Is this the end of Rotax

[walrus]

23 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

Trains!  Its not so much the trains as the rail system - after 50+ years I still find it hard to believe that Australia has not had the foresight to modernise its rails systems.

 

A modern rail line (without road X rail crossings) enabling trains to cruise at 200 kph (or more) with automated freight handling at stopping points, would be hard to match for energy and time (door to door)efficiency.

Skippy, you are showing your age. Victoria didn’t invest in a rail system after about 1950 for one very good reason that made perfect sense at the time: - we had Communist controlled, bloody minded railway and tram unions that made public transport an expensive and unreliable nightmare for the general public. That was why we built freeways instead.

 

‘’The unions were always going on strike on any pretext. Productivity was awful. Any new investment in technology was declared “black” by the unions until more pay was extracted, even then technology was hobbled by outdated work practices so that it never produced a positive return on investment…..

 

‘’So we gave up investing in what was then a shyte  form of transport, operated by communist scum. It was only after Jeff Kennett broke up the unions that investment in public transport again became possible.

 

‘’As an older Melburnian, I can tell you that even Today I will NEVER rely on public transport and as for using it to shift goods in a business setting, the risk is just too great. Give me a truck that I own every time.

[turboplanner]

11 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

Turbo - You certainly know your HGV stuff but as an occasional driver of 40 years, all I can tell you is that the view/visibility from a forward control (cab over) beats the heck out of the conventional/long bonnet style.

I agree with you there, but you learn something all the time. I was trialling a new Cab over Prime Mover with Murray Goulburn on milk tankers. I gave the driver a couple of weeks to get used to it and then went out with him for the day's pickups. After the second dairy where, between the dairy and the house we'd just driven up one lanes bordered by 3PL farm machinery then reversed the trailer around into another lane to back it up to the dairy I sais "How do you like the forward visibility compared to the bonneted trucks." He said " You get your judgement after about a week in the bonneted truck then they're mutch the same."  Fpr most applications where people can be walking across, and cars passing you on the left, they are the better choice.

11 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

As far as suspension goes - very limited experience of either designs on really rough roads - so find the ride comparable.

It's not the rough roads, but the harmonics on highways.

11 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

Spent  6 months helping a mate out with a hot mix semi - mostly in north Sydney. Prim mover a conventional KW - bloody awful in those very tight streets and the way cars would pass & cut in, complexly disappear under the bonnet - no chance of seeing if they were braking - just terrifying.

Yes, wrong application for the KW, and ideal for Cab overs with short wheelbase. Peope buy a cheap second hand prime mover, but a tipper body on it, so get a low prime cost. A lot of them are costed for a single contract, but the driver suffers.

[skippydiesel]

13 hours ago, walrus said:

Skippy, you are showing your age. Victoria didn’t invest in a rail system after about 1950 for one very good reason that made perfect sense at the time: - we had Communist controlled, bloody minded railway and tram unions that made public transport an expensive and unreliable nightmare for the general public. That was why we built freeways instead.

 

‘’The unions were always going on strike on any pretext. Productivity was awful. Any new investment in technology was declared “black” by the unions until more pay was extracted, even then technology was hobbled by outdated work practices so that it never produced a positive return on investment…..

 

‘’So we gave up investing in what was then a shyte  form of transport, operated by communist scum. It was only after Jeff Kennett broke up the unions that investment in public transport again became possible.

 

‘’As an older Melburnian, I can tell you that even Today I will NEVER rely on public transport and as for using it to shift goods in a business setting, the risk is just too great. Give me a truck that I own every time.

I dont doubt your history lesson but would point out:

• Doesn't change the logic of my statement 
• It would seem that most/every "advanced" econamy of the recent past invested in road system's, where the up and coming, such as Japan/ China/ Central Asian invested heavily in rail to their present day advantage. The UK actually down graded/undermined its otherwise excellent rail system (Dr Beeching) in favour of roads.

Communism has/had little if anything to do with the radical/extreme union behavior of the past - look more to the long entrenched history of mistreatment of workers, by the wealthy minority, that created an environment where change had to happen. As is so often the case the change only occurred when force was applied.

 

An truly egalitarian society does not accept the development/existence of engineered haves/nots, the existence of an incredibly wealthy minority/poverty, advantage/disadvantage, the promotion of faith based lobbies - this is not Communism (which I abhor) it is an understanding that we as a society do ourselves a disservice (in the long term) by marginalising/disenfranchising large sections of our own community.

[spacesailor]

Now those Commie,s have gone, the  BEAUROCRATES HAVEtaken their place.

