Macron banning private jets

[BrendAn]

4 hours ago, turboplanner said:

This is the current status in Australia by carsale,com.au as at July 2022.

The link is about battery changeover and its cost, but includes some of the issues before an on-road battey changeover network can be set up.

One of the issues EV has to conquer is infrastructure.

Land: Service stations for petrol/diesel have a land size and layout for perhaps a 5 minute refuel cycle. A 15 minute to 20 hour cycle requires a lot a lot longer recharge cycle, so a lot more recharge points and a much more expensive land area, and access from surrounding roads.

If a fast battery changeover can be invented, then you need a dedicated forklift safe zone free of people, circuit protection during the changeover, and an affordable cost, to cope with the smarties who come in for a battery swap whenever their commute/homecharge cars need a new battery.

https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/how-much-does-it-cost-to-replace-an-ev-battery-136621/

 

That truck on the photo above has a $120000 battery pack. You would hope they last a long time.

 

 

 

 

[kgwilson]

Battery and EV technology is improving at such a fast pace most people don't consider the massive change that there will be in only a few years and are looking to what there is right now or what was last year or earlier. For example the early Nissan Leaf had a range of about 115km. The latest model has a WLTP range of 450km with real driving range of about 385km. Teslas have over 600km of range now and the Zeekr-1 from Geely to be released next year will have well over 1000km of real driving range with the new CATL Qlin CTP battery. 

 

While everyone is worried about where all the lithium is going to come from other battery technologies are racing ahead. One example, the Sodium battery has until now been too heavy and had low energy density. Now a UK based company Faradion has the energy density of over 200W/KG approaching Lithium. And sodium is plentiful and cheap as it is 50% of salt & there are oceans of it.

 

There are numerous companies racing to produce the first electric commuter aircraft. Plenty of prototypes have already been tested or are under way. There are also sea gliders, the ground effect electric aircraft that fly at between 10 and 40 metres above the sea. 25 of the 12 seat version will be flying around the NZ coast from 2025 at speeds rivalling normal air travel & they don't need airports. A 100 seat version is expected to be operating by 2030 & will have a trans Tasman flight time the same as an A320 or 737.

[turboplanner]

45 minutes ago, Ian said:

The issues with swappable batteries is that you need to standardise on a battery unit, or subunit which is common across manufacturers. Swapable batteries work for fleets where there is standardisation and commonality, not with the current market. If Tesla had pulled it off a decade ago, given their first mover advantage they might have pulled it off however they gave up.

Given the current state/rate of development of batteries it would probably slow innovation in the area rather than enhance it.

 

What most people appear to be missing is that if we get to 80% EV the power demands on our grid are going to be about double what they were a decade ago, how's that going to work. Australia hasn't grown it's grid for a long time. The market models which optimise static capacity such as energy spot markets generally don't work to stimulate long term investments so you end up with suboptimal outcomes. Based upon the experience in other countries intermittent renewable power sources require equivalent gas peaking power generation to cover shortfalls, so essentially you're paying for 2 different types of generation and still burning fossil fuels. 

 

However the point that you're missing is that most people will refuel at home, the number of people travelling who require charging will only be a fraction of those who currently use service stations. Only on longer trips will peak demand occur, think queuing on long weekends at locations 4-6 hours out of Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne during holidays. Holiday rentals will also change, with those within range of the single charge commanding a premium.  Most consumer vehicles recharge in 20m not 20 hours from a fast charge point. If there's a car that requires 20hours I don't think many will sell.

Tesla S: 21 hours on a 7.5 kW/Hr outlet.

There will be some people who continue driving until there's nothing left, not understanding that if you do that the time from zero to full charge is exponentially longer.

At the other endo of the scale are >60 kW/Hr chargers just topping up

Chargers slow down when a battery is 80% full.

So a lot of choices to make.

Another place Level 2 8 hours to full charge

Charging experience in a Kia on long distance US trip: 18% to 100% 3 hours, 30 mile top up 3 hours, several outlets no fast chargers available.

