Macron banning private jets

[facthunter]

Really? Nev

[octave]

i have come to this discussion late but I have a few points.

 

I don't think it is correct that Macron is talking about banning private jets but rather providing disincentive via the tax system.  Is France going to ban private jets completely?

 

 

"Private jets have been a source of outrage lately, as the city-hopping exploits of celebrities and billionaires come to light. A jet belonging to Steven Spielberg burned around €117,000 worth of fuel in the two months since June, according to flight tracking data."

 

 

"Despite urgent calls from campaigners, France is unlikely to impose a total ban on jets.

Government spokesman Olivier Véran reaffirmed today that it is "obviously not a question of banning them", given their important role in the economy. But “the French should not have to feel as if it’s always the same people who are being asked to make efforts".

"Heavy taxation and restrictions are the most likely measures to be introduced. Companies could also be forced to publish details on their use of corporate aircraft, for greater transparency."

 

 Even for those who do not accept the science of anthropogenic climate change or other pollutants surely the squandering of a finite resource is worthy of attention.

 

3 hours ago, onetrack said:

I keep hearing about how the cost of batteries and EV's is going to reduce.

I am pretty sure that the  price per KWh  lithium-ion batteries has  dropped substantially.     https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline  Happy to consider evidence to the contrary though.

 

There was some comment on recharge times for EVs.    The problem often with these debates is that both side tend to quote best or worst case scenarios.

 

To address the worst case scenario of charging a Tesla on a 3Kw charger over 20 hours.  For regular daily use the average user does not fill the battery full and then drive until it is empty. My son plugs his Tesla in when he gets home from work (not every day) He tries to keep the battery between 40% and 80%. His 7.5Kw smart charger does this during the cheap time overnight (good for him and good for the grid)   The power in Wellington NZ where he lives is on average 82.1% renewable  Energy in New Zealand 2022   We have done a road trip with him Auckland to wellington with one pleasant stop for lunch and a charge.

 

My next car will be EV when the time is right.   I produce from my rooftop solar about 2 Mwh more than I need and  I also would like a house battery but at the moment the figures dont quite stack up.  What would make sense is an EV with bidirectional charging  V2L of V2G.  This could both serve as transport and a house battery. Given my pattern of usage this would be the rational thing to do.   

 

When comparing EV to ICE is important to consider all the inputs from drilling for oil or mining lithium and cobalt etc. to the daily use and disposal/recycling  at end of life (note once you have burnt petrol it is gone for ever).    On my daily bike ride I ride past the refinery in Geelong.   It is interesting to note that on the facility there is a rather large sub station which I gather is to provide power for the process of turning crude oil into petrol. On top of that there is the fact that the crude oil comes from an ocean going tanker that has travelled a considerable distance (powered by fossil fuels.)  After processing the fuel is pumped into road tankers that distribute the petrol far and wide (driven by fossil fuels)

 

I will leave it to others to detail the path that leads to an EV but at least the raw materials can be reused unlike fuels that are burnt. 

I think a lot of animosity towards EVs is based on the idea that people believe they will be forced to buy an EV before they want to.  Car makers are still intending to manufacture ICE vehicles until the mid 2030s and then a mid 30s car will have a 10 year plus life although I suspect ICE cars will be for the wealthy enthusiasts. Also people sometimes have anxiety towards change. 

 

Circling back to exec jets, how about this.  We tax the Spielberg types to make their exorbitant "flea hop" trips and use that money to advance jet fuels to make them cleaner and more sustainable. Doesn't everyone want us to develop clean fuel that is not in limited supply.   Airlines are already using small amounts of biofuels Biofuels are Taking Off with the Airline Industry On Board

[Ian]

13 hours ago, Thruster88 said:

Yes the only maintenance difference between a modern well design ICE car and the EV is the engine oil, filter, air cleaner and serpentine belt. EVs have cooling systems for the battery and gears, many ICE cars now have sealed for life transmissions. All the other stuff is the same. 

There are actually real differences in the two types of vehicles which makes EV's more reliable.

