So have any of you Mexicans (Victorians)– smile people - made it across the border by air.

[Jim McDowall]

And with that dumb statement, you've displayed your faulty logic and erroneous thought processes - whereby you're comparing mankind-initiated War, to a stealthy and deadly virus, which attacks and kills in ways that not even the scientists can yet understand.

There is NO logical comparison between a pandemic and a War. I don't know how you can draw parallels, there are none.

 

In War, the enemy is identifiable by all, they have stated aims of destruction, they attack with known and understood methods, and those attacked develop strategies that are understood and which work, to defeat the attackers.

 

In a pandemic, the attacker is poorly or little understood, it attacks randomly, and enters the individuals body unseen, and many stupid people think they are immune to this enemy, or they believe this enemy doesn't exist ("it's a hoax!").

I was not making a comparison between a pandemic and a war - I was seeking to illustrate the view that as a population we have become over-sensitised to risk and death. Silent, relatively (compared to this virus) unreported deaths from influenza (about 1000 last year) and car accidents (about 1200 last year) will probably kill a similar number of people this year but in comparative terms and each is unpredictable.

Our military planners know that we will struggle to raise an army in wartime. Our canon fodder is apathetic, overweight and risk averse.

In War, the enemy is identifiable by all, they have stated aims of destruction, they attack with known and understood methods, and those attacked develop strategies that are understood and which work, to defeat the attackers.

This may be the case in a traditional scenario but war is increasingly assymetric and may not be fought between states. Afghanistan is a good example where, as Tony Abbot once said of the Syrian conflict, it could come down to a choice between two baddies.

And who knows what will happen if the US descends into a civil war after the coming election? Do we stand back and watch? Or choose a side as our long term security may be at risk?

[turboplanner]

Yesterday Andrews looked absolutely hammered. Is he on top of things or is this mess getting the better of him?

 

You pick a day after three people were found dead in beds as rescuers entered a nursing home, and others were found starving with hours to live in another, 1,000 active cases in 100 Nursing Homes, Community Transmissions caused by stupid people breaking out of the City, and barristas saying they'll go broke if we don't open up soon.

 

Two Aged Care facilities in South Australia are reported infected in South Australia this morning so you'll soon have the opportunity to observe your own Premier under pressure.

 

 

While I appreciate the message of the health professionals, I feel it is time to inject some input from social scientists and psychiatrists on the potential longer term outcomes of the style and volume of the messaging because there will come a time when the population at large turns off - and the evidence is that some already have.

We all know the virus can kill, as do other aspects of human endeavour such as flying or driving a car or base jumping. Most of the population know the virus will in most cases be something they recover from (longer term risks are often ignored eg drinking, smoking, drugs). I suppose the real question is "Is a human life really valued, or is it only valued when it is no more?"

The DHHS has all those professionals in Victoria. IF you check SAHealth, I think you'll find the same professionals in action over there.

[aro]

Another thing that I am sure is reducing the death rate now is the knowledge that has been gained since this disease first appeared. While there is no cure or vaccine there are many new treatments that have helped to keep patients alive who might well have not survived in the early days of the pandemic.

 

It is true that treatments have improved and we know more about what works and what doesn't. But the death rate is still very high.

 

While some elderly people die quickly, for many people it is 3 weeks or more after infection. When numbers are increasing, comparing infections to deaths gives a misleadingly low death rate. Deaths lag infection numbers by 2-3 weeks. We are going to see some bad numbers appearing in Australia over the next week or 2 and continuing for a month or more, depending on the effectiveness of lockdowns.

[aro]

I often wonder how Australians would cope with a real war where 1000's die every day.

 

I'm not sure what you consider a real war, but the USA has seem many more deaths from COVID-19 than from the whole Vietnam war. In April they had more deaths in a single day than from the entire war in Afghanistan, on multiple days. They are likely to exceed the number of deaths from World War 2 within 2-3 months.

 

The Spanish flu pandemic is estimated to have killed more people than World War 1.

 

So far we have been relatively untouched in Australia but if you talk to people in New York, when people you know start dying things suddenly get real.

[Jim McDowall]

The DHHS has all those professionals in Victoria. IF you check SAHealth, I think you'll find the same professionals in action over there.

I think that there is way too much GROUPTHINK. Groupthink is a term first used in 1972 by social psychologist Irving L. Janis that refers to a psychological phenomenon in which people strive for consensus within a group. Janis identified eight different "symptoms" that indicate groupthink.