Transaviea! . GONE as with ALL inventive Australia producs, " not here !. buy American  ".

Why roads .. JUST LOOK AT  $ MULTI,MILLIONS THEY TAKE OFF THE SUFFERING MOTORIST,

TOLLS Are big business.

spacesailor

[turboplanner]

1 hour ago, spacesailor said:

Now those Commie,s have gone, the  BEAUROCRATES HAVEtaken their place.

Transaviea! . GONE as with ALL inventive Australia producs, " not here !. buy American  ".

Why roads .. JUST LOOK AT  $ MULTI,MILLIONS THEY TAKE OFF THE SUFFERING MOTORIST,

TOLLS Are big business.

spacesailor

Coastal Ships vs Rail vs Road are commercial decisions in Australia.

 

Successful rail operations are:

• Ore transport from mine to port in WA
• Coal from mine to port in the Bowen Basin in Queensland
• Container freight from Melbourne to Perth.

The Melbourne to Perth train is privately owned. Locos pull a Kitchen/lounge/bunk car and tanker. The train doesn't stop. The drivers do their shifts, rec and sleep on board and the locos refuel on the run.

 

[mkennard]

Watched this on youtube today. I haven't gone through all the threads to see if this has been posted already sorry.

 

[turboplanner]

Is this the end of Rotax - OP post"

 

I thought a good place to look would be Austria, since it’s home to Rotax.

 

We are constantly being beaten up in Australia about poor CO2 emission performance compared to places like Europe in terms of EV take up.

 

In Australia EV market share, rose to 0.75% of the total new vehicle market last year but has dropped back 0.5%.

 

I was surprised to find Austria’s was only 5.48% early last year.

 

I was even more surprised to find that the figures had been doctored by being padded with Hybrid market figures.

 

When the Hybrids were taken out the genuine EV market was just 3.01%

 

Based on that, I wouldn’t expect to see too much government interference with Rotax coming from Austria.

 

In Australia we don’t measure CO2 in Motor Vehicles; one of the reasons being CO2 output is dependent on the combination of vehicles and fuel quality burnt.

 

We don’t measure CO2 output in recreational aircraft, which would be insignificant, and I didn’t find any mention of it in Austrian documents, so we could probably be confident that the end of Rotax is not imminent.

 

Edited July 31, 2021 by turboplanner

[mkennard]

There is only one direction EV's are going at the moment around the world. Australia, thanks to the govt is a laggard. Likely because of this Australia might become a dumping ground of ICE cars.

 

Anyway, here is a bit of light reading.

 

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/07/electric-cars-have-much-lower-life-cycle-emissions-new-study-confirms/

[mkennard]

I can't wait till the tech starts coming to aircraft, this is one of the reasons I prefer mogas to avgas. Maybe I'm wrong but minus the lead and I assume cleaner burning. Rotax has been trying to improve their current line up if you can afford the newer engines but one day they need to change, we all need to change.

[turboplanner]

51 minutes ago, mkennard said:

There is only one direction EV's are going at the moment around the world. Australia, thanks to the govt is a laggard. Likely because of this Australia might become a dumping ground of ICE cars.

 

Anyway, here is a bit of light reading.

 

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/07/electric-cars-have-much-lower-life-cycle-emissions-new-study-confirms/

Australia isn't a laggard, there are plenty of EV makes and models on sale. All you have to do is buy one.

The dumping gound idea came from social media - people who knew nothing about the car industry broadcasting what seemed like a good selling feature for EV....which didn't work.

 

Did you read the link you posted? Wasn't very honest was it. Made a straw man comparison about the extra cost of building and scrapping EV, vs  a claim of 60 - 68% lifetime emissions savings (presumably supposed to mean CO2 savings), then just forgot to mention the need to charge the EV, and rewire the street and grid infrastructure and add extra power stations (in Australia's case double the number of power stations and competely replace the power grid).

 

I also notice that the northern hemisphere EV evangelists are starting to panic with the low numbers of EV, and have started to call Hybrids electric vehicles, which they aren't. Their exhausts produce CO2 because they are powered by an ICE engine. There's even a second-bite designation for plug in hybrids. There would be a minute reduction in CO2 compared with an ICE car during acceleration, and if the car is fitted with ICE-Off mode, but in the scale of all motor vehicle CO2 emissions in Australia adding up to less that 5% of our total, we would be better off fitting our cattle with gas collectors and selling a Methane car.

 

These are the designations creeping in to Europe

 

BEV    Battery Electric Vehicle

HEV    Hybrid Electric Vehicle

PHEV  Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

FCEV  Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (Compressed Liquid Hydrogen) 

 

The last one has risen again like Jesus from the 1990s.

