Macron banning private jets

[BrendAn]

i do not who is right or who is wrong in the climate debate but i do my bit. my commodore is only  6 lt when i could have got a 6.2 lt. my 58 volt electric mower needs a new battery so i put it away and bought a petrol powered mower because that is less polluting than making the new 58 volt battery.😀

[Ian]

1 hour ago, facthunter said:

It's possible that the small jet concept may involve some rather poor fuel used/pax/Km. Anyone got some figures on this? Generally if you can fill a plane  like the Airbus A 380 it seat Km costs are low. Nev

In terms of efficiency the old piston airliners were pretty good in their fuel consumption per passenger mile.

https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2010/09/piston-powered-aircraft-as-fuel-efficient-as-current-average-jet.html

 

[kgwilson]

19 minutes ago, BrendAn said:

and  of the 700 models of electric cars 600 are probably rubbish.

whats the carbon footprint like for those solar farms and electric car manufacturing.

i like toyotas idea of pursuing hydrogen technology at least it will be able to power aircraft. electric aircraft travel is a century away.

Well, No. CATL is the worlds biggest battery manufacturer & supplies batteries for Teslas and European EVs. Geely owns Volvo, Lotus, Polestar, Proton. MG as well as a number of Chinese brands like Zeekr the worlds first EV with 1000 km of real world range. The MG4 & 5 have been praised by the automotive reviewers worldwide. Then there is BYD. They have just released 2 models in Australia with a LiFePo4 blade battery. They sell around 115,000 electric cars a month in China, the number is going up every month. Chinese electric car and battery technology is the best in the world. That is why Elon Musk built a giant Tesla factory in China.

 

Whether you like it or not ICE powered vehicles are becoming extinct. None will be produced in Europe from 2035 if the planet manages to hang on that long. Companies like Ford & Toyota will disappear if they don't embrace the change. Hydrogen may become a great source of clean energy but keeping your eggs in that basket is fraught with massive risk

[BrendAn]

Just now, kgwilson said:

Well, No. CATL is the worlds biggest battery manufacturer & supplies batteries for Teslas and European EVs. Geely owns Volvo, Lotus, Polestar, Proton. MG as well as a number of Chinese brands like Zeekr the worlds first EV with 1000 km of real world range. The MG4 & 5 have been praised by the automotive reviewers worldwide. Then there is BYD. They have just released 2 models in Australia with a LiFePo4 blade battery. They sell around 115,000 electric cars a month in China, the number is going up every month. Chinese electric car and battery technology is the best in the world. That is why Elon Musk built a giant Tesla factory in China.

 

Whether you like it or not ICE powered vehicles are becoming extinct. None will be produced in Europe from 2035 if the planet manages to hang on that long. Companies like Ford & Toyota will disappear if they don't embrace the change. Hydrogen may become a great source of clean energy but keeping your eggs in that basket is fraught with massive risk

all good in the city but you will have to stick within range of charging stations. i saw a photo taken in the us somewhere a couple of weeks back of a charging station, only one outlet was working and 9 cars were waiting to charge at 40mins each. thats just not practical how do you tow a boat or van anywhere.

[BrendAn]

10 minutes ago, kgwilson said:

Well, No. CATL is the worlds biggest battery manufacturer & supplies batteries for Teslas and European EVs. Geely owns Volvo, Lotus, Polestar, Proton. MG as well as a number of Chinese brands like Zeekr the worlds first EV with 1000 km of real world range. The MG4 & 5 have been praised by the automotive reviewers worldwide. Then there is BYD. They have just released 2 models in Australia with a LiFePo4 blade battery. They sell around 115,000 electric cars a month in China, the number is going up every month. Chinese electric car and battery technology is the best in the world. That is why Elon Musk built a giant Tesla factory in China.

 

Whether you like it or not ICE powered vehicles are becoming extinct. None will be produced in Europe from 2035 if the planet manages to hang on that long. Companies like Ford & Toyota will disappear if they don't embrace the change. Hydrogen may become a great source of clean energy but keeping your eggs in that basket is fraught with massive risk

here in melbourne you can sign up to agl and get an mg car and powerbank included with your electricity bill, around 300 a week i think.

[kgwilson]

90% of EV owners charge overnight at home. The technology is still in its infancy. When ICE cars were invented there were no petrol stations. You had to buy fuel from a pharmacy. The newest high speed chargers can charge the LiFePo4 batteries from 0 to 80% in 5 minutes. That means you can charge the Zeekr-1 with 800km of range in 5 minutes far quicker than filling up with petrol. Towing capacity is far greater than with a huge petrol guzzler. There are plenty of new Utes etc coming on to the market now even one being built in Brisbane. Tesla will be introducing its Cyber truck in 2023. There are 1.5 million pre orders.

