia[/TD][TD]8.09[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Austria[/TD][TD]8.12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Saudi Arabia[/TD][TD]8.43[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Oman[/TD][TD]8.72[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bahrain[/TD][TD]9.3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Russia[/TD][TD]9.54[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bosnia and Herzegovina[/TD][TD]9.87[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Monaco[/TD][TD]10.34[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Denmark[/TD][TD]10.61[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Kuwait[/TD][TD]10.76[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dominican Republic[/TD][TD]10.78[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Guatemala[/TD][TD]10.82[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Germany[/TD][TD]11.03[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Kosovo[/TD][TD]11.49[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Romania[/TD][TD]11.83[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Iraq[/TD][TD]12.15[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]South Africa[/TD][TD]13.52[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Honduras[/TD][TD]13.68[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Portugal[/TD][TD]16.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Luxembourg[/TD][TD]18.76[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Colombia[/TD][TD]19.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Iran[/TD][TD]20.26[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Kyrgyzstan[/TD][TD]21.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Moldova[/TD][TD]21.74[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]North Macedonia[/TD][TD]23.04[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Switzerland[/TD][TD]23.25[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Canada[/TD][TD]24.22[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Armenia[/TD][TD]24.66[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bolivia[/TD][TD]25.49[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ecuador[/TD][TD]33.11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Panama[/TD][TD]33.45[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Netherlands[/TD][TD]35.78[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ireland[/TD][TD]36.32[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mexico[/TD][TD]36.45[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Brazil[/TD][TD]43.57[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]France[/TD][TD]45.14[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]US[/TD][TD]46.48[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chile[/TD][TD]50.07[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sweden[/TD][TD]56.36[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Italy[/TD][TD]58.14[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Peru[/TD][TD]58.82[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Spain[/TD][TD]60.87[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Andorra[/TD][TD]67.53[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]United Kingdom[/TD][TD]69.31[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Belgium[/TD][TD]86.15[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]San Marino[/TD][TD]124.32[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 1 1
Yenn Posted August 1, 2020 Posted August 1, 2020 Turbs. Your list only gives deaths. The numbers for cases is slightly different and with the number of cases increasing rapidly, we are going to see a rapid increase in deaths. It has only taken less than a week for the Aussie death rate to double.
turboplanner Posted August 1, 2020 Posted August 1, 2020 Turbs. Your list only gives deaths. The numbers for cases is slightly different and with the number of cases increasing rapidly, we are going to see a rapid increase in deaths. I just made it simple and compared the deaths per 100,000. I know there is a percentage of people who have caught the virus and now have life-long illnesses which will end their lives decades earlier, but the people who have tested positive but gone back to their duties after some or no disability are in the same category and those who might catch the flu, and we could leave all our shops open fpor them In terms of management, countries which have suffered pandemics have some of the best records. New Zealand's performance is stunning; Australia is doing very well too. At the bottom end the strategies and performances are not so good It has taken less than a week for the Aussie death rate to double. The big rise in Victoria has come after the quaratine and towers blowouts, and is centred around Meatworks and Aged Care Homes. Not much has been said about the causes in meatworks, but it's intriguing how the virus has spread through a single industry so fast. As they shut down the numbers drop down a fortnight later. The aged care facilities are a different story, apparently hiring medical staff on a temp basis for a couple of hours a day, leading to the nurses etc adopting a practice of going to up to four homes a day. At a time when we were watching TV footage of families celebrating their grandmother's birthday through windows, apparently these staff were coming from their homes each day and passing through several nursing homes. There was also overlap; different staff had different routes, so if Staff Member 1 who serviced A,B,C,D became infected at home they brought the virus in to those Homes and infected Staff members 2 and 3 who immediately infected Homes E,F,G,H and possibll I,J,K,L and it exploded. In the very short time it took for the Commonwealth to organise joint teams of medical specialists from Victoria and other States and the Commonwealth, in one home they walked into three people were lying in their beds dead, and this morning it was reported that several others were found starving and dehydrated. This will have long term repercussions, from the penalties we discussed earlier to the class actions, the need to find a safe place for loved ones etc. Statistically this has meant an injection of high volume deaths in Victoria and those numbers should drop away after about a fortnight, but DHHS is also saying the leakage in people breaching lockdown conditions is too much to reduce the level of cases and spread.