As we saw in the Austrian market share figures, if your EV figures aren't living up to the hype, you can get around double your share by faking hybrids as EVs.

 

 

 

Edited August 1, 2021 by turboplanner

[Thruster88]

5 hours ago, mkennard said:

There is only one direction EV's are going at the moment around the world. Australia, thanks to the govt is a laggard. Likely because of this Australia might become a dumping ground of ICE cars.

 

Anyway, here is a bit of light reading.

 

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/07/electric-cars-have-much-lower-life-cycle-emissions-new-study-confirms/

I am interested to know how you think the government should act to speed up the introduction of electric vehicles. A tax on ice for the poor or a tax break on electric for the rich? We could just wait until people want to buy an electric car because it will be cheaper and practical for their situation.  

 

[jackc]

I will never buy one, because they won’t make what I want.  All I want is 150km range, rubber floor mats, hand crank windows, no fancy displays or CD player.

Think back to the early ‘60s VW beetles.  Just a basic set of wheels for a realistic price.

[Ignition]

I haven't been on this forum in long time but this thread got me...

There is a lot of misinformation in this thread. Mostly outdated comments that just aren't true today and I'd like to comment on those.

 

 

On 19/07/2021 at 7:58 PM, turboplanner said:

14 years is an impossible cycle in terms of design, test, tool, production so I wouldn’t get too excited. Under 5% market share in Australia and management is looking at firing you. EV got to a heady 0.75% but have fallen back to 0.5%.

Tubz, that may have been true a long time ago, but it is not true today.

 

Tesla (the company) was founded in 2003, 18 years ago. The Tesla Model 3 was first mentioned in 2006, however the company was focused on the Model S and X until 2012, it wasn't until 2015 that their primary focus was on the design and development of the Model 3. 2 years later in 2017, the Model 3 was in production. Basically, when the company finally decided to get serious about the Model 3 - design, test, tool & production took around 5 years (2012-2017).

Not only this, for the production infrastructure, it took just 10 months start to finish for Tesla's Shanghai production factory to be built from application permit to completed construction, with the first cars rolling off the production line 2 months later.

So, 14 years is not impossible, it's actually slow, given that you can start a company and turn it into the worlds most valuable automaker in less than 18 years.

 

 

On 20/07/2021 at 7:24 AM, turboplanner said:

It's the northern hemisphere and these smaller countries that EV proponents quote, but in Australia, if you need to get from Mackay to an appointment with a specialist it's a 4 hour triip at 100 km/hr with nothing in between.

Townsville is 386km from Mackay which is around 4 hours so I'm guessing this is where that specialist trip scenario is for. If you leave Mackay with a full battery in any Tesla, or even a Hyundai Kona, you can easily do the trip, charge at the destination while you're at your appointment and return to Mackay, easily.

But there also isn't nothing in between, the longest distance between dedicated charging stations on that route is 126km from Mackay to Proserpine, and there are several other locations along the way with dedicated chargers already - so even EVs with a much lower range will handle the trip.

 

 

On 20/07/2021 at 7:24 AM, turboplanner said:

Even in Tasmania we have long stretches of 100 km/hr, and up in the NE there are some very high hours distances. From Wynyard to Zeehan I once almost ran a renhtal car out of fuel. The Elders Stocl Agent in Mount Gambier still needs to pick up clients and drive them to Hay in NSW to buy sheep, then get them back that night, all at around 160 km.hr

Wynyard to Zeehan is 152km... most EVs available today in Australia can handle that easily.

As for 160km/h? That's illegal everywhere in Australia last I checked. But, lets say its a real scenario, Mount Gambier to Hay is 629km, and there are already about 10 places you can charge at on or near that shortest/most direct route. Very doable.

 

 

On 20/07/2021 at 7:24 AM, turboplanner said:

Australia has good infrastructure of Petrol stations which could be expanded or duplicated for EV, and in many places there are queues waitijng for the 5 minute fills. Imagine what the queues woiuld be like waiting for 30 minutue or multi-hour charges for EVs - a totally different infrastructure is needed.

Most people leave home with a full charge and don't need to charge again until later in the week with Australia's average usage, I even know some people who charge their cars at the shops while they do their weekly groceries. Charging station usage is a completely different concept to fuel stations, you can't look at it in the same way because it's very different, for an EV a dedicated charging station is more of a backup than a necessity.

Australia also has pretty good coverage for EV charging stations, see the map: https://www.plugshare.com

 

 

On 20/07/2021 at 8:06 PM, skippydiesel said:

Electric cars, buses and light commercials will be a reality - in our cities. It will happen - not sure when but is definitely on the way. 