 

The type of load and how power is delivered. Think of the maintenance schedule of a turbofan engine compared to a reciprocating engine. Yes both require maintenance however turbines have longer service intervals, higher lifetimes and lower failures. Similarly EV's components can be expected to have higher lifetimes

 

The other difference is where you put the engines, the only option for a large ICE is a single power plant centrally located. EVs can put the engine close to where power is needed so the drive chain is much shorter and less failure prone as there are fewer torsional and harmonic issues to deal with. Think of a truck bunnyhopping due to poorly applied power.

 

Another difference is the environment, ICE are high temperature chemical plants with corrosive gasses so you need to design around this environment. Yes bearings still fail in EVs but a significant number of bearing failures are due to contaminants and seal failure in hostile environments in ICE.

 

Yet another one which is ignored is the fact that electric engines can start under load. This removes an extremely stressful operation from their operating process.

[Ian]

12 hours ago, octave said:

I am pretty sure that the  price per KWh  lithium-ion batteries has  dropped substantially...................

................   Airlines are already using small amounts of biofuels Biofuels are Taking Off with the Airline Industry On Board

Pretty much agree with everything said and the sentiment behind it.

My son has been a big fan of EV's for years and I've gently teased him about my vehicles and their less than planet loving ways, however I can see the writing on the wall and ordered an EV for my wife. When my car is a few more years older I suspect it too will be replaced with an EV.  From a numbers and morality perspective its becoming more difficult to justify not doing it.

 

The story with planes is more nuanced however in the final analysis we need to target net zero emissions.

 

 

[turboplanner]

55 minutes ago, Ian said:

There are actually real differences in the two types of vehicles which makes EV's more reliable.

 

The type of load and how power is delivered. Think of the maintenance schedule of a turbofan engine compared to a reciprocating engine. Yes both require maintenance however turbines have longer service intervals, higher lifetimes and lower failures. Similarly EV's components can be expected to have higher lifetimes

 

The other difference is where you put the engines, the only option for a large ICE is a single power plant centrally located. EVs can put the engine close to where power is needed so the drive chain is much shorter and less failure prone as there are fewer torsional and harmonic issues to deal with. Think of a truck bunnyhopping due to poorly applied power.

 

Another difference is the environment, ICE are high temperature chemical plants with corrosive gasses so you need to design around this environment. Yes bearings still fail in EVs but a significant number of bearing failures are due to contaminants and seal failure in hostile environments in ICE.

 

Yet another one which is ignored is the fact that electric engines can start under load. This removes an extremely stressful operation from their operating process.

In my industry you'd be fired for a fairyland maintenance story like that.

 

Here's one car publication which gives some basic cost information: https://www.fleetmaintenance.com/equipment/battery-and-electrical/article/21250369/breakdown-of-ev-maintenance-expenses

 

HOWEVER< we wouldn't use that early information.

The charts I showeded earlier were compiled from actual Unit Costing records, i.e. the unit number or registration number of the truck FOR ITS LIFE.

So, without crossing into EV, if we are comparing one make with another, and one takes 60 minutes at $100/hour to get four covers off to service something, and another doesn't need any covers then over 50 services the first one costs $5000.00 more than the second.

In one application when comparing two makes of four cylinder trucks, engines needed to be replaced on one make but not on the other. The fleet cost difference was half a million dollars per year.

 

EV costs, like ICE costs will be recorded over time. Te reported difficulties and hazards working around the batteries will be recorded and costs, if motors burn out when overloaded trying to get out of bogs, thet will be recorded. If motors just quit as they do that will be recorded, if the car won't go one cold morning, that will be recoreded. All without emotion or hyperbole.

[onetrack]

The problem as I see it, is EV's are being pushed on us via a requirement for the lowering of emissions, and well ahead of technological developments in EV's and batteries, and we will wear a vast increase in costs personally, because of this "a**e-backwards" development process.

 

I like the idea of EV's in many respects -

 

1. Low fuel costs is a good feature.

2. No idling means low energy input, and no emissions whilst waiting around in traffic or other situations. A huge saving in wasted fuel right there.

