Effect Of Ukraine War On GA.

[APenNameAndThatA]

1 hour ago, danny_galaga said:

It would be a tough call. Quite often when countries are at war, whole swathes of the country are largely unaffected. If where they are situated is not near any thing of major interest to the USSR, er, Russia then you have to consider the costs of uprooting all of that, and having to re place and retrain most of your staff

That is true. But if they are at an old military airfield (likely) they might be bombed because the Russians dont know what is in their hanger. 

 

You are right about a tough call. The refugees who left a week ago are doing better than the ones trying to leave besieged cities. 

[Methusala]

The BIG PROBLEM is that avgas increased by 8% last week at my airfield. It may increase by a similar margin next week and then next week again. $200bbl oil is in the sights according to the media. ULP has increased by a similar %. Food prices are increasing rapidly and housing "goes through the roof". Russia is contributing about 30% to world energy demand. Did Washington and the EU realise this would happen when they railroaded Ukraine, headed by that master diplomat Zelensky, (loads of geopolitical experience - not!), into war with a military super power? Answer, yes, but, as Madelaine Albricht said, it was worth it.

Aviation and all forms of motor transport are about to become expensive.

I have been anti-war all of my thinking life. US has been the instigator of all of them. Just so sad. Sorry for any hurt feelings, Don

[Garfly]

This one's not about effects on GA but on the big end of town.  Interesting speculation, though.

 

 

[Methusala]

What does this mean for the companies who leased them to Russia. How does one seek compensation when this, as an act of war, means no insurance. 

 

Russia officially holds “hostage” more than 470 foreign planes worth a dozen billion dollars. This is . . . after the Russian aviation authority asked its airlines to no longer fly abroad with aircraft chartered by Western companies neither for passenger connections, nor for cargo connections from Sunday 6 March. This means that it becomes impossible for leasing companies to recover jets rented to Russian companies — such as Aeroflot, S7 Airlines, Rossiya, Azur Air, Ural Airlines — which could give rise to a legal, as well as financial, headache of global dimensions.

Edited March 8, 2022 by Methusala

[danny_galaga]

Fuel price increases are an by excuse. Russia is still shipping oil and gas, it's except from the sanctions. 

 

I guess you could say Ukraine was rail roaded into a war, just like Poland was railroaded into having a war with Hitler...

[Methusala]

1 hour ago, danny_galaga said:

I guess you could say Ukraine was rail roaded into a war, just like Poland was railroaded into having a war with Hitler...

Yes, you could SAY that, except that you'd be wrong. Researching the facts, you'd find that Ukraine has, for 8 years, been the aggressor and provoker of military activity.

Ukraine has :

a) In 2014, shortly after the Maiden coup, which installed an unelected government by ousting the elected Lukashenko mob, voluntarily entered an agreement (The Minsk Protocol) to withdraw forces from Donetsk and Lugansk and give them some regional autonomy. They never abided by this agreement which caused the deaths of 13,000, mostly Russian speaking, inhabitants. ;

b) Cooperated with NATO and the US to host joint military exercises over this period and requested many times to  join With NATO. It is a fact that the western leaders had repeatedly and unequivocally agreed not to move NATO "one further inch" towards Russian territory. This has been spectacularly ignored over that past 20 or so years.

c) Accepted US and EU lethal arms shipments increasingly, in the build-up to the present, giving the unmistakably obvious signs that 'something was up'. This has been accompanied by an increase in troop strength along the Dobass frontier of some 60,000 Ukrainian forces. Russia has responded by moving troops into adjoining Russian territory in a logical answer to this build-up.

d) Zelensky has repeatedly claimed that he wishes to have nuclear arms added to Ukraine's arsenal, and;

e) Has acted belligerently throughout his term towards Russia and the Donbass region despite having been elected with a promise to seek peace and de-escalate tensions in Ukraine. 

All wars are horrific and to be avoided at almost any cost. This one is portrayed in western media propaganda falsely and with the strongest bias against the east. It's about control of Russia's resources and a desire by Washington and the EU to finish Russia off completely.

  

 

 

[turboplanner]

There'll certainly be a change in aircraft over the Ukraine, and Poland, with this morning's news that Poland is giving Ukraine all its MIG 29s now free of charge and the US is giving Poland F16s to replace all the aircraft given to Ukraine.

[Methusala]

You could say that this is a further step into the abyss of Nuclear WW111. Mad Neocons of the world! 

<Poland is giving Ukraine all its MIG 29s now free of charge and the US is giving Poland F16s >

 

Could you give a citation for this?

