So have any of you Mexicans (Victorians)– smile people - made it across the border by air.

[turboplanner]

Couldn't agree more. We have "flattened the curve".

In Victoria, more correctly we "did" flatten the bell curve.

That was for Wave 1. In fact we flattened it beyond our wildest dreams.

So lock down was removed and our population let loose, partying, filling shopping centres, overflowing out of pubs and restaurants etc.

For the various reasons there was a second series of outbreaks which has developed into another bell curve - wave 2, and as of this afternoon that has been flattening over the past three days.

 

The healthcare system is prepared to cope with the infections we're likely to encounter.

this time around Victoria has several million masks, hundreds of ventilations, a $30 million upgrade completed of the Peter McCallum Hospital which is ready to go for ICU cases, thousands of front line workers ready to go, and the experience of what worked in Wave 1.

HOWEVER: We don't know what we will face, who will behave, and who will ignore the proven safe path, and we could still be out of ventilators in a couple of days and start seeing a horrific toll. The effort put in by a massive team of tracers has so far allowed DHHS to fence off outbreaks, and when they do that the virus in that area dies.

If however it gets away we are stuffed.

 

We seem to have transitioned from a reduction strategy to an elimination strategy - and the various Governments are focusing on eliminating it to the detriment of everything from businesses, the economy, people's mental health and even so far as their superannuation balance in 30 years time!

We have not transitioned; you would be told if we had. You only have to look at the person who started this thread, the pizza party goers a couple of nights ago and the two Sudanese who tried to run through the police cordon around the towers to know that some people have no idea of what the threat is.

 

However the containment policy Australia has been using has been spectacularly successful when you consider the original prediction of 50,000 to 150,000 deaths, and if the flattening of the Melbourne curve continues, and the numbers start to fall, and if NSW have the same success as they apply the same strategy to the Casula out break, and Queensland do the same with their current outbreak, we will have a control method a little like our fire brigades; if the Health people can get in fast, trace the outbreak and shut it down, Australia has a way forward to keep going until a vaccine is found.

 

As far as finance is concerned, it would be nice if we could afford to carry everyone forward to the end of the pandemic, and we aren't far off being able to borrow our way there.

Two bright lights at the end of that tunnel are the very rapid build up of business after Wave 1; perhaps a little too fast, but with good lessons for wave 2., and the soundness of the Stock exchange which has been pumping thousands back into our superannuation accounts so far.

[octave]

https://www.technocracy.news/sweden-was-right-after-all-rest-of-the-world-was-punkd/

Japan had no lock down 2 lets see how they did.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/

 

How do we live with this and with the rest of the world?

They have made this virus into the boggy man with a survival rate of 99.96% Hmmm.

 

I don't have time to write a long reply to this right now but will do later. Sweden is nowhere near hed immunity according the the architect of the Swedish response. We don't even know how long immunity lasts. Sweden's economy has still taken a huge hit and since it's neighbours have closed their borders to Sweden I don't see that it's economy will thrive. Opening borders will be a progressive thing, if we can keep our numbers low we may be able to interact with other countries such as NZ and parts of Asia. If we have high rates such as the US we will remain isolated.

 

People have such a binary attitude thinking that you get ie and you live or die. I am not a death fearing person but I do fear dying in a hideous way or being one of the many people who survive but with debilitating and perhaps long lasting effects.

 

The question is if we follow the US will the economy be fine? Airliners are sitting idle because of travel bans but taking those bans away will not mean that air travel returns to normal. We could as some people suggest let it rip but this would still be a massive hit to the economy and health system. There is no guarantee to herd immunity will work.

 

For myself I would much rather contract covid as part of a gradual thing rather than in a massive wave where the health system struggles. Getting it next year is preferable to getting it now. Already the death rate has dropped slightly due to a better understanding of treatments and new drugs. What a shame it would to die or be disabled by covid now when in 6 months time there may well be better treatments such as retroviral drugs or even a vaccine.

