Is this the end of Rotax

[SSCBD]

Brand new petrol-powered cars could be illegal by 2035 as traditional service stations are closed down under a radical climate change plan.

The Grattan Institute has called for cars with an internal combustion engine to be phased out within 14 years, at least as brand new vehicles.

They argued this was the only way Australia could have net zero carbon emissions by 2050, as promised by the United States, Japan, South Korea and the UK.

Fully-electric cars are hardly popular, despite the environmental benefits, with just 526 sold in June among the 110,664 that last month left showrooms for a miniscule market share of 0.5 per cent, Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries data showed.

Tesla, the only electric-only car maker with showrooms in Australia, doesn't share its sales data.

Cars with no tailpipe emissions are pricey, starting at $50,000 for a Nissan Leaf rising to $200,000 for the new Porsche Taycan.

Despite that, the Grattan Institute report by Tony Wood, Alison Reeve and James Ha said brand new petrol cars needed to be outlawed by 2035 so Australia would have far fewer polluting cars by 2050.

If new petrol and diesel vehicles continue to be sold through the 2030s and 2040s, the fleet will be far from zero-emissions in 2050 unless government policy or a lack of petrol/diesel re-fuelling locations forces them to be scrapped before the end of their lives,' they said.

'Set a mandatory fleet emissions standard, applied to the sale of all new light vehicles, tightening to zero emissions by 2035 to set an end date for sales of new petrol and diesel light vehicles.'

 

 

[turboplanner]

14 years is an impossible cycle in terms of design, test, tool, production so I wouldn’t get too excited. Under 5% market share in Australia and management is looking at firing you. EV got to a heady 0.75% but have fallen back to 0.5%.

[skippydiesel]

Naa! not for a long while yet - to answer your subject title. Why? - cause until we get a big breakthrough in light weight for energy delivered, battery technology,  electric powered aircraft will be confined to the training area. 

[skippydiesel]

59 minutes ago, SSCBD said:

Brand new petrol-powered cars could be illegal by 2035 as traditional service stations are closed down under a radical climate change plan.

..............................................................

'Set a mandatory fleet emissions standard, applied to the sale of all new light vehicles, tightening to zero emissions by 2035 to set an end date for sales of new petrol and diesel light vehicles.'

 

Your Australia only view (above) does not represent the rest of the World - The big cities ,where there is horrible pollution, are all going EV as are the smaller (land area/travel distance) European countries. The big cities are where most of the World population lives, so EV is already viable in these locations and enlightened governments are promoting their introduction (unlike our ultra conservative, faith guided, leadership).

 

The cost  per vehicle is much the same argument as when all vehicles were hand made luxuries, that is until the likes of Henry Ford got into the act and a pathetic attempt by the far right to be a King Canute.

[onetrack]

The problems will come when increasing taxes on "polluting fuels" will make it unviable to own an ICE-powered machine of any type.

 

In Europe, the EU is already setting the stage for vastly increased taxes on aviation fuels. We are bound to follow.

 

https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/14/carbon-tax-alternative-fuels-brussels-unveils-drastic-measures-to-slash-emissions-by-2030

[Marty_d]

2 hours ago, turboplanner said:

14 years is an impossible cycle in terms of design, test, tool, production so I wouldn’t get too excited. Under 5% market share in Australia and management is looking at firing you. EV got to a heady 0.75% but have fallen back to 0.5%.

54% of the new car market in Norway.  We don't need design / test / tool / production, the vehicles are already available, just that existing manufacturers see the Australian market as too difficult due to lack of progressive policy in the area.

[Thruster88]

To difficult or is the Australian government teat to dry. We need to remember where the milk comes from. I dont see the need for my tax dollars to go to vehicle manufacturers. The product will get better and cheaper and people will buy them with out government help. As I have said before, would the electrification of model aircraft worked out better with government "help".

[turboplanner]

8 hours ago, Marty_d said:

54% of the new car market in Norway.  We don't need design / test / tool / production, the vehicles are already available, just that existing manufacturers see the Australian market as too difficult due to lack of progressive policy in the area.

Norway area 385,207 square kilometres

New Zealand 268,021

UK 242,495

Australia 7,692,000

 

 

It's the northern hemisphere and these smaller countries that EV proponents quote, but in Australia, if you need to get from Mackay to an appointment with a specialist it's a 4 hour triip at 100 km/hr with nothing in between.

 

Australia has longer applications.

 

Even in Tasmania we have long stretches of 100 km/hr, and up in the NE there are some very high hours distances. From Wynyard to Zeehan I once almost ran a renhtal car out of fuel. The Elders Stocl Agent in Mount Gambier still needs to pick up clients and drive them to Hay in NSW to buy sheep, then get them back that night, all at around 160 km.hr

 

Australia has good infrastructure of Petrol stations which could be expanded or duplicated for EV, and in many places there are queues waitijng for the 5 minute fills. Imagine what the queues woiuld be like waiting for 30 minutue or multi-hour charges for EVs - a totally different infrastructure is needed.