1. Illusions of invulnerability lead members of the group to be overly optimistic and engage in risk-taking. (It can be a risk not to take an action that is perceived to be a risk because of the beliefs inherent in the group)
   
2. Unquestioned beliefs lead members to ignore possible problems and ignore the consequences of individual and group actions.
   
3. Rationalizing prevents members from reconsidering their beliefs and causes them to ignore warning signs.
   
4. Stereotyping leads members of the in-group to ignore or even demonize out-group members who may oppose or challenge the group's ideas.
   
5. Self-censorship causes people who might have doubts to hide their fears or misgivings.
   
6. "Mindguards" act as self-appointed censors to hide problematic information from the group.
   
7. Illusions of unanimity lead members to believe that everyone is in agreement and feels the same way.
   
8. Direct pressure to conform is often placed on members who pose questions, and those who question the group are often seen as disloyal or traitorous.
   

Draw your own conclusions

[Jim McDowall]

Two Aged Care facilities in South Australia are reported infected in South Australia this morning

No confirmed cases in nursing homes as a result of a man returning to Adelaide from Melbourne on 28 July testing positive. He lives with his mother and aunt who are both health care workers. (news.com.au 9:38 today)

See how misinformation can spread fear and panic?

[octave]

We talk as if there are only 2 outcomes you get it and its mild, you recover and all is well or you die. From personal perspective I am less concerned with catching it and being amongst the around 1% who die and much more concerned with the suffering whilst recovering and the long term effects. It is known that covid can have long consequences for most organs including the brain. I have less problem with having my life being cut short than surviving but with disablement.

 

You are right that we need to consider all the psychological problems associated with the pandemic. This includes the effects of the measures taken AND the effects of loved ones dying or being seriously ill. I haven't checked but I would bet that there are plenty of studies done in recent weeks. I would also suggest that these negative consequences are considered when enacting restrictions. More rigid restrictions could beat this quicker if the community is willing cooperate.

 

 

Jim I would like to know what you think the response to covid should be and what examples of successful responses from other countries or perhaps the differing responses from different states in the US you would approve of. Personality I would suggest New Zealand.

[Jim McDowall]

We talk as if there are only 2 outcomes you get it and its mild, you recover and all is well or you die. From personal perspective I am less concerned with catching it and being amongst the around 1% who die and much more concerned with the suffering whilst recovering and the long term effects. It is known that covid can have long consequences for most organs including the brain. I have less problem with having my life being cut short than surviving but with disablement.

 

You are right that we need to consider all the psychological problems associated with the pandemic. This includes the effects of the measures taken AND the effects of loved ones dying or being seriously ill. I haven't checked but I would bet that there are plenty of studies done in recent weeks. I would also suggest that these negative consequences are considered when enacting restrictions. More rigid restrictions could beat this quicker if the community is willing cooperate.

 

 

Jim I would like to know what you think the response to covid should be and what examples of successful responses from other countries or perhaps the differing responses from different states in the US you would approve of. Personality I would suggest New Zealand.

For a start get rid of the endless stream of press conferences. By all means have them when there is some change in regulation but people have tuned out.

Whether we like it or not the current generations are saddling future generations with mountains of debt in order to save today's politicians from answering difficult questions about deaths. The real work is being done by the legions of people who are seeking to develop a vaccine because the load of responsibility for overcoming the effects of the disease is on their shoulders.

Anybody who had parents who were children in the 1930's depression may probably have observed the long lasting effects of that event.

Do I think that there is somewhere on the planet that has done it better - try South Dakota:

As John Hinderaker wrote in the "Powerline" on June 23:

 

"In today’s authoritarian environment, with governors issuing diktats purporting to organize every facet of our lives, she has stood tall as a voice for freedom. Early in the COVID epidemic, Governor Noem gave a press conference in which she said that South Dakotans are free Americans, not subject to arbitrary orders from politicians. They are also smart: South Dakotans can look after their own health better than any government can. So her administration has put out a steady stream of data and advice, but she has refused to order anyone to do anything. And guess what: South Dakota has a very low level of COVID fatality and, last time I checked, the lowest unemployment rate in the country."

 

As Bill Clinton so eloquently put "It's the economy stupid"

[facthunter]

The premise that suicide increases during War is wrong. It goes to an all time low. People are not so self centred with a large external threat that is easily identifiable. All types of crime increase substantially though.. Nev

[turboplanner]

State of Disaster in Victoria from 6 pm tonight.