[facthunter]

The risk is herd mentality happening before you get herd immunity (if it's even possible). As we've found, there are serious financial consequences in this so it's worth getting as right as possible. Do we depend on facts or fiction in all of this?. Complacency has not helped and where we work together rather than" I'M OK stuff you lot." the more civilised and collectively successful we will be... We are used to EXPECTING the shelves to be full of fresh food. That requires a lot of coordination and cooperation.. THAT''s Simple compared to THIS. but we take so much for granted and self indulge at every opportunity. No? Nev

[KRviator]

We have not transitioned; you would be told if we had. You only have to look at the person who started this thread, the pizza party goers a couple of nights ago and the two Sudanese who tried to run through the police cordon around the towers to know that some people have no idea of what the threat is.

You're right, we haven't transitioned to an elimination strategy. So why is it that WA is still locked down? Why is it Queensland has only just opened its borders after thumbing their nose at the southern states for weeks? They've "contained" it, but they don't want any of those filthy east-coast scum infesting their 'Covid-Free' colony...

 

However the containment policy Australia has been using has been spectacularly successful when you consider the original prediction of 50,000 to 150,000 deaths, and if the flattening of the Melbourne curve continues, and the numbers start to fall, and if NSW have the same success as they apply the same strategy to the Casula out break, and Queensland do the same with their current outbreak, we will have a control method a little like our fire brigades; if the Health people can get in fast, trace the outbreak and shut it down, Australia has a way forward to keep going until a vaccine is found.

At what cost? Hundreds of thousands of people are out of work, the Government is funding some, temporarily, but again, at what cost? You don't need an Accounting degree to know that the federal budget will not see a surplus for generations to come. How much longer is the population supposed to tolerate these restrictions to guard against a virus that, for the most part, is survivable.

 

As far as finance is concerned, it would be nice if we could afford to carry everyone forward to the end of the pandemic, and we aren't far off being able to borrow our way there.

So who is going to pay the piper? We will be in a budget deficit for decades trying to pay off what we have already spent. Yet alone if the government wants to continue throwing money at people. I would be astounded if the government doesn't use the need to restore the budget as an excuse to increase the GST to 15 or 20%

[Butch]

In the past Wars we sacrificed our young fittest men to beat the enemy !

 

This War we might have to sacrifice those that are frail and elderly.............. I can't see any other way out ! ( by the way at 62 I'm on the front line )

[Flightrite]

In the past Wars we sacrificed our young fittest men to beat the enemy !

 

This War we might have to sacrifice those that are frail and elderly.............. I can't see any other way out ! ( by the way at 62 I'm on the front line )

 

I agree. We are carpet bombing the nation to save a few who where venerable in the first place to a whole host of related viruses! I'm still waiting to see the dead bodies piled up on the streets that match the current hysteria we are being fed with!

Remember everything dies ventually!

Edited July 14, 2020 by Flightrite

[biggles]

I agree. We are carpet bombing the nation to save a few who where venerable in the first place to a whole host of related viruses! I'm still waiting to see the dead bodies piled up on the streets that match the current hysteria we are being fed with!

Remember everything dies ventually!

 

? “ Were vulnerable “.

[tillmanr]

Am I being cynical in thinking that this is a good way to remove the burden of senior welfare worldwide, Also it could be creating jobs to replace older workers. I am in my seventies and feel challenged not only by the attitude of the 20/30 year olds but by many governments around the world.

[Flightrite]

? “ Were vulnerable “.

There's always one!

[biggles]

There's always one!

 

There’s a few on here !

[turboplanner]

These are the ages for the confirmed cases in Victoria. Back in Feb/March it was thought the over 80's were the most at risk but deaths are occurring where people have low immune systems, so the young can die.

From memory two or three currently on ventilators tonight are in their 40s

 

For those talking about jobs, finance, the economy, the CHO said this afternoon said he's not ruling taking us to Stage 4 lockdown; that would focus a few people on the problem.