They're already here... I took an electric bus in the outer suburbs of Sydney two weeks ago. A large number of the public buses in Canberra are electric.

There is also an Australian company that does electric light trucks - https://www.sea-electric.com/

 

 

On 21/07/2021 at 7:36 AM, planesmaker said:

Need we mention the large tax revenue from fuel sales will have to be replaced with???

It's a bit premature, but here's an example of how EVs are taxed for road use: https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/registration/registration-fees/zlev-road-user-charge

 

 

On 22/07/2021 at 2:22 AM, coljones said:

if you are without off-street parking, how will you solve the problem of charging your car?

Supermarkets, destination charging etc.

As I mentioned earlier in this, I've got some friends who charge their cars when they do their weekly grocery shop, which covers their daily usage for the rest of the week.

 

 

On 22/07/2021 at 2:22 AM, coljones said:

For the rest, even those in the sticks, the biggest problem is distance, which, except for those doing long distances, is not a problem at all. I very seriously doubt that the vast majority of drivers in Australia would have a daily commute of more than 100km and on a trip of more than 300.

Correct, the average Australian drives just 36.4km a day - https://www.budgetdirect.com.au/car-insurance/research/average-kilometers-driven.html

 

Every single EV in Australia can handle the average Aussies commute easily already. Even a 2012 $9000 Mitsubishi iMiev with a range of around 100km on a full charge would only need to be charged 2 or 3 times a week if people aren't topping up the battery as they sleep each night.

 

 

4 hours ago, mkennard said:

I can't wait till the tech starts coming to aircraft, this is one of the reasons I prefer mogas to avgas. Maybe I'm wrong but minus the lead and I assume cleaner burning. Rotax has been trying to improve their current line up if you can afford the newer engines but one day they need to change, we all need to change.

It has started - https://www.pipistrel-aircraft.com/aircraft/electric-flight/alpha-electro/

 

 

7 minutes ago, jackc said:

I will never buy one, because they won’t make what I want.  All I want is 150km range, rubber floor mats, hand crank windows, no fancy displays or CD player.

Think back to the early ‘60s VW beetles.  Just a basic set of wheels for a realistic price.

You're in luck, there is a company in Byron Bay offering exactly that - https://www.instagram.com/ev_classic/

[Kenlsa]

All well and good and I am interested in an electric aircraft, but just parked in our local off street car park and saw a Tesla sedan plugged in and charging. Dad was out shopping while mum sat in the passenger seat looking board. I don’t know how long it had been there.

I returned to my 4.5lt/100km for 580km to the tank, Picanto some 20 minutes later and asked her how it was going…….”A while to go yet” was the reply. Fantastic!

 

EVs from our mainstream manufacturers would sell  a few more if they looked like cars and not squashed cockroaches 

 

Ken

[octave]

11 minutes ago, Kenlsa said:

EVs from our mainstream manufacturers would sell  a few more if they looked like cars and not squashed cockroaches 

 

I can't think of many common EVs that don't look like standard vehicles.   Leafs, Tesla, MG Kona etc. are pretty standard looking.

[Ignition]

20 minutes ago, Kenlsa said:

All well and good and I am interested in an electric aircraft, but just parked in our local off street car park and saw a Tesla sedan plugged in and charging. Dad was out shopping while mum sat in the passenger seat looking board. I don’t know how long it had been there.

I returned to my 4.5lt/100km for 580km to the tank, Picanto some 20 minutes later and asked her how it was going…….”A while to go yet” was the reply. Fantastic!

 

EVs from our mainstream manufacturers would sell  a few more if they looked like cars and not squashed cockroaches 

 

Ken

That sort of thing is usually avoidable with better planning, also not sure why she wasn't out shopping too, you don't need to sit with the car while it charges unlike when you have to stand while filling up at a fuel station. Literally the Tesla will send a message to their phone when it's reached the desired charge.

 

For an example, a trip from Adelaide to Melbourne (8 hours), only requires two charging stops:

The first, a 7 minute top up at Keith SA where you'll probably wait longer for the coffee order to be made while you stretch your legs with the 'stop revive & survive' or whatever the saying is.
The second, a 28 minute charge at Horsham VIC, which again, your lunch or dinner will probably take longer to be ordered, cooked & eaten than it will take for the car to charge.

