On predicting in flight collisions

[spacesailor]

I  was  a " hanger-on " to "Molly Briggs " ( champion trials rider ) just not quite Good-enough, to gain enough practice. 

spacesailor

[Red]

15 hours ago, Garfly said:

 

(Obviously, in Oz, we don't have the same freedoms they do in the US around low level ops.)

 

 

 

 

What are the differences?

[Garfly]

23 hours ago, Garfly said:

Trent Palmer's take on this issue is interesting, given his own run-ins with the FAA

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCwj9iKVUF4

 

(Obviously, in Oz, we don't have the same freedoms they do in the US around low level ops.)

 

7 hours ago, Red said:

What are the differences?

 

Generally (with exceptions) the not-below-500' rule applies in Australia (over sparsely populated areas). 

 

See VFRG  pp. 44-49

https://www.casa.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-02/visual-flight-rules-guide.pdf

 

Whereas flight below 500' is generally allowed in the US (the exceptions are outlined by Trent Palmer in the video.)

 

According to the FAA AIM:  "While 14 CFR Part 91.119 allows flight below 500 AGL when over sparsely populated areas or open water, such operations are very dangerous."

[johnm]

......... yes it was unusual how the legislators imposed a driving log and hours on those that were getting a license while they themselves were not subjected to it (of course that sequence was unavoidable)

 

all that system - the driving log - does is stimulate false entry to get those hours up ( ....... a bit like when you have a CPL and need just a few more hours to stand out shoulders above the rest)                       (and I appreciate not all do this)

[facthunter]

Not worth the risk. It's easy to check. I'm pretty sure there's a big penalty for falsifying records.  Nev

[Area-51]

.

Edited December 12 by Area-51

[Area-51]

So today was "Collision Avoidance Day"... Flying back from Redcliffe with both forward facing 30watt LED supernova lamps on, counted 4 seperate situations that could of ended badly; only one event received communication response and input from the other aircraft and joint mitigation of situation. The other three were all, visual, respond, and avoid... One event involved a 737 while crossing over from the end of the southern moreton lane to continue tracking coastal while on decent 2000' to 1000'; 737 tracking north over water levelled out at 1400'; yes a 737 loping along up the coast 5nm north of Porpoise Point, no radio calls. Traffic screen icon went red and indicated 100' horizontal separation and a perpendicular collision trajectory as visual was achieved; had to check my eyes three times to confirm that what i was looking at was a 737... Selected climb and diversion around behind and over the big plane... Then at Q1, 1nm off shore and 2000' a black mosquito VTOL thing appeared in front of me; no radio calls, no ADS-B Out; rolled left and flew further out to sea. Final episode was exciting. Called 10mile inbound to tyagarah, parachute plane opens communication for jumpers and coordinate timings. Called 3mile over mullumbimby. About 3 seconds after that i see a 172 heading directly for me head on in my front screen. Without hesitating, as i said out loud "there's an aircraft in my front screen" i rolled left; the 172 followed and rolled to their left immediately. It could of ended very badly. The always on supernova flight lights i use when flying probably saved the day.

 

After checking the adsb data on both aircraft the last episode was concerning. Both aircraft were on decent to 1500', heading in opposite directions at 105kt with avoidance actioned only 0.5nm horizontally apart; the math says 10sec to impact. What's concerning is within a 10min timeframe of conducting airwork and completing airwork the other aircraft provided no radio calls to make its presence or position known to aircraft entering the ctaf area. Secondly 10sec to impact while using internet traffic app with a 15sec latency resulted in no traffic proximity warning being presented on screen; so no attention drawn as my eyes were scanning outside.

 

Will be upgrading immediately to better "real time" ADSB in traffic hardware and additional position lighting.

 

Sausage factory training altitude band in the 127.55 ctaf seems to be 1500' to 2500'. So it would be prudent to pay extra visual scanning attention if transiting within or across the Lismore - Hastings Point corridor at these flight levels between 0900-1600 daily.

 

Some radio operators are just impossible to understand; it happens... The worst radio operators though are the ones that never operate the radio...