3. Electric motors are simple and only have a minimum of working parts and power output comes from rotary motion, not the constant component stop-start, energy-sapping motion of ICE's.

4. An electric motor only draws the power required at any point in time, unlike an ICE which may be putting out 100HP when only 75HP is actually required.

5. Braking can be regenerative, which is far better than any ICE engine-powered vehicle, where there's large energy losses in braking.

 

But the downsides are -

 

1. The current cost of EV's is not economic to most buyers, and only the hardened and wealthy eco-warriors are buying them.

2. The fuel savings are not a massive number, over the life of a vehicle. You certainly wouldn't buy an EV on fuel savings alone.

3. The battery technology changes annually, with the potential that early EV buyers will end up with "obsolete" technology. God knows we have enough "obsolete" orphans in the ICE field. Already, one type of EV charging connector (CHAdeMO) has been deemed obsolete. So that's more cost to EV owners as they find they have to alter their charger cable, or purchase an entire new one at huge cost.

4. The weight of EV's is never mentioned. Weight takes energy to propel. While ICE-powered vehicle designers have shaved an average of 140kgs off the weight of the average car in the last 30 years, thanks to alloys and thinner, high tensile steel panels - EV's have arrived that weigh 50% more than the average ICE-engine vehicle, for a comparative size.

That enormous weight even demands special tyres for EV's. That massive weight means bearings and shafts must be bigger to carry the weight. I rarely see the carrying capacity of EV's mentioned - simple because their weight-carrying capacity is quite limited.

5. There are constant lingering concerns over recharging capability for EV's - particularly when the EV numbers become sizeable. This ranges from inadequate power station output requirements, right through to an excessive demand for limited number of chargers, and charging station points. There is no nation-wide charging network, unlike the service station network. We are continually promised a nationwide charging network, but the promises continually fail to deliver, thanks to the aforementioned restrictions.

6. The need for trained technicians to work on EV's. We currently have a major shortage of employees who have EV repair skills. This requires a major increase in electrical training, and electrical knowledge. With many EV's running high voltages (400V or more), there's a huge risk of electrocution if low-skill employees are let loose on EV's. To work on any other electrical network, you need a high level of electrical training and qualifications, and electricians are already in short supply.

7. Electrical equipment is prone to rapid degradation. Insulation gets weathered and goes hard. The heat of operation makes insulation fail over a period of time. You can buy a good-looking used welder or power tool that's only a few years old, but when you put it to work, it promptly arcs out, and you end up with a pile of scrap. EV's won't be immune from this problem, either.

 

Overall, I simply believe that EV and lightweight, high-energy battery development still has a long way to go, and the forecast times for the complete elimination of ICE power plants from our society is not something that will happen by some set arbitrary date, that is currently touted as being within 5 or 8 years.

Toyota also believe this is the case, and they cannot see any clear vision in their crystal ball, of what our energy sources and power units will look like by 2035.

[facthunter]

Toyota is not quite the company it was. They are having more problems than they used to. Not going electric when many are is definitely a gamble not an argument to use as an example of proof of anything. Nev

[turboplanner]

1 hour ago, facthunter said:

Toyota is not quite the company it was. They are having more problems than they used to. Not going electric when many are is definitely a gamble not an argument to use as an example of proof of anything. Nev

What did they do wrong?

 

ALL BEV market share for Australia for the same 12 months was 1.98%

 

[aro]

9 hours ago, turboplanner said:

EV costs, like ICE costs will be recorded over time. Te reported difficulties and hazards working around the batteries will be recorded and costs, if motors burn out when overloaded trying to get out of bogs, thet will be recorded. If motors just quit as they do that will be recorded, if the car won't go one cold morning, that will be recoreded.

Electric vehicles will be so much cheaper than ICE that no-one will be able to afford to run ICE trucks unless you absolutely can't use electric. There are electric motors all around us - they are so reliable we forget they are there. At least 10 in most cars I would guess. If you prefer bigger motors, check out the reliability of trains. Electronic controllers will prevent you from burning them out.