M61A1 Posted August 1, 2020 Posted August 1, 2020 It has only taken less than a week for the Aussie death rate to double. And double f*ck all is still f*ck all. 1
Jerry_Atrick Posted August 1, 2020 Posted August 1, 2020 And you point is? The reason why it is still statisically low is the measures taken.. The compounding an exponential effect will see the cases rise pretty quickly if things were allowed to continue.. And when one runs out of medical facilities to treat, not only are the absolute amount of deaths gong to rise, but so too is the fatality rate of those infected. This is not a linear relationship (for us mathematically illiterate). Earlier this week, the Aussie fatality rate was 1.07% of those infected; in the US it was well over 3%... Yeah.. double f all is f all, but doubling the doubling the doubling.. well you get the idea. 1
Bruce Tuncks Posted August 1, 2020 Posted August 1, 2020 We sure need a faster test. I have hopes that sniffer dogs will provide this. Sure the sniffer dogs will need to be verified, but they should enable a much faster decision to be made about if it is too risky to go to work or not. Sadly, I have to say that penalties for spreading the disease will be needed, but it is nasty to put all the onus on the boss... what if the employee has lied?
kgwilson Posted August 1, 2020 Posted August 1, 2020 Another thing that I am sure is reducing the death rate now is the knowledge that has been gained since this disease first appeared. While there is no cure or vaccine there are many new treatments that have helped to keep patients alive who might well have not survived in the early days of the pandemic. We now also know that this disease is not just an old persons disease or a disease for those with pre existing conditions. Otherwise healthy people between 30 & 50 have died, others of all ages have recovered with damaged lungs, heart etc and some can't shake the disease at all even after 10 to 12 weeks with it. Worlwide we are up to 17.8 million cases based on testing. In reality it is believed the total to be 10 times that or more with the number of deaths probably around the same magnitude. A little more than f all if you ask me.
Jim McDowall Posted August 1, 2020 Posted August 1, 2020 My point is just because you test negative today, doesn't mean that you wont test positive tomorrow. Testing finds asymptomatic carriers and those who may have had the virus, or those who disregard their symptoms as they are minor. The real problem with the statistics is the REAL cause of death may not be COVID but because people died with the disease and are consequently recorded as a COVID death when in fact an underlying co-morbidity is the real cause of death eg obesity, diabetes, cardio-vascular disease or mis-management in aged care. This is supported by Heath Department statistics. After six months of this calamity I wonder about some of the central figures mental well being and consequently their capacity to make decisions out of fear and panic. 2
turboplanner Posted August 1, 2020 Posted August 1, 2020 My point is just because you test negative today, doesn't mean that you wont test positive tomorrow. That's an importtant point which many in the community don't understand. In Victoria they have been testing negative then relaxing, mixing with extended family, playing sports etc then catching the virus and spreading it. That's also why this virus will be a sword over our heads until a vaccine is found. The Epidermiologists know that, but making tests available to anyone anywhere anytime they feel like it is like sifting dirt to find gemstones; the more you sift the more gemstones you find. Victoria is approaching 2 million tests, but for us that fact doesn't have much meaning other than Australia's testing policy has helped give us one of the best results in the world. The value of testing is you get a bigger database than just waiting for people to call an ambulance; the secondary value is there are enough strains of the virus to allow tracking of the infection streams; for example the first infected Queenslander from the visit to Victoria of the three Queensland girls has emerged, so both the girls, and his movements and contacts are available for tracking and treatment, and that has happened very fast in Queensland. Also I believe out of that the Covid App has tracked another 580 people to bring in for testing. The real problem with the statistics is the REAL cause of death may not be COVID but because people died with the disease and are consequently recorded as a COVID death when in fact an underlying co-morbidity is the real cause of death eg obesity, diabetes, cardio-vascular disease or mis-management in aged care. This is supported by Heath Department statistics. The Medical industry knows this, and I've done enough ancestry research to see some odd death certificates, but often there are two notations, one of my ancestor's being Myocardial Infaction - Senility. There is a wide group of people, from the original over 80s down to babies who have an elevated risk of not surviving hospitalisation, and if they become infected with Covid-19, are admitted to hospital with it and don't make it through ICU the value of the statistic is that it gives the Health departments a handle on where to publicise at-risk groups. After six months of this calamity I wonder about some of the central figures mental well being and consequently their capacity to make decisions out of fear and panic. Two major figures have moved out of their jobs so far; it's a bit like a war; people study in the military academies for years, but when a battle can put them in a position where they are a ball of fear, or see opportunities for a decisive action which wins the day. We certainly are in their hands, but the co-operative manner in which they are all working, would also have to be one of the reasons Australia is so high on the world rankings. We just have to fiond a way of motivating that last 5% who are delaying a financial recovery.
