So have any of you Mexicans (Victorians)– smile people - made it across the border by air.

[aro]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-effects/scientists-just-beginning-to-understand-the-many-health-problems-caused-by-covid-19-idUSKBN23X1BZ

[Flightrite]

ARO see my post #131, get back to me when we have that situation! Till then it's hysteria and fear that is out of control!

[KRviator]

I wouldn't call COVID "overwhelming"...even with the outbreak in Victoria! According to Sonic Health Plus last Flu season we had 310,000 confirmed cases of the flu that caused over 800 fatalities across all age groups.

 

As at 1500 this afternoon Australia had:

10,251 total cases of Covid

108 Fatalities from Covid and;

7,835 "Recovered" cases, so we currently have:

2,308 active cases of Covid-19.

 

Of those, only 90 - yes, 90 are currently admitted to hospital, with only 27 of those in ICU. So purely on a numbers standpoint, of those active cases, barely 1:100 requires ICU admission. Source data

Edited July 14, 2020 by KRviator

[Flightrite]

I wouldn't call COVID "overwhelming"...even with the outbreak in Victoria! According to Sonic Health Plus last Flu season we had 310,000 confirmed cases of the flu that caused over 800 fatalities across all age groups.

 

As at 1500 this afternoon Australia had:

10,251 total cases of Covid

108 Fatalities from Covid and;

7,835 "Recovered" cases, so we currently have:

2,308 active cases of Covid-19.

 

Of those, only 90 - yes, 90 are currently admitted to hospital, with only 27 of those in ICU. So purely on a numbers standpoint, of those active cases, barely 1:100 requires ICU admission. Source data

[ATTACH=full]54688[/ATTACH]

 

You keep coming up with the facts KR, good work!?

If this killer virus is so fatal then why are all the cops and other checkers not wearing full pressure bio hazard suits instead of $1 cheap face masks?

[octave]

I wouldn't call COVID "overwhelming"...even with the outbreak in Victoria! According to Sonic Health Plus last Flu season we had 310,000 confirmed cases of the flu that caused over 800 fatalities across all age groups.

 

As at 1500 this afternoon Australia had:

10,251 total cases of Covid

108 Fatalities from Covid and;

7,835 "Recovered" cases, so we currently have:

2,308 active cases of Covid-19.

 

Of those, only 90 - yes, 90 are currently admitted to hospital, with only 27 of those in ICU. So purely on a numbers standpoint, of those active cases, barely 1:100 requires ICU admission. Source data

[ATTACH=full]54688[/ATTACH]

 

 

Whilst those figures are not enormous they are based on the current restrictions. The idea being put is that we should abandon the restrictions in which case these numbers mean little.

It similar to the anti vax argument. Why do I need to get a polio vax when polio numbers are so low, why are polio numbers so low? because people get the vax.

 

People are using the success we have had in keeping the numbers low to argue that because numbers are low we do not need to do anything.

 

I would rather do what we are doing than to go down the road the US is heading.

[M61A1]

I really don’t see what the fuss is about. If you are one of those who are at significant risk, it’s not difficult to take precautions to protect yourself. Not really much different to current social distancing. If you make the effort to stay away from crowds, avoid being close To others and don’t go around licking handrails and such, it’s really unlikely you will be infected.

[turboplanner]

Fairyland really does exist.

[kgwilson]

I wouldn't call COVID "overwhelming"...even with the outbreak in Victoria! According to Sonic Health Plus last Flu season we had 310,000 confirmed cases of the flu that caused over 800 fatalities across all age groups.

 

As at 1500 this afternoon Australia had:

10,251 total cases of Covid

108 Fatalities from Covid and;

7,835 "Recovered" cases, so we currently have:

2,308 active cases of Covid-19.

 

Of those, only 90 - yes, 90 are currently admitted to hospital, with only 27 of those in ICU. So purely on a numbers standpoint, of those active cases, barely 1:100 requires ICU admission. Source data

 

 

Yes because we have been actively dealing with it by testing and tracing. If nothing had been done our systems would have been totally overwhelmed. Now we have the second wave and are actively dealing with that too. No young people have died here and many are asymptomatic but there are also many who survived but have permanent damage to the lungs, heart etc. Our numbers are accurate due to the diligence of our health professionals and enforcement agencies. Most estimates in the US give a figure 10 times the current 3.5 million cases, approximately 10% of the total population.

 

Yes it is frustrating that so many are out of work and the cost to the nation may never be repaid but the alternative is worse. If you don't think it is a problem how about volunteering to get infected. Chances are you'll be asymptomatic & will be fine but maybe you won't. You may end up getting sick and have lasting damage and of course you may die soon or have your life expectancy somewhat reduced. It seems that you can now get it again so becoming immune may not be correct & it is now found to be transmitted by airborne means. This thing has more tricks in its bag yet to be released.