 

$100,000 for a battery reflects the cost to dig the materials out of the ground. But at the end of it's life, the battery still contains all the materials to make a $100,000 battery. By that time there should be large scale recycling, so the replacement cost will be more like the cost to break it down, separate the chemicals and make them into a new battery. That should be much cheaper than mining raw materials.

 

 

[BrendAn]

2 hours ago, facthunter said:

Toyota is not quite the company it was. They are having more problems than they used to. Not going electric when many are is definitely a gamble not an argument to use as an example of proof of anything. Nev

i disagree. hybrid camrys and prius have been around a fair while. 

 

[BrendAn]

Just now, aro said:

Electric vehicles will be so much cheaper than ICE that no-one will be able to afford to run ICE trucks unless you absolutely can't use electric. There are electric motors all around us - they are so reliable we forget they are there. At least 10 in most cars I would guess. If you prefer bigger motors, check out the reliability of trains. Electronic controllers will prevent you from burning them out.

 

$100,000 for a battery reflects the cost to dig the materials out of the ground. But at the end of it's life, the battery still contains all the materials to make a $100,000 battery. By that time there should be large scale recycling, so the replacement cost will be more like the cost to break it down, separate the chemicals and make them into a new battery. That should be much cheaper than mining raw materials.

 

 

another post spruiking how good electric will be , its never now.

[facthunter]

Toyota's have had some problems similar to what Volkswagen did and also with Particulate filters on some models has delayed the introduction of them. This is common knowledge in the Auto world In the Ev-ICE thing the hybrid has a bIt of both worlds and also  the  cost/ complexities of both.. Could be discussed if someone wishes. I don't personally consider it the answer for most people. The Prius has had its problems too.   Nev

[turboplanner]

9 minutes ago, facthunter said:

Toyota's have had some problems similar to what Volkswagen did and also with Particulate filters on some models has delayed the introduction of them. This is common knowledge in the Auto world In the Ev-ICE thing the hybrid has a bIt of both worlds and also  the  cost/ complexities of both.. Could be discussed if someone wishes. I don't personally consider it the answer for most people. The Prius has had its problems too.   Nev

Diesel particulate filters are a component, not a car so we can forget the story about Toyotas not being what they used to be on the grounds of theor crushing market share and the fact that the story was about parts.

 

In 2019 the Federal election focused on the Labor Party's electric car target of 50 % market share by 2030.

Kristina Keneally announced that Toyota would be introducing an electric Land Cruiser in 2022. It was quickly corrected to "Maybe" a hybrid pack from another model and there was an extended debate  which pushed the Manufacturers into rushed PR statements that they would be introducing hybrid models from the most expensive makes to the cheapest sh!tboxes in 2022.  We'll know how this went when the  Full Year 2022 Market shares come out late Jan early Feb, but you should have seen a lot of releases during the year.

 

I'm monitoring the World market shares on a regular basis, and in several countries Hygrids have peaked and dropped in market share compared to previous years. This has surprised me and I'm not sure of the reason. A cousin has one and has had several years good service out of it.

[facthunter]

Market share relates a lot to past performance and perceptions and not a reliable predictor of future performance, My original statement was not like  assured immediate doom in any way  and I stand by it.  The Nuclear power station matter in Japan Hit a lot of manufacturing  there.  Nev

[turboplanner]

39 minutes ago, aro said:

Electric vehicles will be so much cheaper than ICE that no-one will be able to afford to run ICE trucks unless you absolutely can't use electric.

When does that start?

39 minutes ago, aro said:

There are electric motors all around us - they are so reliable we forget they are there. At least 10 in most cars I would guess. If you prefer bigger motors, check out the reliability of trains. Electronic controllers will prevent you from burning them out.

I recent years I've replaced 3 starter motors, 2 alternators, 2 air compressor motors, 1 windscreen wiper motor, 1 window motor, and a Fan Motor which took out the head gasket of a perfectly good half life car engine.

 

I made it clear when I showed the Cost Centre Charts that R&M is not guessed about but reported as it happens. The history clears up some amazing BS stories about how good or bad a product is. 