 

Edited July 14, 2020 by turboplanner

[Butch]

From memory two or three currently on ventilators tonight are in their 40s

Do these people have an affliction that makes them vulnerable ? ( this is the thing I hate, If someone is in good health and Covid takes their life it is a tragedy. If you are in a position where any infection could do the same thing ............why blame Covit 19, it would have probably happened from the common flu !

 

The common flue could compromise their health....... many died last flu season from complications .

[KRviator]

At 10,000 cases, and 109 deaths, a mortality rate of 1% is pretty good. A death rate of 109 in 6 months is wonderful in the big scheme of things - we lost a third of that last Christmas on the roads. Hell, we lose 10x that number on the roads every year...Then there is the estimated 9,000 people that died from lung cancer (predominately caused by voluntary smoking) in 2019 - but do you see the Government banning cigarettes?

 

 

Chart sourced from this Health.gov.au page.

[turboplanner]

Do these people have an affliction that makes them vulnerable ? ( this is the thing I hate, If someone is in good health and Covid takes their life it is a tragedy. If you are in a position where any infection could do the same thing ............why blame Covit 19, it would have probably happened from the common flu !

The common flue could compromise their health....... many died last flu season from complications .

These are people being treated for Covid-19 infection and were included in the afternoon report.

The last I heard about the flu was that our social distancing and hand sanitising had dropped it to 1% of last year, so there's a good chance next time we look like having a bad year that will be the way we go. Definitely lives saved.

[Butch]

These are people being treated for Covid-19 infection and were included in the afternoon report.

The last I heard about the flu was that our social distancing and hand sanitising had dropped it to 1% of last year, so there's a good chance next time we look like having a bad year that will be the way we go. Definitely lives saved.

I don't disagree Turbo I see your point.

 

The thing I'm worried about is the media beat up..........maybe some of the deaths aren't from covid 19 , any infection would have given the same result.

 

Anyone with an immune system that is compromised (chemo, auto immune problems, and poor health ) are at risk from any infection.

[SSCBD]

I am amazed by the amount of Holier Than Thou posters on the website that follow the rules on aviation beyond the letter, are first to criticise any infraction eg low flying, cowboy stuff, etc and also the sticklers on the strict occupational health and safety rules so you don’t die or have an accident that I have read on this site.

 

Yet it seems some posters are quite happy to put a gun to our other members heads and pull the trigger and say best of luck.

 

I also note the amount of sympathy posted, when just one of our fellow flyers die in a crash.

 

Yet reading here I am amazed at the gun ho of let this virus run rampant and to hell with the health issues of other members and want to play Russian Roulette.

 

You can quote all the numbers around the world but how do I put it - HE who casts the first vote HERE to go back as if the covid 19 virus is just an inconvenience and open everything up then is he going to be TOTALLY responsible that kills or maim Australians.

 

I am totally aware of the ongoing economic and social problems – but if this was a OHAS issue with building or mines the risk would be unacceptable – would it not.

 

I don’t know the answer myself - and I am not religious – but maybe all our sins have caught up with us. BUT I would not make any decision that would knowing kill many people FATHERS, MOTHERS, GRANDPARENTS AND SOME KIDS . Many means more than two in my book if it gets rampant in Australia by people who don't care.

Edited July 14, 2020 by SSCBD

[KRviator]

I understand your viewpoint SSCBD, but why shouldn't it be like that?

 

We accept 1180 fatalities in 2019 for the convenience of the motor car but don't ban vehicles. We accept 9,000 fatalities in 2019 from lung cancer, but still allow smoking and tobacco sales to continue unabated. Yet we are supposed to destroy the economy, peoples livelihoods, businesses, lives, and futures to prevent an illness that would likely result in a similar number of fatalities from a similar group of people as a bad influenza season? 800+ deaths from the common flu in the 10 months to October 2019 alone. Where do you draw the line? Where would you draw the line?

 

On a more serious note, by October 6 more than 800 influenza-associated deaths had been officially recorded, the majority of these were due to influenza A (96%, n=782) and the ages ranged from under 12 months of age to 102 years. Where sub-typing information was available, 128 were associated with influenza A (H3N2), 29 with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, and 30 with influenza B. The median age of deaths notified was 86 years.