 

Are you prepared to take the risk? I'm not and I am glad we have authorities who think that way even though the economic cost is massive.

[aro]

Can you multiply by 10? Case numbers were going up by a factor of 10 about every 2 1/2 weeks.

 

Starting at 3 cases/day, 2.5 weeks later 30 cases/day, 2.5 weeks later around 300 cases/day.

 

Another 2.5 weeks and it's 3,000 cases/day, 2.5 weeks after that it's 30,000 cases/day. 5 weeks without action and we would be in deep trouble. We can't cope with 30,000 new cases every day.

 

That's the same way the disease progresses everywhere, unless you lock down to stop the spread. To deny that would happen here you need to find some reason we are special, and the maths that apply to the rest of the world don't apply to us. (Hint: we're not.)

 

More good news:

https://www.newsweek.com/scans-reveal-heart-damage-over-half-covid-19-patients-study-1517293

[old man emu]

A COVID 19 upside. I was talking to the administrator of a reasonably sized local medical practice yesterday. She told me that the number of influenza cases this year was way down, and attributed it to social distancing and staying out of crowded workplaces.

[KRviator]

Whilst those figures are not enormous they are based on the current restrictions.

I agree. The problem I have is summarised by this question: "For how much longer can we keep the restrictions going?"

 

As I've said, hundreds of thousands of people are out of work. The Government is propping up these citizens, which is admirable, however...with vastly reduced taxes coming in, yet ever-increasing support payments going out someone is going to have settle the tab at the end of the party...As it is, many of those job-seekers will likely not return to their pre-covid hours and salaries for months, if not longer. We will be paying this off for decades - which further reduces spending on other, more important, projects.

 

It similar to the anti vax argument. Why do I need to get a polio vax when polio numbers are so low, why are polio numbers so low? because people get the vax.

Except in that case, there is a vaccine, and it works. Covid restrictions were only ever intended to buy us time to get the health system prepared enough that it could cope with the expected increase in case numbers. "Flattening the curve" we were so often told...Except Australia didn't flatten it, we smashed it, and then, suddenly, it wasn't about reducing the number of cases - because if it was, Qld would have opened their borders weeks ago, and WA wouldn't be sitting in their ivory tower pi$$ing on the rest of the country while demanding a further reduction in International arrivals to keep their numbers at 0...I personally know a half-dozen colleagues trapped in Perth who haven't seen their families on the east coast for 6 months, because the WA government mandates they re-enter quarantine if they come back to WA from the east coast. Assuming they were to even get their border pass approved for re-entry in the first place...The health system has had over 6 months to prepare for the increase, yet there is no point if these lockdowns and restrictions continue to come and go with only 27 cases in ICU nationwide...

 

People are using the success we have had in keeping the numbers low to argue that because numbers are low we do not need to do anything.

 

I would rather do what we are doing than to go down the road the US is heading.

The US is hardly a valid comparison - we have universal healthcare. They don't. And we don't have half the apparent conspiracy theorists as they do over there. As a general observation, Australian's do recognise the general threat of Covid-19 and, by and large, are taking sensible precautions because of it. We aren't out there screaming "Liberty or Death!"

 

I'm not saying we don't need to do anything and carry on exactly as before. We still need to be smart about it, practice social distancing so much as practical, wash your hands and don't pick your nose, but as a country we are prepared enough to cope with the expected increase. There is no vaccine available - and given there has never been a vaccine for a corona-based virus likely never will be one for Covid-19 either - so how long are we expected to keep the population under such restrictions and the economy in such a mess?

[Jerry_Atrick]

Well you might not be such a loss but it matters to Facthunter so it matters to me

 

@turbs - that is a little below the belt, ol' chap... Or at least the way I read it, it is.

 

Whilst my business has all but evapourated, it has provided another window of opportunity I am working on... And, while I have been in general support of the response by governments who have taken early and strong responses to the virus - there does come a time where we have to look at adopting measures to allow society to open up again. However, we needed (and probably still need) a period of time of swift and strong measures to protect, whuile we work out enough about the virus to determine next steps. Are we there, yet? I am not sure. In the UK we are getting flare ups. BoJo has just mandated

 

And, for each society, it will be different based on the culture of that society. For example, someone earlier provided data on the affect on Japan, not having had the harsh measures we have had. Well, this may work for Japan, as they are pretty well monocultural (one advantage to being that), and they tend to be a culture of obedience. I don't know if anyone recalls, but when they suffered the tsunami that knocked out Fukashima, there was news footage of younger Japanese walking in deserted streets (calmly) and stopping at Don't Walk pedestrian lights until they changed to walk - without a car on the road (well, maybe one or two were floating by ;-)). This could have been staged by whoever was broadcasting it (or the syndication network), but having worked with a Japanese Bank for a year (one of my clients), that culture of obedience is very strong (The Japanese never wanted to return to Japan for what was admitted to be the amount of freedom they had with their company here - which wasn't much). Sweden, who normally have an obliging population (and somewhat monoculture compared to many other Western European countries) have had a different outcome.