[Ian]

2 hours ago, turboplanner said:

It's a free world and anyone is free to do that, however for the rest of the world what she had to say at that presentation probably gives enough detail to do the other 30 or so hours reading to grasp the sequence and get the references.

It is a free world and you can believe whatever you want, however I believe in occam's razor as a problem solving tool. Look I'm not a big believer in theories where organisations like the UN and agenda 41 and special agencies have significant hidden agendas and move mysteriously behind the scenes. Burning fossil fuels and polluting the atmosphere was a problem waiting to happen. You can't put gigatons of stuff into the atmosphere and expect nothing to happen. Similarly dumping CFC's into the atmosphere disrupted the ozone layer. In the past dumping pollution into streams and rivers created problems which are still with us today. Ask the Japanese about mercury.

 

I believe things like politicians and people in position's of power taking bribes for personal advantage and vested parties corrupting processes for advantage. They happen and they're documented. Loonies tend to get together and try to influence things and when that fails they blow shit up and kill people. Just look at the current processes happening in Australia where christian groups are trying to use branch stacking to take over an established political party, but in essence they've making the party unelectable as moderates distance themselves from the fundis, demoncracy in action. Gambling related organisations lobby Governments to continue to allow problem gamblers to be their prey despite the obvious harm. The simple fact is that problem gamblers contribute the most, they give all their income and more. 

Essentially there are extremely powerful and well heeled groups in plain sight who will be significantly disadvantaged by the curtailment of fossil fuels. I'd be expecting them to be spending enormous sums to try to maintain the status quo and confuse simple souls for as long as possible. It worked for the tobacco industry so why not fossil fuels. 😉 Take a look at the Panama papers to see dishonest wealthy lying and engaging in fraud and cheating to keep their lucure.

Show me any peer reviewed or even a paper endorsed by a number of academics or news organisations which shows that this spectre is haunting our society and handing power to faceless men?

 

My world is pretty simple it's made up of money, power, issue motivated groups and individuals who like to create and do things and of course the mob who can be flushed in most directions. For my compass I use science and technology, other people use the vibe, whispers and happy thoughts.

 

[BrendAn]

29 minutes ago, kgwilson said:

90% of EV owners charge overnight at home. The technology is still in its infancy. When ICE cars were invented there were no petrol stations. You had to buy fuel from a pharmacy. The newest high speed chargers can charge the LiFePo4 batteries from 0 to 80% in 5 minutes. That means you can charge the Zeekr-1 with 800km of range in 5 minutes far quicker than filling up with petrol. Towing capacity is far greater than with a huge petrol guzzler. There are plenty of new Utes etc coming on to the market now even one being built in Brisbane. Tesla will be introducing its Cyber truck in 2023. There are 1.5 million pre orders.

i will believe it when i see it. i have been watching the u tube videos of electric utes towing trailers in the usa . not very impressive range at all.

[Ian]

For person transport batteries just work. Electric cars are faster and require less maintenance than their petrol and diesel brethren, they also cost significantly less to run. As battery costs decline, electric vehicles will get cheaper. 

For freight it's not so black and white, batteries wear out quickly and they eat into the carrying capacity of the vehicle. However for metro use they're probably still a good fit. Long haul will be using liquid fuels for some time. As costs of carbon capture are costed in some routes will be cheaper via electric rail.

For air transport batteries don't make any sense at all. The only options that I can see are liquid at room temperature fuels and nuclear. Nuclear not because it's a good thing to put in a plane but it does have zero emissions and provides effectively unlimited range. And planes have flown with reactors aboard.

[turboplanner]

38 minutes ago, Ian said:

It is a free world and you can believe whatever you want, however I believe in occam's razor as a problem solving tool. Look I'm not a big believer in theories where organisations like the UN and agenda 41 and special agencies have significant hidden agendas and move mysteriously behind the scenes. Burning fossil fuels and polluting the atmosphere was a problem waiting to happen. You can't put gigatons of stuff into the atmosphere and expect nothing to happen. Similarly dumping CFC's into the atmosphere disrupted the ozone layer. In the past dumping pollution into streams and rivers created problems which are still with us today. Ask the Japanese about mercury.