Edited March 8, 2022 by Methusala

[turboplanner]

29 minutes ago, Methusala said:

You could say that this is a further step into the abyss of Nuclear WW111. Mad Neocons of the world! 

<Poland is giving Ukraine all its MIG 29s now free of charge and the US is giving Poland F16s >

 

Could you give a citation for this?

Channel 9 News. 

[Methusala]

10 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

Channel 9 News. 

Has taken the US by complete surprise. Very dangerous situations can arise quickly. Question is where these ac could operate from and not draw NATO into a hot war.

We live between Tidbinbilla satelite tracking ststion and Joint Operation Command HQ. Prime strategic targets.

[Garfly]

New York Times   March 6

"It is a delicate balance. On Saturday, while Mr. Biden was in Wilmington, Del., his National Security Council staff spent much of the day trying to find a way for Poland to transfer to Ukraine a fleet of well-used, Soviet-made MIG-29 fighter jets that Ukrainian pilots know how to fly. But the deal is contingent on giving Poland, in return, far more capable, American-made F-16s, an operation made more complicated by the fact that many of those fighters are promised to Taiwan — where the United States has greater strategic interests."

 

 

 

MSNBC  March 9

 

 

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Garfly

[Garfly]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/poland-mig-29-jets-us-ukraine

 

Julian Borger in Washington and Patrick Wintour in London

Wed 9 Mar 2022 10.38 AEDT

Poland has said it will hand over its MiG-29 fighter jets to the US, in a move which appeared to take Washington by surprise and was quickly dismissed by the Pentagon.

The Polish foreign minister, Zbigniew Rau, said his government was “ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MiG-29 jets to the Ramstein airbase and place them at the disposal of the government of the United States of America”.

 

But the Pentagon appeared to reject the proposal, saying it was not “tenable”.

In a statement, the US Department of Defense said the prospect of the jets departing from the base “to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire Nato alliance”.

[Methusala]

Difficult to achieve the "delicate balance" required to keep Germany in the club.

 

BERLIN — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz today pushed back against calls from the U.S. and Ukraine for a ban on imports of Russian gas and oil as part of international sanctions on Moscow.

“Europe has deliberately exempted energy supplies from Russia from sanctions," Scholz said in a statement, adding: "At the moment, Europe's supply of energy for heat generation, mobility, power supply and industry cannot be secured in any other way. It is therefore of essential importance for the provision of public services and the daily lives of our citizens."

Edited March 9, 2022 by Methusala

[skippydiesel]

I dont believe that  "Europe's supply of energy for heat generation, mobility, power supply and industry cannot be secured in any other way". 

Russia may be an important producer of oil/gas but is far from the only supplier - this is political procrastination.

Continued use of Russian products will "water down" sanctions, the only policy the West seems willing to apply (at this time).

 

I think there is little doubt that Ukraine has been "baiting" Russia for several years however this does not legitimise Russia's invasion and indiscriminate killing/destruction. 

 

Russia is a bastard of a state - look what they do to their own and vasal states like Syria.

[Methusala]

14 minutes ago, skippydiesel said:

I dont believe that  "Europe's supply of energy for heat generation, mobility, power supply and industry cannot be secured in any other way". 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz probably has a better handle on Europe's access to energy supplies. Here we have Angus Taylor in charge of energy. The energy sector don't trust him so maybe you have something after all

[Garfly]

This paper by British "leadership" academic Keith Grint puts a kind of universal spin on the tragic events.

 

https://ilaglobalnetwork.org/ukrainian-resistance/

 

Excerpt:

 

"In war, since that is what this clearly is, we have known since the time of Aeschylus and Sun Tzu that truth is the first casualty. Putin’s narrative concerns the alleged mendacity of NATO, the “Nazification” of the Ukraine, and the call for help from besieged ethnic Russians in Ukraine. But it is also locked into an overall strategic goal: MRGA — the Make Russia Great Again story. Over the last decade, this kind of nationalist appeal has been used by right-wing populist leaders the world over. This feeds the victim-claims of many of the supporters of such men — and they are always men — and makes the chances of dissuading them from their stories of robbed elections or stolen status very hard to eliminate."

 

 

Here he is discussing his book about leadership and D-day.

 

 

 

[danny_galaga]

11 hours ago, Methusala said:

Yes, you could SAY that, except that you'd be wrong. Researching the facts, you'd find that Ukraine has, for 8 years, been the aggressor and provoker of military activity.

