So have any of you Mexicans (Victorians)– smile people - made it across the border by air.

[kgwilson]

When we first moved to Queensland some 15 years ago even after having a property there for 15 years before that I was quite concerned when the locals started going off about all of the Mexicans moving there over the Winter. This was quite confusing as I'd not seen any Mexican looking people around with big black moustaches, hadn't heard anyone with a Mexican accent & no-one was wearing Sombreros. I asked a bloke at the Aero Club bar about it & he just cracked up & said "Nah mate just anyone from South of the Border". I always have a chuckle about that when I think of it now.

[PaulMilo2]

We are a long way from herd immunity - probably years before it will make a difference. Herd immunity means the number of cases declines because there are not enough vulnerable people to infect. Herd immunity by mass illness means that the decline in cases starts from a very high number, and will take a long time.

 

Peter Doherty won the Nobel Prize in immunology, and is optimistic that we will have a vaccine within 6-12 months. There are currently well over 100 candidates under development. If Peter Doherty is optimistic, that is enough for me to be optimistic.

 

Also, treatments are improving as we learn more about the effect of the disease.

 

It seems likely that medicine will provide solutions in the medium term. In the meantime, we need to minimise the number of people who die, and the number of people who end up with perhaps permanent disabilities.

 

Unfortunately there are plenty of reasons for Peter Doherty to publicly state he is optimistic for a vaccine, even if he does not really believe it. There is also far more evidence to suggest that a vaccine is unlikely to be available any time soon and even when developed, there is no guarantee that the virus will not have already mutated which it will do over the course of time.

 

SARS is a good example of what can happen (ie no viable vaccine years later), although there are reasons why a vaccine has not been vigorously pursued in that case. Using the more common flu as an alternate example, again a vaccine is no guarantee of immunity and may not even cover all strains present during a season and I think at best, that will be a more likely outcome.

 

The way ASNZ is heading, we will need a travel bubble between our countries as we will be cut off from the rest of the planet that will be a long way towards getting herd immunity. I believe Sweden which has done bugger all to prevent the spread and has one of the highest mortality rates is showing signs that the death rate flattening. Even the States that is still showing increased cases is also showing a flattening death rate indicating that the forecast body bags may not be accurate. This disease will certainly thin the herd, but it will be the weaker elements (mostly). Yes, others will get lung damage etc, but its not the majority. Unfortunately, we can't all live forever.

 

,

[Flightrite]

Since there are still people around who don't know how our system works, here's a link to the first Directions issued in March by Victoria's Chief Health Officer.

You can see there's no democracy in them; once the State of Emergency was declared, he was calling the shots.

There have been many directives since as the situation has changed and the hard lock down at the towers and the latest Melbourne localised lock down and decision to keep 700,000 students and parents out of active intermixing were his, and based on control of the virus.

Similarly, on a commonwealth basis while their declaration is in force it's the Chief Medical Officer deciding what goes on, so you won't be hearing from CASA on what you can and can't do (as was confrmed on this site back in March).

https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/state-of-emergency-declared-in-victoria-over-covid-19/#:~:text=A%20State%20of%20Emergency%20has,agreed%20by%20National%20Cabinet%20yesterday.

State and Commonwealth Governments retain democratic control by limiting the State of Emergency legislation to a fixed period.

 

The CHO won't be throwing his communist powers around without consultation with dopey Dan first and his boot lickers! The CHO is not a grubby politician! They all have to get together to work out the best way to get more sheeple involved!?

[Flightrite]

Actually TurboPlanner, you are 100% incorrect and there is absolutely nothing to suggest we have the current outbreak has been caused by people 'pushing boundaries' - let's be clear, that is your own speculation.

 

The only absolute is that the overseas quarantine was a debacle in VIC and that has definitely led to infections and has been traced.

 

More speculation. There was also a very large BLM rally with 40k ppl in attendance that were largely not social distancing, which coincidentally occurred approximately two weeks before the outbreak. But that also had nothing to do with the outbreak if you believe the Govt and left wing media, because it was caused by families that reside in areas in the inner metro ring apparently ..... and we all know that none of the BLM attendees live in that area (!!!! yeah right), nor do they have families (!!!! yeah right x 2). If I was a betting man, I know where I would would be putting my money and its not on ppl social distancing whilst undertaking recreational activity.