[Moneybox]

35 minutes ago, Area-51 said:

So today was "Collision Avoidance Day"... Flying back from Redcliffe with both forward facing 30watt LED supernova lamps on, counted 4 seperate situations that could of ended badly; only one event received communication response and input from the other aircraft and joint mitigation of situation. The other three were all, visual, respond, and avoid... One event involved a 737 while crossing over from the end of the southern moreton lane to continue tracking coastal while on decent 2000' to 1000'; 737 tracking north over water levelled out at 1400'; yes a 737 loping along up the coast 5nm north of Porpoise Point, no radio calls. Traffic screen icon went red and indicated 100' horizontal separation and a perpendicular collision trajectory as visual was achieved; had to check my eyes three times to confirm that what i was looking at was a 737... Selected climb and diversion around behind and over the big plane... Then at Q1, 1nm off shore and 2000' a black mosquito VTOL thing appeared in front of me; no radio calls, no ADS-B Out; rolled left and flew further out to sea. Final episode was exciting. Called 10mile inbound to tyagarah, parachute plane opens communication for jumpers and coordinate timings. Called 3mile over mullumbimby. About 3 seconds after that i see a 172 heading directly for me head on in my front screen. Without hesitating, as i said out loud "there's an aircraft in my front screen" i rolled left; the 172 followed and rolled to their left immediately. It could of ended very badly. The always on supernova flight lights i use when flying probably saved the day.

 

After checking the adsb data on both aircraft the last episode was concerning. Both aircraft were on decent to 1500', heading in opposite directions at 105kt with avoidance actioned only 0.5nm horizontally apart; the math says 10sec to impact. What's concerning is within a 10min timeframe of conducting airwork and completing airwork the other aircraft provided no radio calls to make its presence or position known to aircraft entering the ctaf area. Secondly 10sec to impact while using internet traffic app with a 15sec latency resulted in no traffic proximity warning being presented on screen; so no attention drawn as my eyes were scanning outside.

 

Will be upgrading immediately to better "real time" ADSB in traffic hardware and additional position lighting.

 

Sausage factory training altitude band in the 127.55 ctaf seems to be 1500' to 2500'. So it would be prudent to pay extra visual scanning attention if transiting within or across the Lismore - Hastings Point corridor at these flight levels between 0900-1600 daily.

 

Some radio operators are just impossible to understand; it happens... The worst radio operators though are the ones that never operate the radio...

 

Excuse my ignorance but aren't we taught to roll right to avoid impact?

[Area-51]

9 minutes ago, Moneybox said:

 

Excuse my ignorance but aren't we taught to roll right to avoid impact?

Yes, that is totally correct; your question is not ignorant in the slightest... In this situation the bias of the opposing aircraft was offset to the left so i elected to roll away from the approaching aircraft's path instead of across it while observing the other aircraft's response. It was not an extreme 60 or 70 degree roll. Both aircraft were visual on each other so a 30deg roll was sufficient to avoid each other. There was no time to be academic about the situation at hand; which could of still ended very badly. Unfortunately the cockpit recorder battery had gone flat about 4min earlier; which sucks because it is there to record adverse event occurrences such as these for review and debriefing. 

[Underwood]

31 minutes ago, Moneybox said:

 

Excuse my ignorance but aren't we taught to roll right to avoid impact?

This definately rates as one of those "should do" things that are best not blindly followed in any situation.

[Moneybox]

15 minutes ago, Underwood said:

This definately rates as one of those "should do" things that are best not blindly followed in any situation.

 

Yes but we're talking an emergency response. If one banks left and one does as he should and banks right it might not turn out too good for either of them.

 

Sorry I didn't see the previous explanation. 

Edited December 12 by Moneybox
Update

[turboplanner]

8 hours ago, Area-51 said:

So today was "Collision Avoidance Day"

If these three scenarios were Airproxes that would make an alleged 5 for the year and RAA would have a problem to fix, however:

 

One of them was a GA pilot bitching because an RA pilot didn't fly out to a fixed point in the circuit which was the best his low performance could do, and I wouldn't classify your experiences as airproxes.

 

You will certainly be getting a request to explain re the 737 if that one was, but in the lanes we are operating on visual beacons so we can fly very accurate tracks and the beacons are always on the same building. The tracks are much narrower than country pilots would be used to, so in my opinion the 737 pilot was comfortably settled on his RH side of the lane and he saw you in about the correct position on your RH side of the lane, so that would be operations normal to him.       