Tesla stats: 3.7 kWH charge 27 hours, 7 kWH 15 hours, 22 kWH 4 hours

Tesla Model S Long Range 2019 15 hours

 

My intention isn't to provide design data for building an EV Service station, just pointing out that a lot more real estate will be needed. 

 

 

[kgwilson]

7 hours ago, BrendAn said:

 

these are running melbourne to sydney. they change the battery pack at each end.

Janus Electric have converted a number of prime movers to electric & patented the worlds first truck exchangeable battery in May 2021. Changeover takes about 15 minutes, far less that the stand down time require for a driver who has just arrived in Coffs from Sydney. The cost of conversion is cheaper that a diesel overhaul. They now have different models where there are 2 battery packs each side and under the cab rather than the clam shell front doors of the original.

[Old Koreelah]

Standardisation is a great idea, but it too often stops innovation dead in its tracks- the QWERTY keyboard is a classic example.

 

I’m no fan of the Li batteries used in current (a pun!) EVs. Too many fires. 

With so many promising battery technologies being developed I’ll sit on the fence a bit longer and stick to my diesels The higher price of diesel fuel has negated their economy advantage, but they don’t burn as easily.

[turboplanner]

31 minutes ago, BrendAn said:

That truck on the photo above has a $120000 battery pack. You would hope they last a long time.

 

 

 

 

7 to 10 years quoted by most manufacturers, so maybe competitive for linehaul operators depending of charging cost, but a hurdle for Metro.

[kgwilson]

22 minutes ago, Old Koreelah said:

Standardisation is a great idea, but it too often stops innovation dead in its tracks- the QWERTY keyboard is a classic example.

 

I’m no fan of the Li batteries used in current (a pun!) EVs. Too many fires. 

With so many promising battery technologies being developed I’ll sit on the fence a bit longer and stick to my diesels The higher price of diesel fuel has negated their economy advantage, but they don’t burn as easily.

Lithium Ion Ternery batteries are the type that can combust but the ratio compared to ICE power vehicles is tiny. LiFePo4 blade battery as installed in BYDs won't. They have a demo video of a fully charged blade battery & they drill holes in it with a steel bit & the battery still works afterwards.

 

As far as catching fire ICE vehicles are far more prone that ICE vehicles at 25.1 fires per 100,000 sales with 1529 fires per 100,000 for ICE vehicles. Hybrids though fare much worse at 3474 fires per 100,000 sales. Basically hybrids are the worst of both worlds.

https://insideevs.com/news/561549/study-evs-smallest-fire-risk/

[kgwilson]

41 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

Tesla S: 21 hours on a 7.5 kW/Hr outlet.

There will be some people who continue driving until there's nothing left, not understanding that if you do that the time from zero to full charge is exponentially longer.

At the other endo of the scale are >60 kW/Hr chargers just topping up

Chargers slow down when a battery is 80% full.

So a lot of choices to make.

Another place Level 2 8 hours to full charge

Charging experience in a Kia on long distance US trip: 18% to 100% 3 hours, 30 mile top up 3 hours, several outlets no fast chargers available.

Tesla stats: 3.7 kWH charge 27 hours, 7 kWH 15 hours, 22 kWH 4 hours

Tesla Model S Long Range 2019 15 hours

 

My intention isn't to provide design data for building an EV Service station, just pointing out that a lot more real estate will be needed. 

 

 

The standard for fast chargers is now 350 kW/Hr. These are all over China & 500 are being installed in NSW over the next 2 years.

 

Tesla has 35,000 superchargers around the world & Tesla owners can get a 275km charge in 15 minutes. You don't even need a credit card, just plug, in grab a coffee & in 15 minutes you are away.

[Ian]

1 hour ago, turboplanner said:

My intention isn't to provide design data for building an EV Service station, just pointing out that a lot more real estate will be needed. 