 

However we don't have to debate these things anoy more, we on't have to be subjected to the airy "someone will invent a battery that gives all day range; they said horses couldn't be replaced too but look what happened."

 

The show has started, EV are on the market for sale, the tribe is speaking with their feet at the showrooms, and we now have some years of market share data.

 

There's now no shortage of RHD Manufacturers with EV on the market in Australia, but there is a problem with out traditional US suuppliers in that they'v opted to get out of the RHD market becaiuse it's too expensive to tool up. This is a bigger threat to Australia than just a chage to EV, because those US makes perforjmed very well in climates like Arizona, Nevada, Taxas, New Mexico etc where there were big distances  in hot weather, and suited Australia well.

 

What Australian suppliers have done is go part-way releasing a lot of "electrified" vehicles (hybrids) to see how they do.

 

In the meantime the industry is starting to look at petrol replacing diesel to get better emission performance, and the new compression ignition petrol engines burning around 4 Ll/100 km  in medium platforms are well ahead of EVs being charged by Coal-fired power Stations in terms of total CO2 output. It's total CO2 Australia has to use, not tailpipe CO2, and if you look ahead to speculations like the one this thread is making, and you push it out to 2050, you'd still need nuclear power stations to meet the charging demand, so CI starts to look good from a policy point of view, with no need to buiold new power stations.

 

 

[kgwilson]

In 2020 there were 8.5 million electric vehicles worldwide. By 2030 a conservative estimate is there will be 116 million. In 2020 the global fleet grew by more than 3 million. The growth is exponential. In China BYD sold 42,000 EVs in June. The Tesla Cybertruck has over 1.2 million advance orders and it is not even in production yet. The BYD EA1 (Dolphin) is expected to be on the market by the end of the year with a price of around $US 20,000 & the Tesla 2 next year priced at the same level as an ICE VW Golf. The cheapest BYD EV is currently around $US10,000. Toyota seems to be bucking the trend and is pushing hydrogen. The big development area though is China & Toyota may find itself losing the race.

 

The new Lithium ion phosphate batteries are lighter and more powerful. Then there are solid state batteries that will charge from flat to full charge in 5 minutes. Several Chinese manufacturers are promising 1000km range and 1 million kilometre battery life.

 

As for where is the power coming from, well that is simple, solar, wind and battery storage. The proposed solar/wind 15,000 hectare farm in WA will produce as much power as the entire Australian grid produces today though most will be converted to hydrogen & ammonia due to transmission cost. Current estimates are that by 2040 the world will have twice as much electricity as it needs 99.9% of the time. None of that will be from fossil fuel sources.

[turboplanner]

We live in Australia, in 2020.  Our annual sale of Motor Vehicles is around 1 million, so serious numbers per year to be supported by infrastructure.

If EV sell they sell.

No amount of puffery can change that.

Edited July 19, 2021 by turboplanner

[aro]

14 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

Our annual sale of Motor Vehicles is around 1 million

How many of those have been designed specifically for Australian requirements?

 

We don't have a car industry anymore, and manufacturers are not likely to keep a ICE line going just for Australia. We need to plan for electric vehicles, otherwise our choices are going to be limited and very expensive, at best.

 

The reality: most people don't do 400+km trips through the outback where there is nothing in between. Most people will buy an electric car because it fills their needs, and will be cheaper and more convenient once we pass the "early adopter" phase. This will make ICE vehicles rare and even more expensive.

[turboplanner]

1 minute ago, aro said:

How many of those have been designed specifically for Australian requirements?

I studied Industrial Design, Jack Telnack from Ford Motos Co was one of my mentors. He was designing for Australian conditions and he went back to the US after designing the Falcon 2 door hardtop (and went on to become Head of Design in Detoit). So that was about the time designing cars for Australia ended. Holden were a little later, but it was never the same again. We used the platforms for a couple of decades and then started pulling platforms from overseas. The Commodore design came from Germany for the 1979 release. We still retained some greater designers, and the Commodore Ute was a good example of what they could produce, but the base was overseas.

 

There was also still plenty of engineering for years, but today we are selling overseas product and again beginning to see hose leaks and trim failures because of our hotter climate offset by lower prices and a huge increase in models available.

[aro]

Yes but that's my point. We get what other countries are making. If they stop making ICE vehicles, we won't get ICE vehicles - whether we like it or not.

 

The number of companies investing in ICE cars (let alone right hand drive ICE) is going to drop very swiftly.

[skippydiesel]

Just had a quick read on the Mazda Skyactiv-X  - certainly a step forward but hardly a revolution and not a real compression ignition engine as suggested. Its a hybrid of compression/spark ignition able to burn petrol more efficiently, thanks in large part to diesel like compression ratios, which in tern require  diesel engine levels of robust construction (read weight)

[skippydiesel]

9 minutes ago, aro said:

Yes but that's my point. We get what other countries are making. If they stop making ICE vehicles, we won't get ICE vehicles - whether we like it or not.

 

The number of companies investing in ICE cars (let alone right hand drive ICE) is going to drop very swiftly.

