Covid 19

[Garfly]

 

 

43 minutes ago, Flightrite said:

People will fight back against the tyranny 

 

That'll work.

 

 

[jackc]

3 minutes ago, aro said:

What does personal responsibility look like:

1. Get vaccinated as soon as a vaccine is available to you
2. Don't catch the disease
3. If you catch it, don't spread it

2 and 3 means stay home and don't have contact with people outside your household. If contact is unavoidable e.g. shopping, wear a mask, properly - well fitting and covering from above your nose to below your chin.

 

If all that sounds too hard, maybe we need to do more at the collective level. That was the point of getting to zero - we can all get away with not doing these things if there is no COVID circulating.

2 & 3 are the easiest to comply with NOW, for the time being at least.

Vaccines will take a little longer, although ScoMo has been on a big shopping mission……

 

[Garfly]

30 minutes ago, jackc said:

Well, it was not the fault of regional areas spreading it amongst themselves originally.  It’s not rocket science 🙂

Jack, it's not a blame game.

It's an epidemiology game.

 

True, it's not rocket science. 

It's way more complicated than that.

 

 

 

Edited September 3, 2021 by Garfly

[jackc]

5 minutes ago, Garfly said:

 

 

 

That'll work.

 

 

Only happen in Australia when the citizens  have lost EVERYTHING.  

Anyway Centrelink will help…..until the country goes broke 🙂

[aro]

11 minutes ago, jackc said:

2 & 3 are the easiest to comply with NOW, for the time being at least.

2 & 3 are the hardest. Maybe you live without contact with other people (no shops, doctor visits, deliveries etc.) although I doubt it. We have seen all through the pandemic, it is the people you don't expect to have the disease that spread it. It spreads more easily than the common cold. If you have ever had a cold, you can expect to catch COVID-19.

 

I have been working pretty hard on 2 and 3 since March 2020. I still managed to catch a cold last year (and had the COVID test). No idea who I got it from. But it proves that despite my vigilance, I could have caught COVID.

 

In contrast, vaccines are easy.

[Garfly]

32 minutes ago, jackc said:

Only happen in Australia when the citizens  have lost EVERYTHING.  

Anyway Centrelink will help…..until the country goes broke 🙂

I agree, Jack, it's not the same here. Though some apparently see advantage in it moving that way. It was the rhetorical tone of the post that I quoted that put me in mind of the US scene.

 

You know, this kind of stuff:

 

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3218959

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 4, 2021 by Garfly

[jackc]

4 minutes ago, Garfly said:

Jack, it's not a blame game.

It's an epidemiology game.

 

True, it's not rocket science. 

It's way more complicated than that.

 

 

 

Well many are blaming the unvaccinated, the nation has been divided and the politicians are helping in that way.  They are all points scoring in an effort to get re elected.  Sadly the media have hammered everyone day and night and people are sick of it. The good news stories are few and far between.

[jackc]

17 minutes ago, Garfly said:

I agree, Jack, it's not the same here. Though some apparently see advantage in it moving that way. It was the rhetorical tone of the post that I quoted that put me in mind of the US scene.

 

You know, this kind of stuff:

 

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3218959

We don’t need to follow the U.S. And, to think I went there on a trip in 1981 and wanted to live and work there. Dodged a bullet on that one.

All I have ever wanted, like many of us is to be happy and enjoy our lives, but the pressures of the modern World are taking that away from us.  It’s not necessarily about money, but rules, regulations that serve no real purpose that are making life more difficult every day.  Just look at Aviation…..everywhere we look, we are hammered.  I honestly think being a hermit is the only answer…….just stay under the radar and do your own thing, with a few close friends.   We need a big increase in private airstrips…….the Council ones are becoming untenable due to development and rising charges.  Fly ins to private airstrips will be the way of the future……..

[Garfly]

 

52 minutes ago, jackc said:

Well many are blaming the unvaccinated, the nation has been divided and the politicians are helping in that way.  They are all points scoring in an effort to get re elected.  Sadly the media have hammered everyone day and night and people are sick of it. The good news stories are few and far between.