I get that more real estate is needed if everyone charges at a power station. My point was that significantly less space is needed because 95% of people will charge at home.

The exceptions are going to be around period of peak demand, ie public holidays, rental changeover etc. Interestingly these aren't going to be in cities. They'll be in regional areas.

1 hour ago, turboplanner said:

Tesla S: 21 hours on a 7.5 kW/Hr outlet.

The 7.2 kWh is generally considered a home charger not what you'd see in a commercial charging site. You might find this at a hotel where you leave the vehicle overnight but not at site offering vehicle "refueling" services. It's a bit like saying that your refuelling time in a car is the time taken to pump fuel from multiple jerry cans with a hand pump. Yes I've done it but its not a likely scenario.

 

From the graphic the cost is 1.2M over 3 years in fuel, are you saying that batteries are less cost effective for metro? Simply because fuel is a smaller part of overall costs in metro. Couldn't you simply rightsize for metro by having smaller battery packs?

With the removable batter packs, what ratio is required between the truck and batteries to maintain capacity or is this a piece of string question. A couple of large solar farms in the right spot along highways could cater to the demand? 

 

The difficult thing for government is going to be the loss in fuel taxes. At some point they're going to have to charge by the km or similar.

 

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Ian

[turboplanner]

23 minutes ago, Ian said:

I get that more real estate is needed if everyone charges at a power station. My point was that significantly less space is needed because 95% of people will charge at home.

The exceptions are going to be around period of peak demand, ie public holidays, rental changeover etc. Interestingly these aren't going to be in cities. They'll be in regional areas.

The 7.2 kWh is generally considered a home charger not what you'd see in a commercial charging site. You might find this at a hotel where you leave the vehicle overnight but not at site offering vehicle "refueling" services. It's a bit like saying that your refuelling time in a car is the time taken to pump fuel from multiple jerry cans with a hand pump. Yes I've done it but its not a likely scenario.

 

From the graphic the cost is 1.2M over 3 years in fuel, are you saying that batteries are less cost effective for metro? Simply because fuel is a smaller part of overall costs in metro. Couldn't you simply rightsize for metro by having smaller battery packs?

With the removable batter packs, what ratio is required between the truck and batteries to maintain capacity or is this a piece of string question. A couple of large solar farms in the right spot along highways could cater to the demand? 

 

The difficult thing for government is going to be the loss in fuel taxes. At some point they're going to have to charge by the km or similar.

 

 

The graphic I did there was total cost of life. For batteries some items come out, fuel comes out, engine maintenance comes out, air cleaners, exhaust come out. Etc then the electric items go in. A new schedule goes in etc and the bars change. So both ICE and EV are costed separately based on the way they operate and perform. Unit costing is done for every truck in the fleet, so if the route has a lot of upgrades that will be seen in the bars. For complex applications we follow the truck with compass, altimeter, stopwatch, and record the speedo over and over again. We can then use this data as a profile to predict the performance, fuel burn etc. I’ve had trucks shipped from Japan to the Engine bay stripped, modules fitted and into service in Australia. The application was on-site with top up after each mission. So no surprises and they are working well 17 years later. 

[tillmanr]

Ian, a friend in Victoria has to declare the distance that their EV travels each year for taxing purposes. Something like 2 cents per kilometre. 

[facthunter]

There's a thing in the wheels of Cars in NZ to do that. Road users should pay for ROADS. It's a no brainer and not that hard. Your odometer tells you when to do a service (in general). Nev

[kgwilson]

1 hour ago, facthunter said:

There's a thing in the wheels of Cars in NZ to do that. Road users should pay for ROADS. It's a no brainer and not that hard. Your odometer tells you when to do a service (in general). Nev

Hub meters are on all commercial diesels in NZ but not on cars & utes. Diesel is sold at the pump free of excise tax. Trucking companies pay based on the size and km travelled as reported from the hub meter. Car & Ute owners do an on line mileage return & every year the vehicle is checked when it is certified roadworthy & the mileage entered into the government system so there is a cross check if you try to cheat it. Petrol cars do not get checked till they are 5 years old as it is here. I am not sure about diesel cars. they may have to go in for a mileage check only.