39 minutes ago, aro said:

$100,000 for a battery reflects the cost to dig the materials out of the ground. But at the end of it's life, the battery still contains all the materials to make a $100,000 battery. By that time there should be large scale recycling, so the replacement cost will be more like the cost to break it down, separate the chemicals and make them into a new battery. That should be much cheaper than mining raw materials.

We're doing that now with our existing batteries; still paying full proce for new one though.

 

[kgwilson]

Toyotas debt has skyrocketed in the last year. Hybrids are the worst of both worlds. Toyota is failing to embrace the EV revolution and waiting for a miracle in hydrogen propulsion to happen. By 2035 there will be no more new ICE vehicles made. The largest car company in the world by market capitalisation is Tesla. BYD will cease manufacturing ICE vehicles by the end of this year. By all means whinge about what is the future. It won't make any difference. We either adapt or our tenure on the planet is very limited.

[turboplanner]

18 minutes ago, facthunter said:

Market share relates a lot to past performance and perceptions and not a reliable predictor of future performance, My original statement was not like  assured immediate doom in any way  and I stand by it.  The Nuclear power station matter in Japan Hit a lot of manufacturing  there.  Nev

Market share is collated by a neutral industry company every month, dissected down to the last detail supplied by each manufacturer. The collation is sent back to all manufacturers, but sensitive detail is not made available. The press usually get to see summaries montly drilling down to makes and models only. Of course companies plan from the results. I've been in many monthly meetings often from 6 am to 6 pm where we up the workload on postcodes where we are slipping adjust procing or specifications on some models, Plan Advertising Programmes for some States or districts, drop some models, develop other new models; it's very much like a big battle with each manufacturer adjusting its attack. The sale numbers are then measured daily, watching the movement compared with the previous month's market share.

 

 

The major manufacturing centre for Australian cars and trucks has been Thailand for decades.

[Ian]

13 hours ago, turboplanner said:

In my industry you'd be fired for a fairyland maintenance story like that.

Luckily I don't work in your industry however the demand is pretty good where I am. 😉

 

And the article you posted appears to back up what I stated, or possibly I expected people to be able to extrapolate high level concept into ongoing costs. But here are a few points from the article.

Quote

It will take time to see if real-world data validates expectations, but for now, experts tend to agree that the range is somewhere between 25 and 40% when comparing gasoline engines to electric powertrains.

The new Lightning Pro pickup would have a 40% maintenance cost reduction versus a F-150 with a 2.7L EcoBoost V6 engine.

......

A traditional vehicle’s structure is far more complex than an EV’s.The former has a wide range of components that need maintenance, while the latter has a simple structure of three main parts where most maintenance work is required. These parts include the engine, inverter, and onboard charger.

.....

Regenerative braking in EVs helps to save on brake maintenance expenses. That is about half of what would have been spent on maintaining the brakes of a conventionally fueled

And due to fewer servicing requirements, there should be less vehicle downtime.

....

Electric vehicles utilize a lower number of fluids that require maintenance than conventionally fueled vehicles.

 

The reason why an EV vehicles fluids last is that the environment is less polluting and corrosive.

The structure is simpler because things like the drive train is simpler.

 

 

[Ian]

5 hours ago, turboplanner said:

What did they do wrong?

 

ALL BEV market share for Australia for the same 12 months was 1.98%

Maybe they bet the farm on making fuel cell and hydrogen powered vehicles and the world has moved to BEV now they're reluctantly playing catch up. Maybe it's the fact that BEVs appear more competitive and cheaper than hydrid vehicles and have lower emissions. Maybe its because a number of their largest markets have set zero emission targets by 2030 and it doesn't align with their strategy.

https://thedriven.io/2021/12/15/toyota-joins-electric-race-with-16-new-bevs-and-massive-boost-to-sales-target/

Half their investment funds are still going towards hybrid vehicles and they're actively lobbying Government not to set zero emission targets.

 

Australia is a tiny market which is well behind the curve in terms of transition to low emission vehicles which is a legacy of a Government which couldn't see the writing on the wall. It's the same team that thought WA's reservation system for gas was a dumb idea, and for decades I voted for those clowns, more fool me.