 

I think it's only the wilfully unvaccinated that might be feeling some pressure - and only then because the rules of the epidemiology game say that it takes just one heedless egoist to totally undo the sacrifice of millions. (Not to mention, threaten the lives of all close contacts; especially fellow refuseniks.)

 

Yes, we're all fed up by now and if there was someone or some group we could rationally blame for the whole disaster, they'd have been well and truly run out of town already. 

 

For all I know, a do-nothing, or do-little, strategy might have led us to a better position right now in this country.  But who can know this? To be intellectually honest, we can't just sit there, happy in the belief that the disaster would surely have passed if only some other (undefined) strategy had been chosen. 

 

How to be sure that it wouldn't have been worse?  For the community?  For oneself?

 

(Of course, if being sure of our beliefs is not even a goal  [Kelly gang, I'm looking at you! ] then all bets are off,)

 

 

Edited September 4, 2021 by Garfly

[spacesailor]

One entity has the distinction of the ' ideot,s ' that let that First Covic ship into NSW !.

While it flew the ' yellow peter ' flag,   " Disease on board ".

spacesailor

[Garfly]

Yep, not much argument about that, Spacey:

 

Report finds federal government failings likely contributed to Ruby Princess COVID-19 disaster

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-24/report-finds-federal-government-failings-ruby-princess-covid-19/100380948

Edited September 4, 2021 by Garfly

[onetrack]

I initially misread Spaceys post at first glance as, "the idiots that let that First Convict ship into NSW!"  Perhaps that's what Spacey really meant? 

[spacesailor]

This place just wouldn,t be the same  !, Without all those first " strong backed " personal, that made this country great.

spacesailor

[Ignition]

9 hours ago, jackc said:

Not necessarily, Australia is the most sparsely populated continent in the World.

7 hours ago, Old Koreelah said:

What matters to this discussion is urban density.

 

One thing to remember in the 'sparsely populated' thing is that half our population are connected by the 3rd and 18th busiest air routes in the world. Our 3 main cities are much closer than they appear.

 

 

 

5 hours ago, jackc said:

Vaccines will take a little longer, although ScoMo has been on a big shopping mission……

17 hours ago, octave said:

To be fair many of these people may not yet have been offered the vaccine although this is rapidly changing.

 

All Australians 16+ are now eligible to get vaccinated, some 12-16 year olds are eligible now too

Of the 16+ population, 62.1% (as of today) already have had at least 1 dose

Australia's supplies will have 10.5 million doses available this month so the supply issues are finally sorted (would've been nice if they were sorted when we were at the front of the queue but better late than never.)

Most pharmacies & GP's should have supplies on hand right now, you might still need to ask around, but the vials are there if you want it

And, we're literally weeks away from 16+ being at 80% fully vaccinated, around 10-11 weeks at the current pace

[skippydiesel]

My view;

·         CV19 has moved from being a largely heath response/matter, modified by political expediency, to an almost wholly political matter.

·         Big business wants Australia open NOW! Never mind the cost in lives lost/spent in ill health.

·         Scomo is on side with this, as is his puppy “Pandemic Gladys”.

·         Pandemic Gladys is facilitating this by ensuing Delta gets out.

·         The current focus on the vaccine miracle, delivered by Saint Scomo, will take us up to/past the next Federal election –putting Scomo in a good position to be re-elected.

·         The voting public will realise too late, the currently available vaccines, will not be the miracle, that will return us/society or are economy to its former good health.  The election will have passed and a new rhetoric/spiel will take over.

·         The opposition parties are largely mute – they know what’s going on but fear that the voters, desperate for relief, will react against any dissenting commentary/opinion. Should events move in their favour (CV10 disaster) they will still be there to pick up the pieces (win).

·         Pressure (infection or threat thereof, curtesy Gladys) is being applied to State leaders, to fall in line behind the Federal plan, to open up, no matter their CV status.

·         Unfortunately, on reaching the mystical 80% (of what?) vaccination, should we open up our State & International borders, there will be very little chance of reversing the damage. By then we may all have had the vaccine, contracted Covid/recovered/long CV or died, so perhaps this is a moot point.

·         Quarantine/Lockdowns will continue, in response to CV19 flair up/hot spots/clusters, hopefully not as devastating in their scope and failure, as this one.