[Jim McDowall]

State of Disaster in Victoria from 6 pm tonight.

Repression is quite often followed by rebellion ........... it may take some time but it can and does happen.

[Flightrite]

For a start get rid of the endless stream of press conferences. By all means have them when there is some change in regulation but people have tuned out.

Whether we like it or not the current generations are saddling future generations with mountains of debt in order to save today's politicians from answering difficult questions about deaths. The real work is being done by the legions of people who are seeking to develop a vaccine because the load of responsibility for overcoming the effects of the disease is on their shoulders.

Anybody who had parents who were children in the 1930's depression may probably have observed the long lasting effects of that event.

Do I think that there is somewhere on the planet that has done it better - try South Dakota:

As John Hinderaker wrote in the "Powerline" on June 23:

 

"In today’s authoritarian environment, with governors issuing diktats purporting to organize every facet of our lives, she has stood tall as a voice for freedom. Early in the COVID epidemic, Governor Noem gave a press conference in which she said that South Dakotans are free Americans, not subject to arbitrary orders from politicians. They are also smart: South Dakotans can look after their own health better than any government can. So her administration has put out a steady stream of data and advice, but she has refused to order anyone to do anything. And guess what: South Dakota has a very low level of COVID fatality and, last time I checked, the lowest unemployment rate in the country."

 

As Bill Clinton so eloquently put "It's the economy stupid"

 

Spot on? The constant fear & hysteria is worse than any Virus which we have no cure for despite destroying the nation!

[poteroo]

The Spanish flu pandemic is estimated to have killed more people than World War 1

 

Because of the lack of records from many countries, numbers have been estimates at best. 20-30million is quite substantiable, but more recent estimates are from 50-75million. Comparing the Spanish flu to our CV-19 isn't too accurate for many reasons.

[octave]

Jim I cants see that South Dakota has done especially well with a population of around 860000 and 8867 cases and 134 deaths. New Zealand had 22 deaths from a population of 4.8 million. If we did a rough extrapolation of South Dakota death rates to the population of Australia with we would have 248000 infections of which around 20% may require a bed in hospital.

 

New Zealand is surely the best model.

[octave]

Spot on? The constant fear & hysteria is worse than any Virus which we have no cure for despite destroying the nation!

 

 

I would suggest that the notion that the nation is being destroyed is hysterical nonsense.

[KRviator]

State of Disaster in Victoria from 6 pm tonight.

Complete with lockdowns and armed officers patrolling the streets to ensure any violators are suitably punished.

 

Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine we would see civilian curfews enacted in a major city. But even as he is enacting these draconian regulations, what does the Victorian Premier say about the state of the hospital system?

Victorian hospitals 'not in a critical situation'

Despite the massive influx of cases in Victoria, Premier Dan Andrews said hospitals were still coping quite well.

"It's not in a critical situation. There have been great surges in terms of mobilising other staff. There are obviously staff coming out of furlough and quarantine who have needed to be there because they've been a close contact or had a test and needed to wait for that result," he said.

"It is a challenge."

 

 

The premier said there'd also been a "small ray of hope" to come out of the lockdown.

"If there's any good that's come out of the restrictions that have been in place right throughout, it's that our flu numbers in Victoria as for the rest of Australia are through the floor.

"We have probably averted hundreds of deaths from influenza because of the physical distancing that's been in place and much greater scope of immunisation people have taken up.

"That's a small ray of hope for our health system as well in terms of the pressures from flu. There's literally no flu going around."

So despite the Victorian health system 'apparently' coping with the increase in case numbers, despite influenza infections - and the hundreds of fatalities associated with them every year - being a pittance of what they would normally be, he has imposed a state of emergency and civilian curfew on one of the biggest cities in the country.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Yes he has... because he doesn't want it to get to a state where the hospitals and health care facilities can't cope.. and if you live outside Victoria, guess what.. .neither will you as they will lilekly ship Covid patients to other states' facilities that can take up the slack. It is, after all, one country, isn't it? The state's health system is sized based on expected demand plus a decent amount of fat for contingencies, etc. There is not pot at tghe end of the rainbow that has a never ending supply of staff, hospitals or the equipment that goes into it.

 

I agree it is draconian.. .I agree I would never thought I would live to see the day a massive curfew in any city in Australia would be subject to it. Unfortunately, a small minority of people decided to not comply with the looser restrictions that would in all probability have not required this to occur... You have seen from the stats how a small number of community transmissions can quickly balloon out. We can see stats from around the world that as the cases mount and the health facilities come under strain, the rate of fatalities per infections escalate (as the stats state, Aus, 1.07%, US, north of 3.5% - more than three times ours because it blew out the health system).