 

One of the problems we (Aussies, Brits, etc) have to overcome, and one of the first steps to transition is an acceptance by all cultures (and I include Bogans and Ferrals) is that we have to comply with social distancing and other protective measures.. and like having sex with someone while you know you are infected with HIV, not complying is a serious criminal offence (over in England and Wales, having sex with someone while you are knowingly infected with HIV is an attempted murder or manslauughter charge - I think). And it has to be enforced. The minority groups, new from war torn countries or established, have to be educated (not just of the measure, but why) and there are no religious or other exceptions... Once some way to emperically meausre that the message had got out and has been understood/agreed upon, then you go to the next phase. etc etc etc. Exactly what those phases are, I haven't though about.. but the above is just a thought...

 

The other thing is there does not appear to be a plan - from most of the western countries (though, Italy, France and Germany appear to be ahead of the curve). The population is getting restless. There needs to be something that they can hang their hat on - even if it has to change as new information comes to light. Without this, they may think things are rudderless and this allows conspiracy theories and general ignorance to propagate unchecked.

[onetrack]

The Technocracy website linked to by SplitS is run by an American God-botherer, an anti-vaxxer, and a Libertarian who believes Govts and Technology are the work of the Devil.

So I take his opinion on, "how great Swedens approach is", with a grain of salt. The bloke is another Donald Trump. Sweden is a mess, and their people are dying in excessive numbers.

 

The bottom line is, there is no guarantee there's such a thing as "herd immunity" against COVID-19. No peer-reviewed research has been carried out on whether there is long-term immunity.

But what is obvious with COVID-19 - just as with all the other more common viruses - there are varieties of this virus - or it can cunningly mutate rapidly to bypass immunity.

 

I see the scientific and health community have already identified at least a couple of strains of COVID-19. They have been able to track down infections because of the COVID-19 signature that identifies where it originates.

As with the influenza virus, there are obviously multiple strains of COVID-19. We get the 'flu one year, and it's one strain, and we get the 'flu the following year, and it's another strain.

 

There are four basic 'flu viruses, three that affect humans and one that only infects cattle. But those 'flu viruses regularly mutate and form slightly different strains, thus ensuring a fair percentage of the global population gets the 'flu each year.

But COVID-19 is very different to the common 'flu strains. It mutates much more readily than the 'flu viruses. It causes long-lasting and severe, respiratory system and other body organ damage. It's not "just the 'flu".

 

COVID-19 has the potential to overwhelm economies if left to run rampant. Those promoting this view seem to fail to recognise this fact, while they claim that the current COVID-19 restrictions are "destroying our economy".

Yes, there are a number of areas in our economy that are being decimated. The airline industry, the cruise shipping industry, and the tourism industry in particular.

 

But I think we probably need to sit back and examine the destructiveness of rampant tourism, anyway. I don't believe any country should rely on rampant tourism as a major source of income.

Venice would be a classic, for an example. Even the Venetians have been protesting about mass tourism. They are now enjoying the relative peacefulness that comes from not being overrun with tourists.

 

Tourism on a vast scale has been responsible for a lot of environmental damage, and this area needs to be addressed. There has been too much unnecessary, "to-ing and fro-ing" by many people.

Business people flying backwards and forwards across the globe on a daily basis, has found to have been virtually completely unnecessary. We waste too much of the Earths precious resources in unnecessary to-ing and fro-ing.

 

As regards the major cost to our economy, that many bemoan will take "decades to recover from" - well, I can say, you must have short memories or have never studied up on previous savage economic impacts.

We paid for the monstrous cost of 2 World Wars without reverting to a Stone Age economy. Yes, taxes went up and we had to pay out a lot of money - but we did it, and recovered pretty rapidly.

 

We endured the staggering impact of the Great Depression that shrank every countrys economy by 50% and which sent unemployment to 35% in Australia - all due to lax financial and share market controls in America.

We recovered from the Great Depression within 5 years, and the unemployment rate and industry went back to normal and our economy recovered.