·         In short, our leaders are, once again, tricking us into accepting the “absolute necessity”, of going into an unnecessarily dangerous & costly situation – sound familiar?

[turboplanner]

7 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

 

·         CV19 has moved from being a largely heath response/matter, modified by political expediency, to an almost wholly political matter.

I don't think so because the population in immense volume has swung behind the policy of saving their lives, the strongest motivator of all. I haven't seen a poll but my gut feel is that survival group could be as high as 90%. Things could change but currently the message to the politicians is that those who backed the health response will be re-elected with an increased majority at the next elections. So there's no motivation to cancel the States of Emergency and take the reins.

7 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

·         Big business wants Australia open NOW! Never mind the cost in lives lost/spent in ill health.

Not all big business, because our economy has been operating well above what it should have been doing and our unemployment rate is spectacularly low.

However the big businesses who aren't part of that are making up for that by sqiealing and lying through their PR machines, and muddying the water.

7 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

·         Scomo is on side with this, as is his puppy “Pandemic Gladys”.

I'd suggest Scomo is realistic enough to know that if we did open up and thousands died, the majority would never forgive him, but at the same time we are all so used to travelling for business and holidays that we all want to open up without losing anyone in our family.  Given that Gladys is alleged to have said he was a bully, but has denied it, I'd say she's not his puppy any more and is too busy on the NSW wave, which could cost her government since we are so fickle and your epithet confirms that.

7 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

·         Pandemic Gladys is facilitating this by ensuing Delta gets out.

At this point, contact tracing has told us who let Delta out; in fact the names of every single person would be known, and none of them include Gladys. Also the differing reasons all these people did what they did are known and the Department is taking action to stop some of those reasons.

 

Just so you know, the Victorian Premier said we would have sent our Victorian Contact tracing team to NSW to help them bring the NSW break out under control, if we hadn't had the breakout in Victoria, 

 

 

7 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

·         The current focus on the vaccine miracle, delivered by Saint Scomo, will take us up to/past the next Federal election –putting Scomo in a good position to be re-elected.

I posted the facts on the vaccine rollout a few days ago. Labor led by your hero Albo have campaigned heavily to suppress the fact that vaccination was our No2 strategy not No1 like USA, UK and many other countries who now wish they'd adopted contact tracing like us. What I posted showed who we had backed financially to invent a vaccine, who we'd ordered from and when, when the rollout started, why the 51 million does order was cancelled (because it would have been illegal to use a vaccine which produced HIV), and what had been coming on stream. At the end of all the hype it looks as if our No 2 strategy will, from a March rollout start, conclude two months later than expected.

 

The next Federal election is far enough away that future events could still cause a change in government. Plenty of time for the population to swing as they always have.

7 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

·         The voting public will realise too late, the currently available vaccines, will not be the miracle, that will return us/society or are economy to its former good health. 

The overseas experience is already showing our health departments that vaccines alone leave a politically unacceptable trail of deaths, particularly with the mutation history of this virus which could easily mutate further, requiring new vaccines, so my bet is we'll see overseas countries picking up our social distancing strategy. Whe you look at the top countries in the world for performance on Covid-19, five or six with zero deaths, it's no surprise that they are from the African continent where people have learnt by bitter experience to stay distant to stop a pandemic.

 

In the post I made during the week, if you watched the full 1 hour and 54 minutes, you would have seen how the strategy of Victoria is already changing to adapt to the duel policy, accepting that we need to open up, but making it a safer opeining than, say UK.

 

7 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

·         The opposition parties are largely mute – they know what’s going on but fear that the voters, desperate for relief, will react against any dissenting commentary/opinion. Should events move in their favour (CV10 disaster) they will still be there to pick up the pieces (win).

That's the smartest policy under a State of Emergency, given they would be opposing the policy of the Health command system designed to fix the pandemic. The Westminster system requires them to oppose the government during the legislative process with day to day bills and government business and most appear to be doing that, letting the health departments do their job. The exception to that is the Victorian Liberal party which has imploded, apparently wanting to sack their leader for not being agressive enough.