[Old Koreelah]

3 hours ago, kgwilson said:

As far as catching fire ICE vehicles are far more prone that ICE vehicles at 25.1 fires per 100,000 sales with 1529 fires per 100,000 for ICE vehicles…

Kev you might edit that bit; ICE or EV?

[facthunter]

I hired a Prado diesel just before the Christchurch earthquake and It had the counters. Nev

[kgwilson]

Yeah too late for an edit. the second ICE should read EV & that should be than.

[kgwilson]

1 minute ago, facthunter said:

I hired a Prado diesel just before the Christchurch earthquake and It had the counters. Nev

Maybe rental cars have them too as they are business assets. May also be true for companies & other businesses.

[turboplanner]

2 hours ago, turboplanner said:

The graphic I did there was total cost of life. For batteries some items come out, fuel comes out, engine maintenance comes out, air cleaners, exhaust come out. Etc then the electric items go in. A new schedule goes in etc and the bars change. So both ICE and EV are costed separately based on the way they operate and perform. 

This is the same vehicle as the earlier graphic, but here around the city the Annual distance is much lower and a lot of the time the truck is operating under 80 km/hr, so there's no exponential power demand to push the wind out of the way.

 

Comparing this to an electric equivalent, the missing airpower demand will leave a lot more charge in the batteries, but the battery pack changeover cost will add a lot to operating costs because there's very little fuel cost to offset it.

[onetrack]

I keep hearing about how the cost of batteries and EV's is going to reduce. It hasn't, and any reduction in pricing is going to be 10-15 years out, not in 1 or 2 years.

EV's are still exorbitant in initial purchase pricing, and there's no saving whatsoever in going electric - in fact, the overall costs are vastly higher than any ICE vehicle.

No-one even mentions that the batteries are stuffed after 10 years and you're up for a new one, at massive cost - some $20K to $30K.

 

Would you buy a petrol or diesel car where the engine had to be totally replaced at huge cost, after just 10 years?

10 years is around 150,000 - 200,000kms for most car owners, most petrol and diesel engines last for 400,000kms today, and their overhaul cost is low.

And on top of that, no-one has mentioned the cost of battery disposal. I have little doubt that getting rid of an old EV battery will cost you dearly, just as trying to get rid of worn-out tyres costs dearly today.

[facthunter]

The Batteries HAVE to be recycled. The rest of the maintenance is  near zero compared with radiators exhausts, add blue,  transmission  servicing air cleaners and filters, Lube oils reduced wear on brakes Rising costs of DIESEL and the insecurity of reliance on overseas sources, Risk of turbo failures and reliance on driver treatment of all of this. Reliability has to be better overall.  Nev

[Ian]

1 hour ago, onetrack said:

I keep hearing about how the cost of batteries and EV's is going to reduce. It hasn't, and any reduction in pricing is going to be 10-15 years out, not in 1 or 2 years.

Onetrack you might have to suck it up in a couple of years if they make you start paying for your pollution. Generally there are people who embrace change, people who don't really care and can be nudged and then there's the group of recalcitrants for whom change is very upsetting, who eventually have to be dragged kicking and screaming into the new environment. On the bright side we appear to be moving pretty slowly down this path so you might get to play the "out of my cold dead hands" routine for a while yet. 🙂

The only reason that FF cars are cheap to run is the fact that they pollute without paying for the mess. If you have to pay for carbon capture, not so cheap. Batteries have been getting cheaper however the rate of this decline is slowing, when you need to replace your batteries in 10 years or so time, the costs would be essentially a fraction of their present day costs so hopefully not too bad for a present gen car.