 

I see nothing like a major, totally destructive hit to the economy with current virus measures, as many "gloom and doom" merchants are forecasting. In fact, many businesses I deal with on a daily basis, are doing quite steady business.

Yes, the international tourism businesses have taken a hit - well, sorry to say, every few years, businesses take a hit of some kind that floors them. They get up again, adapt, change their business model, do something else, and keep going.

 

I was in business all my life. I endured floods, drought, fires, my house burning down, finance interest rates that went to 30% in 1982, a four-fold increase in fuel prices in 18 mths - and near-bankruptcy several times.

But I survived by adapting, changing my business model, changing my sources of income, and going into different fields.

 

There is no chance that the virus-control measures will destroy our nations economy, it's too big, and too adaptable for that. We will take a hit to the bottom line for a few years, so we just need to wear that, as the cost of virus-fighting.

There is no proof that letting the virus run rampant, will result in minimal or no cost to the economy - and to claim that, is nothing short of Trump-style stupidity.

Edited July 15, 2020 by onetrack

[turboplanner]

This DHHS graph for Victoria shows the fourth day of reducing CV cases at 238.

 

[facthunter]

I've not felt we are being or were, deceived in any way. We've been suitably warned and no false promises and hopes indulged in. Plenty of Businesses KNOW we must get it right before "normal" can be entertained. THEY would be as disappointed by the situation as anyone could be. Melbourne was always a place where people mixed and had coffee and meals away from home and walk on footpaths and travel in crowded trams. People always ate out a lot here as the price and quality were good.. An ideal place for a very infectious Virus to spread. . Conditions weren't and never will be the same across a continent as variable as AUSTRALIA.

A blame game is not appropriate at his time, but unfortunately it has been and is still happening. We will ALL be the worse for it. Nev

[KRviator]

So...A question for the masses:

 

COVID-19 is a corona-type virus. As best I can tell, there has never been a successful vaccine for any corona-type virus. Working on the assumption that will continue to be the case, until this thing dies out itself, - if it ever does - it will always be 'out there'. Are we expected to live with these restrictions indefinitely "just because" it is somewhat fatal to the older population should they actually happen to catch it...

 

Plenty of Businesses KNOW we must get it right before "normal" can be entertained.

So, what is this "right" we need to achieve? Is it 0 cases? Is it 0 community transmission? Where has anyone come out and said "This is what has to happen for WA to open our borders" or "If we can achieve <this> then we can recommence international travel". All the health officials and politicians have come up with so far are vague and ill-defined statements about reducing the spread or "protecting our state". We have flattened the curve like they wanted, but it appears it is no longer about that.

[octave]

COVID-19 is a corona-type virus. As best I can tell, there has never been a successful vaccine for any corona-type virus

I believe vaccines development weres well under way for SARS 1 but the virus petered out Scientists were close to a coronavirus vaccine years ago. Then the money dried up.

 

My understanding is that much of the research on a vaccine today is based on this past research. Although developing a vaccine is a difficult proposition, I do believe it can be achieved. I heard a figure this morning regarding current investment into research and whilst I don't recall the exact figure it was ell into the trillions of dollars.

 

A vaccine is not the only hope. Consider HIV a disease that was fatal, no vaccine has been developed however it is rarely fatal these days due you do not usually die of AIDS because of antiviral therapy. In the case of Covid 19 there has been some progress with treatment.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CH91AVrcEFg:541

[Ironpot]

So...A question for the masses:

 

COVID-19 is a corona-type virus. As best I can tell, there has never been a successful vaccine for any corona-type virus. Working on the assumption that will continue to be the case, until this thing dies out itself, - if it ever does - it will always be 'out there'. Are we expected to live with these restrictions indefinitely "just because" it is somewhat fatal to the older population should they actually happen to catch it...

 

So, what is this "right" we need to achieve? Is it 0 cases? Is it 0 community transmission? Where has anyone come out and said "This is what has to happen for WA to open our borders" or "If we can achieve <this> then we can recommence international travel". All the health officials and politicians have come up with so far are vague and ill-defined statements about reducing the spread or "protecting our state". We have flattened the curve like they wanted, but it appears it is no longer about that.

 

 

This has been my query all the way through because we will all have to come into contact with it at some stage. I have reached the conclusion that, in Australia, we are simply attempting to ensure that we do not overwhelm our Health Services at any stage and it will simmer-on like this for many months, if not years.

 

However, my personal experience of the SARS epidemic gives me hope that it may just fizzle out at some stage.

[aro]

COVID-19 is a corona-type virus. As best I can tell, there has never been a successful vaccine for any corona-type virus.