 

I believe things like politicians and people in position's of power taking bribes for personal advantage and vested parties corrupting processes for advantage. They happen and they're documented. Loonies tend to get together and try to influence things and when that fails they blow shit up and kill people. Just look at the current processes happening in Australia where christian groups are trying to use branch stacking to take over an established political party, but in essence they've making the party unelectable as moderates distance themselves from the fundis, demoncracy in action. Gambling related organisations lobby Governments to continue to allow problem gamblers to be their prey despite the obvious harm. The simple fact is that problem gamblers contribute the most, they give all their income and more. 

Essentially there are extremely powerful and well heeled groups in plain sight who will be significantly disadvantaged by the curtailment of fossil fuels. I'd be expecting them to be spending enormous sums to try to maintain the status quo and confuse simple souls for as long as possible. It worked for the tobacco industry so why not fossil fuels. 😉 Take a look at the Panama papers to see dishonest wealthy lying and engaging in fraud and cheating to keep their lucure.

Show me any peer reviewed or even a paper endorsed by a number of academics or news organisations which shows that this spectre is haunting our society and handing power to faceless men?

 

My world is pretty simple it's made up of money, power, issue motivated groups and individuals who like to create and do things and of course the mob who can be flushed in most directions. For my compass I use science and technology, other people use the vibe, whispers and happy thoughts.

 

There are about 2000 aircraft owners in RA, and I guess about 5000 in GA used for recreation (fun) only. Are you suggesting these people should just sit back and  write off their investments?

[turboplanner]

21 minutes ago, Ian said:

For person transport batteries just work. Electric cars are faster and require less maintenance than their petrol and diesel brethren, they also cost significantly less to run. As battery costs decline, electric vehicles will get cheaper. 

For freight it's not so black and white, batteries wear out quickly and they eat into the carrying capacity of the vehicle. However for metro use they're probably still a good fit. Long haul will be using liquid fuels for some time. As costs of carbon capture are costed in some routes will be cheaper via electric rail.

For air transport batteries don't make any sense at all. The only options that I can see are liquid at room temperature fuels and nuclear. Nuclear not because it's a good thing to put in a plane but it does have zero emissions and provides effectively unlimited range. And planes have flown with reactors aboard.

I've been in a strageic discussion just recently. With round 170 different truck variants multiplied by the number of makes then divide up into power demand applications, and then given that nearly 100% have to earn an income, some will work on BEV, some won't. It's a matter of physics, power demand = battery drain. There's a high startability demand, a high acceleration of load demand, a high wind power demand over up km/hr, and an a high power demand on dirt.

 

The Utes that BrendAn referred to towing a caravan, boat or trailer are only achieving about 100 km to full discharge, so a long time even on the high speed chargers. Trucks take that a further step. I was present at the drive-by certifcation of one 23 tonne new truck model, so know it worked but the programme was cancelled. In 1986 I was promised the battery breakthrough which would make BEV trucks feasible; the manufacturer hasn't stopped trying but hasn't made the breakthrough. When you get up to a five trailer road train operating on dirt in the outback the numbers just don't stack up at all. This introduces a new problem because if by some chance it became feasible to build a BEV B Double, the ICE base collatoral would be lost, and without that road train prime movers could not be built and without that Australia's beef industry would be crippled because today the market is geared to turnoffs hudreds of cattle at a time, so when they are ready for sale on a property the owner just books enough road trains to take the lot.

 

[Ian]

4 minutes ago, BrendAn said:

i will believe it when i see it. i have been watching the u tube videos of electric utes towing trailers in the usa . not very impressive range at all.

But the costs are way way less. For instance I drove my admittedly gas guzzling beast about 800km the other day and put about $200 of fuel into the atmosphere. My wife has an electric vehicle on order which would have cost about $50 in electricity or much less if charged from solar.

The maintenance costs are significantly less as well so overall I'm pretty happy with the tradeoff.

[BrendAn]

1 minute ago, Ian said:

But the costs are way way less. For instance I drove my admittedly gas guzzling beast about 800km the other day and put about $200 of fuel into the atmosphere. My wife has an electric vehicle on order which would have cost about $50 in electricity or much less if charged from solar.

The maintenance costs are significantly less as well so overall I'm pretty happy with the tradeoff.

Yes but I was talking about range. Even if you had an electric SUV. How could you go anywhere off the main highways. Ok if you go camping for a week. You might be able to put enough charge in from solar to get home. It's just not practical in the country. 

[BrendAn]

Don't get me wrong. I do like the idea but I think there is a long way to yet for Australian regional areas.