 

As above, recreational activities are permitted, but just as in the example of driving, you cannot get out of your aircraft...which is sound advice if the prop is spinning. :-) So, if you have your own plane in your own hangar and you are not socialising, or landing outside the 'containment zone', then the risk of you flying is less than undertaking one if the 3 other key reasons for being allowed to leave home detention.

Well said!?

[turboplanner]

Actually TurboPlanner, you are 100% incorrect and there is absolutely nothing to suggest we have the current outbreak has been caused by people 'pushing boundaries' - let's be clear, that is your own speculation.

 

The only absolute is that the overseas quarantine was a debacle in VIC and that has definitely led to infections and has been traced.

 

More speculation. There was also a very large BLM rally with 40k ppl in attendance that were largely not social distancing, which coincidentally occurred approximately two weeks before the outbreak. But that also had nothing to do with the outbreak if you believe the Govt and left wing media, because it was caused by families that reside in areas in the inner metro ring apparently ..... and we all know that none of the BLM attendees live in that area (!!!! yeah right), nor do they have families (!!!! yeah right x 2). If I was a betting man, I know where I would would be putting my money and its not on ppl social distancing whilst undertaking recreational activity.

 

As above, recreational activities are permitted, but just as in the example of driving, you cannot get out of your aircraft...which is sound advice if the prop is spinning. :-) So, if you have your own plane in your own hangar and you are not socialising, or landing outside the 'containment zone', then the risk of you flying is less than undertaking one if the 3 other key reasons for being allowed to leave home detention.

The attached figures come direct from the DHHS public data as against newspapers, gossip etc, so people can make their own minds up.

The BLM rally was on June 6, The Stamford plaza outbreak was on June 20

The figures are Total conformed cases (ever), ie cum.

 

We are in Metropolitan lock down, and in this zone the Chief Health officer has given us four simple reasons to leave our homes, with two exercise options, gold and fishing. Nothing else, period. You don't have any option to invent a reason based on your theories. The recent $25,000 in fines was given to people who bought pizzas and cleverly thought this covered them.

[Flightrite]

I think the CHO/Dan is in cahoots with the BOM, can't fly!?

[Bruce Tuncks]

I would like to know if any of the new cases really were obeying all the cautions which have been published.

Otherwise I will revert to my initial position which is to say that you have every right to catch anything, but when you do, you have to suffer the consequences without help from the taxpayer.

[pmccarthy]

The attached figures come direct from the DHHS public data as against newspapers, gossip etc, so people can make their own minds up.

The BLM rally was on June 6, The Stamford plaza outbreak was on June 20

The figures are Total conformed cases (ever), ie cum.

 

We are in Metropolitan lock down, and in this zone the Chief Health officer has given us four simple reasons to leave our homes, with two exercise options, gold and fishing. Nothing else, period. You don't have any option to invent a reason based on your theories. The recent $25,000 in fines was given to people who bought pizzas and cleverly thought this covered them.[ATTACH type=full" alt="WDCovid.JPG]54625[/ATTACH]

Gold and fishing? I will take gold every time.

[turboplanner]

I would like to know if any of the new cases really were obeying all the cautions which have been published.

Otherwise I will revert to my initial position which is to say that you have every right to catch anything, but when you do, you have to suffer the consequences without help from the taxpayer.

Big family parties, after the easing of restrictions people flooded pubs, restaurants, no social distancing, filled tables in McDonalds etc, so mainly behaviour. On the other hand look at the Greater Dandenong figures, 150 nationalities poor socioeconomic but the Council hit the ground running in March with language, explanations, people social distanced and look at the results.

[octave]

I would like to know if any of the new cases really were obeying all the cautions which have been published.

Otherwise I will revert to my initial position which is to say that you have every right to catch anything, but when you do, you have to suffer the consequences without help from the taxpayer.

 

I think there are issues where people have no there choice but to go to work. There was an outbreak at the meat processing work, I am not sure what exactly happened there but I can see that you could be at the mercy of your employer. Schools went back so teachers were expected `to teach face to face. If you drive an uber or a taxi and you rely on your earnings to pay your rent you may feel you have little choice. I believe a supermarket worker became infected, and of course health workers. Following the guidelines will reduce your risk but not eliminate it. I count myself as being extremely lucky that I do not need to work and the work I am doing can be done online.