 

There has never been a particular need for one in humans until now, so no money to develop one. My understanding is that vaccines are used against coronaviruses in other animals (much cheaper to develop and test I imagine).

 

Immunologists are predicting that multiple different vaccines will be successful out of the 100+ under development.

 

In the last few days I think 2 different vaccines have reported success in phase 1 trials - no safety concerns identified, and antibodies produced against the virus.

[turboplanner]

I have reached the conclusion that, in Australia, we are simply attempting to ensure that we do not overwhelm our Health Services at any stage and it will simmer-on like this for many months, if not years.

The Health departments haven't been telegraphing their strategies, but I think Health Service Capacity is one of the biggest trenches they will defend, because the Victorian Premier opened up on this a couple of days ago explaining Victoria's total lock down of the towers when he said something like "when we start filing our hospitals we will reach capacity very quickly and once we do that you will see mass deaths, because we don't have the capacity to treat anyone, so we don't want to get to that point where the front line is our hospital capacity; we want to avoid that at any cost. You'd realise what that means to people out in the country - a nothing we can do fir you in the cities messages. From what I saw during the Wave 1 lock down, country people were transferred ti incubators located in the cities by RFDS, and on at least one day RFDS was reported at full capacity doing transfers.

 

So we have this massive team made up of people not only from Victoria, but from the other States as well working to interview and trace thousands of people who have been contacted by positive cases. If Victoria can clean up its current outbreaks that team will move seamlessly to any State in need, all to prevent hospical capacity determining our limit to reducing the virus.

 

You can see from the graph I posted early that active numbers in Victoria have reduced for four days, and also giving us heart is the fact that the big numbers from the Towers, Al Taqua school, Hume should all be in those numbers, but you can also see from the cum line that we can't be comfortably sure.

 

However, it looks as if this is a good way to fight the virus outbreaks - like a bushfire; get in fast, hit it hard, try to knock it right out. The backburning is those cellular lock downs.

 

If that goes on for five or ten years, and there's still no virus then that's where we're headed.

 

However, my personal experience of the SARS epidemic gives me hope that it may just fizzle out at some stage.

It does seem to die quickly, once the people in an active cell are isolated and measures are taken to elminate the spread.

In Keysborough, Victoria, at a duck farm in the 1970s Avian Influenza broke out among the ducks and had the potential to wipe out a lot of people in the local area, more if it got into the wild duck population. The Department of Health ordered the ducks to be destroyed, and a million ducks are buried in this City suburb. This history was given as a reason not to build around 10,000 houses over the top of them, and I finished up dealing with the Head of WHO for the Pacific who was based in Hawaii. He was very impressive, asking for all the details, talking to a couple of scientists, and coming back with the decision that given the size of the kill, location etc. most of the virus would have died in the first week, but they were agreed that no virus would be living after six weeks. Since this was several years later they said that the site would be inert so people could dig foundations, gardens, etc and there would be no threat.

[Flightrite]

Ah got out for a spin today left all the fear and hysteria behind!?

Life's good??

[onetrack]

Where has anyone come out and said "This is what has to happen for WA to open our borders"

 

W.A.'s Premier Mark McGowan is very clear on the process whereby W.A. will re-open its borders. It will be when he and W.A. Health officials are convinced that the Eastern States have their virus cases under total control.

W.A. is the success story of the nation, because the virus came into W.A. via overseas travellers on ships and aircraft, and we managed to nail down those cases before community transmission was widespread.

McGowan has unparalleled support for his approach to virus control - and his approach has been the no-nonsense, firm approach, that quite likely comes from his military background and training, as a Naval lawyer.

 

https://www.wa.gov.au/organisation/department-of-the-premier-and-cabinet/covid-19-coronavirus-wa-roadmap

[Jerry_Atrick]

A friend of mine in London was scpetial about all of the controls put in place to control the outbreak.. he was effectively crying it was all a hoax, etc, etc. Turns out he has just sold his London flat and moved to Yorkshire to get away COVID...

[cooperplace]

There has never been a particular need for one in humans until now, so no money to develop one. My understanding is that vaccines are used against coronaviruses in other animals (much cheaper to develop and test I imagine).

 

Immunologists are predicting that multiple different vaccines will be successful out of the 100+ under development.

 

In the last few days I think 2 different vaccines have reported success in phase 1 trials - no safety concerns identified, and antibodies produced against the virus.

Yes, there are good vaccines against canine coronaviruses. There will be a vaccine, or probably many vaccines, against SARS-CoV2. The questions are: when? how effective? how durable will the immunity be?

[Jerry_Atrick]

And how soon to get to the bulk of the population...