Australia has never had the sort of market demand, for vehicles, that would get the (real) attention of the big manufactures.

 

For the most part European/Japanese/Korean/etc cars will do our highly urbanised population very nicely - reasonably good roads, short distances and temperate climate (coastal).

 

For those of us (a tiny minority) who live inland, best you hold on to something a bit more robust - we may see Cuba style differences in our vehicle choices

[turboplanner]

13 minutes ago, aro said:

Yes but that's my point. We get what other countries are making. If they stop making ICE vehicles, we won't get ICE vehicles - whether we like it or not.

The number of companies investing in ICE cars (let alone right hand drive ICE) is going to drop very swiftly.

If all manufacturers stopped making ICE vehicles and sold EV, yes that's what we would get, but as I said, we are past the sepculation phase and it's now reality.

That's why we should be looking at market share by country now.

The world of vehicle manurfacturing is huge and has worked seamlessly with big changes for years.

For example Califiornia has been legislating different standareds for years without problems.

If the UK mandates EV, may well happen, but if Russia doesn't, they become a supplier of EV available to Australia.

The workd would go on, just as it did when Australia stopped manufacturing Commodore and Falcon, and opened the showroom doors selling all sorts of cars from aruond the world.

So it would be interesting to see the EV market share by Country.

 

[kgwilson]

There are plenty of 50+ year old aircraft in the Australian fleet and that is mainly due to the forced maintenance regime in order to keep them flying legally and the manufacturers who still exist are doing nicely out of supplying expensive spare parts.

 

Land cruisers and the like were expensive to buy and maintain but many have been round the clock 5 or 6 times and still keep going. The problem will be that spare parts will become harder to obtain after 2030 which may spawn a bunch of OEM parts manufacturers if the demand is there.

[turboplanner]

16 minutes ago, skippydiesel said:

Just had a quick read on the Mazda Skyactiv-X  -  which in tern require  diesel engine levels of robust construction (read weight)

You can pick that up by comparing kerb mass of similar Mazda Specifications.

[turboplanner]

 

11 minutes ago, skippydiesel said:

For the most part European/Japanese/Korean/etc cars will do our highly urbanised population very nicely - reasonably good roads, short distances and temperate climate (coastal).

 

For those of us (a tiny minority) who live inland, best you hold on to something a bit more robust - we may see Cuba style differences in our vehicle choices

The first group of cars is no longer at the top of the Australian market share ladder.

 

The secoind group, led by light commercials are now the top sellers because of their versatility to commute, tow a boat or horse float or caravan, go up into the mountains at weekends etc.

 

So this complicates matters.

[Flightrite]

Modern day fairytale stuff:-) At my age I'll still enjoy my planes/cars till the tooth fairy becomes a reality & by then it won't bother me:-)

[pmccarthy]

My restoration hobbies include 1932 Chev, 1936 Royal Enfield, 1949 and 1951 Ariels, 1949 Bentley and several 1970s cars and bikes. I can buy nearly every part from their home countries as NOS or repro, and can find a Youtube video on how to do something. If this is an indication, and considering developments with 3D printing, getting parts for ICE vehicles in the future will not be a problem.

[spacesailor]

IF the Sheet hits the fan !.

The price of HORSES will go through the roof !.

Bring back those old concrete horse troughs.

The police still use them, and no registration, even more they don,t need sealed roads. 

Saves an awfull lot of Rate payers money,  not upgrading all those roads.

spacesailor

[turboplanner]

17 minutes ago, pmccarthy said:

My restoration hobbies include 1932 Chev, 1936 Royal Enfield, 1949 and 1951 Ariels, 1949 Bentley and several 1970s cars and bikes. I can buy nearly every part from their home countries as NOS or repro, and can find a Youtube video on how to do something. If this is an indication, and considering developments with 3D printing, getting parts for ICE vehicles in the future will not be a problem.

There are around 20 million vehicles currently registered in Australia, so the whole concept of reducing CO2 output has to start with introducing a CO2 limit for new vehicles (currently there is none, then selling EV in a market where many will buy ICE while they can, and then refurbish for as long as they can , e.g. post WW2 when new cars weren't available, people kept some 1920s cars going.

 

So if you are planning for CO2 reduction, you have tio deal with a complex sliding scale.

 

However, first you have to look at all CO2 output sources. Vehicles are a small part of the whole, but a highly visible reminder to look at.

[turboplanner]

1 minute ago, spacesailor said:

The price of HORSES will go through the roof !.

 

Horses and cattle are two of the bigger propducers of CO2. Would be interesting to see some figures and compare them with ICE and EV/Power station totals.

[spacesailor]

And

When the government pulls the plug on IC cars, a lot of country folk Will go to town on the old mares back.

New job for coucil worker '  shit shoveler '. 

 Great for roses, & fruit trees.

i can remember the horse & carts of my chidhood !.

In an English city .

one generation from 'new fangled cars with handles to start them, to the death of the same IC car.

Also saw ' Pickfords steam Lorry & steam tracktion engines, ( steamroller ) working on the roads

spacesailor