 

And then of course there are some foolish people who don't do the right thing.

[Bruce Tuncks]

Good comment Octave. Yes, people should be free to NOT go to work until cleared by a test. They should be able to do this without fear of missing out on needed money and of employer retribution. This is what I would like to see governments doing.

[M61A1]

150 nationalities poor socioeconomic but the Council hit the ground running in March with language, explanations, people social distanced and look at the results.

Exactly....The same people knew what precautions to take in March. It's an outright lie for the govt to suggest that they don't understand because their english is poor. When Dan allowed Bacon Lettuce and Mayo protesters to go ahead he effectively let everyone know that it was OK to do whatever you like without consequence. The current problem is directly on his shoulders.

Mind you, for a large spike in cases we have hardly any serious cases and 2 extra deaths so far, both very old. Perhaps it is not as serious as they portray. We will know more in a few weeks as cases mature.

[kaz3g]

You can leave home to go shopping. So go to Woolies and buy a loaf of bread and dozen eggs. What you do after shopping is irrelevant - you left home to go shopping and you went shopping.

 

That being said, you are permitted (under the Stat At Home (Restricted Areas) directions) to leave home to attend a lesson to operate a vehicle or to practice for the purpose of obtaining a licence to operate a vehicle. Chapter 10(h).

 

Vehicle is defined as the definition contained inthe Public Health & Wellbeing act -which happily defines it as " vehicle means any means of transport, whether self-propelled or not, and whether used on land or sea or in the air.".

 

Chapter 1(B) of the Stay at Home directions says you must not leave the restricted area except as allowed under Clause 6,7,8,9 or 10 - with 10 allowing the operating a vehicle exemption. So yes, you can still go flying if you're putting in practice to obtain a licence - even if you need to leave your locked-down post-code to do it. Maybe organise a BFR at Mangalore if you really want to get the police excitable??

 

So go flying to practice for your PPL, or your RPL, or something else and tell the rozzers to sod off - even if you haven't bought that loaf of bread first!

You will get the police excited if you go from Melbourne to Mangalore which is in Strathbogie, not Mitchell.

[turboplanner]

Exactly....The same people knew what precautions to take in March. It's an outright lie for the govt to suggest that they don't understand because their english is poor. When Dan allowed Bacon Lettuce and Mayo protesters to go ahead he effectively let everyone know that it was OK to do whatever you like without consequence. The current problem is directly on his shoulders.

Mind you, for a large spike in cases we have hardly any serious cases and 2 extra deaths so far, both very old. Perhaps it is not as serious as they portray. We will know more in a few weeks as cases mature.

Today’s press conference went for about an hour and a half, mainly on online schooling which affects me, but about 7 outbreaks were discussed and their various causes given. Over a million tests have been done and DHHS have a multi-State team if tracers following up every outbreak.

[ClintonB]

I’m glad I live in northern inland nsw. We just crossed border tonight in 1 minute with our passes and questions if we had been in Sydney or vic latel.

[poteroo]

Discussion about 'Mexicans' from 'down south' (specifically - Victoria), always brings me to a smile about how Queenslanders have a long held dislike of anyone S of the border. My long departed Dad blamed them for near everything that went wrong in SEQ - floods, landslides, traffic, prices, hospital overcrowding, too many visitors at his bowling club, (on the Sunshine Coast).......... and on it went! My generation, (war babies), grew up with a fear of 'Mexicans' only 2nd to the evil Japanese faces on the WW2 posters. But I've lived in WA now for 50 years, so no longer live in terror!

 

btw, as a former plant pathologist with some epidemiological experience, I believe the greater threat for CV-19 is the fact of its' spread via 'aerosol' sized droplets, (very small). Its' been several decades since scientists identified virus particles on dust, pesticide particles, chemical pollutants, and disease spores being carried W - E around the earth in the upper atmosphere. DNA studies have demonstrated that plant diseases have only taken days/weeks to move from continent to continent. These particles may sediment out of the atmosphere, onto the earths surface, but usually in areas where there are no host plants or animals. But, the possibility of them landing on a likely host is always there. This is only now being investigated in relation to CV19.