Flightrite Posted August 1, 2020 Posted August 1, 2020 My point is just because you test negative today, doesn't mean that you wont test positive tomorrow. Testing finds asymptomatic carriers and those who may have had the virus, or those who disregard their symptoms as they are minor. The real problem with the statistics is the REAL cause of death may not be COVID but because people died with the disease and are consequently recorded as a COVID death when in fact an underlying co-morbidity is the real cause of death eg obesity, diabetes, cardio-vascular disease or mis-management in aged care. This is supported by Heath Department statistics. After six months of this calamity I wonder about some of the central figures mental well being and consequently their capacity to make decisions out of fear and panic. Well said? couldn't have said it better myself,
Jim McDowall Posted August 1, 2020 Posted August 1, 2020 We just have to fiond a way of motivating that last 5% who are delaying a financial recovery. Economist Anne Case and Nobel Prize winner Angus Deaton documented a rise in the mortality and morbidity of middle-aged White non-Hispanic men in the United States after 1998. They found that the increase in mortality was largely related to suicide, accidental poisonings (including opioids), and chronic liver disease or cirrhosis, and was associated with a substantial increase in psychological distress among this population group. Moreover, this increase in cause-specific mortality drove the all-cause mortality for middle-aged White non-Hispanic men up. This phenomenon was characterised as "Deaths of Despair". Perhaps these 5% are exhibiting the characteristics that are driving the US statistics. The relentless media onslaught, with fearful messages from the likes of Dan Andrews in Sicktoria coupled with financial necessity have probably induced a "what the f*ck" attitude. As demonstrated in the US there will come a time when all the exhortations will be worth little as the populace says we have had enough and we want to get on with life. I often wonder how Australians would cope with a real war where 1000's die every day. 1
turboplanner Posted August 1, 2020 Posted August 1, 2020 Economist Anne Case and Nobel Prize winner Angus Deaton documented a rise in the mortality and morbidity of middle-aged White non-Hispanic men in the United States after 1998. They found that the increase in mortality was largely related to suicide, accidental poisonings (including opioids), and chronic liver disease or cirrhosis, and was associated with a substantial increase in psychological distress among this population group. Moreover, this increase in cause-specific mortality drove the all-cause mortality for middle-aged White non-Hispanic men up. This phenomenon was characterised as "Deaths of Despair". Perhaps these 5% are exhibiting the characteristics that are driving the US statistics. If you check, you will find that from about March, millions, if not hundreds of million of dollars were allocated by the Commonwealth to help the States handle an expected huge increase in mental health problems. The relentless media onslaught, with fearful messages from the likes of Dan Andrews in Sicktoria You lose your credibility with comments like that. Since the start of this Pandemic, when the State of Emergency was declared in Victoria, we have been under the control of Professor Brett Sutton. He and the Premier, Daniel Andrews have attended an extended press conference every day since March. The Premier explains what has happened in the previous 24 hours, and how his government is reacting to the decisions made by Professor Sutton and his DHHS colleages. DHHS staff worked well into last night to decided what action to take in response to the surge in cases, such as the nutcase who drove from infected Melbourne to clear Wodonga for a hamburger, or the clown who drove from Melbourne to Geelong for some "fresh air", or for that matter for the two pilots who thought it necessary to fly from the city to Warrnambool. The results of those discussions will be announced by the Premier this morning, and he will explain the response by various State Government Departments such as Police and ADF support, Testing, Business Activity, management of any Restrictions etc. If the situation improves there will be a similar process. The Media go away from that meeting and write their stories. Premier Marshall