 

If you want to know how people will look back and judge this.. Let's look at the UK, which went slow and has one of the worst fatality rates per 100k population: Since mid-April, his popularity rating has plummeted. The press and every day people, who were very supportive of him initially are highly critical saying he didn't go fast and hard enough to start with (admittedly, he was acting on the advice of the CMO). Further lockdown easing was delayed on Friday by two weeks and with it came a stern warning that increases in infections will result in tighter restrictions.. After this week, where we had some great weather and people flocked to the beaches and largely ignored social distaincing, two weeke hence should start showing whether or not this is a hoax.

[tillmanr]

I am not normally a supporter of Premier Dan but given the continuing spread of Covid in Victoria what do you suggest would be a better approach? Many citizens are too complacent with contributing to overcoming the situation and so it continued to fester.

Better to strike a strong enforcement for six weeks than pussyfoot around for many months. I want to firstly survive the pandemic and importantly to me go flying. Under level three lockdown I could not get to my aircraft so getting serious with the situation to get a result is my choice.

[turboplanner]

On this thread, anyone can see a rolling series of press conferences where the Prime Minister, Chief Medical Officer, Premiers and Chief Health officers and Chief Ministers and their health officers stand there and provide the press with facts and how they are going to be handled. The press go away and write their daily news stories from these conferences, which included, usually unlimited question time. I would strongly recommend watching those to get the facts beause it is clean data, and saves people having to fabricate their own version of why.

 

While I was waiting for the Victorian announcement the NSW Premier and her Chief Health Officer were going into detail about the best way to prevent a Wave 2 in NSW, and the WA Premier was announcing the Commonwealth funding to speed up the re-opening of that State, with funding to add thousands of new jobs, get the mines moving again etc.

 

 

Yesterday's press conference by the Victorian Premier, Chief Health Officer, Education Minister and Police and Emergency Services Minister lasted about an hour and a half and included the reasons for the State of Disaster, what extra powers kick in and why. 9News - Latest news and headlines from Australia and the world

 

I took some notes: disclaimer, these are intermittent notes between phone calls, and are only a rough version of what was actually said; do not rely on them, get a transcript or wait for the printed material from DHHS etc.

In Wave 1 Victoria had 20 deaths; in Wave 2 it's already 123 with 7 more in yesterday's figures

Victoria has 6322 active cases, 38 in ICU

Of those active cases 649 are Health Workers and 1053 are Aged Care cases

Most important are 760 mystery cases which are active but can't be traced. e.g. a person in one street becomes infected and another person in the next street becomes infected, but there is no connection between the two people.

The daily figures are reasonably stable, but it would take until Christmas if we continued in Stage 3 to get back to where we were, so the decision was taken to go to Stage 4 where we hope to get the same result in six weeks.

 

A State of Disaster was proclaimed at 6 pm last night 2/8/20

This empowers several Commanders who will be acting in a co-ordinated way.

It also changes Police Officers from Sworn Members to Authorised Officers, enabling them to better keep people isolated to their own homes.

 

Under the SD

The policy is all about limiting the movement of people.

People can go out for specified goods and services only within 5 km of their home

Exercise is a maximum of 1 hours and no further than 5 km from their home

Maximum group is two people, family or friends, but dependants such as a child or elderly person who is normally accomanied to shops are excepted

Shopping may be done by 1 person, once a day, within 5 km

 

Today, 3/8/20 there will be a similar announcement about how Victorian business will work, and there will be big changes.

• Some will be business as usual - food, supermarkets, Chemists - there will be no need for queuing up at supermarkets
  
• Some will be reducing total output to ensure reduced employees
  
• Some will close
  

 

There will be a night curfew across Melbourne from 8 pm to 5 am, the only exceptions being to get care or give care, go to and from work; will need to demonstrate reason.

 

Regional Victoria went to Stage 3 at midnight last night (2/8/20)

This is the same as Metro Stage 3 - stay at home except for the 4 reasons.

Mitchell Shire comes back out of the Melbourne status and stays on Stage 3 with other rural shires

The Regional changes reduce people moving around Victoria by 100,000

 

Schools will change slightly

Year 10 and 12 will go back to online schooling - there are protections for VCE students at end of year (See Education Dept)

The Stage 3 number of children on school premises will reduce

 

The time for warnings and cautions are over.