 

If you think that CV-19 spread is only via larger 'wet' droplets, and that your social distancing will protect you.... think again. Masks will help, but these aerosols are likely responsible for many of the widely separated, inexplicable clusters which are being found.

 

I rests me case here - before I begin to frighten the horses!

[farri]

I`ve lived in north Queensland all of my life and had never heard of people south of the border being referred to (jokingly) as Mexicans, until I read it in one of the posts, here on this Forum, several years ago.

[old man emu]

A problem I find with this discussion is that for people who don't live in the Melbourne Metropolitan Area, simply naming locations as in Turbo's post #80 has little information for the rest of us as we don't know where those places are. Likewise, if I spoke about places like Beverly Hills (NSW), Roselands, Belmore and Campsie how many non-Sydneysiders would know those locations?

 

In an earlier post I put up a map showing a possible flight within the lock-down zone. I don't know if the route was possible without entering areas where overflying was prohibited by AirServices. That is because I don't know the airspace there, nor do I have a need for the required charts.

[Flightrite]

'poteroo' stop that you are scaring the 'sheeple' out there!??

[old man emu]

the greater threat for CV-19 is the fact of it's spread via 'aerosol' sized droplets, (very small).

 

We measure air pollution as the concentration of particles in the air. The smallest size is PM2.5 – fine particles less than 2.5 µm (2.5 microns) in diameter. Sources include all types of combustion, including motor vehicles, power plants, residential wood burning, forest fires, agricultural burning, and some industrial processes. May also include sea salt. One um (micron) is 1/1000 is one millimetre. A virus is about a thousand times smaller than the micron. Human hair is about 75 microns in diameter.

 

Therefore, it is not the globs of liquid from coughs and sneezes, but the content of normally expired breath that is the real danger. Recent investigations into the spread of the Black Death have questioned the the rat/flea vector and suggested that its spread in densely populated areas was due to aerosol dispersion.

[turboplanner]

A problem I find with this discussion is that for people who don't live in the Melbourne Metropolitan Area, simply naming locations as in Turbo's post #80 has little information for the rest of us as we don't know where those places are. Likewise, if I spoke about places like Beverly Hills (NSW), Roselands, Belmore and Campsie how many non-Sydneysiders would know those locations?

What I posted was primarily to show that a media beatup about security staff failure at the Stamford Plaza Hotel was insignificant in terms of the numbers, and so was the BLM rally.

What has been a lot more significant is some sections of Melbourne being much less unruly than others like Dandenong.

The outbreak area is roughly one a north-south axis with a band from the central CBD north past the edge of the city and up to Seymour, with a bulge out to the west.

It's going to vary in size, but the area takes up roughly 20% of greater melbourne with most of the south east suburbs with 1 or two cases only.

 

The figures I posted came from this link, and if you follow it you can get an accurate daily report, not only of the many causes of the cases, and the cluster groups, but for each suburb.

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/media-hub-coronavirus-disease-covid-19

 

Where you see cumulative totals and they are rusing then falling off, that's where DHHS has revised errors.

Also there is a lag; for example the tests for all 3000 people in the towers are completed, but the daily increases are still increasing - that's the results of those tests coming in, so those numbers could flatten off in a few days.

 

 

In an earlier post I put up a map showing a possible flight within the lock-down zone. I don't know if the route was possible without entering areas where overflying was prohibited by AirServices. That is because I don't know the airspace there, nor do I have a need for the required charts.

You could normally fly that route, but it's DHHS that has locked us down to the four reasons for leaving our homes.

[facthunter]

EVEN TRUMP knows that IF you TEST more, you FIND more. It's not however a good reason to stop testing unless you don't like facts which might not suit your proposed course of action...Nev..

[turboplanner]

EVEN TRUMP knows that IF you TEST more, you FIND more. It's not however a good reason to stop testing unless you don't like facts which might not suit your proposed course of action...Nev..

Talking of that there was an outbreak in Woodend yesterday, not sure how many.

[facthunter]

A worker at Coles from word of mouth but not recorded in todays summary, as far as I can see. Nev

[turboplanner]

A worker at Coles from word of mouth but not recorded in todays summary, as far as I can see. Nev

You should get it in the afternoon press conference.