One car I did like was the plug in hybrid Mitsubishi outlander.  Best of both worlds. 

[Ian]

12 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

The Utes that BrendAn referred to towing a caravan, boat or trailer are only achieving about 100 km to full discharge, so a long time even on the high speed chargers. Trucks take that a further step. I was present at the drive-by certifcation of one 23 tonne new truck model, so know it worked but the programme was cancelled.

There's an article here https://www.carsguide.com.au/adventure/tesla-model-x-74243 where towing a caravan basically cuts the range of the vehicle in half. Maybe one day there'll be an option to put a battery pack in the caravan.

29 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

This introduces a new problem because if by some chance it became feasible to build a BEV B Double, the ICE base collatoral would be lost, and without that road train prime movers could not be built and without that Australia's beef industry would be crippled because today the market is geared to turnoffs hudreds of cattle at a time, so when they are ready for sale on a property the owner just books enough road trains to take the lot.

Maybe we'll see the return of drovers and the TSR opening up again.

But you're right in terms of segments of industry being disrupted as the scale of product lines are wound back, unfortunately there will be significant dislocation of some industries and with change comes winners and losers. The whole phasing out of this industry is going to be difficult and painful. However the alternatives will be much worse, so completely ignoring the issue, melting the antarctic icecap completely gives about 60m sea level rise, massive humanitarian causalities, dislocation and war on an unimaginable scale. An acidic ocean with no calcium carbonate based lifeforms would be very different, iron, currently largely insoluble in oceans becomes soluble and no longer limits growth leading to large hypoxic areas.

 

But is remains hard to predict winners and losers, for example coal's medium and long term future is pretty grim but the combination of the conflict in Ukraine have led to some spectacular prices in the near term.

[onetrack]

There's only one thing that will make EV's viable, and it is swappable EV batteries. No need to queue up for chargers or spend precious time looking for a charger - just drive into a swap station, swap the battery out in 2 mins, and head out again. The batteries can be charged overnight utilising off-peak power, instead of requiring huge recharge demand in the middle of the day.

 

Chinese companies have already started down this road, hopefully the trend will catch on. The fact that huge numbers of people now live in apartments makes the battery swap station idea even better.

 

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2022/08/you-can-swap-an-ev-battery-in-china-for-7/

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by onetrack

[Ian]

37 minutes ago, BrendAn said:

Yes but I was talking about range. Even if you had an electric SUV. How could you go anywhere off the main highways. Ok if you go camping for a week. You might be able to put enough charge in from solar to get home. It's just not practical in the country. 

The longest range Tesla has a range of 663km which is good for most regional areas (but not all). For instance I drive about 800km to visit family on a regular basis.

Charging from solar isn't going to get you home unless you stay out for a long time. For example with a Tesla Cybertruck going offroad with a 200kWh battery, 16 panels (a lot to carry) gives about 20kW/h per day so that's a 10 day charge with 16 panels that you can carry to deploy. A 100kW/h battery of a normal long range Tesla would give you 5 days between charges.  A portable grunty generator might make more sense to leave running overnight. https://www.carshtuff.com/post/can-you-charge-a-tesla-with-a-generator

It's kind of a DIY hybrid and probably a lot cheaper in the long term than an integrated one.

 

[Ian]

5 minutes ago, onetrack said:

There's only one thing that will make EV's viable, and it is swappable EV batteries. No need to queue up for chargers or spend precious time looking for a charger - just drive into a swap station, swap the battery out in 2 mins, and head out again. The batteries can be charged overnight utilising off-peak power, instead of requiring huge recharge demand in the middle of the day.

I'll bet you a beer that this doesn't happen. Tesla tried this a number of years ago and couldn't make it work well, and different cars have different battery sizes. Happy to be wrong as I'll buy myself one at the same time.

The differing battery size thing might just be a marketing gimmick to artificially make you pay significantly more though.

 

However we're a long way from the topic of flying things. I'm actually more interested in how restrictions on fossil fuels will impact aviation. During the oil shocks in the 70s and 80s propfans were on the radar of most jet engine manufacturers as no other technology comes close to providing the efficiency gains. NASA pushed the initial prototypes through against an aviation industry which was upfront in their desire not to use propellers which were seen as both old fashioned and noisy. But they did achieve about a 30% lower fuel burn. They kept the industry interested until the fuel price dropped.