 

Australia's a bit an ICE dumping ground at the moment and the lead times on BEV's are up around the 12 month mark.

 

[onetrack]

Quote

The Nuclear power station matter in Japan Hit a lot of manufacturing there.

Nev, it may come as a surprise to you that 40% of the nuclear power stations in Japan are currently in fully operational mode - including Fukushima. They have 10 reactors and all have been approved to return to operation by local govt, but 6 are still in the process of implementing safety measures and carrying out additional construction works.

 

I'd hazard a guess that the pandemic impacted manufacturing more severely than any other single factor.

 

Quote

Toyotas debt has skyrocketed in the last year.

Not quite correct. Toyota currently do have a lot of debt - US$186M to be precise. But they're far from bankrupt, they have US$224M in total company assets, and cash at hand - and their everyday manufacturing is still quite profitable.

Where they did incur that debt was from the GFC, when vehicles sales tanked - and from the pandemic, when sales tanked again. They also incurred major costs between 2009 and 20012, when they were dragged through the U.S. courts over warranty failures, and design failures such as the floormats that jammed accelerators. They paid out $48M in fines in the U.S. courts, and they had to recall 2.17M vehicles. Despite all that, they still dominate car markets around the world.

 

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by onetrack

[pmccarthy]

Should those be $B numbers?

[turboplanner]

4 hours ago, Ian said:

The reason why an EV vehicles fluids last is that the environment is less polluting and corrosive.

The EV does have brake fluid, but it's water absorbtion that requires regu;ar brake fluid maintenance and changeovers.

4 hours ago, Ian said:

The structure is simpler because things like the drive train is simpler.

The EV doesn't have a transmission, but ICE transmissions these days as someone mentioned are usually fully sealed and go the the crusher still in working order.

The EV doesn't have a differential which usually makes the tip, but in some cases leaks, fails or requires oil.

The EV doesn't have prop shafts, so no bearing maintenance and replacement.

 

Driveline resistance is part of the equation when deciding whether a vehicle suits an application, so wheel motors require less power to do the same job.

 

In an ICE vehicle the driveline resistance factor in the equation is usually around 0.86 compared with the road surface factor of 1.5 bitumen, 4% soft dirt, 10% loose sand.

So the EV benefits with some reduction in Net power required, but still has some of this factor in wheel bearings and tyres.

 

The EV puts its wheel motors in water and the firing line for stone damage, so there is maintenance there.

 

The EV still requires suspension maintenance, the models I've seen using exactly the same design as ICE which means a big maintenance cost over 100,00 km replacing all the rubbers and torsion bar blocks, and the car still starting to knock from as early as 40,000 km.

 

The EV does have wheels, so requires wheel bearing servicing.

 

and so on.

 

 

 

[Ian]

3 hours ago, turboplanner said:

The EV does have brake fluid, but it's water absorbtion that requires regu;ar brake fluid maintenance and changeovers.

Hi Turbs, I agree that maintenance remains a significant factor with all vehicles, even my pushbike requires regular work. Personally I think that BEVs suck in many way compared to the convenience of liquid fuels and ICE however times are a changing. However if someone cracks the solar fuel cell which efficiently makes butanol or other liquid fuel all bets are off. 

I think that Toyota will struggle for the same reason that numerous companies went under when the line shaft went out of fashion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_shaft

It took 30 or so years after electrical engines became commonly available before people realised that electrical engines enabled the factory layout to be tailored to the workflow rather than the other way around. Numerous companies didn't grasp the significance of the change and sank.

 

When you look at Tesla compared to a Toyota BEV the comparisons from a technology point of view are stark. Toyota remains a car company, buying technology components from third parties whereas the Tesla is an integrated whole and software and electronic are seen as core to the vehicle and done in house. When you sit in a Toyota you can see how the modular discrete electronics and associated software have come in a box and are plugged in. Many people might think that this is a subtle distinction however I think that overcoming this divide will be a decade or more struggle for Toyota. My gut feeling is that Toyota reliability engineering and build quality far exceed what Tesla can do however I still think that this philosophical divide will crush them. It's not that they can't adapt, from a management perspective they don't want to.