7 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

·         Pressure (infection or threat thereof, curtesy Gladys) is being applied to State leaders, to fall in line behind the Federal plan, to open up, no matter their CV status.

To save Qantas etc that would be the solution, and no doubt there's pressure to keep the economy running because we could slip into a recession if we are closed down too long, even if the people locked down and needing survival money are being paid. The unexpected virus spreads in NSW and Vic have made that a good possibility, however the controlled status of all the other States and Territories is keeping them domestically intact.  When the populations of NSW and Victoria wake up to this policy leaving a trail of death, albeit within the unvaccinated rabble, there will be a major reaction, and when the "clean" States get a breakout caused by just a minute few people, as per the NSW and Vic latest ones, that Commonwealth idea might vary. Same if the virus mutates abd jumps the vaccines.

7 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

·         Quarantine/Lockdowns will continue, in response to CV19 flair up/hot spots/clusters, hopefully not as devastating in their scope and failure, as this one.

What Victoria seems to be doing is vaccinating as far as they can go - to all the people except those who refuse to be vaccinated. (there's also a small group who cannot be vaccinated and have to be protected somewhow), Their target is to reach a point where a new wave can only affect the unvaccinated and even if every one of them was infected the numbers couldn't exceed our ICU/Ventilator Capacity.

 

7 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

·         In short, our leaders are, once again, tricking us into accepting the “absolute necessity”, of going into an unnecessarily dangerous & costly situation – sound familiar?

 

7 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

My view;

·         CV19 has moved from being a largely heath response/matter, modified by political expediency, to an almost wholly political matter.

·         Big business wants Australia open NOW! Never mind the cost in lives lost/spent in ill health.

·         Scomo is on side with this, as is his puppy “Pandemic Gladys”.

·         Pandemic Gladys is facilitating this by ensuing Delta gets out.

·         The current focus on the vaccine miracle, delivered by Saint Scomo, will take us up to/past the next Federal election –putting Scomo in a good position to be re-elected.

·         The voting public will realise too late, the currently available vaccines, will not be the miracle, that will return us/society or are economy to its former good health.  The election will have passed and a new rhetoric/spiel will take over.

·         The opposition parties are largely mute – they know what’s going on but fear that the voters, desperate for relief, will react against any dissenting commentary/opinion. Should events move in their favour (CV10 disaster) they will still be there to pick up the pieces (win).

·         Pressure (infection or threat thereof, curtesy Gladys) is being applied to State leaders, to fall in line behind the Federal plan, to open up, no matter their CV status.

·         Unfortunately, on reaching the mystical 80% (of what?) vaccination, should we open up our State & International borders, there will be very little chance of reversing the damage. By then we may all have had the vaccine, contracted Covid/recovered/long CV or died, so perhaps this is a moot point.

·         Quarantine/Lockdowns will continue, in response to CV19 flair up/hot spots/clusters, hopefully not as devastating in their scope and failure, as this one.

·         In short, our leaders are, once again, tricking us into accepting the “absolute necessity”, of going into an unnecessarily dangerous & costly situation – sound familiar?

Apart from that, why aren't you taking orders hand over fist for those beautiful little aircraft Skippy, electronic selling is going gang busters. One of the people who delivers restaurant meals to our front doors down here has just paide $147 million for a new house in Melbourne.

[skippydiesel]

Turbs me old mate - It would seem that you generally accept the propaganda that is being served up to you by politician's & media. My evidence for this is your persistence in the idea that the management of our pandemic is without political interference/modification. I on the other hand take a far more cynical view.

 

Take quarantine/lockdown as a topical case ;

 

Quarantine is simple in concept – absolutely no movement of the infected person/population & potentially infected (Lockdown!). The faster, comprehensive & strictly enforced the Lockdown; the quicker spread is contained and the shorter will be the Lockdown period. The few days – 3 weeks, would be far better tolerated by the people and business, than what we have now.  Gross mismanagement? or  Deliberate policy?

 

In this modern era, perhaps not quit so simple to implement – our complicated lives/dependencies require “essential” workers/services continue – this then leads to the potential for disease leakage. Unavoidable but predictable and importantly manageable, with the right attitude/policies strictly implemented. Gross mismanagement? or Deliberate policy?