 

It would be interesting to see how hard qantas is pushing their turboprops at the moment with high fuel prices, as they're more fuel efficient to run, but I think that their maintenance costs are higher. I suspect that they're wring the necks of the Q400s

 

[BrendAn]

1 hour ago, onetrack said:

There's only one thing that will make EV's viable, and it is swappable EV batteries. No need to queue up for chargers or spend precious time looking for a charger - just drive into a swap station, swap the battery out in 2 mins, and head out again. The batteries can be charged overnight utilising off-peak power, instead of requiring huge recharge demand in the middle of the day.

 

Chinese companies have already started down this road, hopefully the trend will catch on. The fact that huge numbers of people now live in apartments makes the battery swap station idea even better.

 

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2022/08/you-can-swap-an-ev-battery-in-china-for-7/

 

thats how forklifts have done it for years

[facthunter]

 And they don't stink the place out either,. Weight makes them more stable. Nev

[BrendAn]

a couple of years ago there was talk of passenger aircraft travelling on the edge of space which makes a london to sydney to trip a lot quicker. now just suppose one day this happens they would only pollute during climb out and be able to descend almost pollution free. a bit far fetched but so was aviation not that long ago.

[BrendAn]

 

these are running melbourne to sydney. they change the battery pack at each end.

Edited November 14, 2022 by BrendAn

[turboplanner]

7 hours ago, onetrack said:

There's only one thing that will make EV's viable, and it is swappable EV batteries. No need to queue up for chargers or spend precious time looking for a charger - just drive into a swap station, swap the battery out in 2 mins, and head out again. The batteries can be charged overnight utilising off-peak power, instead of requiring huge recharge demand in the middle of the day.

 

Chinese companies have already started down this road, hopefully the trend will catch on. The fact that huge numbers of people now live in apartments makes the battery swap station idea even better.

 

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2022/08/you-can-swap-an-ev-battery-in-china-for-7/

 

This is the current status in Australia by carsale,com.au as at July 2022.

The link is about battery changeover and its cost, but includes some of the issues before an on-road battey changeover network can be set up.

One of the issues EV has to conquer is infrastructure.

Land: Service stations for petrol/diesel have a land size and layout for perhaps a 5 minute refuel cycle. A 15 minute to 20 hour cycle requires a lot a lot longer recharge cycle, so a lot more recharge points and a much more expensive land area, and access from surrounding roads.

If a fast battery changeover can be invented, then you need a dedicated forklift safe zone free of people, circuit protection during the changeover, and an affordable cost, to cope with the smarties who come in for a battery swap whenever their commute/homecharge cars need a new battery.

https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/how-much-does-it-cost-to-replace-an-ev-battery-136621/

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by turboplanner

[Ian]

The issues with swappable batteries is that you need to standardise on a battery unit, or subunit which is common across manufacturers. Swapable batteries work for fleets where there is standardisation and commonality, not with the current market. If Tesla had pulled it off a decade ago, given their first mover advantage they might have pulled it off however they gave up.

Given the current state/rate of development of batteries it would probably slow innovation in the area rather than enhance it.

 

What most people appear to be missing is that if we get to 80% EV the power demands on our grid are going to be about double what they were a decade ago, how's that going to work. Australia hasn't grown it's grid for a long time. The market models which optimise static capacity such as energy spot markets generally don't work to stimulate long term investments so you end up with suboptimal outcomes. Based upon the experience in other countries intermittent renewable power sources require equivalent gas peaking power generation to cover shortfalls, so essentially you're paying for 2 different types of generation and still burning fossil fuels. 

 

3 hours ago, turboplanner said:

Land: Service stations for petrol/diesel have a land size and layout for perhaps a 5 minute refuel cycle. A 15 minute to 20 hour cycle requires a lot a lot longer recharge cycle, so a lot more recharge points and a much more expensive land area, and access from surrounding roads.

However the point that you're missing is that most people will refuel at home, the number of people travelling who require charging will only be a fraction of those who currently use service stations. Only on longer trips will peak demand occur, think queuing on long weekends at locations 4-6 hours out of Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne during holidays. Holiday rentals will also change, with those within range of the single charge commanding a premium.  Most consumer vehicles recharge in 20m not 20 hours from a fast charge point. If there's a car that requires 20hours I don't think many will sell.

[Ian]

If there's a ban on "Jets" does that mean that private Turboprops or Propfans are OK. We might see a new class of private transport. The fastest twin turboprop is Piaggio P.180 Avanti Evo according to https://aerocorner.com/blog/fastest-twin-turboprop-planes/#1-piaggio-p180-avanti-evo-462-mph