 

 

[Ian]

13 hours ago, turboplanner said:

I'm monitoring the World market shares on a regular basis, and in several countries Hygrids have peaked and dropped in market share compared to previous years. This has surprised me and I'm not sure of the reason. A cousin has one and has had several years good service out of it.

I think that the reason why is that hybrids are a bit of a camel, both electric and ICE so essentially they have higher build costs and maintenance costs. Going 100% electrical appear to be cheaper and more economical in terms of both upfront and ongoing costs.

13 hours ago, facthunter said:

The Nuclear power station matter in Japan Hit a lot of manufacturing  there.  Nev

I watched this a while ago and it made me do an about face on my views on nuclear. The presenter is a bit of bit of a green tree hugger type and was involved significantly in solar and wind projects. In this he digs into the out some interesting facts and it made me realise it was an area I didn't know much about.

 

 

[turboplanner]

49 minutes ago, Ian said:

Hi Turbs, I agree that maintenance remains a significant factor with all vehicles, even my pushbike requires regular work. Personally I think that BEVs suck in many way compared to the convenience of liquid fuels and ICE however times are a changing. However if someone cracks the solar fuel cell which efficiently makes butanol or other liquid fuel all bets are off. 

I think that Toyota will struggle for the same reason that numerous companies went under when the line shaft went out of fashion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_shaft

It took 30 or so years after electrical engines became commonly available before people realised that electrical engines enabled the factory layout to be tailored to the workflow rather than the other way around. Numerous companies didn't grasp the significance of the change and sank.

Line shaft is still used in many shearing sheds where 240 volt power is not available but the downshafts each have a 240 volt motor where it is.

 

In any generational shift there are early adopters and late adopters.

Sometimes the early adopters get a big financial edge, sometimes its the last adopters, sometimes neither.

International Harvester Coompany was one of the first adopters of robotics, then found in a massive market downturn that you can't lay off robots, you have to keep paying them off.  Australian early adopters of the supermarket concept, and fast food outlet went broke because the customers were still looking to be served, and so on.

 

The world's first electric car was designed in 1832 in Australia. We had fleets of electric buses in the 1950's and '60's. Electric Forklift trucks were being production-line built in Adelaide in the early 60s. Regenerative braking was invented by American Motors (Willys, Jeep, Hudson, Nash, Rambler) for their electric car in 1967. Peak Market Share in Australia was around the end of the 1960s with big fleets of electric bread vans and milk vans, operating the ideal applications; short back to base delivery runs, overnight/downtime charging. These were the early adopters.

 

EV has been given a lot of years. In the 80s its proponents were belting us with "People resisted shifting from the horse and cart to the automobile too" and "Costs will come down over time". By the late '90s the solar component was dropped and that saved around $100,000.00 but we still don't have the range and we still don't have the price.

 

49 minutes ago, Ian said:

When you look at Tesla compared to a Toyota BEV the comparisons from a technology point of view are stark. Toyota remains a car company, buying technology components from third parties whereas the Tesla is an integrated whole and software and electronic are seen as core to the vehicle and done in house. When you sit in a Toyota you can see how the modular discrete electronics and associated software have come in a box and are plugged in. Many people might think that this is a subtle distinction however I think that overcoming this divide will be a decade or more struggle for Toyota. My gut feeling is that Toyota reliability engineering and build quality far exceed what Tesla can do however I still think that this philosophical divide will crush them. It's not that they can't adapt, from a management perspective they don't want to.

I am on the record in a speech about the loss of Australia's vehicle manufacturing business as saying it is likely to come back in a modular plug and play configuration so don't knock that. Current Australian Service rates are well past $100.00/hr making plug and play a distinct advantage.

 

Tesla announced a power steering Recall this morning, so they are not immune from things going wrong, and there way of building the Tesla S produced on of the longest production delays in the Industry, and they've just announced they aren't going to be able to finish this year's production.   Wild gyrations like that have a terrible financial cost. I'm all for a seamless design, but when you're aiming for a 4 hour per car build a push and bang with a fist wins.