 

I spent some time a while back showing the choreography of a busy circuit and how to handle speed adjustments, jocky for position etc. Most of that is without radio calls. So if you were heading towards the parachute aircraft and not in close proximity it would be routine and without radio to slightly alter course away from the potential contact point. If it was closer than that you should put in an Airprox report in case the other pilot has.

 

There's been a lot of discussion on experimenting with various low cost devices in the last couple of years; and it may be that they start indicating a potential problem but be aware that you have a legal oblligation to stay within designated lanes and you will be close; even closer if some clown comes barrelling towards you flying by car rules, staying on the left of the lane.

 

For these close-in convergences the Visual Flight Rules Guide Right-of-way rules are on page 056 in the 2024 VFRG.

 

 

 

[Area-51]

Thanks. To be clear there was no event concern with the parachute plane. Skydive Aus' pilots at tyagarah present excellent use of the radio across 3 broadcast frequencies simultaneously and coordinate with other traffic during ops. The sausage factory pilots are an ever present and constant danger to be watched out for in the 127.55 ctaf. The worst aspect about a few of these aircraft is poor use of the radio coupled with no ADSB out being piloted, eyes fixed on an instrument panel, and instructor distracted away from whats going on outside.

 

The 737 sure looked comfortable and settled in. It was not moving for nobody. As explained the event took place south of the lane termination.

 

 

[turboplanner]

49 minutes ago, Area-51 said:

As explained the event took place south of the lane termination.

Maybe there's another map or sector or NOTAM in the files somewhere.

[spacesailor]

I often hear light aircraft flying to Bankstown. 

But , no radio call for Prospect .

On my. FRG 7 Yaesu receiver.

spacesailor

Edited December 13 by spacesailor
Missed a bit

[Moneybox]

It sounds like ADSB in/out needs to be mandatory asap for you guys. Here we just have to watch out for wedgetail eagles, pelicans and mini tornados.

[Area-51]

Mandatory "realtime" ADSB IN/OUT would assist the sausage factory pilots to notice the proximity of other aircraft while they are fixated on their ipad conducting their Defacto Instrument flying.

 

After 250hrs I am realising the same type of people that reverse the car and shear off the open drivers door with a bollard, or enter the underground parking with the tailgate fully open, or get on the nightly news showing their car perched up in a tree, or continue driving down the highway on a steel rim after the tire has long departed are also able to somehow get loose with an aircraft; there is just less of them; but they are still ever present and dangerous.

 

Maybe training aircraft should have a designated sqawk code that activates some kind of proximity alarm for other aircraft to know there is sausage about?

Edited December 13 by Area-51

[Moneybox]

55 minutes ago, Area-51 said:

Mandatory "realtime" ADSB IN/OUT would assist the sausage factory pilots to notice the proximity of other aircraft while they are fixated on their ipad conducting their Defacto Instrument flying.

 

After 250hrs I am realising the same type of people that reverse the car and shear off the open drivers door with a bollard, or enter the underground parking with the tailgate fully open, or get on the nightly news showing their car perched up in a tree, or continue driving down the highway on a steel rim after the tire has long departed are also able to somehow get loose with an aircraft; there is just less of them; but they are still ever present and dangerous.

 

Maybe training aircraft should have a designated sqawk code that activates some kind of proximity alarm for other aircraft to know there is sausage about?

 

"P" plate them...

 

I must admit I think I come under one of these categories. I drove 900km south in the bus towing the same car trailer that I brought the plane home on. I picked up the big steel cone from Bunbury before venturing further to Busselton, Donnybrook, Harvey, Waroona, Mandurah and then stopped off for a bit of shopping at the Spud Shed in Jandakot. From there I headed for the freeway but took the wrong turn 100m early. I realised as soon as I turned so I whipped into the first driveway on the right, slipped it into reverse on opposite lock and was stunned by the crunching noise from behind. I'd forgot about that trailer that had been tailing me for the past week and 1500km 😒

[facthunter]

TCAS is the best. It TELLS BOTH aircraft what to do. .  IF a Plane is not moving in your window. you will collide with it. If it's moving, turn in such a way as to make it move faster  across your screen. Nev