Source

[Flightrite]

I understand your viewpoint SSCBD, but why shouldn't it be like that?

 

We accept 1180 fatalities in 2019 for the convenience of the motor car but don't ban vehicles. We accept 9,000 fatalities in 2019 from lung cancer, but still allow smoking and tobacco sales to continue unabated. Yet we are supposed to destroy the economy, peoples livelihoods, businesses, lives, and futures to prevent an illness that would likely result in a similar number of fatalities from a similar group of people as a bad influenza season? 800+ deaths from the common flu in the 10 months to October 2019 alone. Where do you draw the line? Where would you draw the line?

 

Well said?

[Butch]

I don’t know the answer myself - and I am not religious – but maybe all our sins have caught up with us. BUT I would not make any decision that would knowing kill many people FATHERS, MOTHERS, GRANDPARENTS AND SOME KIDS . Many means knowing more than two in my book if it gets rampant in Australia.

There is no cure, no vaccine !

 

Do we hide under the bed ? Come out in 2 years to a state of poverty, massive unemployment and a depression like the world has never seen !

[SSCBD]

There is no cure, no vaccine !

 

Do we hide under the bed ? Come out in 2 years to a state of poverty, massive unemployment and a depression like the world has never seen !

Butch - I agree with you also- sorry to sound each way - however I have not an answer to solve both sides of the equation to my satisfaction either.

[walrus]

KR Aviator, the issue with the virus is not it’s lethality but the dynamics of pandemics. The rate of infection without mitigation (blunting the peak, smoothing the curve) ensures that the healthcare system collapses. When that happens, no one gets medical attention for anything. Supply chains instantly freeze up and our society collapses.

 

Think 100,000 people trying to get medical attention for their wives/grandparents/children at once. Do the statistics. No medical services, therefore no workers, supply chains operate just in time systems. When they go down, no food, no fuel, no energy, no job. No country is more than three meals from revolution. Police are monitoring supply chains very carefully since the start for this reason.

 

The authorities are trying to keep us balanced on a knife. edge - no jobs vs. no societ.

[Butch]

Butch - I agree with you also- sorry to sound each way - however I have not an answer to solve both sides of the equation to my satisfaction either.

It's SAD times mate.

 

I wish there was an easy answer!

 

At least all of us on this forum have a chance to vent our anger and frustration, even if we don't agree!

 

Thanks to Ian for his efforts in keeping us all together at REC FLYING !

[Flightrite]

KR Aviator, the issue with the virus is not it’s lethality but the dynamics of pandemics. The rate of infection without mitigation (blunting the peak, smoothing the curve) ensures that the healthcare system collapses. When that happens, no one gets medical attention for anything. Supply chains instantly freeze up and our society collapses.

 

Think 100,000 people trying to get medical attention for their wives/grandparents/children at once. Do the statistics. No medical services, therefore no workers, supply chains operate just in time systems. When they go down, no food, no fuel, no energy, no job. No country is more than three meals from revolution. Police are monitoring supply chains very carefully since the start for this reason.

 

The authorities are trying to keep us balanced on a knife. edge - no jobs vs. no societ.

 

That's an extreme POV that not everyone shares!

[spacesailor]

Another " That's an extreme POV "

400 people died from SMOKE due to back burning, When the cities were choking.

And not a word said !.

spacesailor

[aro]

That's an extreme POV that not everyone shares!

 

Look at what happened in New York. Italy. Have you e.g. read the guidelines hospitals in these places have used to determine who gets ventilators when they run out?

 

Watch what happens in Florida, Texas, Arizona over the next 2 weeks.

 

It seems to take about 3 months to go from just a few cases to totally overwhelmed, if strong action isn't taken i.e. lockdowns. Victoria is about 6 weeks in. NSW looks like it is about 3-4 weeks behind. When you cry "enough" and lock down cases keep climbing for a couple of weeks, doubling or more again before they start to fall.