Ukraine has :

a) In 2014, shortly after the Maiden coup, which installed an unelected government by ousting the elected Lukashenko mob, voluntarily entered an agreement (The Minsk Protocol) to withdraw forces from Donetsk and Lugansk and give them some regional autonomy. They never abided by this agreement which caused the deaths of 13,000, mostly Russian speaking, inhabitants. ;

b) Cooperated with NATO and the US to host joint military exercises over this period and requested many times to  join With NATO. It is a fact that the western leaders had repeatedly and unequivocally agreed not to move NATO "one further inch" towards Russian territory. This has been spectacularly ignored over that past 20 or so years.

c) Accepted US and EU lethal arms shipments increasingly, in the build-up to the present, giving the unmistakably obvious signs that 'something was up'. This has been accompanied by an increase in troop strength along the Dobass frontier of some 60,000 Ukrainian forces. Russia has responded by moving troops into adjoining Russian territory in a logical answer to this build-up.

d) Zelensky has repeatedly claimed that he wishes to have nuclear arms added to Ukraine's arsenal, and;

e) Has acted belligerently throughout his term towards Russia and the Donbass region despite having been elected with a promise to seek peace and de-escalate tensions in Ukraine. 

All wars are horrific and to be avoided at almost any cost. This one is portrayed in western media propaganda falsely and with the strongest bias against the east. It's about control of Russia's resources and a desire by Washington and the EU to finish Russia off completely.

  

 

 

So Russia is being a good citizen by annexing Crimea and helping those two breakaway republics by shelling Ukrainian cities? 

[Methusala]

There are no "gentlemen" in this game. This is no after dinner soapie. It could end in extinction for us all.

[Marty_d]

There are no gentlemen, but there are innocent civilians, and they're the ones being attacked by an invasion force.

 

There's no way Putin can justify this.  It's a territory grab, pure and simple.  I'm really hoping someone close to him puts a bullet in his head, because I can't see this ending well any other way.

[Garfly]

14 hours ago, Methusala said:

Yes, you could SAY that, except that you'd be wrong. Researching the facts, you'd find that Ukraine has, for 8 years, been the aggressor and provoker of military activity.

Ukraine has :

a) In 2014, shortly after the Maiden coup, which installed an unelected government by ousting the elected Lukashenko mob, voluntarily entered an agreement (The Minsk Protocol) to withdraw forces from Donetsk and Lugansk and give them some regional autonomy. They never abided by this agreement which caused the deaths of 13,000, mostly Russian speaking, inhabitants. ;

b) Cooperated with NATO and the US to host joint military exercises over this period and requested many times to  join With NATO. It is a fact that the western leaders had repeatedly and unequivocally agreed not to move NATO "one further inch" towards Russian territory. This has been spectacularly ignored over that past 20 or so years.

c) Accepted US and EU lethal arms shipments increasingly, in the build-up to the present, giving the unmistakably obvious signs that 'something was up'. This has been accompanied by an increase in troop strength along the Dobass frontier of some 60,000 Ukrainian forces. Russia has responded by moving troops into adjoining Russian territory in a logical answer to this build-up.

d) Zelensky has repeatedly claimed that he wishes to have nuclear arms added to Ukraine's arsenal, and;

e) Has acted belligerently throughout his term towards Russia and the Donbass region despite having been elected with a promise to seek peace and de-escalate tensions in Ukraine. 

All wars are horrific and to be avoided at almost any cost. This one is portrayed in western media propaganda falsely and with the strongest bias against the east. It's about control of Russia's resources and a desire by Washington and the EU to finish Russia off completely.

  

 

 

Don, I understand your call for us all to view this tragedy through a more complex global-historical-political lens than we get through the daily news.  Fair enough.  But then, maybe all we 'westerners' - from all sides of the political spectrum and at all levels of 'expertise' - could use more nuance when it comes to explaining the crisis and its history.  That, anyway, was the message I took from this recent article in The New Republic by two East-European scholars who seem pretty fed-up with most of our "westsplaining" attempts so far:

 

https://newrepublic.com/article/165603/carlson-russia-ukraine-imperialism-nato

 

The opening par:

 

"War is hell for anyone in it. And it’s a predictable but regrettable call to arms for people with opinions who aren’t. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, as the fighting on the ground has escalated, so has the volley of opinions about the war. And for Eastern European scholars like us, it’s galling to watch the unending stream of Western scholars and pundits condescend to explain the situation in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, often in ways that either ignore voices from the region, treating it as an object rather than a subject of history, or claiming to perfectly understand Russian logic and motives. Eastern European online circles have started using a new term to describe this phenomenon of people from the Anglosphere loudly foisting their analytical schema and political prescriptions onto the region: westsplaining. And the problem with westsplaining is illustrated particularly well when pundits westsplain the role of the eastward expansion of NATO in triggering Russia’s attack."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Garfly

[danny_galaga]

Westplaining or no, Russia has invaded a sovereign state. 