 

Our leaders have had nearly 2 years of, our own and World, experience in the management of the pandemic, to refine/improve their management. We are basically back at Flatten the Curve (a hysteria driven response), which may be applicable to, multi nation, continental land mases where  border porosity (to virus transmission) is a reality. This is demonstrably at odds with island nations (us) where Zero Community Transmission is a viable alternative allowing a considered managed (epidemiological) transition of the population to immunity through vaccination. The latter, being  far less costly both in social and economic terms but may be politically difficult (transient hard/unpopular decision may need to be implemented)

[turboplanner]

4 minutes ago, skippydiesel said:

Turbs me old mate - It would seem that you generally accept the propaganda that is being served up to you by politician's & media. My evidence for this is your persistence in the idea that the management of our pandemic is without political interference/modification. I on the other hand take a far more cynical view.

Well you would be wrong; if anything I question what is happening and why more than most and probably through more channels than most, but I know I research more than you or you wouldn't have said that. Admittedly I've only seen two stories from the journalists which explained how things are working which would have allowed you to sleep better. We all should question what we see or hear rather than perch on dogma sticks.

4 minutes ago, skippydiesel said:

 

Take quarantine/lockdown as a topical case ;

 

Quarantine is simple in concept – absolutely no movement of the infected person/population & potentially infected (Lockdown!). The faster, comprehensive & strictly enforced the Lockdown; the quicker spread is contained and the shorter will be the Lockdown period. The few days – 3 weeks, would be far better tolerated by the people and business, than what we have now.  Gross mismanagement? or  Deliberate policy?

 

Neither; the States have learned from each other, and most of them are importing one or two cases of Covid per day from the people who are allowed to fly in from overseas, and that includes Qld and WA. That means we are committed to every strain or mutation that's going around the northern hemisphere. The early failure points have been fixed, including for the Delta strain to the point where we were able to welcome traumatised Afghans into a 4/5 star welcome instead of Nissen Huts.

 

The isolation period appears to be ending after the 13th day test, so 14 days from the first day of infection.

Victoria's trigger for a lockdown is when the number of known cases reaches the point where, if the wave played out full hospital capacity would be reached, so we don't lock down on the first case because they are isolating. We them have x cases isolating, plus x new cases entering the contact tracing phase in a browing bubble until we get the early ones coming off the active case list, and at a certain point, even though we have active cases in isolation there are no new cases presenting, so Covid is out of the community. It's a rolling numbers thing, so the bigger and more sustained the numbers are the longer the lockdown has to ask. Your Chairman Dan doesn't wake up one morning and say "Just for a bit of variety I'll lock you all down for an extra 4 weeks this time" the decision is made by a lot of people crunching a lot of numbers. This year the cases are coming from Community transmission - that's all the party goers, anti vaxx mothers, and community groups struggling with the fine points of the language. The Victorian Commander came up with some novel approaches which has seen some of Victoria's clusters dry up quickly to the point where Victoria may still be able to shut down this wave. NSW right now are using some of those novel approaches, and that it neither gross mismanagement or political policy, just people doing their work like we all do.

 

4 minutes ago, skippydiesel said:

In this modern era, perhaps not quit so simple to implement – our complicated lives/dependencies require “essential” workers/services continue – this then leads to the potential for disease leakage. Unavoidable but predictable and importantly manageable, with the right attitude/policies strictly implemented. Gross mismanagement? or Deliberate policy?

 

Neither; you only have to look at Australia's success with the GDP, which countries like USA and UK would kill for to know that by luck or good measure the essential worker classification worked, but the Delta strain has produced some infections with both interestate commerce and construction work. Victoria has tightened some aspects where workers were congregating etc. Given that a political policy of infecting workers would see them at home and possibly dying you probably would have heard from the Unions right now, but they've tended to get messages to the workers to wear masks, get vaccinated etc - things that will keep the woorkers working and the projects going.