 

 

Chief Health Officer

• A small group of people have not been doing the right thing
  
• Some employers have been obliging people who were sick to come to work
  
• Sick people have been coming to work hoping to keep their jobs
  
• Many flu deaths have been averted
  
• 50% of the Active cases are people in the 15 - 40 age group.
  

 

Police and Emergency Services

• State of Disaster:
  
• Power to order curfew
  
• Police can implement health directives
  
• Public Order, can control Supermarket panic buying, prevent demonstrations
  
• As Authorised Officers can enter premises
  
• Public transport will be reduced
  
• Most people have been complying with this, but some haven't
  
• Can contain people within their own homes
  
• Gives more tools to reduce spread
  

[Jerry_Atrick]

Blimey! I hope there is enough dunny paper in Vic

[kgwilson]

Some people should have plenty left over from the first round.

[Flightrite]

Blimey! I hope there is enough dunny paper in Vic

 

No doubt the sheeple have cleaned the shelves out already! That will make two things that have disappeared, dunny paper & common sense!

[turboplanner]

Blimey! I hope there is enough dunny paper in Vic

The Great DP story was solved (apart from a few Australians who followed the newspapers) Chinese were paid x cents for the cost + x cents commission per roll supplied to a warehouse in Melbourne and formed into teams, hired mini buses and went round the Melbourne supermarkets taking out trolley loads. When the supermarkets clamped down with a two pack limit, one group were filmed, each coming out with two packs which they put on the concrete outside the supermarket, then going back in for more until they cleaned the place out. The store was guarded by two or three other Chinese. The packs then went in the bus and were delivered to the warehouse where other Chinese filled containers which presumably were shipped back to China. Multiple groups in multiple buses travelled throughout country Victoria fleecing supermarkets in towns including some with only a couple of hundred residents. Port Authorties caught them, seized what containers were in the warehouse and sooner or later we should see some results in the Courts. Part 2 of the story is that one manufacturer had 5 acres x six stories high of stock throughout the whole saga because transport companies "couldn't get drivers" but that's another fascinating story.

[onetrack]

If I may comment on Turbo's statement, "get the mines moving again (in W.A.)" - I can assure you that W.A. is currently in a near-normal state of economic activity and business operations (and certainly mining), thanks to McGowan's hard stance on closing the W.A. border and treating every entry into W.A. as a suspect virus carrier.

 

I have been out in the Wheatbelt and even as far as Kalgoorlie in recent days, and I'm staggered at the amount of general activity. Traffic levels are huge, movements of machinery, fabricated structures, parts and equipment, vehicles (even large numbers of new campers and caravans being transported), huge amounts of road-building is continuing unabated. Building and renovation works are continuing at a good pace.

 

The only businesses suffering are those associated with mass tourism from overseas visitors - airports, tour agencies, and car hire companies. Even restaurants and cafes are back to near normal (apart from those who have chosen to stay closed).

The cleaning industry has boomed, cleaning suppliers are rejoicing as profits soar, the health industry is booming, with demand for nursing staff, carers and associated health staff at peak levels.

 

Clive Palmer is rapidly being exposed for the narcissistic bully he is, and I note the Federal Govt, which supported Palmers effort to get W.A. to open its border, has withdrawn its support for Palmers case, after initially supporting it.

 

It's pretty obvious the Federal Govt raced in to support Palmers lawsuit as political payback for his massive help in getting elected - but now that Victoria's disastrous state has exposed the strength of W.A.'s lockdown moves, they have decided that their support for Palmers case is looking somewhat shaky.

 

I can tell you, right now, I'm glad I live in the lockdown State of W.A. - and I might add that 96% of West Australians have indicated support for McGowan, and his approach to the entry and control of COVID-19 in W.A.

[old man emu]

Part 2 of the story is that one manufacturer had 5 acres x six stories high of stock throughout the whole saga because transport companies "couldn't get drivers" but that's another fascinating story.

 

I'll confirm a similar situation and reason with the situation of a Sydney manufacturer at the beginning of the pandemic. In fact, I'm sure that I have already posted what I knew. A major toilet paper manufacturer in Sydney was happily producing toilet paper early in the year. When demand sky-rocketed, he went to 24/7 production and stored the product in a number of adjacent buildings. He could not hire delivery trucks to move it from the warehouse to retailers. The big blokes like TOLL wouldn't contract with him for delivery.