Heres the plan for that specific trip (provided the link works): https://abetterrouteplanner.com/?plan_uuid=354a9cd5-a34a-4dba-b92f-24834ec116a5

Like with flying a plane, prior planning makes a huge difference, if you plan a road trip correctly, you will spend a comparable or less time than a fuel powered car waiting around for the charge, because instead of standing holding a fuel nozzle and then grabbing food/coffee, you just skip straight to the good bit (food/coffee) and the car does the rest at the same time.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Ignition

[jackc]

Ignition,

 

About 12 or so years ago I visited Wilde Evolution at Jerome AZ U.S.A. They had converted a Landrover to electric back then.   I was interested in electric motors and controllers etc.  When I came home, I got a Suzuki Hatch 800 van for the conversion.  Worked out how to build it with the help of books I had sourced etc.

Took my ideas to Qld Tpt Dept and got all their required compliance information etc.  Basically, they made it as  hard as possible and was told on the side that they did not want my conversion on the road.  So, I made it easy for them, I gave up……

[turboplanner]

21 minutes ago, jackc said:

Ignition,

 

About 12 or so years ago I visited Wilde Evolution at Jerome AZ U.S.A. They had converted a Landrover to electric back then.   I was interested in electric motors and controllers etc.  When I came home, I got a Suzuki Hatch 800 van for the conversion.  Worked out how to build it with the help of books I had sourced etc.

Took my ideas to Qld Tpt Dept and got all their required compliance information etc.  Basically, they made it as  hard as possible and was told on the side that they did not want my conversion on the road.  So, I made it easy for them, I gave up……

Since the Motor Vehicle Act 1989, it hasn't been possible to design a prototype vehicle without compliancing it to all the Australian Design Rules.

It's doable for an individual, and there's a pathway to do it using low volume Certification, and, up until recently a Machinery Department "signatory", a qualified engineer who does the necessary calculations.

Believe it or not people still are designing and building their own sports cars.

[octave]

Plenty of ICE to EV conversions being done.  I have chatted to a few of the members of the local EV conversion group GEELONG’S SUSTAINABLE MOTOR ENTHUSIASTS 

 

Here a couple of their conversions.

 

 

 

 

Also plenty of companies doing it. Interview: EVolution Conversions | Melbourne-based classic-car EV Conversions

[skippydiesel]

1 hour ago, octave said:

 

I can't think of many common EVs that don't look like standard vehicles.   Leafs, Tesla, MG Kona etc. are pretty standard looking.

Personally I am disapointed that EV's look so much like regulat fossil fuel burners. I hope to see some really inspiring/futuristic  EV designs in the near future - cant wait to see a neat "tear drop" go flying past.

[Keith Page]

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/californian-electric-car-users-choose-to-revert-back-to-convenient-petrol-automobiles/ar-AAM

Have a read of that link, see what you think.

[octave]

4 minutes ago, Keith Page said:

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/californian-electric-car-users-choose-to-revert-back-to-convenient-petrol-automobiles/ar-AAM

Have a read of that link, see what you think.

 

That link doesn't work  I am familiar with the article though. It presents this figure  "According to this study, which looked at California EV owners specifically between 2015-2019, 18% of electric vehicle owners switched back to a gas-powered car."  

 

Another way of wording that statistic would that from 2015 through to 2019 82% of EV owners did not revert to internal combustion.

[Marty_d]

It's early days of EV.  Hats off to the early adopters, but at the moment the price is too high for my wife and I.  She wants to get an EV after her 2009 Hyundai i30, but I reckon she'll have to wait for about 4 or 5 years, when the price is equal or lower than petrol/diesel.

 

So yes, right now you'll get some range problems, you'll get a few people going back to petrol, you'll have a lack of infrastructure, etc.  But it is the leading edge of the change so at the moment only the richer or truly committed will go for the pricey EV's.  In a few years the wave will roll on and new IC vehicles will be the exception rather than the rule - that's when we'll jump in.

 

Just like when TV's went to flat screen - I first saw a big plasma TV in Myers with a price tag of $40,000.  Who's going to buy that?  Fast forward to today and you can pick up a bigger, better resolution LCD TV for about $600.

 

 

Edited August 1, 2021 by Marty_d

[kgwilson]

The pace of change is staggering. In 2020 there were about 370 EV models available world wide. That is a 40% increase over 2019 even in the middle of a pandemic. 1000 km range, batteries that last 1 million km, 5-10 minutes to fully charge from flat and sub USD 10,000.00  EV's are now a reality. I reckon by 2025 they will be cheaper by some margin than equivalent ICE vehicles with greater range and 5 minute charging possible.

Edited August 1, 2021 by kgwilson

[spacesailor]

How many pilots, leave their fuel card in their unattended aircraft,

Those neighbour's compared it to having their charging cable in the car, left for whoever takes it to refuel on the run. They keep it in the house.

spacesailor