 

 

4 minutes ago, skippydiesel said:

Our leaders have had nearly 2 years of, our own and World, experience in the management of the pandemic, to refine/improve their management. We are basically back at Flatten the Curve (a hysteria driven response), which may be applicable to, multi nation, continental land mases where  border porosity (to virus transmission) is a reality. This is demonstrably at odds with island nations (us) where Zero Community Transmission is a viable alternative allowing a considered managed (epidemiological) transition of the population to immunity through vaccination. The latter, being  far less costly both in social and economic terms but may be politically difficult (transient hard/unpopular decision may need to be implemented)

I work in the automotive and transport industries which have own and world experience of over a hundred years and I can point you to many who are screwing up as we speak and others who are pulling off masterstrokes right now. On Melbourne dealer is selling at 56% over budget for example. The States and the Commonwealth were dealing with Covid-19 and are now without any real warning dealing with the Delta strain which is exploding in a new, less linear way but even with the things which have gone wrong, are one of the world leaders right now in protecting their populations; why would we be critical of that?

[Garfly]

 

 

 

[skippydiesel]

I doubt if we can agree on this Turbs -

 

I see either gross mismanagement of or deliberate intent, to undermine, a simple concept "quarantine". Either a total cock up or something more sinister.

 

You apparently see something else - perhaps the heroic struggles of our leaders in a no win situation. A bit totalitarian?

 

I focus on the health response, knowing that correctly implemented, it will be the quickest and lowest cost way out (or at least to a controlled situation) of this pandemic.

 

You "muddy the waters" with your emphasis on business success/failure - which does nothing to address the principal issue, CV19.

 

You make completely unnecessary & incorrect accusations about my political leanings/philosophy, inferring that somehow this is colouring my perception.

 

I present a critical/logical progression of thought, using the evidence provided on a daily basis, by the politician's, epidemiologists  and my own life experience. Doesn't mean I am correct but sure beats the hell out of blind faith.

 

You speak of  "novel approaches" (what are they?) Without further information it is hard to comment,  however after hundreds of years of quarantine history, I doubt it would be in the area of concept, most likely in the equally important are of human management/communication which must evolve as technology and culture demand.

[onetrack]

The major thing you have to remember is that the largest percentage of politicians have little by way of leadership ability, because they've never had to put in a proper job application presenting their CV and management qualifications, to any person with the requisite skills and who is qualified to lead the nation.

They only have to "ring around to get the numbers for support", within their own political party, or plaster their face on 10,000 posters and billboards, in the hope the general public will vote them in, because they present an "honest face".

A mate always reckoned the people who should be running the country are too busy running their own successful businesses - and politicians couldn't run a sweets and icecream shop outside a girls school without sending it bankrupt.

Most have little knowledge of operating in the real world and wouldn't recognise leadership and management skills, even if they hit them in the face.

The likes of Dan the Man has never had a real job, he went from Uni straight into the political system. Little wonder he's bumbled from one poor decision to another.

[kgwilson]

Scomo was fired from the last 2 marketing jobs he had. After being fired from the first he went back into politics for 2 years, had another go & was fired again.

[turboplanner]

29 minutes ago, kgwilson said:

Scomo was fired from the last 2 marketing jobs he had. After being fired from the first he went back into politics for 2 years, had another go & was fired again.

That's nothing, Albo was in charge of CASA.

[jackc]

VERY slow learners…….

[Marty_d]

4 hours ago, onetrack said:

The major thing you have to remember is that the largest percentage of politicians have little by way of leadership ability, because they've never had to put in a proper job application presenting their CV and management qualifications, to any person with the requisite skills and who is qualified to lead the nation.

They only have to "ring around to get the numbers for support", within their own political party, or plaster their face on 10,000 posters and billboards, in the hope the general public will vote them in, because they present an "honest face".

A mate always reckoned the people who should be running the country are too busy running their own successful businesses - and politicians couldn't run a sweets and icecream shop outside a girls school without sending it bankrupt.

Most have little knowledge of operating in the real world and wouldn't recognise leadership and management skills, even if they hit them in the face.

The likes of Dan the Man has never had a real job, he went from Uni straight into the political system. Little wonder he's bumbled from one poor decision to another.

There's a problem with the line of thinking that a businessman would make a good political leader.   I refer you to the USA, 2016-2020...