comes up on my FB page every day, so I know South Australia is sending people to Victoria for assistance and on-site learning, and is monitoring SA borders to try to maintain the current good status of SA, so I hope you don't turn on him if by chance a Wave hits SA. coupled with financial necessity have probably induced a "what the f*ck" attitude. As demonstrated in the US there will come a time when all the exhortations will be worth little as the populace says we have had enough and we want to get on with life. I often wonder how Australians would cope with a real war where 1000's die every day. There is some evidence of this with one of the main drivers of Community Spread being people leaving their homes and local shops to visit relatives across town. 1
octave Posted August 1, 2020 Posted August 1, 2020 The notion that people are not dying of covid but with covid has been well studied. As well as medical evidence a statistic that is always analyzed is the rate of excess mortality. This means comparing the overall mortality rate compared to the same month in previous years. I am more than happy to links to the evidence. The assertion that the increased death rate is from psychological reasons would need more evidence than an amateurs gut feeling. My son lives in NZ and we chat regularly. NZ took firm decisive measures. This was well explained by their leadership and largely accepted amongst the community. After a quite rigid but reasonably short lockdown period my son can now go out for a drinks with friends have people over for a barbecue go sailing compete in motor sport go about his work. He can do this because people did what had to be done. I accept that some people are experiencing more negative consequences than others for financial or physiological reasons. In this country we honour the ANZAC spirit of sacrifice but ask some people to wear a mask or to get tested or to stay home for the greater good and they have meltdown. I would rather our country be like New Zealand than the US or Britain. Since nearly every country is taking firm action and I don't expect that to change anytime soon , perhaps the people who feel the need to minimize the situation should dry their eyes and get on with being part of the solution. Normality will not return until we defeat the virus. 1 2
onetrack Posted August 1, 2020 Posted August 1, 2020 I often wonder how Australians would cope with a real war where 1000's die every day. And with that dumb statement, you've displayed your faulty logic and erroneous thought processes - whereby you're comparing mankind-initiated War, to a stealthy and deadly virus, which attacks and kills in ways that not even the scientists can yet understand. There is NO logical comparison between a pandemic and a War. I don't know how you can draw parallels, there are none. In War, the enemy is identifiable by all, they have stated aims of destruction, they attack with known and understood methods, and those attacked develop strategies that are understood and which work, to defeat the attackers. In a pandemic, the attacker is poorly or little understood, it attacks randomly, and enters the individuals body unseen, and many stupid people think they are immune to this enemy, or they believe this enemy doesn't exist ("it's a hoax!"). 1 1
Jim McDowall Posted August 1, 2020 Posted August 1, 2020 He and the Premier, Daniel Andrews have attended an extended press conference every day since March Yesterday Andrews looked absolutely hammered. Is he on top of things or is this mess getting the better of him? how his government is reacting to the decisions made by Professor Sutton and his DHHS colleages. While I appreciate the message of the health professionals, I feel it is time to inject some input from social scientists and psychiatrists on the potential longer term outcomes of the style and volume of the messaging because there will come a time when the population at large turns off - and the evidence is that some already have. We all know the virus can kill, as do other aspects of human endeavour such as flying or driving a car or base jumping. Most of the population know the virus will in most cases be something they recover from (longer term risks are often ignored eg drinking, smoking, drugs). I suppose the real question is "Is a human life really valued, or is it only valued when it is no more?" 1
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