 

From https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/09/the-story-of-cheaper-batteries-from-smartphones-to-teslas/

Edited November 15, 2022 by Ian

[kgwilson]

Teslas do not have a maintenance schedule as there is virtually nothing to maintain. They recommend checking the brake fluid and replacing aircon cabin & hepa filters every 2 - 3 years & rotating tyres every 10,000 km. Other EV brands have varying maintenance schedules.

 

Tesla set up a purpose built battery recycling plant in the USA but so far have not recycled any except some that got damaged. Batteries from the very early Teslas have been re-used in houses etc as they still have a lot of capacity left.

 

There was quite a furore when the distributor of the BYD ATTO 3 in Australia reduced the warranty provided to Chinese buyers and set an annual capped price service fee (there isn't one in China) higher than many ICE cars. They thought they could do this as demand far outstripped supply but a number of buyers cancelled their orders & they got pretty bad publicity. This is just commercial greed at work. I don't know if this has changed.

[facthunter]

Much as I've grown up with them and fixed and fiddled the Infernal Combustion Engine is not a nice thing particularly the reciprocating types which are still the most efficient. They  do try to self destruct. You don't want to put a stethoscope on one when it's working hard.  Nev

[turboplanner]

1 hour ago, onetrack said:

I keep hearing about how the cost of batteries and EV's is going to reduce. It hasn't, and any reduction in pricing is going to be 10-15 years out, not in 1 or 2 years.

EV's are still exorbitant in initial purchase pricing, and there's no saving whatsoever in going electric - in fact, the overall costs are vastly higher than any ICE vehicle.

No-one even mentions that the batteries are stuffed after 10 years and you're up for a new one, at massive cost - some $20K to $30K.

 

Would you buy a petrol or diesel car where the engine had to be totally replaced at huge cost, after just 10 years?

10 years is around 150,000 - 200,000kms for most car owners, most petrol and diesel engines last for 400,000kms today, and their overhaul cost is low.

And on top of that, no-one has mentioned the cost of battery disposal. I have little doubt that getting rid of an old EV battery will cost you dearly, just as trying to get rid of worn-out tyres costs dearly today.

Amazing the number of people who will tell you that "things always get cheaper" and "there'll be a break though". These are people who don't know what's in Weet Bix.

 

Currently the big issues seem to be.

With existing customers, the no-maintenance lie. Bearings were not going to wear out, suspensions would last forever, they'd never need a wheel alignment, wiper motors would no longer fail, switches would no longer fail, lights would last forever, brakes would never have to be serviced, and so on. Along with the stories is appears some of the sales outlets aren't set up for maintenance and stories of cars parked up for weeks are starting to emerge in the auto sections of papers some reporting that there are safety issues that need to be followed when doing service work around the battery area and so a new set of learning and procedures required. This has always been one of the key drivers of customers buying habits.

GM was one of the first car builders to discover that cars are bought by pocket capacity. Young people in their first jobs could just afford the A size car; when they got married and had kids they'd reached the point where they could buy the B size car; when they'd made it they could afford the C Size car. The EV industry is having a go selling the B customers the A cars and so on and the results are reflected in the latest FY Market share results in several countries around the world. In some countries Hybrids have been incorporated into the BEV market to try to hype up the country's CO2 performance. In some countries Hybrid is losing market share.

 

Of course the reason for trying EV in the first place was that they were zero emission.

Now there are lists of what's not zero emission from the Coal-fired power plants that charge them because renewables can't handle peak power, from the exotic materials not required on ICE, from the materials in the batteries, from the massive expension of mining to get those exotic materials, from the yet to be invented of exposing the dead batteries and so on. People are starting to want to see the affordable cars that were going to be emerging, and of course since they were the drivers of a CO2-free world, Zero emission cars.

 

 

 

 

 

[Thruster88]

Yes the only maintenance difference between a modern well design ICE car and the EV is the engine oil, filter, air cleaner and serpentine belt. EVs have cooling systems for the battery and gears, many ICE cars now have sealed for life transmissions. All the other stuff is the same.