 

We no doubt westplained the invasion of Kuwait too. From Iraq's point of view for instance, Kuwait shouldn't have existed. All those borders were drawn up by the English and the French in the 1920's after all.  None the less, a sovereign state was invaded

Edited March 9, 2022 by danny_galaga

[Methusala]

On 09/03/2022 at 11:44 PM, Garfly said:

"War is hell for anyone in it."

I have read this piece. Seems to be a further attempt to whitewash the part played by, a)The Ukraine since being illegally taken over in the 2014 Maidan coup, entering into the Minsk agreements then abrogating them, b) The dreadful war MIC in the US, supplying weapons, advisors and intelligence while ignoring the plight of eastern Ukrainians over 8 years of military atrocities - resulting in over 13,000 deaths of innocent Russian speaking Ukrainians and, c) The implications of NATO exercises conducted with Ukranian military including the openly fascist Asov units which, in any bodies language , are threatening to Russia, the sworn enemy of NATO.

It is a ridiculous oversimplification of the swarm of issues enmeshed in the current deplorable situation. Russia won't and neither can they stop what has been forced upon them by the insatiable and wrong west which has bought the world untold suffering in so many post WW2 theatres.

As the infamous Snake Island incident attempted, unsuccessfully because it was a flagrant lie, to paint the Russian forces as inhuman devils, so this "bombing of maternity hospital" latest was actually the result of Asov artillery , having evacuated civilians, used it as an attack command centre upon Russian forces.

This state of affairs needs to be viewed from a wide perspective. What would we think of a teacher in the schoolyard, listening only to one side of a scrap before deciding who was at fault?

Edited March 11, 2022 by Methusala
Addition

[danny_galaga]

Again, I'm sure Hitler was 'forced'to invade Poland to protect the Sudetenland. 

[Methusala]

 "The first casualty when war comes is truth". Hiram W Johnson, US Senator. 1917.

 

I Have contributed to this thread only with the aim to show that there are both sides to be considered by anyone interested in seeing more clearly what is going on in the catastrophe now unfolding. All are free to read events in their own way. 

Intelligence is not in short supply in this forum and I appreciate every input from contributors. I have said all that I wish to and leave you all with a repetition of my belief that all wars are grotesque and detestable. There are no winners and no good guys. I say, give peace a chance

[Garfly]

1 hour ago, Methusala said:

 "The first casualty when war comes is truth". Hiram W Johnson, US Senator. 1917.

 

I Have contributed to this thread only with the aim to show that there are both sides to be considered by anyone interested in seeing more clearly what is going on in the catastrophe now unfolding. All are free to read events in their own way. 

Intelligence is not in short supply in this forum and I appreciate every input from contributors. I have said all that I wish to and leave you all with a repetition of my belief that all wars are grotesque and detestable. There are no winners and no good guys. I say, give peace a chance

 

Sure, Don, I'm keen to learn more by having all sides of an issue aired by way of honestly held, contesting opinions - as we have here. Anyway, I think we can all agree that to be disgusted by Putin and his war is in no way to be disgusted with Russia or Russians; nor to imply that legitimate Russian interests and anxieties have not, to some extent, been trampled by the West since '89.  This, indeed, could be compared to the unwise and unnecessary trampling of the reasonable fears of a defeated Germany at Versailles in 1919. And we know how that ended.  But that did require - and/or gave rise to - a Hitler.

 

In any case, for anyone interested, linked below are two smart, courageous and honest Russian voices (IMHO) that help us understand how Putin's grievances and interests and those of Russia, must not, at all, be seen as the same thing.

 

And, free of 'westsplaining' tendencies (that is, viewing these events as mainly east-west geo-politics playing out on a field of ground that, itself, has no serious agency to consider) Russian journalist Yevgenia Albat points out (16:45 in the video below) that despite its historic cultural and linguistic links to Russia (and Belarus), Ukraine has, after all, been struggling to gain its own independent statehood for centuries.  (And yes, it is way more complicated than that.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by Garfly